How to Prevent 'India Shining Part Deux'

During the heated campaign for Gujarat in December of 2007, the enterprising folks at NDTV sent a hard-nosed report to a remote corner of Gujarat to verify a staggering claim being made by CM Modi - "24x7 uninterrupted power".

With Dr. Prannoy Roy in the studios the NDTV reporter was broadcasting live from outside a small, barely lit neighborhood shop.  Approaching the shop keeper, the reporter - with barely concealed smugness - asked him why his shop showed no signs of the much tom-tom-ed 24x7 power.  

The shop keeper reached behind and over his shoulder and flicked a switch.  As the tube light flickered to life the reporter asked the shop keeper why he did not keep the lights on.  His response "I have to pay the bill, this power doesnt come free".  As the NDTV team collected their respective jaws from the floor, Dr. Roy could muster up a limp retort "expensive power" or something to that effect.

The ensuing election was fought on a mixture of development, Gujarati Asmita and Hindutva in that order of importance.

18 months of NDA tenure seems to suggest that PM Modi has settled on a similar strategy for 2019.

As explained in a previous post (http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2015/10/india-shining-part-deux-and-why-we.html) this strategy comes with inherent risks.

1. India is not Gujarat
The Gujarati shop keeper may be grateful for 24x7 power supply and may be more than willing to pay the bill but Indians in other parts of the country, fed on a steady diet of state largesse may not be so enamored with assured power supply if it comes a a steep cost.

Team Modi seems to have anticipated such a scenario.  Conversion of Indian power consumption to LED based light bulbs are but the start of an effort to bring down per capita consumption so that the inevitable high costs of generating and distributing power can be rationalized so as to ensure zero net impact to the consumer.

Even Jan Dhan accounts and direct deposit of subsidies may have a limited impact if prices remain high (more on this later)

BJP needs to understand the mindset of voters outside Gujarat before they reach a point of no return.

2. Time
As an International banker pointed out last week, PM Modi is taking a long term view and eschewing the temptation to take short cuts so as to install a strong foundation upon which to construct a truly vibrant, dynamic and friction-less economy.

Noble and appropriate as this path may be, it ignores the emerging political realities and perhaps the single biggest constraint faced by the Modi Administration i.e. Time.

As pointed out earlier, though completely necessary for India's long term economy well being, initiatives such as Make-In-India are unlikely to bring strong political dividends in 2019.  Simply because most new ventures are unlikely to have a meaningful and visible impact on India's economy in time for the election season which should commence around Oct 2018.

PM Modi had 36 months to deliver on major initiatives so as to allow people enough time to imbibe the benefits of these goods and services and be willing to associate them to the NDA in run up to 2019.  The PM and his team are doing great on some and not so great on others.

Controlling prices is one area where NDA has come up short.  Way short in public perception.

Price Rise:

Mr. Nitin Gadkari (easily the top 3 performing Ministers in the Modi Cabinet) came up with a lame defense on price rise.  "Prices of some items have fallen and others has risen".  This simply wont cut it with the common man.

If the govt. carries on with this 'item(s) of the month' philosophy toward price rise, people will come to permanently associate high prices with the NDA govt. at the center.

Even local price fluctuations will be dumped at PM Modi's door step and that is when the 'Suit boot ki sarkar' will stick like a 3M adhesive.

Moreover, failure to control prices will make new highways and other infrastructure improvements look like gifts created by the Modi Government for enjoyment of the rich.  

Congress and their media assets are likely to have a field day if even one daily necessity is out of reach of the poor in the run up to 2019.

As events of the past months have shown us, commodity markets can be manipulated with great ease.  A formidable industry has come up which survives on creating artificial scarcity of basic necessity so as to make windfall profits out of the misery of the common man.

No amount of flag ship successes on the infra and industrial fronts will mitigate the anger and rage engendered by high prices.

In India there are two political certainties - Caste and Prices.  NDA can tackle one but not both.

NDA's current strategy is pushing them into a cul-de-sac where they can get hit by a Price-Caste double whammy.

The Solution:

Given these constraints and the limited time at PM Modi's disposal what should be the Government's strategy going forward.  Firstly, there should be no let up on the remarkable work being done by various ministries.  This work will provide India with a strong foundation.

But to succeed in 2019, PM Modi must reverse engineer the pitch.

a) Identify the basic needs of the population i.e. Every day food items, Daily challenges (transportation, water, etc.)

b) Rapidly create infrastructure to bring prices of these items down to a level where they never become a political issue

Controlling prices:

Prices are driven by a basic interaction between supply and demand.  The NDA Govt. should build temperature controlled warehouses to store basic items of daily consumption - Onions, potatoes, Dal, wheat, etc.

These warehouses can and should be constructed on Railway lands close to major Railway lines.  Which in turn would make the shipping of these items both economical and time effective.

With most major rail hubs supplied with ample power through a national grid, power should be readily available to this 'cold chain'.

A national team could monitor local prices of these commodities on a daily weekly basis and inject the necessary supply as and when price spike so as to rapidly bring them down.

A big deal should be made of the this national cold chain so that people can directly associate this key infrastructure initiative directly to the PM.

Even 40 years later, people associate Indira Gandhi with India's progress.  As flawed as this perception may be, one must applaud Congress' marketing savvy in creating and perpetuating it.

NDA has much to learn from the Congress in this regard.




..... to be continued

Bihar and the Elephant in the Room

26/11 - That date is etched in the memory of every patriotic Indian.  The ensuing anger seemed to be as much directed at Paki pigs as it was towards Indian rulers who had left India vulnerable on all sides.

That Congress and her allies would face the music in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections was a given.  Even the usually smug presstitutes wore a downcast look across their collective faces.

Not only did Congress handily defeat the BJP across India, but what shocked native Mumbaikars such as myself was the fact that Congress-NCP was able to sweep Mumbai.  Surely MNS cut into opposition votes but the truth remained that South Mumbai witnessed one of its lowest voting percentage (at 43%).

It was an important lesson in understanding the complex psyche of Indian voters.  The nation reelected exactly the same bunch of crooks and anti-nationals.

Needless to say, that watching Bihar elect the convicted Char-Chor who destroyed Bihar over a 15 year reign wasnt a huge surprise.  What was surprising was the magnitude of BJP's defeat.

As BJP supporters recover from Bihar's shocking results, it is important that both BJP and its supporters draw the right conclusions.  For only the right insights will lead to effective solutions.

Followers of PM Modi have come up with a host of reasons to explain the Bihar debacle.  Foreign travel, Soot-Boot, ignoring Social media supporters, cow politics, Dadri, Award Wapsi, arrogance, lack of progress on black money, etc.

But none of these explain the rout.  This is not to suggest that these werent contributing factors.  They were but not to the extent where they would dictate electoral outcomes.

As it happened in Delhi so in Bihar, BJP's vote share remained close to what it polled in previous battles at the hustings.  What changed was opposition unity.

Opposition unity is the 'Elephant in the Room'.

(Note: In run up to 2004, it was a despondent Sonia who gave up her smug arrogance to reach out to opposition stalwarts.  A terribly weakened Congress eschewed 'ekla chalo re' and forged a solid UPA to defeat BJP)

However, opposition too gives us only a partial explanation for the massive mandate against the BJP.  To properly understand BJP's defeat one must first delve into the psyche of the much maligned Bihari voter.

You may be surprised to find that he isnt too different from the Indian voter.

So what drives the typical Indian Voter.

Self defeating Intra-Indian Competitiveness:

According to an old Harvard tale, a graduating class of MBAs were asked to select one of two options.

Option A:  You get a job that pays $90K but your friend gets one that pays $100K
Option B:  You get a job that pays $70K but your friend gets one that pays $60K

A startling 67% selected Option B.

Though this strange phenomenon is a common human condition, it is greatly amplified among Indians.  Surely if such a survey was conducted on graduating IIT or IIM graduates a 100% would select option B.

All kidding aside, caste, regional, communal and linguistic differences have greatly amplified this 'crabs in a well' trait among Indians.  Witness how young Dalit men are beaten up for celebrating life events (weddings, birthdays, etc.) in a socially ostentatious manner.

Arun Shourie narrated an interesting anecdote in one of his speeches two years ago.  Annie Beasant was asked what differences she noticed between Irish, Scottish and Indian freedom fighters.  Her response:  "Indians cannot work together".

Winston Churchill came to a similar conclusion.  I have personally noticed this dynamic play out within Indian Diaspora in America.  When two Indians come from different states they quarrel over which is better, when they come from same State, they quarrel over different regions within that state, when they come from same region of the state it usually gets down to caste, and so on.

Given these divisions, Hindu unity is a mirage.  It occasionally emerges to create an impact but that emergence is ephemeral at best.

It shouldnt surprise readers of this blog that caste allegiance is far stronger than allegiance to a common Hindu identity.

A vast section of upper caste Hindus much rather preserve the caste system than dilute it to yield Hindu unity.

India lacks a Hindu party because India lacks a Hindu Vote bank.

Laloo, Mulayam, Maya, etc. are products of this caste dynamic.  Even if these leaders are barred from participating in elections, others will emerge to fill the vacuum.

If a Laloo is swept back to power, the reasons behind this are simple.  He represents a giant 'F You'' to non-Yadavs.  Much as electing a corrupt Mayawati was a giant 'F You' to non-Dalits.

These groups will continue voting their caste no matter what development PM Modi brings to their door step.

If Hindu Mumbaikars couldnt vote to punish facilitators of 26/11 attacks why are we surprised that Biharis have voted their respective castes.

The question then arises how do we solve this riddle.  The opposition has found PM Modi's achilles heel i.e. Opposition Unity.  We must find a way around it.

Fortunately we have the time to take corrective action.

BJP may be tempted to take a conventional political route to address this challenge.  But molly-coddling

Solution:  Dilute hold of caste loyalties by bribing specific economically backward groups and replace caste with class.

It is impossible to erode an entrenched caste system that has prevailed for over 2000 years.  Instead bring economically weak sections from each caste under one umbrella and design programs that benefit them within 18 months.


Indians demand a two fold response from PM Modi

a) Give us tangible, visible returns on our political investments

b) Punish those who have looted our wealth

a) Tangible Results:  Direct Action i.e. Garib Kalyan Mela

PM Modi's heart is in the right place.  It is necessary condition for winning 2019 but not a sufficient condition.

Here's how NDA's development strategy works:

Clean up the system > Create a policy driven state and build vital infrastructure plus skilled workforce to attract investors > Investors will then set up manufacturing and service industries > which in turn will create jobs > Raising income levels of poor Indians > will raise their standard of living turning them into enthusiastic voters.

This is classic trickle-down-economics.  Even in highly efficient economies with limited friction, trickle down economics takes years to bear fruit.  In an highly inefficient, moth ridden Indian economy, benefits of economic expansions will take a decade to reach the intended recipients.

This is precisely what happened with ABV's NDA 1.  It was UPA 1 which reaped the political benefits of a robust economy which was bequeathed to Sonia thanks to ABV's exceptional work.

ABV received nothing but scorn from the marginalized (albeit dedicated Indian Voter).

For instance BJP-Sena govt. built the Mumbai-Pune expressway which gave a massive boost to a number of industries along the corridor.  It had no discernible impact on voting patterns across Maharashtra.

PM Modi's policies are driving him into a similar cul-de-sac.  What is needed is a massive direct-action initiatives a la Gujarat's 'Garib Kalyan Melas'.

This is not to suggest that war effort launched on Infrastructure development should be slowed or stopped.

The poor, helpless Indian wonders how a Vijay Mallya can be let off despite squeezing banks to the tune of 1000s of crores but the govt. drags her feet when it comes to handing out benefits to defense personnel and the poor.

The two tracks arent mutually exclusive.  If worked in tandem they will help BJP make the case that BJP is pro-poor.

More ideas on this line of attack coming up in future posts.

b) Punish the Looters

This part will need to be handled deftly.  Sonia will react and react aggressively.  Besides as argued in previous posts, timing of launching this attack is of as much (if not more) important as the action itself.

The previous timeline of targeting Sonia around mid-2017 is still applicable.  But delaying it for too long would render the PM open to accusations of political vendetta.

Instead, BJP should begin striking at Sonia and her larger secular parivar by launching selective leaks.  Put Sonia on the back foot by forcing her to defend the Kripa Shankar Singhs and Diggy Rajas.

This will also keep Sonia's media occupied with find ways to protect her.  Which would give BJP more leg room to focus on governance issues.

Every month (or quarter) BJP should force a new scandal on the Congress.  If BJP wants to forgo use of Govt. entities, 'non-state' actors such as Dr. Swamy can be furnished with the requisite ammunition to launch the attacks.

Such public spectacles will reassure the public at large that PM Modi is working toward avenging Sonia's decade long looting spree.

PM Modi cannot address local harassment meted out by cops and babus to India's helpless poor.  But if he can take down the Sonias and Sharads, he sends a message to Indians on the lowest rung - "The PM is with you, I'm punishing those that treat you like animals"

"I made Modi PM, What has he done for me" and the alternate BJP ecosystem

Some of us who supported NaMo through his toughest period harbored a hope, a wish that once we had 'our' PM it would elevate us to a (if not an exalted status) special group with access to the new NaMo ecosystem that was bound to replace Congress' own evil empire.

To suggest that events of the past 15 months have disappointed this group would be an understatement.

Others (like yours truly) who supported the PM with the sole aim of seeing a long cherished dream (of a strong, self-reliant, proud India) come to fruition have had no problems with his performance.

This is not to say that the PM has hit every ball out of the park.  Surely there have been hits and misses.  But any objective evaluation of his performance suggests an above average record in his first 15 months.

Given the slew of measures undertaken thus far, NDA should enter 2019 with a very solid record to present  before Indian voters come election time.

But we need to address questions being raised by some disgruntled members of NaMo's political family.

1. Why doesnt the PM create an alternate ecosystem to rival and replace Congress' evil empire

Though there's a genuine concern and some merit behind this argument, it fails to recognize the PM and his concerns.

In a purely utopian state a powerful PM with control over a vast state apparatus could easily resource a right leaning ecosystem into existence.  But willing such a system into existence would be fraught with immense danger to his fledgling govt.

The very announcement (formal or informal) of said system would trigger an internecine war with Right wing's best and brightest jockeying for prime slots closest to the center of power.

Most importantly it will by definition engender a new nascent corruption within NaMosphere.  Which in turn would carry with it the potential to harm PM Narendra Modi's greatest asset:  His unimpeachable record on corruption and his personal integrity.

The PM and his core team would then have to spend an inordinate amount of attention on resolving petty differences and hurt egos.  No PM, particularly one tasked with leading a revolution can afford such distractions.

2. Why does the PM ignore those that stood by him in his worst period

This too is a legitimate grouse.  But unless you were directly targeted by Sonia's goons through legal and illegal means, unless you were dragged into an inquiry or held behind bars like Amit Shah and Vanjara were, you dont really have much of a case.

Surely, PM Modi should assuage your hurt egos, but being a keyboard warrior (including myself) does not entitle you to any special treatment other than the joy of witnessing your dream agenda being birthed into existence.

NaMo put his life and liberty on the line to serve Mother India.  We should expect nothing more from him than having a better future for our country.

3.  But Congress' evil empire is striking back, NaMo needs his own army

Conventional wisdom dictates that the PM join this political arms race.  But what makes us think he hasnt already created an asset base that will help him wage this war.

More importantly is this war with India's corrupt, deracinated, brown sahib, elite worth fighting.  Thus far the biggest challenge to PM Modi has come from #AwardWapsi.  But that too has fizzled out under its own weight of hypocritical contradictions.

If the PM takes care of his promises - Prices, water, power, roads, security, jobs....none of these side shows will matter and if he fails to take care of them, the opposition will have no need for these back channel warriors.

4.  But Congress uses 'intolerance' to disrupt parliment and stall key bills and trip NDA's development agenda

Certainly Sonia's strategy is working.  But BJP seems to have found a way around it.

I had suggested this in April of this year - http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2015/04/why-bjp-and-pm-need-plan-b.html

This was before I was made aware of a brilliant new initiative in Maharashtra led by CM Fadnavis called 'JalYukta Shivar'.

You can google/youtube it to find out more about this great program.  It is precisely such initiatives that will make Parliament irrelevant to PM's development strategy.

While conventional economic wisdom dictates that the PM take drastic reform measures (requiring parliament's approval), political sagacity suggests that the PM should do what he has done in Gujarat - provide (in his first term) a more efficient Mai-Baap government (Described here >>  http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2011/06/understanding-indian-electorate.html)


That is precisely what NDA is doing and doing remarkably well.  It will be 2018 before we see tangible results.

5. Should the NaMo Army be disbanded?

Absolutely not.  That would be a colossal waste.  The NaMo army in all its incarnations is a massive force multiplier and should not be disbanded.  It should be reoriented to wage peace and prepare for the war that lies ahead in 2019.

It should be tasked with creating an alternate ecosystem but not one that mirrors Sonia's evil empire which is seeped in 'Politics of Patronage'.

This has already started happening to a certain extent.  Brilliant leaders of this brigade such as Rajesh Jain, Prasanna, Shashi, and others have begun building this alternate platform.  We should support their efforts by whatever means possible.

In addition the NDA govt can be asked for legitimate, non-partisan measures which will help open up the media space.

For instance, talk radio helped propel George W. Bush to the presidency should be encouraged as a political platform.  It has tremendous rural reach and can help get the right of center message to the masses.  Indian radio can be opened up by the govt. and right leaning voices can be allowed an equal space to help sustain this alternate ecosystem.

Folks, we have a once-in-a -millennium opportunity to set India on the right path.  Let's not blow it over perceived personal slights and petty differences.

India awaits its rightful destiny and we have final found a leader who can deliver us there.

The 'Modi' Doctrine: Weddings, Breaking Bread and going After Sonia

This is frustrating.  We social media, keyboard warriors played a small but important part in countering the enemies  of our beloved PM.  Tweet for tweet, blog for blog, fact-checking for fact-checking, few socio-political movements can claim such a contribution.

There's more than a modicum of justification in being upset with PM Modi when he's seen to publicly break bread with the same cast of characters who have attacked him personally and spent their considerable resources to not only stop him politically but to destroy his personal reputation and even eliminate him physically.

To that emotional, dedicated supporter (me included) watching PM Modi molly coddle the larger anti-NaMo universe is a tad bit frustrating.  From attending weddings in prominent Congress families to generously buying ads on sickular media outlets to inviting known NaMo haters to 'train' govt. employees on social media, the list seems to keep growing.

Moreover, these actions seem to suggest that our PM is asking his dedicated political soldiers to take a hike.

Dig deeper and these irritants seem to have a method behind the madness.  PM Modi is following the same doctrine in going after both Dawood and Sonia.

The D Company's ecosystem easily rivals that of C Company's (aka Congress Party).  NDA could easily pursue the many assets that support D and his nefarious activities across India and abroad.  He could make a public spectacle of this pursuit and gain political brownie points thus emerging a media darling as a crusader against Organized Terror.

A similar process could be applied to targeting the C Company.

But such a strategy would be counter productive and neither Dawood nor Sonia would suffer permanent damage.  At best they would suffer surface wounds and survive to fight another day.

Most importantly, targeting one or two Capos within these organizations would spread fear across within these organization and force all elements to unite behind the leader i.e. D and Sonia.

It would also signal the commencement of an undeclared war.  Neither Sonia nor Dawood are likely to sit back and watch as the PM makes a public spectacle of pursuing members of their extended crime families.

Even a Chidambaram or Chota Shakeel is a prize not worth pursuing unless it is to get the Queen and King of India Enemy Inc.

Sonia (like any leader of her stature) keeps a host of 'buffers' between her and her illegal acts.  MMS served just such a role (Coal Scam, 2G, etc.).

Hurting or leaning on these intermediaries will yield very little political dividend.  It is likely to have the opposite effect, in that other intermediaries will quickly close ranks around the queen.  The ensuing panic may engender acts of extreme stupidity.  

What is needed is a surgical strike targeting the head of the beast not her many appendages.

PM Modi's brain trust seems to have realized this dynamic.  Once you have severed the head of the beast, the body wont survive for too long.

The first variable in this 'Modi Doctrine' is to pursue the 'Head' and ignore all provocations and temptations to target smaller fringe players within Sonia and D's ecosystems.

With D Company this doctrine plays out linearly, but with Sonia other variables come into play.  

If the NDA govt is perceived to be directly and openly targeting Sonia, the latent sympathy that an electorally significant number of Indians continue to harbor for the Dynasty is likely to rear its ugly head.

Openly targeting Sonia also opens PM Modi to the charge of political vendetta.  Which could diminish the political impact of any interim judgement that can be extracted against Sonia or her immediate family members.

Another variable is timing.  Targeting Sonia (even in a supposedly open-and-shut case such as the National Herald Scam) is not a walk in the park.  As we have seen over the past few months, how the judiciary has been frightened (and/or Co-opted) into passing this case around like the hot potato it is.

Any politically significant ruling against Sonia could take years and may not arrive in time for the battle of 2019.  The trick then is to use the timing in NDA's favor by raising the profile of Sonia's perfidy around 2018.  Sonia should be tried and convicted in the court of public opinion.

PM Modi's current hands-off strategy is perfectly suited to manage all these variables and maximize the political gains by permanently painting Sonia as the Queen of Corruption.

There's a potential drawback to this strategy.  As CM of Gujarat the PM was able to blunt Congress' corruption charges very easily by pointing out that a Congress controlled CBI could find nothing on him.  Sonia's inability to corner CM Modi on corruption was perhaps the most significant contributing factor to 2014's historic mandate.

Come 2019 Sonia could make a similar argument.  Given her well known record of nefarious activities, her argument is unlikely to carry the same weight.

If you look past the noise of the day, you will see this doctrine playing out along favorable lines.

So my fellow Right Wingers, sit back, support your PM and let him do his job.