That UP election results will expedite creation of a nationwide anti-NaMo coalition is a given. PM Modi has engendered a sense of panic across India's political spectrum. Desperate times call for desperate measures and BJP's rivals are about to initiate a political orgy the likes of which the world hasnt seen since the decadent days of Greek/Roman empires.
All kidding aside, as I have always maintained, a MahaGatBandhan (MGB) coalition has a low bar to cross i.e. defeating PM Modi does not require victory or even crossing the half way mark. Keeping NDA around 240 seats and BJP around 210-220 will suffice. A deficit would impose coalition partners on BJP and conceding their pound of flesh will destroy PM's agenda, force compromises and diminish his stature as a Game changer.
At the very least this strategy will slow down if not stall the NaMo juggernaut.
But there are ways to counter this emerging evil confluence of political slugde.
PM Modi has confronted a small version in 2013 i.e. BJP's D4. The strategy he used to counter D4 was brilliant in its simplicity.
He went directly to the people by circumventing coalition partners, BJP leaders, media, 'intellectuals', etc.
However, given the enormity of the challenge a MGB represents, a direct-to-the-people tactic can only serve as a subset (albeit a core component) of a larger multi-pronged, multi year strategy.
BJP must aim for a Direct-to-people plus strategy to beat the MGB.
What follows are a set of ideas that could help shape the aforementioned strategy:
1. There's no way to dilute the 'NaMo Vs. the Rest' nature of Battle for 2019. 2019 will be a referendum on our beloved PM. His enemies understand that this is their last chance. Another 2014 like performance will push them beyond a point of no return.
BJP needs expand the scope of this battle beyond the PM and his performance. A MGB poses a formidable challenge as Bihar has shown us. One way to make this more effective is to start portraying it as a war of Clean Vs. Corrupt
By doing so BJP will squeeze every other contender out of the 'Clean politics' space. Pretenders such as AAP will be caught between two stools - join the Anti-NaMo coalition and be branded a corrupt 'also ran' or stand alone and eat into anti-BJP votes.
2. Double Down on Demonitization
Positioning as a war between Clean and Corrupt wont be enough. PM Modi must now go full throttle to destroy the corrupt. These will include key pieces on Sonia's chess board.
Watching an Ahmed Patel or a Chiddu in handcuffs will send a chill down the spine of prospective coalition builders/partners. A Maya or Mamta or Sharad will think twice before endorsing a grand coalition.
Sparing Sonia's immediate family should allow the BJP to keep that card available to be used at a later time. It could possibly get a Chiddu to fold and deliver the queen on a plea deal. It is not even necessary that cases are decided by 2019. The fact that the govt has gone after them would reassure Indian voters and further buttress BJP's credentials as a corruption fighter.
3. Seize Black Assets
Benami properties would hit the corrupt where it hits the most. For example if flats sold to corrupt politicians in high profile locations such as Adarsh are seized by the govt and publicly auctioned off with proceeds going directly to people's welfare the resulting public euphoria could rival the guillotine. T
The reason Demonitization has paid such rich political dividends was the spectacle of India's corrupt publicly losing their marbles.
High profile property seizures would hurt 'Politics of Patronage' by damaging their long term fixed assets. Everyone from Congress to Shiv Sena to DMK would be up in arms and run to be part of the coalition.
It as this point that the 'Clean Vs. Corrupt' battle cry will acquire a real edge.
The sight of a poor 'Chaiwala' destroying Mother India's enemies would light a revolutionary fire across India.
3. Muslim Women
Perhaps the single most important number to watch is the voting pattern of Muslim women. Any uptick in a lean toward the BJP even if marginal must be celebrated and harnessed.
While triple talaq is a great issue, more substantive work needs to be done to capture this (Potentially) restive constituency. The daily sight of ugly Mullahs dictating every aspect of their lives and watching their non-Muslim sisters enjoying freedoms they can only dream off is surely weighing on Muslim women.
If BJP can make a special constructive effort to win their support a variety of benefits will accrue as described here - http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2016/10/jai-shri-ram-triple-talaq-and-why-bjp.html
4. The Dalit Factor
Though BJP lost Bihar due to a united opposition one glaring factor was the absence of a credible face who could rival NitishK. In a national election things will be different and even a united opposition may find it difficult to prevent voters from defecting to the BJP.
The single biggest factor in breaking this coalition would be the Dalit vote bank. If Maya is decimated in UP elections, Dalit voters will be up for grabs.
A party led by a pro-poor, clean leader who is delivering on a wide range of promises would be a natural home for Dalits. Not only in UP but across India.
5. BJP's traditional vote bank
Some accounts have suggested that BJP's traditional vote bank - Baniyas in particular - have abandoned them post demonitization.
While Demo did hurt Indian businesses there are ways in which they have benefited tremendously. This must be celebrated by pointing out that assest prices have come down, harassment of honest businessmen has come down, frivolous cases filed against businesses have reduced, etc.
.....to be continued
All kidding aside, as I have always maintained, a MahaGatBandhan (MGB) coalition has a low bar to cross i.e. defeating PM Modi does not require victory or even crossing the half way mark. Keeping NDA around 240 seats and BJP around 210-220 will suffice. A deficit would impose coalition partners on BJP and conceding their pound of flesh will destroy PM's agenda, force compromises and diminish his stature as a Game changer.
At the very least this strategy will slow down if not stall the NaMo juggernaut.
But there are ways to counter this emerging evil confluence of political slugde.
PM Modi has confronted a small version in 2013 i.e. BJP's D4. The strategy he used to counter D4 was brilliant in its simplicity.
He went directly to the people by circumventing coalition partners, BJP leaders, media, 'intellectuals', etc.
However, given the enormity of the challenge a MGB represents, a direct-to-the-people tactic can only serve as a subset (albeit a core component) of a larger multi-pronged, multi year strategy.
BJP must aim for a Direct-to-people plus strategy to beat the MGB.
What follows are a set of ideas that could help shape the aforementioned strategy:
1. There's no way to dilute the 'NaMo Vs. the Rest' nature of Battle for 2019. 2019 will be a referendum on our beloved PM. His enemies understand that this is their last chance. Another 2014 like performance will push them beyond a point of no return.
BJP needs expand the scope of this battle beyond the PM and his performance. A MGB poses a formidable challenge as Bihar has shown us. One way to make this more effective is to start portraying it as a war of Clean Vs. Corrupt
By doing so BJP will squeeze every other contender out of the 'Clean politics' space. Pretenders such as AAP will be caught between two stools - join the Anti-NaMo coalition and be branded a corrupt 'also ran' or stand alone and eat into anti-BJP votes.
2. Double Down on Demonitization
Positioning as a war between Clean and Corrupt wont be enough. PM Modi must now go full throttle to destroy the corrupt. These will include key pieces on Sonia's chess board.
Watching an Ahmed Patel or a Chiddu in handcuffs will send a chill down the spine of prospective coalition builders/partners. A Maya or Mamta or Sharad will think twice before endorsing a grand coalition.
Sparing Sonia's immediate family should allow the BJP to keep that card available to be used at a later time. It could possibly get a Chiddu to fold and deliver the queen on a plea deal. It is not even necessary that cases are decided by 2019. The fact that the govt has gone after them would reassure Indian voters and further buttress BJP's credentials as a corruption fighter.
3. Seize Black Assets
Benami properties would hit the corrupt where it hits the most. For example if flats sold to corrupt politicians in high profile locations such as Adarsh are seized by the govt and publicly auctioned off with proceeds going directly to people's welfare the resulting public euphoria could rival the guillotine. T
The reason Demonitization has paid such rich political dividends was the spectacle of India's corrupt publicly losing their marbles.
High profile property seizures would hurt 'Politics of Patronage' by damaging their long term fixed assets. Everyone from Congress to Shiv Sena to DMK would be up in arms and run to be part of the coalition.
It as this point that the 'Clean Vs. Corrupt' battle cry will acquire a real edge.
The sight of a poor 'Chaiwala' destroying Mother India's enemies would light a revolutionary fire across India.
3. Muslim Women
Perhaps the single most important number to watch is the voting pattern of Muslim women. Any uptick in a lean toward the BJP even if marginal must be celebrated and harnessed.
While triple talaq is a great issue, more substantive work needs to be done to capture this (Potentially) restive constituency. The daily sight of ugly Mullahs dictating every aspect of their lives and watching their non-Muslim sisters enjoying freedoms they can only dream off is surely weighing on Muslim women.
If BJP can make a special constructive effort to win their support a variety of benefits will accrue as described here - http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2016/10/jai-shri-ram-triple-talaq-and-why-bjp.html
4. The Dalit Factor
Though BJP lost Bihar due to a united opposition one glaring factor was the absence of a credible face who could rival NitishK. In a national election things will be different and even a united opposition may find it difficult to prevent voters from defecting to the BJP.
The single biggest factor in breaking this coalition would be the Dalit vote bank. If Maya is decimated in UP elections, Dalit voters will be up for grabs.
A party led by a pro-poor, clean leader who is delivering on a wide range of promises would be a natural home for Dalits. Not only in UP but across India.
5. BJP's traditional vote bank
Some accounts have suggested that BJP's traditional vote bank - Baniyas in particular - have abandoned them post demonitization.
While Demo did hurt Indian businesses there are ways in which they have benefited tremendously. This must be celebrated by pointing out that assest prices have come down, harassment of honest businessmen has come down, frivolous cases filed against businesses have reduced, etc.
.....to be continued
