Collapsing Pakistan - How PM Modi is Triggering a Crisis

83% of Dubai's residents are foreign born.  To a varying degree this demographic profile plagues most rich Arab countries.  But what does this have to do with the collapse Pakistan?  

A great deal.  Read on. 

Very early in his tenure, PM Modi undertook several steps to engage key muslim nations across the middle east.  Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Iran to name a few.  To the impatient right winger, NaMo was following the same appeasement script embraced by his predecessors:  Genuflect at the alter of Arabs, with the misguided hope that it would translate into goodwill and votes with India's muslims. 

In reality, PM Modi and his security advisor Ajit Doval were working to a long term plan:  To isolate and strangulate Pakistan, economically, diplomatically and militarily.  

Most Indian Muslims working in the middle east will readily confess to the startling reality of Muslim unity - there's none.  Non-Arab Muslims are treated like dirt.  

Non-locals are not allowed to own property in their name and businesses must be launched in partnership with a local 'sponsor'.  The threat of deportation, hangs like the domiciles' sword over their heads (compare this to how legal residents are treated in western nations).  

On the flip side, Arabs are legitimately afraid of non-Arabs drowning them with shear numbers and taking over their lands.  

In a strange contradiction Islam helps establish the legitimate claim of non-Arabs over Arab lands.  If (as Islam preaches) there are no nations, and hence, no boundaries what prevents non-Arab muslims from laying claim to Arab countries.  Given enough numbers non-Arab muslims could legitimately claim leadership of Islam, side-lining and eventually subduing Arabs.  

It is this fear that (partly) drives Arabs into keeping non-Arabs at arms length, on a tight leash.  And it is this fear that Team Modi has exploited. 

Arabs have reason to fear Pakistanis.  A 200 million strong nation, built exclusively on the idea of Islam's supremacy, can and does claim a right to lead Muslims of the world. 

Arabs on the other hand view Pakistanis as a conquered people.  Former Hindus, conquered by the sword of Allah.  

PM Modi has played on these fears to encourage Arabs to employ more Indian Muslims in lieu of their Pakistani counterparts.  Crashing oil prices have led to massive layoffs.  Saudi citizens need jobs and are being forced to work for the first time in a generation.  

This economic slowdown has resulted in layoffs with Pakistanis being the first to be put on the chopping block. Arabs prefer the more docile and subservient Indian & Bangladeshi Muslims.

Remittances from NRP represent Pakistan's single largest source of foreign exchange.  Stagnating or dipping remittances puts a severe burden on Pakistan's ability to service foreign debt, pay for imports, etc. 

Pakistan's economy rests on 3 pillars: 

1. Remittances 
2. Foreign Aid 
3. Exports 

Exports have hit an all time low.  A combination of competition and political instability have kept foreign investment at bay.  

Massive incentives given by the Indian government to textile exporters has led a huge losses for their Pakistani counterparts. 

Textiles are Pakistan's single largest industry, employing millions and bringing in much needed foreign exchange. 

On other 'aid' front, Team NaMo has convinced Uncle Sam to delay if not completely eschew supporting a teetering Pakistani economy via loans, waivers, etc. . 

Even Pakistan's owner - China - has refused to offer a bail out package beyond the deeply flawed CPEC scam. 

With all three avenues squeezed, Pakistan is approach a tipping point.  Pakistan holds just enough Forex to pay for 2-3 months of imports. 

Under these conditions it will be forced to seek foreign bail out packages, dictated by foreign lenders - lenders who are controlled by the West. 

Conditions for bailout will definitely include ending support to all forms of terror and could extend to the elimination of their nuclear program. 

But most importantly, it will leave Pakistan with few easy options.  End support to terror and the Jihadi backlash will trigger a civil war. 

Accept more Chinese support and mortgage an even bigger slice of Pakistan to the Dragon. 

Accept American terms and forever end its dream of capturing Kashmir. 

But the most likely scenario is the dismemberment of Pakistan.  And that seems to be a common goal both Uncle Sam and PM Modi are working toward. 




 

2019 Wont be 2014 - Martyr Vs. Crusader

From 2002 through 2014, PM Modi was hounded by India's Evil political empire.  An honest man of impeccable personal integrity was targeted for one and one reason alone.  He refused to play ball.  He refused to be drafted into the evil ecosystem that had ruled and ruined India for 70 years. 

They tried everything, media hit jobs, outlandish allegations, internal sabotage, CBI and judiciary....but nothing worked.  In fact, every attack helped gain even more sympathy for the CM and raised his profile across India. 

 He was an honest man fighting for his god forsaken country. A man willing to be martyred in the battle for his long enslaved motherland. 

It worked spectacularly.  People handed PM Modi a massive mandate to go from being a Martyr to a Crusader. 

While PM Modi has imbibed the true meaning of his mandate he seems to have omitted a vital piece i.e. to launch a no holds barred crusade against that anti-India evil empire. 

People expected a parade of UPA ministers and even the Queen's clan to be dragged from courts to prison to bail petitions to media trials.....

 Rightly or wrongly Indians perceive the PM as an all powerful Superman.

In his desire to rise above the tu-tu-mai-mai  of politics PM Modi has decided to continue with his tried and tested strategy to play the Martyr i.e. use opposition's dirty tricks to gain public sympathy.  

This is a dangerous strategy.  Here's why. 

A  PM who can shake the very foundations of India's financial system with a a one-two punch has, it is fair to assume, the wherewithal to go after Sonia.  No matter how powerful she may appear. 

Certainly any action against Sonia comes with its own risks.  Chief among them being any political sympathy she may gain by playing the wronged widow. 

But those risks far outweigh facing the wrath of a disappointed voter who elected PM Modi to go after the looters aof Mother India.  

PM Modi has a choice to make - keep playing the Martyr or refashion himself as the Crusader and spend the next 18 months pursuing every piece of corruption against Sonia and her clones.

Failure to getting conclusive evidence against UPA's big guns will seriously dilute BJP's position vis-a-vis corruption and furnish Sonia with enough political room to rid herself of the taint. 

After all it was CM Modi who blunted every allegation of corruption thrown at him by pointing out that the all powerful central govt. had failed to produce an iota of evidence to prove their outlandish allegations.  

What would prevent Sonia from using the same argument in  2019?

 

Is it Time to Panic?

1. May 2019 is a 19 months away. What seemed like a mere formality is increasingly looking like an uphill task. 

2. BJP has sensed it, hence the deeply flawed strategy to induct Narayan Rane into Maharastra cabinet

3.  As explained in earlier posts, a major operation in POK is a real possibility.  But war (no matter how successful) may not help politically.  Do it too close to May 2019 and you're accused of using war as a political weapon.  Use it too early and the effect gets dissipated.

4. A section of Middle class is turning against NaMo with a vengeance.  

The loss of a dedicated vote bank may or may not be offset by new voters garnered via successful schemes such as Jan Dhan, Mudra, 24x7 Power.  

BJP has remained sanguine, comforted by a nonexistent opposition and a still born Maha Gaat Bandhan (MGB)

But middle class anger has created an 'opposition' of sorts - NOTA - None of the Above.  Even if it does not appear on the ballot, disgruntled BJP supporters are likely to express their opposition by not showing up on polling day.  

5. Corruption as a political Issue is dead - BJP killed it
Induction of Narayan Rane and the complete lack of progress on investigations into major scams has neutralized (partially if not fully) corruption as a potent political issue. 

Juxtaposed against DeMo where honest, hardworking (albeit tax evading) middle class Indians were forced to part with their hard earned wealth, the absence of any real action against Vadra and Co could prove particularly costly come election day.  

6. The curse of a massive mandate
Indians havent reached a level of sophistication where they can differentiate between powers held by central, state and local govts.  With a massive mandate they have super expectations from the super government they helped place in office. 

And their super expectations are seemingly insatiable.

There are simply no excuses for BJP to not deliver on its promises.

 7. Indian Myopia
Indians do not think beyond the narrow domains of their daily lives and their immediate circle of friends and family. 

Take for instance the falling for state after Indian state to rising tide of Islamism.  In any other country, states the size of West Bengal becoming Islamic strongholds would have engendered panic across the nation.  Not in India.  Indians as a group (there are a few exceptions) a just too myopic to see beyond their noses. 

This mindset creates a major political hurdle.  Great work done in India's hinterland - rural electrification for instance - will have no real impact on voter preferences in most cities. 

Without visible, tangible change in their daily lives, voters will not acknowledge the stellar work done by the Modi government. 

8. The rapid spread of the BJP 
At first glance we should be celebrating BJP's rapid spread.  It will only help in the years ahead but this success creates a problem in 2019.  With BJP in absolute control of both central and state governments, there's simply no excuse left to no deliver on its promises. 

The bridge collapse at Elphinstone is the canary in the coal mine.  BJP governments must take corrective actions.  All the fantastic work done in 3 years could get wiped out if BJP isnt reelected.  

Here are a few ideas:

1. Focus on the basics
There are several 'low hanging fruits' at the urban level.  De-congesting urban areas could yield immediate and tangible results. 
Every city should have a satellite township which has easy access to the city.  The resulting construction boom would trigger job and wealth creation. 

2. Chart an Urban Indian's daily life
What can the govt do to improve this?  Have both a short term and long term strategy - to be implemented in parallel.  For examplee.  No more hawkers on public streets could be part of the swach Bharat program. Hawkers could be identified and moved to specially built shopping zones.  Say a once a week 'Mela' at major public grounds.  With the long term goal being the construction of 'Hawker malls'.  

This would have a visible, tangible and immediate impact on lives of Indians without hurting the livelihood of hawkers. 

3. Education 
What is preventing the govt. from permitting private players from entering the primary education sector in a very big way.   If handled correctly, high quality institutions could be launched in a matter of months.  The fringe benefits alone justify this strategy and it a great deal of work to get it done. 

Example:  Maharashtra govt announced the opening up of higher education sector to private players in the early 1980s.  The first colleges launched were laughable.  One college had a lab constructed next to a cowshed. 

Today those same institutions are highly sophisticated institutions sort after by students from all across India and from foreign countries. 

4. Medical Tourism 
High costs are the primary challenge confronting the global health care industry.  The govt. can launch dedicated SEZs focused on health care.  The Jobs and Forex generation potential is unlimited. 
The ancillary economic and political benefits are staggering. 
 

Final piece of unsolicited (humble) advice:  Dont let 'Perfect' be the enemy of 'Good'.

 

Short Game Over Long Game - Has PM Modi his own Magic Mantra #Elphinston

I can claim with the least bit of exaggeration that I have watched every speech made by CM Modi.  Every speech that was posted on Youtube.  

His first reelection bit in 2007 was won on the basis of a corruption free sarkar which provided 24x7 power and implemented several small but targeted schemes with a level of efficiency seldom seen in India. 

One of these 'smaller' schemes was the building of 1 lakh plus check dams across Gujarat which helped put Gujarat on the map as an agricultural state. 

In addition urban Gujarat was helped by small schemes of its own.  CM Modi was fond of displaying his success by saying "Every where you go in Gujarat you will see signs of progress.  A bus stand here, a public bathroom there, a new school here...."  and so on and so forth.  

His Long game (24x7 Power, Investor summit, etc.) was strong even then, but it was supplemented by a very strong, locally focused short game.  

This short game resulted in locally focused, visible signs of progress.  It reinforced the CM's claims that he was working tirelessly to bring them progress. 

Clearly, a PM cannot get 'local' beyond a certain point.  Building a Foot-over-Bridge must be the responsibility of the local officials.  

But the nature of 2014's mandate is such that every failure will be pinned on  the PM.  The upside to this dynamic is that credit for every success will also land at his feet.  

Through design or by accident, 2019 may evolve into a contest, not between NDA and UPA or 2014 vs. 2019 but between BJP and BJP i.e. a referendum on its performance.  UPA's scams may be drowned in the media created noise of how BJP hasnt delivered on its big promises.

Indians have a very short memory and more importantly they see Govt. as govt. Trying to explain to them that an MP cannot solve local problems falls on deaf ears. 

A string of tragedies, most, if not all of which should be laid at the door step of previous Congress govts. are becoming closely associated with BJP's record of governance. 

A middle class struggling with GST and Demonitization are fertile breeding grounds for media's new campaign "BJP doesnt work".

Early feedback suggests this campaign is gaining traction even with BJP voters.  Left unaddressed it could snatch vital seats from the BJP. 

 BJP may feel that it could replace its die-hard, loyal middle class voters with their new found Dalit/MBC/OBC/Poor voters.  

But this segment is even more fickle than the middle class.  Given promises of bigger sops could trigger an electorally significant exodus towards a fresh faced UPA. 

The bottom line is this:  PM Modi must go back to his time as CM and introduce some of the 'short game' that made him unbeatable in Gujarat.  

Start with 'Garib Kalyan Mela'

GST, Demontization and 2019

It would seem that an almost relentless pounding from Sonia's evil ecosystem has finally found its mark.  If not on the bulls eye plate, on the wall from which said bull's eye is hanging. 

 The double whammy of Modi sarkar's operation clean up - Demo and GST - has India's middle and upper middle class reeling.  Prices have shot up.  High end Real estate markets in most major cities have crashed.  PM Modi's old enemies (and some new ones) have emerged from the wood work with the same old doomsday scenario. 

[Before I go any further, let me point out that there's a real danger of the Modi Sarkar being branded as 'arrogant' and the charge sticking.  An anti-middle class, 'suit boot ki sarkar'.  BJP cannot afford to lose its middle class stronghold.  One that has stood by it through thick and thin.  More on this later]

But like those previous predictions, this latest one may also prove to be off the mark.  There are two reasons for this: 

1. Modi Sarkar has plenty of time for both Demo and GST to play out and settle down. 

2. Narendra Damodardas Modi 

Allow me to take you down memory lane.  By 2006 I had become convinced that NaMo was the future.  I was scrutinizing his track record with a level of brutal honesty that I had never used for any other political leader.  It was a natural outcome of belonging to a generation betrayed by a string of 'Great Brown Hopes' - From Rajiv Gandhi to VP Singh and finally LK Advani. 

One of CM Modi's greatest achievements in his first full term as CM (From 2002 to 2007) was delivery 24x7 uninterrupted power to Gujarat and turning Gujarat Power board from a loss making entity to a financially healthy and self sustainable body. 

This was a stellar achievement in a country where even the capital city experienced major load shedding - that very Indian euphemism for extended power cuts. 

In the process of implementing his vision, CM Modi had imposed stringent penalties of power thieves.  A key segment in this group of power thieves were a section of farmers.  No political party had ever survived by confronting the Agri lobby.  Post independence Indian political history was littered with obituaries of leaders who had tried to tame this politically potent, electorally powerful group. 

CM Modi had not only stopped power theft but imposed stringent penalties and filed court cases against farmers for stealing power.  A group accustomed to never paying for power was being held accountable. Over 1 lakh farmers were in the dock. 

In mid 2007 Arun Jaitley (AJ) was appointed state incharge for Gujarat elections to be held in early December of the same year. 

News reports were gleefully predicting an electoral setback for CM Modi thanks to his tough stand on power thefts and confronting the agri lobby.  

Several credible news reports claimed that AJ made a passionate plea to CM Modi to rescind his orders, withdraw cases filed against farmers.   Failing which he risked losing the imminent, make or break election. 

NaMo refused to make any concessions.  Come what may. 

Now consider the scenario in 2007.  CM Modi had been painted as public enemy No. 1.  Even his own party men were keeping a distance from him.  A set back in 2007 would not only mean the end of his political career.  His enemies would not sit back and allow him to fade into the sunset.  They would come after him, with all means possible.  His assassination was a real possibility.  

Despite these odds NaMo stood firm and did not deviate from his path.  

I was both petrified and curious.  What the hell was this man thinking.  Electoral cost of announcing an amnesty was minimal.  The risk of not announcing one was unimaginable. 

When BJP pulled off an almost 2/3rds majority I was curious to find out how the Agri section had voted.  It took a few months, but around March 2008 post-election analysis threw up a pleasant surprise.  The very segments on which CM Modi had imposed a 'draconian' regulation had voted for him in unprecedented numbers. 

NaMo and his convictions had won.  

Demo and GST are likely to witness a similar outcome.  There's a very simple reason for this.  His personal integrity. 

Hun Khato Nathi, Khava Deto Nathi - I dont take or tolerate bribes. 

His clean, unblemished track record of preventing corruption creates an impregnable shield around him.  It allows him to take harsh measures because people perceive it as an honest attempt to fix India's ugly, exploitative system. 

Once the shock of GST dissipates and prices stabilize, even his most vocal critics will come round to the view that he has done the right thing. 

Take Real Estate for instance.  Only a very tiny fraction of Indians could afford to buy a house worth more than Rs. 10 lakhs.  Let that sink in.  You couldnt find a hut in Mumbai's slums for that amount. 

A million dollars would fetch you a spacious beach front condo in Miami.  In pre Demo Mumbai Rs. 6.7 crores would fetch you what?  A tiny apartment in Bandra, on noisy crowded street with access to schools with little space and exorbitant fees.  

Pre Demo India was an India built for the tiny minority of upper middle class.  A class that had circumvented the need to engage with the govt. apart from securing the necessary certificates and licenses.  Upper middle class India had insulated itself from India. 

You couldnt really blame them.  A corrupt, cruel political/bureaucratic system had little to offer this class.  Given the chance they had found ways around it.  

Private schools, tanker supplied water, access to colleges in America/Europe were just some of the luxuries this class could afford. 

And mind you, I belong to this class.  I know them like the back of my hand. 

Even the middle class aspires to this strata and a large number do achieve the upgrade within a decade. 

The resulting wealth gap is what brought NaMo to power.  As people absorb the importance and imperative nature of his moves, they will certainly come round to share his wisdom. 

18 months allows for this realization to sink in.  But these 18 months are crucial. 

PM Modi will have to take additional steps (which I'm certain he has in the pipeline) for the been fits of a common market to sink in. 

For instance, my trader friends have highlighted an important benefit of GST.  With agri goods moving more expeditiously, wastage is coming down which has translated into increased supply.  This should help stabilize prices of essential commodities. 

But more needs to be done.  The massive upgrade to India's road and power networks should be leveraged to attract private players such as FedEx and Deutche Post to build transportation hubs.  

GST makes a national transportation grid a real possibility.  

Further more, BJP needs to focus on addressing concerns related to its urban middle class vote.  One such area is Education.  A sensible policy which brings in private players would go a long way in increasing seats and upgrading existing govt schools. 

There's no reason why BJP cannot offer land and other incentives for private schools to be opened by Indians.  Foreign investment could be restricted to higher education.

The battle began on May 14th 2014.  BJP has neither won it nor lost it.  But as explained in previous posts, 220 seats is still a 'defeat' for the BJP. 

 

Narayan Rane and emergence of the new Opposition Voter

PM Modi's appeal rests on three pillars:  

1. His Performance
2. His humble antecedants
and above all 
3. His personal integrity 

Different segments of India's electorate find each (or a combination of the 3) of these qualities appealing to varying degrees. 

The stark contrast these qualities draw vis-a-vis his competitors provides an added potency to their appeal. 

In a cesspool of degenerate pimps and prestitutes, who would sell their own mothers for power, PM Modi shines like a beacon of hope and represents the best of Indian culture of that much maligned Bharatiya Sanskriti. 

As I have pointed out in earlier posts UPA's threshold of 'victory' is to hold BJP at or below 220 seats. 

It is now accepted wisdom that only a united opposition can stop the Modi Juggernaut.  

Two forces have come into play:  
1. The conventional coalescing of political parties and 
in the absence of political unity
2. Divide BJP's core Hindu vote
(More on #2 here - http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2017/09/the-plan-b-to-counter-pm-modi.html)

(there's a third more potent force, read on to learn what it is)

If the flirtation with Narayan Rane is any indication, it is the second factor which seems to have spooked BJP and Team Modi. 

Purely on paper, Rane would represent good candidate to counter that rising tide of Maratha asmita.  But in real electoral terms, that is where his usefulness ends.  Here's why he should be kept out of the party or even the NDA:

1. Narayan Rane is a mini version of Chidambaram/Pawar/Sonia 
2. He's not some Bihari politicians few have heard of outside his little burrow.  He has made his bones in Mumbai
3. Though he's a Maratha, his base is coastal Maharashtra not exactly a Maratha Power base.  A better alternative would be an older (so as not to hurt Fadnavis) Maratha leader from the sugar belt
4. His criminal past is well known and does not jive well with BJP's middle class constituency which is attracted to Modiji thanks to his clean, no nonsense track record 
5. His sons and he have no filter.  They will speak and act in a manner which will embarrass BJP and alienate a host of voters well outside Mumbai/Maharashtra
6. Narayan Rane flaunts his criminal wealth with such abandon that even Vadra looks up to him 

Induction of Narayan Rane brings little in terms of incremental electoral gains.  Further more his induction will do little to stem the tide of rising Maratha aspirations. 

But here's the biggest danger of Narayan Rane like flirtations.  

It will alienate BJP's core voters.  Perhaps Team Shah think that by delivering on key promises they have won the voter segment i.e. the poor and lower castes.  But these segments are driven by a survival instinct and could potentially shift loyalties if promised a bigger sop by the Gandhi parivar. 

Exhibit A:  BJP was forced to announce  a string of loan waivers despite delivering bijli, saadak, paani in record time. 

In the past I have recommended the 'efficient mai baap' strategy.  And continue to support it.  (http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2011/06/understanding-indian-electorate.html) 

But not at the cost of driving away BJP's core voters. 

This segment now has an alternative to the BJP - which is the 3rd force I alluded to earlier in this piece. 

And that is the option to stay home on election day.  

Induction of Narayan Rane will encourage this segment to register a protest vote by refusing to vote.  

It happened in 2004 and it could happen in 2019. 
 

The Plan B to Counter PM Modi

The Nitish switch to NDA laid to rest any hopes India's sickular empire had of mounting a coherent political challenge to PM Modi. That did not mean they have gave up.  Even before the Nitish treachery a Plan B was being tested.  It has since been activated - Left unchallenged it will not only confront BJP politically but will forever weaken India and balkanize her into multiple, pliable states.  

Read on.

For a couple of years now amateur (like yours truly) and professional analysts have observed, with growing dismay,  a rising tide of regional, linguistic and caste chauvinism across India. 

Patidars, Marathas, Jats, Tamils, Sikhs and now Tribals - each locally dominant group has raised a banner of revolt - ostensibly to demand their fair share, denied to them by an imaginary foe. 

An Imaginary foe i.e. India, Hinduism and the Brahmin (please note - I do not belong to any Brahmin caste or subcaste).

Where needed this template has been tweaked to include a local flavor.  Old school Anti-Hindi south Indian schisms are fanned with a new twist - Hinduism was never prevalent in South India. 

Twitter, Quora, FB and other social networks are blowing up with similar arguments. 

Marathas are being encouraged to support a new religion - Shiv Dharma - or Shivaji's Dharma - A casteless religion that opposes 'Brahminism'. 

Traditional Hinduism is being painted as nothing but 'Brahminism'.  These arent new arguments or new tactics.

What is new is the carefully orchestrated nationwide campaign to simultaneously tear Hindu unity apart. 

PM Modi's enemies have rightly diagnosed the factors which led to his astounding 2014 mandate.  Primary amongst these was Hindu Unity. 

2014 was the first time Hindus voted as a single ummah - Cutting across caste, regional, linguistic lines. Not since the rise of the Maratha confederacy had Hindus supported a Hindu ruler. 

What destroyed the Marathas was their failure to keep Hindus united.  The British cleverly exploited Hindu India's innate fault lines to methodically divide and destroy local opponents till they conquered and enslaved a continent sized country. 

India's enemies have made their own calculations.  Not only is it matter of their survival, the survival of their very ideology.  No other nation offers such a fertile ground to implant alien ideologies.  The return on investment is simply too lucrative to allow a devoted patriot PM to undo 1000 years of hard work.

2019 is shaping up to be a battle of battles, a war to end all socio-political wars. 

No price is too high and India's enemies are pulling out the stops to stop Narendra Damodardas Modi.  

BJP's play-by-the-rule war machine is being challenged by an international conspiracy rooted in asymmetrical socio-political warfare. 

The groups being selected as pawns to undermine Mother India are her most prominent defenders - Sikhs, Marathas, Jats, Tamils, Patels..... all groups who have contributed to keeping her whole.  Helping her survive. 

PM Modi represents an existential challenge to forces who saw Sonia as Queen who would recolonize India.  All their tricks have failed.  Given a few more years, the Modi govt. will place India at the heart of the world's growth engine a position currently held by China. 

The consequent economic growth would wipe out poverty and with it the raison d'etre for foreign beliefs, doctrines, cultures. The consequent economic miracle would bring mercantile stakeholders who would act as a counter weight to ideological soul harvesters.

A confident India would regain its preeminent position within the community of nations. 

2019 is their last chance. 2019 is our last chance. We must prepare or perish.


 

Stopping BJP by a Thousand Cuts

For several years now political junkies (yours truly included) have fretted over biggest question facing supporters of PM Modi - How will they stop the BJP in 2019? 

Conventional political wisdom offered  one answer:  The MahaGhatbandhan (MGB).

But as the MGB has fizzled out two alternatives have emerged.  Alternatives, BJP and Team NaMo can ignore at their own peril. 

1. Non political actors/situations
2. Dilution of PM Modi's greatest asset - 'Personal Integrity' - by association

NOTE:  As I have said in previous posts for BJP to lose, the opposition doesnt need to win.  Restricting BJP to 220 would allow Congress and its clones to survive.
 
Non-Political Actors/Situations:

 Anti-India forces have set in motion a wide range of strategies hoping one of them will work.  The primary strategy is focused on dividing Indian/Hindu society. 

It's also the one strategy which has found traction.  

The Modi govt. has delivered corruption free 'mai-baap' governance.  In doing so it has hurt traditional BJP vote banks and more importantly opened up space to fuel Upper caste grievance mongering. 

Jats, Patels, Marathas....all have one thing in common - dominant castes demanding reservations. 

These groups fit into a large strategy to expose India's fault lines and trigger a series of local conflicts. 

Young Tamilians, for instance, are being indoctrinated with the notion that Tamil were never Indians/Hindus.  They had a separate identity.  The old AIT has been polished and reintroduced with some updates. 

It would be a far cry to expect all these strategies to bear fruit.  But that may not be the intention of the evil empire driving these anti-India forces. 

The trick may be to create enough localized discontent to turn what is likely to be another 'Presidential' election into a sum of several localized electoral contests. 

BJP lost 2004 partly due to local issues overwhelming a nationalized 'India Shining' campaign. 

Left unaddressed, these local bush fires could grow into uncontrollable forest fires and consume BJP's hopes - one local election at a time. 

Demands for reservations cannot be tackled one group at a time.  And conceding reservations beyond the SC mandated 50% would spell disaster for the govt. 

Instead BJP needs to leverage India's lethargic legal system to deflect these demands and buy time so as delay these agitations beyond 2019.  

One way to do it is to refer the demands to a specially constituted bench of retired SC judges.  The bench should be constituted around mid-2018.  But the suggestion should be made around late 2017.  This timeline would delay a judgement well beyond 2019 and neutralize the political facet of these demands. 


Dilution of PM Modi's greatest asset - 'Personal Integrity'

May be this rant is a bit premature.  But news of India's Most Corrupt joining the BJP keeps trickling in.  From Narayan Rane to now Sharad Pawar. 

Granted, having Pawar in the NDA camp would neutralize any chance of a viable MGB coming to fruition.  But the cost is prohibitive.  It undermines and weakens the one quality that has served as PM Modi impregnable shield from his first term as CM of Gujarat. 

Furthermore, it dilutes BJP's anti-corruption plank and brings BJP-Congress closer to parity on the critical issue of clean governance. 

It would be easy for the Congress and its presstitutes to resort to that old stratagem  - Congress-BJP-Same-Same. 

Successive election victories may have lulled BJP into political hubris.  2019 will be the biggest political battle (perhaps) the world has ever seen.  

It will be a no-holds-barred war.  By taking on friends like Rane-Pawar, BJP wont need enemies. 

China's Conundrum from OBOR to South China Sea - Explained

Picture this - China has reached the end of its economic boom cycle.  Transition to a truly market driven economy is proving to be a distant dream.  Unemployment/Under-employment could lead to social unrest carrying with it the real threat of a 'Beijing Spring'. 


Question:  What would China do?
Answer:  Colonize 

Chinese economy is too big to fail.  Even a minor speed bump could spook international markets.

But something has certainly spooked the Mandarins of the Communist Party of China (CPC).  Hitler lost his war cause he opened too many fronts.  China is doing the same.  The usually cautious and deliberate Chinese leadership is flailing, throwing everything and the kitchen sink at the global wall, hoping something will stick.

Pakistan and North Korea are the only real 'allies' China can count on.  Their status as International pariahs has left the two dysfunctional nations with few options.  Even a country like Australia whose economy is dependent on China's insatiable appetite for Australia's natural resources is openly maneuvering to counter China. 

But within China's ham handedness lies a strategy.  One driven by 
a) a well known desire to replace Uncle Sam as the preeminent super power 
b) fear

China is getting hit by a double whammy - rising unemployment and an aging population.  The one child policy has created a social dynamic which a much smaller and more prosperous Japan has struggled with for years i.e. Younger couples having to support and care for up to 6-8 parents + grandparents. 


China lacks the resources to create a social safety net that can support a large restless population.  As the Great Recession hit its primary export markets in 2008, China opted for the only solution at its disposal.  A massive Quantitative Easing program which as a percentage of GDP would be the largest program launched by any nation.  

The debt was channeled through local govts. to state owned enterprises to keep the wheels turning i.e. Keep workers employed.  One estimate suggests that 70% of Chinese companies are state owned.  While the Alibabas of the world garner attention and provide Beijing with a veneer of free market, the CPC through the Chinese govt. controls most of China's companies and its economy. 

China's massive borrowing binge resulted in the creation of Ghost cities and industrial over capacity. Local govts. were given quarterly targets and provided with unlimited funds to achieve them.  It did not matter that there were no takers for the 'products' produced by these efforts.  Growth for growth sake was the only objective.  It kept citizens employed and a restive population in check.   

A normal free market economy would allow (even encourage) failing enterprises to fail and the natural process of creative destruction to play itself out.  Using the resulting reallocation of resources to create new profitable enterprises. 

China's command/control economy does not allow such a restructuring to occur.  It is simply fraught with too much risk.  In democracies disgruntled citizens/laid off workers take to the streets and replace their rulers. 

China has no such outlet.  They are on a treadmill and must continue running just to stay in place. 

Additionally, a free society is a prerequisite to creating an innovation driven economy.  If the thought of 5 strangers assembling in a friend's garage threatens Beijing, the chances of an Apple or Microsoft emerging out of China are slim to none.  Is it any surprise that most Chinese goods are knock-offs of ideas generated in other parts of the world. 


Enter Colonialism.  

As with European Colonial conquests, China is sending out missions to explore and occupy small patches of space within target countries.  No third world country is safe.  

The strategy is as follows: 

1. Offer financial assistance as part of a grand program - One Belt One Road
2. Co-opt local leadership with a combination of shiny infrastructure monuments and corruption 
3. Inflate the bill to bribe aforementioned local rulers 
4. Flip ratio of 'Investment to Loan' and impose the loans at unsustainable interest rates 
5. Draw recipient nations into a debt trap
6. Allow only Chinese state owned companies to implement projects 
7. Import Chinese labor to execute the project 
8. Convert project workers into settlers 
9. Use debt burden to subdue any local resistance to Chinese settlers 

This strategy kills many birds with one stone. 

1. Expands China's unviable 'Ghose city' strategy to an International scale 
2. Gets foreign govts to finance China's Colonial expansion 
3. Migrates Chinese labor from the mainland to foreign shores easing some of the local social pressures
4. Begins the creation of local Chinese assets available to do China's bidding in the future

China's desperate attempts to simultaneously intimidate all its neighbors points to several short comings of this strategy. 

1. China's own debt may be much higher than estimates suggest.  Limiting its room to maneuver out of any economic crisis
2. Social unrest may be at a critical inflection point 
3. Time may be running out 
4. OBOR could be the only way for the CPC to stave off impending doom
5. With nations (latest being Kenya) wising up to China's imperial ambitions, China may be running out of runway 

Ideally, a confident, secure China would have waited for an aging, fatigued West to wear itself out.  With Islamism eviscerating western societies, another decade would leave China with easy pickings.  The rush to implement OBOR suggests Chinese leadership has seen something we havent. 


OBOR is CPC's attempt at self preservation. It may already be too late.

Why Hinduism Shouldnt Sacrifice Its Soul as It Battles for Survival

The world is turning more liberal.  Adopting practices which seem startlingly similar to a very Hindu way of life.  From Dietary practices (Americans consume 19% less meat than they did a decade ago) and environmentalism to a spiritualism that accepts and celebrates many paths to the same god,  the world is adopting virtues deeply embedded and/or originating within Hinduism.  

As these trends gather momentum, traditionally strong religiopolitical  forces have accelerated their game plan to replenish their depleting ranks.  Western Europe is now a majority atheist region.  America is heading in that direction.  Couple these long term trends with aging populations in both regions and you have a dreaded confluence of factors which are undermining Western religions/doctrines.  

Not only are people forgoing traditional religions, they are increasingly attracted to a DIY, laissez-faire spirituality which is the very bedrock of Eastern religions. 

Islam is facing a crisis of its own.  And Communism is little more than a foot note in history. 

This is not to suggest that Hinduism is a pristine, flawless doctrine.  But its open-source structure is precisely what the world is turning too.  

Show me another religion which worships a Muslim Fakir and turns his shrine into the 3rd largest pilgrimage destination. 

What is at once its achilles heel (its tolerant openness and acceptance of other religions as a valid path to nirvana) is also its greatest strength. 

It took horrors of the Holocaust to bring Europe face-to-face with its evil, exclusivist doctrines, and question centuries old religious beliefs.

It may be wishful thinking on my part but a similar awakening is under way within Islam.  It may take a near death event to push Muslims to experience their own catharsis and come around to the social tolerance that has gained ground even in communist China. 

But as these evolutions play out, Hinduism cannot sacrifice its core, its greatest asset i.e. Sarva Dharma Samabhav 

Surely Hindus must arm and fight an eye for an eye.  But in doing so they must not be seen as a poor caricature of the Abrahamic cousins.  

Instead of defending violence over Gau raksha, how about addressing the flaws that plague Hindus.  Where, for instance, we give more to Temples than to charitable causes and then decry the govt as it fritters away temple wealth.  

If every Hindu focuses on one small act/deed/thought that lies at the core of Hinduism - tolerance, respect for nature, the oneness of the Universe....we will be prepared to welcome the world when it finally comes to its senses. 

China's Doklam Desperation Explained - The Future Treaty of Gilgit-Baltistan

Ever since China instigated the Doklam impasse a series of statements and actions coming out of Beijing have suggested an increasing sense of desperation creeping into China's behavior vis-a-vis India and the larger AfPak region. 

The alacrity  with which China has scaled its statements and diplomatic actions insinuates international steaks that go far beyond controlling India. 

What may be at stake is the very perpetuation of CCP's economic model and in turn its political hold over the country. 

The Belt Road Initiative (BRI) / OBOR 

China's economic model rests on two pillars - Exports and Infrastructure spending.  Both these pillars have floundered.  Exports i.e. Labor arbitrage have been hit by increasing competition coming from cheaper labor markets such as Vietnam, India, Bangladesh, etc.  On the other hand China's spending spree since 2008's financial crisis has burdened its banks with bone crushing debt. 

As a percentage of GDP, China implemented the biggest Quantitative Easing program in the world.  It was the only way it could sustain the much needed 6-7 % growth rate. 

Chinese workers (unlike their Indian counterparts) dont take kindly to being laid off.  Incidents of middle managers being lynched by angry workers have become routine so have worker suicides at brand name companies such as Foxconn. 

China's communist mandarins fear democracy/social unrest and its potential to terminally disrupt their control over the country. 

 Though China's QE helped keep China's workers employed and pliant it resulted in ghost cities, malls and other superfluous assets.  
These ghost cities have never been occupied and are seen as white elephants - decaying and serving as a reminder to the excesses of a growth-addicted Communist party. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uo0tvY_4PlM

China's corporate sector is an undecipherable maze of companies partially or completely owned by the government.  The objective of all these entities is a singular focus on growth.  By any means possible. 

Local governments are given annual goals to meet growth objective with a wide mandate to borrow beg or steal to achieve their goals. 

Such an arrangement not only breeds corruption but perpetuates a ecosystem which must be fed with additional opportunities just so it does not collapse. 

The resulting excesses lead to a misallocation of resources with both corporate and govt. entities straddled with bone crushing debt. 

After 9 years of unbridled spending China is now facing a debt crisis of unprecedented proportions.  China is shielded from a debt crisis thanks to very high forex reserves and size as the world's second largest economy. 

China is - to put it simply - too big to fail. 

But the crisis facing CCP is of a different kind.  Not of outright economic collapse (which is unlikely) but of a slowing economy triggering a domino effect which leads to social turmoil. 

BRI is a grand scheme to get foreign countries to fuel the growth/construction of Chinese assets financed by Chinese credit and built by Chinese workers. 

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is its first and most visible pilot project.  China has tested this model in Turkemistan and Sri Lanka.  Both countries have had to surrender land and assets to China in lieu of the massive debt they have been straddled with. 

Voices in Pakistan (and elsewhere) have started uttering the dreaded 'C' word - Colonialism. 

Jamaica will be China's first colony - 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qBCRHcLH6NM

As this video indicates the similarities are startling.  A ruling elite paid off by the Chinese govt. and co-opted to do China's bidding to convince their citizens to support and celebrate China's colonial ambitions. 

The ruling elite participates in and profits from the asset boom leaving their citizens with debt and future Chinese ownership.  

CPEC is the biggest and most audacious attempt.  Its success/failure may influence the very future of the CCP. 

When examined within this paradigm, China's Doklam desperation begins to make more sense. 

As influential thinkers within Pakistan start alerting the larger population to dangers posed by CPEC, China is running up against a shortened timeline.  

China is running out of time.  

Chinese CPEC game plan is simple two-step program:

1. Build key pieces of CPEC (Coal fed power plants, highways, etc.)
2. Straddle Pakistan with debt and demand concessions

It is my belief that Pakistan will not see the $46-50 Billion promised.  As soon as the debt burden reaches critical mass where Pakistan is unable to even service the debt, China will start rolling it and growing it so that Pakistan will be on the hook for a huge debt burden. 

This debt burden will be legally binding.  A debt ridden Pakistan will first concede Gilgit-Baltistan to China military.  

And here's the kicker if India attacks POK, this legal agreement between China-Pak will make China a party to the dispute. 

Chinese intelligence monitoring India's arms build up has come to the same conclusion as I did - India plans a major operation in POK.  

An outright India attack would disrupt China's carefully laid plans.   

China's Doklam adventure is designed to achieve multiple objectives chief among them - force India to delay its operation in POK giving China time to bring the aforementioned 2-step strategy to fruition.  

But Chinese desperation may have had the opposite effect i.e. pushed India's hand by introducing a sense of urgency.  

The next 5 years may ......

China's 'Doklam' Miscalculation - And its Wider Implications

It makes no sense.  Even an rookie soldier would tell you that you dont open your strategic moves by playing your biggest card.  It defies common sense. 

So what prompted China to challenge India in Doklam?  Why open an Eastern front with India this early in the process?  Why surrender the element of surprise?  

A 'preemptive strike' seems like the only explanation.   

A docile Indian response for 40+ years has bred a sense of sanguine overconfidence within the Chinese establishment.  Recent reports suggests China has usurped 2000 sq km of Indian territory over the past few decades. 

A micro, local version of the 'salami slice' doctrine has been implemented by China.  

It follows a now familiar pattern:

1. Call an area 'disputed'
2. Claim said area and call for talks for a 'peaceful' resolution 
3. Confront border forces and occupy small areas within 'disputed' area
4. Gauge rival's response.  Is response 'muted', feeble? Continue occupying area and build semi-permanent structures
5. Repeat cycle 

Successive Indian governments have preferred an ostrich like approach to China's expansionist ambitions.  An approach which has conditioned the Chinese into fashioning their tactics with a docile, subservient India as a starting point. 

This week's Doklam incident must be seen in this light.  

But a broader chess game is underway.  

As described here http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2017/06/the-approaching-war-india-vs-pakistan.html

India is preparing to attack Pakistan with a clear objective:  Take and hold POK. 

Pakistan's severely weakened economy, dependence on American military hardware and international isolation has given India a near perfect window to act now.  

China's CPEC program has injected a sense of urgency into India's plans.  India faces a 'now-or-never' moment vis-a-vis the Sino-Pak axis. 

Even a limited war with India in POK would severely damage CPEC.  More importantly even if India fails to achieve all its objectives, a declared war would open the door for India to establish CPEC as an encroachment on Indian territorial sovereignty and impose a program to permanently cripple it  through cross border bombings, Water Wars, etc. 

Moreover, the consequent rise in cost of protecting CPEC would make it bottomless pit and scare away prospective investors. 

China understands these factors.  What is baffling though it its willingness to open its counter moves with the biggest strategic card in the deck i.e. opening a second front on India's eastern border with China. 

Couple this incursion with the 'downed' Sukhoi jet on Indo-China earlier this month and we can draw the following conclusions:  China wants to buy time and prevent the aforementioned attack on POK. 

Perhaps the Chinese expected the usual muted response from India and were hoping to scare India into paralysis on the Western front. 

If not permanently, than long enough to allow China to build out their CPEC highway/railway network in POK and allow for a large contingent of PLA to be stationed there and become the defacto border force to defend against Indian aggression.  

Some reports have suggested that 10,000 Chinese troops are already stationed in POK.  But against overwhelming odds (India has 100,000 troops in Kashmir alone) China needs to buy more time. 

By escalating the Doklam incident, Indian strategist has played their cards well.  A larger escalation would draw international attention.  With Bhutan siding with India, China risks reinforcing its image as an international bully.  Smaller states along OBOR will get the message - You could be the next victim in China's hegemonistic designs. 

Actions taken by India over the past 3 years suggests that Indian military has prepared for a two front war.  India's long border with China will allow it to counter Chinese incursions in one area with their own incursions along other parts of the border.  Defending such a long border would raise costs for China.  

The best China can hope for is an uneasy stalemate.  

These factors help explain China's somewhat haphazard opening gambit.  

The question is how far are they willing to take this.  

One last point.  CPEC is more than a strategic 'string of pearls' project for China.  It is a OBOR demonstrator program.  Its failure would severely dent Chinese attempts to replicate it in other parts of the world. 

CPEC's importance within OBOR suggests China will prevent Pakistan's use of Nukes (tactical or conventional) in the battlefield.  Indian counters would permanently destroy China's ability to gain a control over Af-Pak.  

CPEC may have (at least partly) crippled Pakistan's nuclear blackmail. 

The Approaching War - India Vs. Pakistan...- China ... 2018 - Part 1

It is now a foregone conclusion.  A matter of when, not if. 

India will attack Pakistan.  Pakistan knows it and can do little about it. 

What is to be seen is the nature, intensity and final objectives of this assault. 

We can analyze and speculate.

The planning for this assault seems to have started  as soon as PM Modi took office.  As most other Internet Hindus, including yours truly were agitated and angered by Modi Government's supposed hobnobbing with Pakistani interests, the Modi-Doval team was putting in motion a long term strategy to find a permanent solution to Pakistan.  CPEC merely accelerated the timeline.

PM Modi's 'unplanned' surprise visit to Pakistan was particularly painful.  "HOW COULD HE?" was the consensus sentiment across PM Modi's core supporters. 

But Pakistan is a complex problem.  If mere military solution worked, India would have exercised that option a long ago.  Pakistan has since its inception, positioned itself as a leader of the global Muslim Ummah.  Any assault on Pakistan would be perceived as an attack on Muslims. 

PM Modi needed to make a public and demonstrable effort to make peace with Pakistan so that European bleeding heart rulers and Arab monarchies would be convinced that the assault on Pakistan was a last resort.  

A. The Arab Variable:

The first part PM Modi's strategy aimed at decoupling Pakistan from the rest of the Muslim world. 

The soft approach toward both Saudi Arabia and UAE in particular should been seen in this light.  This approach involved 3  facets:

1. Leverage the peaceful, hardworking Indian diaspora to reassure these Arab nations that they can count on India to support them against their own extremist elements

2. Subtly play on the growing fears of Arab rulers that the jihadi fires funded and nurtured by them are approaching their own citadels and unless nipped in the Pakistani bud would consume them sooner rather than later

3.  Build strong economic interdependence.  According to Paki media India-UAE alone have signed MOUs worth $75 billion.  The main feature of this relationship is UAE providing India with energy security by building an oil reserve on their soil while India provides UAE with food security by providing dedicated Agri zones.

The success of this Arab outreach can be gauged from the muted response vis-a-vis Kashmir from the larger Muslim Ummah particularly the Arab states.


 B. China - The Wild Card

Perhaps the biggest variable in creating a lasting and permanent solution to the Pakistan problem is China.  With America having given up on Pakistan, China remains India's biggest worry.  Any overt support from China must be accounted for and neutralized. 

It is safe to assume that China will do everything within its right and beyond to preserve its carefully nurtured asset. But the very factors that have driven Pakistan into China's arms can and will be used to unravel the Sino-Paki alliance.

 Islamic insurgencies are sprouting across the globe.  From Manila to Manchester and beyond.  China has its own ticking Islamic time bomb - XinJiang.  Chinese arrogance seems to think it can put the Jihadi Genie back in the bottle. 

One must applaud the ambition of the Chinese leadership. With CPEC China is attempting to win a war in a region and against a foe where 3 Empires have failed. 

Chinese strategists and leadership have come to the right conclusion i.e. Pakistan is a basket case and beyond redemption. 

As argued here last year - http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2016/08/chinese-acquisition-and-balkanization.html - CPEC is an attempted takeover of Pakistan by the Chinese Communist party. 

Leaks published by Pakistan's leading daily Dawn have essentially confirmed the arguments set forth in the aforementioned post. 

If anything China's ambitions are far greater in scale and go far beyond establishing pockets of influence deep inside Pakistan.  This is an attempted hollowing out of Pakistan - geographically, militarily and culturally. 

Chinese calculations (at this point in time) seem to be spot on.  A friendless Pakistan has its back to the wall.  Former owners America and Saudi Arabia have decided not to renew the lease on their former b...h. 

A nearly bankrupt Pakistan has started out on its annual pilgrimage with an even larger begging bowl.  

Now add to these woes the never relenting march of radical Islam and a hostile arch enemy India which is finally getting its act together under PM Modi and you have Pakistan with few choices. 

For China the choices are stark and binary:  

A)  Sit back and watch radical Islam over run Pakistan with India attacking it in the near future to forever neutralize China's number one leverage in the region

OR 

B) Take a more proactive approach and turn Pakistan into an Islamic North Korea - dependent on the CCP for even the most rudimentary military and economic needs and in return ready to do China's bidding at the drop of a hat. 

China wants to replicate in South Asia the same leverage it enjoys vis-a-vis North Korea i.e. have an ally with which hold the entire region to ransom.

But China is making a vital error in its carefully though out  calculations.

Pakistan, it is often said, depends on the 3 As - Allah, Army and America. 

While CPEC has co-opted the mealy mouth Army, Allah and America are likely to react with a vengeance to any Chinese encroachment on their long held turf.

Allah:

It is now almost a weekly occurrence - news reports trickling out of China's muslim majority state Xin Jiang describe the draconian measures China is taking to suppress (and potentially eradicate) every symbol of Islam. 

What were occasional news reports have become routine.  here's a sample from month of May 2017 alone:

http://nextshark.com/china-reportedly-collect-millions-dna-samples-year-muslim-region/


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/05/12/anti-muslim-sentiment-is-on-the-rise-in-china-we-found-that-the-internet-fuels-and-fights-this/?utm_term=.f746f48f1b74

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4443586/China-bans-extreme-Islamic-baby-names-Muslims.html

At some point China will have to contend with the greatest threat facing the world - Radical Islam.  Even a subservient Pakistan wouldnt be able to stop the upsurge in anti-Chinese sentiment in the backdrop of this growing anti-Islamic crackdown. 

CPEC would add a new dimension to this war between Communist China and radical Islam i.e. Colonialism

Pakistani news media and columnists have already started uttering the 'C' word.  The New East India Company is a recurring theme on the Pakistani neck of social media.  

CPEC may as well stand for China's Pakistan Exploitation Company. 

India can and should exploit this fault line.  As one Pakistani acquaintance once said to me "To us our religion is the only thing.  Everything else is a distant second".  That sentiment explains all of Pakistan's misfortune.  All of it.  

And it is a sentiment which China has failed to account for in its carefully laid out strategy. 

As Pakistan (in its blind hatred of India) turns a blind eye to China's anti-Muslim crackdown, it loses what little credibility it holds within the larger Muslim Ummah. 



C. American/European Perfidy

American/Western foreign policy is often  "If they against us they are "terrorists"  if they are with us they are "freedom fighters"  - goes the old cold war era joke. 

......To Be Continued 

D. Pakistan's Economy



E.  Pakistan's Military



F.  Pakistan's Other Neighbors


G. India's Strategy - The Timing



H. What could go Wrong?

CPEC, Uighurs and Rohingas - What do they have in Common - The New Great (Muslim) Wall of China

For months now several strands culminating in and around Kashmir have baffled yours truly.  Something things dont add up. 

1. Rohingas being settled in all places J&K
2. China's takeover of Pakistan aka CPEC
3. The massive, draconian crackdown of Uighurs across Xin Jiang

CPEC is a money pit.  None of the players involved will find a way to recover the large sums being 'invested' in the hell hole that is Pakistan. Clearly China has ulterior motives.  Motives which have been exposed by Pakistan's leading daily 'Dawn' earlier this month.

(Please refer to previous posts on this blog for details on CPEC's implications).

Contrast China's love for rabidly islamic Pakistan with how they treat their own Muslim minority.  Uighurs are now a minority in their own state.  And this trend is only accelerating.  China has left no stone unturned to a) change demographics of this once Muslim majority region and b) dilute (if not erase) the muslim identity of Uighurs.

But what explains the incomprehensible attempts to settle Rohingas from Burma in J&K (if latest reports are to be believed) very close to the border with Pakistan?  Who is permitting this and why?

One aspect of CPEC that caught my attention was the unchallenged acceptance of Chinese labor and managers being used across all projects connected with this project.  Given that few non-Chinese entities will be allowed to participate in this effort it is safe to assume that Chinese nationals will be flooding Pakistan.

Couple this infusion with China's plans to cultural sensitization of Pakistanis toward the Chinese and a strange picture seems to emerge.

What if one key objective behind CPEC is settling Uighurs from Xinjian in Pakistan, cleansing Chinese territories of Muslim influence and transferring the headache to a pliant and subservient ally i.e. use CPEC to employ 'Chinese' Uighurs as laborers and then leave them in Pakistan.

And what if Burma (a long time Chinese ally) has done the same with Rohingas?  Drive them out and with help from Indian collaborators  settle them in Jammu to create a demographic shift within J&K so that a contiguous Muslim region can be built as a buffer between India and China - the new Great (Muslim) Wall of China.

Yes I'm clutching at straws.  But nothing is beyond the realm when it comes to Chinese machinations. 

Pakis-Naxals - The Real China-Pakistan Corridor

Mutilation of Indian soldiers and Naxal attack on CRPF are seemingly unconnected events.  100s of kms apart, executed by very different protagonists albeit with a similar objection - Destruction of India. 

But make no mistake the Dragon and his bitch are working in tandem anticipating and desperately trying to preempt a major initiative by the Modi Govt. in the not too distant future. 

Over the past year, Pakistani media is abuzz with stories of India's rapid military build up.   The Modi Govt. has not only hasten the pace of long term military infrastructural initiatives across the Indo-China border but much to Pakistan's chagrin, also updated defense acquisition processes to plug vital gaps in India's immediate military preparedness.

Reports indicate that India is preparing to wage a short 2-3 week war against Pakistan to achieve key permanent and long term objectives. 

The primary objectives may be clear (and I shall NOT delve into them here) but the secondary outcomes may deliver much greater long term benefits to India.

A short conflict will allow India to inflict max. damage whilst keeping the conflict below the nuclear threshold.  Moreover, it would prevent world powers from exerting pressure on India to enter into serious negotiations over long standing bilateral disputes. 

Both China and Pakistan recognize that the timing suits India.  China's economy is rapidly slowing down.  In addition, demand for its goods is shrinking the west - its primary (and most lucrative) trading partner.  Devastation of America's retail sector is a leading indicator of the coming Chinese economic slow down (Note: Volume lost via Retail bankruptcies is not translating completely into commensurate online sales)

Pakistan holds barely 5 months of foreign exchange which has prompted its FM to go on his annual 'begging' pilgrimage across the world. 

Pakistan's inventory of vital spare parts is shrinking with PAF forced to cannibalize its own planes to keep their depleted squadrons in fighting shape.  With most (if not all) its assets originating in America, India holds an heretofore unimaginable indirect leverage over Pakistan's ability to sustain an air conflict.

Contrary to reports, Chinese made 'J' fighter jets are no match to India's Sukhois.

It would not take much for India to gain air superiority over Pakistan.  In fact Pakistan would be reluctant to engage any of its air assets lest India permanently cripples Pakistan's ability to deliver nukes (with surface to surface missiles remaining the only option).

Given Pakistan's inability to sustain any meaningful economic growth (currently at < 1%) its ability to pay for state-of-the-art military hardware is highly questionable.  


Delusional Paki 'experts' may argue that Pakistan is no longer considered a pariah state in global capitals, but with each menacing Jihadi attack, Pakistan's image as a global terror state gains even more traction. 

Given these circumstances, no real global power would furnish Pakistan with the neccessary hardware to counter a massive Indian attack. 

Even its all weather friend - China - would think twice before openly supporting Pakistan - unless the conflict escalates and it sees India's position weaken both militarily and diplomatically.

Pakistan and China have understood these factors and are trying to preempt India's coming military actions by using the two low cost options available to them i.e. Jihadis and Naxals. 

Their strategy has the following objective:

1. Keep India preoccupied on the domestic front
2. Raise Indian military's cost of openly taking on Pakistan
3. Forcing India into acting prematurely 
4. Gauging India's response vis-a-vis continued provocations

PM Modi's Zen like silence reminds me of how Michael Corleone in the novel 'The Godfather' ignores and silently suffers every insult and provocation inflicted on him by the Barzini led New York families till the time he's ready to act against them. 

PM Modi is holding fire till he can tie up all the diplomatic loose ends, build India's military so it can handle a two-front conflict and most importantly wait for the timing of global conflicts to reach a point where few would care much if India permanently cripples (if not dismembers) Pakistan.

The time is approaching.  The final solution is near.