Raj Thackeray 1.5

Raj 1.5:  Raj Thackeray’s new strategy – a few random thoughts

Watching Raj Thackeray’s recent rallies, one can’t help but discern a definite shift in strategy.

Where Raj 1.0 was a brute force ‘Luca Brasi’, Raj1.5 is clearly better organized.  Not yet a ‘Vito Corleone’ but getting there. 

Notice, I’m not yet willing to assign a Raj2.0 version number to his most recent avatar.  Not yet.

In the three rallies held thus far, he has spent a mere 5% of his speech targeting ‘outsiders’.  More importantly, most of this targeting happened in his very first speech.  With each speech, the attack has focused on Maharashtra’s political leadership.  Namely, the Pawar clan.

Some of us have been hoping he would make such a shift.  And this ‘better late than never’ change in direction augurs well for Maharashtra’s politics and India’s future.

As explain here - http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2012/02/understanding-rise-of-raj-thackeray.html - Maharashtra is facing a huge political vacuum.  The present day leadership, cutting across party lines, is severely compromised.  Decades long prosperity has created financial gold mines.  Even petty politicians are reaping a windfall.  Political affiliations do not matter; these crooks have clearly earmarked their respective turfs, enforcing a political détente where the only victims are impoverished and helpless citizens.

Recent drought is only the latest manifestation of the political bankruptcy prevailing across Maharashtra.

Shiv Sena is allowed to preserve its hold over BMC (with a budget which exceeds that of most small states), CONgress keeps parts of Mumbai and the sugar belt, NCP keeps rest of Maharashtra with a  few bones thrown at BJP leadership to keep them in good humor.

More importantly, Sharad Pawar’s genius (or lack of political integrity) in presenting himself as the whore of Bombaylon, willing to align with any Delhi leadership which will preserve his fiefdom, ensures that no significant political challenge is ever presented by local or national leadership.

As Maharashtrians have come to this realization, a deep sense of despondency has crept into their engagement with the political establishment.  Saglech Chor – all are thieves - is a common refrain.

An electorate gripped by such disdain and hatred for politicians gives up on the democratic process, perpetuating the very political class they have come to detest.

Step in Raj Thackeray.

Given the very limited evidence presented by the 3 recent speeches, Raj Thackeray seems to have realized the following:

1.       The ‘other’, the ‘outsider’ can only become a boogeyman when voters have had experience with ‘negative’ effects of dealing with ‘outsiders’.  Vast parts of Maharashtra are untouched by ‘outsiders’.  Which limits its scope, restricting its efficacy as a voter catcher

2.       Across all regions, castes and religious segments, Maharashtra’s politician is now perceived as enemy No. 1.  This includes the BJP.  That alone can explain BJP’s decline across traditional strongholds like Vidharba

3.       Harping on outsiders, while pressing issues such as drought, lack of infrastructure, corruption are destroying Maharashtra, simply doesn’t cut it with most Maharashtrians.

a.       You can only blame outsiders for so much.  There are no outsiders in Vidharbha, so what explains the 12,000 farmer suicides and continuing decline in agriculture and overall economy

4.       Maharashtrian asmita is becoming a factor.  As Maharashtra watches NaMo transform a perennially drought ridden Gujarat into an agricultural juggernaut, Maharastrians are left wondering, why can’t we have a NaMo

5.       Raj Thackeray seems to have gauged the writing on the wall.  Development as a political issue has arrived

I believe this subtle change in strategy will benefit Raj Thackeray tremendously.  As predicted years ago, the departure of Balsaheb will accrue most of his constituency to Raj Thackeray.  He’s the rightful heir to the big Man’s political legacy.

In every speech Raj Thackeray has taken great care not to speak disparagingly about Maharashtra’s senior politicians.  Even when he criticizes them he uses proxies or first acknowledges their age and the respect it deserves.

By doing so, he’s subtly appealing to Maharashtra’s older generation which has remained immune to his appeal.  The Youth of Maharashtra is lining up behind him. 

Another key factor is his clear tilt toward the NDA.  In praising Nitish Kumar at his Solapur rally, he has tried to build bridges to ensure future induction into the NDA.

He’s working to a plan.

He has taken care not to directly target SharadP.  That would be suicidal.  Vast sections of Maharashtra where SharadP has helped create (or maintain) pockets of prosperity, SharadP still reigns supreme.  By targeting his nephew Ajit, Raj Thackeray has targeted SharadP by proxy.

SharadP is no babe in the woods.  He helped create Raj Thackeray by unleashing him 4 years prior to the 2010 elections.  He’s the grand master of this game.

Raj Thackeray better watch his back.  The Empire Always Strikes Back.

Conspiracy Behind Afzal/Kasab Hangings

My initial reading on the Afzal Guru execution was more on conventional lines - http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2013/02/making-sense-of-afzal-gurus-hanging.html

A ham handed attempt on the part of Sonia’s war room to prevent a Hindu/Urban consolidation behind NaMo.  Upon further analysis though a sinister motive has emerged.

This theory is based on connecting the dots.  I have no ‘inside’ information.

Let’s examine these dots.

Dot Number 1:

Conventional wisdom fails to explain how a minority vote hungry CONgress would expose itself to the accusation of punishing Muslims but letting Hindus off the hook.

Hindu/Urban vote has always been a floating, splintered entity.  Minority vote on the other hand is a rock solid electoral block.  How does a minority appeasing CONgress make a 180 degree turn without the guarantee of an alternate segment to replace it?  More importantly, these actions permit regional players like SP and BSP to corner the minority vote.

Dot Numbers 2, 3 and 4:

Kasab and Afzal are hanged within weeks of each other.  Timing of Afzal Guru’s hanging in particular is perplexing.  But add Shinde’s “Hindu” terror remark to the mix and suddenly a different (more sinister) picture emerges.

Dot Number 5:

As soon as news of Afzal’s hanging went public, the usual pseudos ramped up their ‘but what about perpetrators of Gujarat carnage’ diatribe.

These pseudos serve as proxies for the grievance mongering that as afflicted minority politics for the past several decades.  Muslims are never to be blamed for their own backwardness, muslims take to terror because they have been wronged, muslims are victims.

This constant harping on Hindu Terror, Gujarat riots, etc. is laying the ground work to justify a retaliatory attack on Hindu targets.

Dot Number 5:

Beheading of Indian soldiers.  The timing makes no sense.  There was no provocation.  Were Jihadis testing the waters?  How would Indians react if a popular leader was assassinated? Surely riots would ensue, but would the Indian state start a war?

Dot Number 6:

There’s a well-established precedence wherein serious political threats to the Dynasty have been neutralized.  I have never believed the canard behind Pramod Mahajan’s killing.  There was more to it.  His brother never admitted to the killing and died of brain hemorrhage while in prison.  More importantly, his assassination came within months of ABV anointing him his successor by calling him BJP’s Laxman behind LKA’s Ram. 

Similarly Madhavrao Scindia, Rajesh Pilot and Jitendra Prasad died in accidents or under questionable circumstances within months of each other.

This trend follows the mysterious death of Lal Bahadur Shastri – The finest PM India has had.  And one who could have buried the Dynasty forever.

Dot Number 7:

NaMo represents just such a threat.  He could send modern India’s Mughal dynasty to the political dumpster where it belongs.  Most importantly next generation of Dynasty scions are too young and do not carry the Gandhi name to be in position to recover ground if NaMo comes to power.

With the Sangh and the larger Hindu ummah lining up behind NaMo, he’s becoming unstoppable.  And once he assumes power it will become impossible to dislodge him.

It is a case of now or never for the dynasty.

So here’s the bottomline:

Kasab/Afzal were hanged to provoke retaliation from terror cells.  Surely, these cells have been preparing for just such a day.

Narendra Modi must guard against such an assassination attempt.  This campaign season exposes him.

Most importantly, Dynasty cannot afford to fail.  They’ll have one shot at him.  If they fail he becomes larger than life.

May Goddess Bhavani protect her favorite son.  Jai Mata Di.  

Making Sense of Afzal Guru's Hanging

The Politics behind Afzal Guru’s unexpected execution

There’s a broad agreement on one issue.  Afzal Guru was hanged with an eye on emerging political scenario.  This sudden appeal to nationalistic voters makes little sense.  When execution of a Pakistani terrorist like Ajmal Kasab feeds minority grievance mongering and backfires on secular parties, why the sudden alacrity in executing (an Indian) Afzal Guru?  Let’s try to make sense out of this.

1.       Sonia is sensing (and rightly so) a growing Hindu consolidation behind NaMo

2.       NaMo has usurped and monopolized two major electoral issues – Corruption and Development – ‘communal’ polarization remains Sonia last and only option

3.       With NaMo’s nomination now a mere formality, minority votes are certain to consolidate against him

a.       This cold calculation lies behind the abrupt hanging of Afzal Guru

4.       With minorities having no other option but the CONgress, preventing a counter Hindu consolidation has become Sonia’s top priority

5.       As diverse voting segments ranging from Sadhus to SRCC students line up behind NaMo, panic is setting in

6.       Afzal Guru’s abrupt hanging is a cynical ploy to run with the hares and hunt with the hounds

7.       It won’t work.

8.       The simmering anger that permeates across muslim ghettos is bound to rise

9.       Afzal Guru’s hanging will force a relook at accepted political equations: Muslims have only CONgress as a political option

a.       In areas where a Muslim party/candidate is a viable option (Assam, West Bengal), Muslim votes are likely to consolidate around that entity

b.      Here in lies an opportunity for BJP to upset CONgress’ apple cart by putting up a very strong Hindu candidate or make a calculated move to withdraw from the contest to allow counter Hindu consolidation around a viable Hindu candidate from a neutral political party like TMC in Bengal or TDP in Andhra

10.   Much as a panic stricken Rajiv Gandhi permitted Shilanyas at Ram Mandir to assuage growing Hindu anger over the Shah Bano fiasco, so has Sonia blundered by hanging Afzal Guru so close to the election

In trying to prevent a Hindu consolidation behind NaMo, Sonia has only fueled the NaMo juggernaut.