NaMo's Kavach Kundali

Karna's kavach Kundali were a boon given to him by his father.  As long as they remained on his person they made him indestructible.  No weapon could harm him.  His bigheartedness was exploited to steal them from him and make him mortal.  

This story comes to mind as I watch PM Modi's first real political challenge - The emerging chinks in his Kavach Kundali.  

NaMo's greatest political asset - his political Kavach Kundali - is his personal integrity.  As long as he's perceived as being honest and upright and immune to the spoils of political power he remains out of reach of any political weapon - legitimate or illegitimate.  Fair or unfair.  

But the day this armor is pierced he becomes politically mortal.  'Suit Boot ki Sarkar', 'Rafale', '30,000 crore' were all designed to rupture PM's kavach kundali and separate him from his greatest asset. 

Some may argue that this wont happen, cant happen.  That people are smart enough to detect this conspiracy.  But that is not the intention of Sonia's ecosystem.  The objective is to engender enough doubt in people's minds to demoralize BJP's support base and cause a rethink within the 'floating' vote that remains decisive in any contest. 

With 2019 emerging as a 'kante ki takkar', a fight to political death, this doubt, could be enough to sway 2-3% of the vote.  Enough in 30-40 seats to push BJP down to that 220 seats mark where a Congress coalition becomes easier and more viable than a NaMo led NDA formation. 

As suggested here - https://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2015/07/about-time-gloves-came-off-get-sonia-now.html  

PM should have gone after Sonia a lot earlier.  It would have preempted the 'Rafale' conspiracy.  With only 4 months left for polls it may be too late to adopt it now.  

What can he do now?  Play a T20 political match in the Court of People's Opinion (the only court that matters). 

Leak to the public all the evidence unearthed about the Vadra/2G/CWG/etc. scams.  

A media blitzkrieg using social media and NOT BJP's official sources. 

Let the question 'What the hell has the BJP govt. done?' fester for a few weeks and unleash a fresh set of evidence on an almost every daily basis.  

Drown the Congress in its own scam.  Surely such a simply strategy is worth a shot.

Benefits of a BJP Defeat

1. Mayawati is not a possible PM choice of the MGB.  My greatest fear was Maya winning a meaningful number of seats in MP and Chattisgarh and using these wins to bargain for 60 seats in the Hindi heartland making her an undeclared PM candidate of the MGB.  It was the one variable that gave me sleepless nights as explained here - https://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2018/07/countering-mayawati.html














With Pappu emerging as leader of the Main contender Maya is left behind and Pappu becomes the defacto choice of leader of MahaGhatbandhan (MGB)
- Even some BJP veterans are attributing Congress' win to Pappu's emergence a viable counter to NaMo 
- The victories (at time of writing) are very close in both MP and Rajasthan.  This is not the rout anti-BJP forces are celebrating.  

It is the best possible outcome for the BJP.

2. Maya, Mamta will become very upset
Congress' strong showing will mean both Maya and Mamta (and other PM contenders) would have to bury their PM ambitions.  This will not go down well with them.  Congress will be in no mood to form an alliance by playing 2nd or 3rd fiddle in key states.  There's no way Maya gets Congress to concede seats in MP/Rajasthan for accommodation in UP.  What would this to Maya's enthusiasm to join a grand alliance.  An alliance in which she gains nothing but both Pappu and Akhilesh (UP ke ladke) use her as a stepping stone to capture the thrones at center and state levels. 

This may open the space for BJP to suggest an alliance with Maya for accomodation at the state level.  If nothing else, BJP could set the cat amongst the pigeons by insuniating an alliance through strategic media leaks. 


3. BJP wont be complacent
Election management is a necessary, not a sufficient condition to win elections.  BJP has failed to connect the dots for their voters:  Eradication of corruption = Money for development.  Simple messaging trumps complex facts and figures. 

4. Turnout 
One of BJP's biggest weakness is the muted enthusiasm of its supporters.  A massive defeat for BJP would scare BJP's core supporters and even tier 2 and 3 supporters to come out in greater numbers. 

5. A real fear has gripped Hindus.  In the weeks and months ahead, this fear will start spreading like wild fire.  Moreover, as Muslims/Christians start celebrating BJP's defeat their anti-Hindu face will be unmasked.  This has the potential to not only trigger a counter Hindu-consolidation but also drive turnout come election day.  BJP must nurture and harness this fear by (for instance) making tangible progress on Ram Temple or education reforms.