Sunday, November 1, 2015

The 'Modi' Doctrine: Weddings, Breaking Bread and going After Sonia

This is frustrating.  We social media, keyboard warriors played a small but important part in countering the enemies  of our beloved PM.  Tweet for tweet, blog for blog, fact-checking for fact-checking, few socio-political movements can claim such a contribution.

There's more than a modicum of justification in being upset with PM Modi when he's seen to publicly break bread with the same cast of characters who have attacked him personally and spent their considerable resources to not only stop him politically but to destroy his personal reputation and even eliminate him physically.

To that emotional, dedicated supporter (me included) watching PM Modi molly coddle the larger anti-NaMo universe is a tad bit frustrating.  From attending weddings in prominent Congress families to generously buying ads on sickular media outlets to inviting known NaMo haters to 'train' govt. employees on social media, the list seems to keep growing.

Moreover, these actions seem to suggest that our PM is asking his dedicated political soldiers to take a hike.

Dig deeper and these irritants seem to have a method behind the madness.  PM Modi is following the same doctrine in going after both Dawood and Sonia.

The D Company's ecosystem easily rivals that of C Company's (aka Congress Party).  NDA could easily pursue the many assets that support D and his nefarious activities across India and abroad.  He could make a public spectacle of this pursuit and gain political brownie points thus emerging a media darling as a crusader against Organized Terror.

A similar process could be applied to targeting the C Company.

But such a strategy would be counter productive and neither Dawood nor Sonia would suffer permanent damage.  At best they would suffer surface wounds and survive to fight another day.

Most importantly, targeting one or two Capos within these organizations would spread fear across within these organization and force all elements to unite behind the leader i.e. D and Sonia.

It would also signal the commencement of an undeclared war.  Neither Sonia nor Dawood are likely to sit back and watch as the PM makes a public spectacle of pursuing members of their extended crime families.

Even a Chidambaram or Chota Shakeel is a prize not worth pursuing unless it is to get the Queen and King of India Enemy Inc.

Sonia (like any leader of her stature) keeps a host of 'buffers' between her and her illegal acts.  MMS served just such a role (Coal Scam, 2G, etc.).

Hurting or leaning on these intermediaries will yield very little political dividend.  It is likely to have the opposite effect, in that other intermediaries will quickly close ranks around the queen.  The ensuing panic may engender acts of extreme stupidity.  

What is needed is a surgical strike targeting the head of the beast not her many appendages.

PM Modi's brain trust seems to have realized this dynamic.  Once you have severed the head of the beast, the body wont survive for too long.

The first variable in this 'Modi Doctrine' is to pursue the 'Head' and ignore all provocations and temptations to target smaller fringe players within Sonia and D's ecosystems.

With D Company this doctrine plays out linearly, but with Sonia other variables come into play.  

If the NDA govt is perceived to be directly and openly targeting Sonia, the latent sympathy that an electorally significant number of Indians continue to harbor for the Dynasty is likely to rear its ugly head.

Openly targeting Sonia also opens PM Modi to the charge of political vendetta.  Which could diminish the political impact of any interim judgement that can be extracted against Sonia or her immediate family members.

Another variable is timing.  Targeting Sonia (even in a supposedly open-and-shut case such as the National Herald Scam) is not a walk in the park.  As we have seen over the past few months, how the judiciary has been frightened (and/or Co-opted) into passing this case around like the hot potato it is.

Any politically significant ruling against Sonia could take years and may not arrive in time for the battle of 2019.  The trick then is to use the timing in NDA's favor by raising the profile of Sonia's perfidy around 2018.  Sonia should be tried and convicted in the court of public opinion.

PM Modi's current hands-off strategy is perfectly suited to manage all these variables and maximize the political gains by permanently painting Sonia as the Queen of Corruption.

There's a potential drawback to this strategy.  As CM of Gujarat the PM was able to blunt Congress' corruption charges very easily by pointing out that a Congress controlled CBI could find nothing on him.  Sonia's inability to corner CM Modi on corruption was perhaps the most significant contributing factor to 2014's historic mandate.

Come 2019 Sonia could make a similar argument.  Given her well known record of nefarious activities, her argument is unlikely to carry the same weight.

If you look past the noise of the day, you will see this doctrine playing out along favorable lines.

So my fellow Right Wingers, sit back, support your PM and let him do his job.





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