Collapsing Pakistan - How PM Modi is Triggering a Crisis

83% of Dubai's residents are foreign born.  To a varying degree this demographic profile plagues most rich Arab countries.  But what does this have to do with the collapse Pakistan?  

A great deal.  Read on. 

Very early in his tenure, PM Modi undertook several steps to engage key muslim nations across the middle east.  Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Iran to name a few.  To the impatient right winger, NaMo was following the same appeasement script embraced by his predecessors:  Genuflect at the alter of Arabs, with the misguided hope that it would translate into goodwill and votes with India's muslims. 

In reality, PM Modi and his security advisor Ajit Doval were working to a long term plan:  To isolate and strangulate Pakistan, economically, diplomatically and militarily.  

Most Indian Muslims working in the middle east will readily confess to the startling reality of Muslim unity - there's none.  Non-Arab Muslims are treated like dirt.  

Non-locals are not allowed to own property in their name and businesses must be launched in partnership with a local 'sponsor'.  The threat of deportation, hangs like the domiciles' sword over their heads (compare this to how legal residents are treated in western nations).  

On the flip side, Arabs are legitimately afraid of non-Arabs drowning them with shear numbers and taking over their lands.  

In a strange contradiction Islam helps establish the legitimate claim of non-Arabs over Arab lands.  If (as Islam preaches) there are no nations, and hence, no boundaries what prevents non-Arab muslims from laying claim to Arab countries.  Given enough numbers non-Arab muslims could legitimately claim leadership of Islam, side-lining and eventually subduing Arabs.  

It is this fear that (partly) drives Arabs into keeping non-Arabs at arms length, on a tight leash.  And it is this fear that Team Modi has exploited. 

Arabs have reason to fear Pakistanis.  A 200 million strong nation, built exclusively on the idea of Islam's supremacy, can and does claim a right to lead Muslims of the world. 

Arabs on the other hand view Pakistanis as a conquered people.  Former Hindus, conquered by the sword of Allah.  

PM Modi has played on these fears to encourage Arabs to employ more Indian Muslims in lieu of their Pakistani counterparts.  Crashing oil prices have led to massive layoffs.  Saudi citizens need jobs and are being forced to work for the first time in a generation.  

This economic slowdown has resulted in layoffs with Pakistanis being the first to be put on the chopping block. Arabs prefer the more docile and subservient Indian & Bangladeshi Muslims.

Remittances from NRP represent Pakistan's single largest source of foreign exchange.  Stagnating or dipping remittances puts a severe burden on Pakistan's ability to service foreign debt, pay for imports, etc. 

Pakistan's economy rests on 3 pillars: 

1. Remittances 
2. Foreign Aid 
3. Exports 

Exports have hit an all time low.  A combination of competition and political instability have kept foreign investment at bay.  

Massive incentives given by the Indian government to textile exporters has led a huge losses for their Pakistani counterparts. 

Textiles are Pakistan's single largest industry, employing millions and bringing in much needed foreign exchange. 

On other 'aid' front, Team NaMo has convinced Uncle Sam to delay if not completely eschew supporting a teetering Pakistani economy via loans, waivers, etc. . 

Even Pakistan's owner - China - has refused to offer a bail out package beyond the deeply flawed CPEC scam. 

With all three avenues squeezed, Pakistan is approach a tipping point.  Pakistan holds just enough Forex to pay for 2-3 months of imports. 

Under these conditions it will be forced to seek foreign bail out packages, dictated by foreign lenders - lenders who are controlled by the West. 

Conditions for bailout will definitely include ending support to all forms of terror and could extend to the elimination of their nuclear program. 

But most importantly, it will leave Pakistan with few easy options.  End support to terror and the Jihadi backlash will trigger a civil war. 

Accept more Chinese support and mortgage an even bigger slice of Pakistan to the Dragon. 

Accept American terms and forever end its dream of capturing Kashmir. 

But the most likely scenario is the dismemberment of Pakistan.  And that seems to be a common goal both Uncle Sam and PM Modi are working toward. 




 

2019 Wont be 2014 - Martyr Vs. Crusader

From 2002 through 2014, PM Modi was hounded by India's Evil political empire.  An honest man of impeccable personal integrity was targeted for one and one reason alone.  He refused to play ball.  He refused to be drafted into the evil ecosystem that had ruled and ruined India for 70 years. 

They tried everything, media hit jobs, outlandish allegations, internal sabotage, CBI and judiciary....but nothing worked.  In fact, every attack helped gain even more sympathy for the CM and raised his profile across India. 

 He was an honest man fighting for his god forsaken country. A man willing to be martyred in the battle for his long enslaved motherland. 

It worked spectacularly.  People handed PM Modi a massive mandate to go from being a Martyr to a Crusader. 

While PM Modi has imbibed the true meaning of his mandate he seems to have omitted a vital piece i.e. to launch a no holds barred crusade against that anti-India evil empire. 

People expected a parade of UPA ministers and even the Queen's clan to be dragged from courts to prison to bail petitions to media trials.....

 Rightly or wrongly Indians perceive the PM as an all powerful Superman.

In his desire to rise above the tu-tu-mai-mai  of politics PM Modi has decided to continue with his tried and tested strategy to play the Martyr i.e. use opposition's dirty tricks to gain public sympathy.  

This is a dangerous strategy.  Here's why. 

A  PM who can shake the very foundations of India's financial system with a a one-two punch has, it is fair to assume, the wherewithal to go after Sonia.  No matter how powerful she may appear. 

Certainly any action against Sonia comes with its own risks.  Chief among them being any political sympathy she may gain by playing the wronged widow. 

But those risks far outweigh facing the wrath of a disappointed voter who elected PM Modi to go after the looters aof Mother India.  

PM Modi has a choice to make - keep playing the Martyr or refashion himself as the Crusader and spend the next 18 months pursuing every piece of corruption against Sonia and her clones.

Failure to getting conclusive evidence against UPA's big guns will seriously dilute BJP's position vis-a-vis corruption and furnish Sonia with enough political room to rid herself of the taint. 

After all it was CM Modi who blunted every allegation of corruption thrown at him by pointing out that the all powerful central govt. had failed to produce an iota of evidence to prove their outlandish allegations.  

What would prevent Sonia from using the same argument in  2019?

 

Is it Time to Panic?

1. May 2019 is a 19 months away. What seemed like a mere formality is increasingly looking like an uphill task. 

2. BJP has sensed it, hence the deeply flawed strategy to induct Narayan Rane into Maharastra cabinet

3.  As explained in earlier posts, a major operation in POK is a real possibility.  But war (no matter how successful) may not help politically.  Do it too close to May 2019 and you're accused of using war as a political weapon.  Use it too early and the effect gets dissipated.

4. A section of Middle class is turning against NaMo with a vengeance.  

The loss of a dedicated vote bank may or may not be offset by new voters garnered via successful schemes such as Jan Dhan, Mudra, 24x7 Power.  

BJP has remained sanguine, comforted by a nonexistent opposition and a still born Maha Gaat Bandhan (MGB)

But middle class anger has created an 'opposition' of sorts - NOTA - None of the Above.  Even if it does not appear on the ballot, disgruntled BJP supporters are likely to express their opposition by not showing up on polling day.  

5. Corruption as a political Issue is dead - BJP killed it
Induction of Narayan Rane and the complete lack of progress on investigations into major scams has neutralized (partially if not fully) corruption as a potent political issue. 

Juxtaposed against DeMo where honest, hardworking (albeit tax evading) middle class Indians were forced to part with their hard earned wealth, the absence of any real action against Vadra and Co could prove particularly costly come election day.  

6. The curse of a massive mandate
Indians havent reached a level of sophistication where they can differentiate between powers held by central, state and local govts.  With a massive mandate they have super expectations from the super government they helped place in office. 

And their super expectations are seemingly insatiable.

There are simply no excuses for BJP to not deliver on its promises.

 7. Indian Myopia
Indians do not think beyond the narrow domains of their daily lives and their immediate circle of friends and family. 

Take for instance the falling for state after Indian state to rising tide of Islamism.  In any other country, states the size of West Bengal becoming Islamic strongholds would have engendered panic across the nation.  Not in India.  Indians as a group (there are a few exceptions) a just too myopic to see beyond their noses. 

This mindset creates a major political hurdle.  Great work done in India's hinterland - rural electrification for instance - will have no real impact on voter preferences in most cities. 

Without visible, tangible change in their daily lives, voters will not acknowledge the stellar work done by the Modi government. 

8. The rapid spread of the BJP 
At first glance we should be celebrating BJP's rapid spread.  It will only help in the years ahead but this success creates a problem in 2019.  With BJP in absolute control of both central and state governments, there's simply no excuse left to no deliver on its promises. 

The bridge collapse at Elphinstone is the canary in the coal mine.  BJP governments must take corrective actions.  All the fantastic work done in 3 years could get wiped out if BJP isnt reelected.  

Here are a few ideas:

1. Focus on the basics
There are several 'low hanging fruits' at the urban level.  De-congesting urban areas could yield immediate and tangible results. 
Every city should have a satellite township which has easy access to the city.  The resulting construction boom would trigger job and wealth creation. 

2. Chart an Urban Indian's daily life
What can the govt do to improve this?  Have both a short term and long term strategy - to be implemented in parallel.  For examplee.  No more hawkers on public streets could be part of the swach Bharat program. Hawkers could be identified and moved to specially built shopping zones.  Say a once a week 'Mela' at major public grounds.  With the long term goal being the construction of 'Hawker malls'.  

This would have a visible, tangible and immediate impact on lives of Indians without hurting the livelihood of hawkers. 

3. Education 
What is preventing the govt. from permitting private players from entering the primary education sector in a very big way.   If handled correctly, high quality institutions could be launched in a matter of months.  The fringe benefits alone justify this strategy and it a great deal of work to get it done. 

Example:  Maharashtra govt announced the opening up of higher education sector to private players in the early 1980s.  The first colleges launched were laughable.  One college had a lab constructed next to a cowshed. 

Today those same institutions are highly sophisticated institutions sort after by students from all across India and from foreign countries. 

4. Medical Tourism 
High costs are the primary challenge confronting the global health care industry.  The govt. can launch dedicated SEZs focused on health care.  The Jobs and Forex generation potential is unlimited. 
The ancillary economic and political benefits are staggering. 
 

Final piece of unsolicited (humble) advice:  Dont let 'Perfect' be the enemy of 'Good'.