Limitations of Cow Politics- Part 1

Politics in any democratic set up is dictated by an innate need to create wedge issues.  Conservatives are more prone to relying on wedge issues as we have witnessed with the 'veil' issue in the recently concluded Canadian national elections.

Having gained a handsome political return via the Ram Janma Bhoom Movement (RJBM) BJP and its many clones (Shiv Sena, VHP, Hindu Maha sabha, etc.) have come to view wedge issues as their political bread and butter.  In other words this is their primary product.

Create a wedge issue, fire up the base and use the resulting momentum to gain a political windfall at the hustings.

Cow politics falls within this paradigm.  But is a deeply flawed strategy.  One which will only bring a very limited incremental gain to BJP's political kitty.

This is not to suggest that banning cow slaughter is a bad administrative initiative or a sub par political promise (more on this later).  What I'm suggesting is that the politics over Cow slaughter is a flawed strategy and must be dialed down immediately before it causes further damage to larger Hindutva goals.

Before readers accuse me of being a HINO (Hindu in Name Only), let me assure you that despite having lived in the west for a while I have never even tasted beef.  That is a personal preference.  A democratic society should not impose its food preferences on its citizens.

In the 21st century adults living in a free society should have the freedom to eat, drink, smoke anything their heart desires, as long as it does not impinge on the fundamental rights of other citizens.

Now back to the issue at hand.  Why is Cow politics so flawed?

Food preference as a political issue is a good issue to emphasize in a society where food is readily available to all citizens.  India now has the dubious distinction of having the largest number of people surviving on less than a dollar a day.

This group of citizens also tend to be dedicated voters.  Given that their destinies are dictated by prevailing power structures, voting fpr a benevolent political dispensation is their primary source of sustenance.  

This poor, marginalized voter is likely to ask a very simple every time he or she faces the wrath of his Hindu brothers or the state apparatus - "How is it that our well-to-do Hindu brothers go to war over a dead cow but seldom lift a finger over a dead dalit or 1000s of malnourished children".

One doesnt have to be an educated analyst to come up with this query.  Cow politics will unite the dedicated Hindutva vote bank but it is likely to subtly alienate those Hindus who have been kept at the fringes of Hindu society.

Even though slaughter houses may employ largely non-Hindu employees, many Hindu castes depend on cow parts as their primary raw materials.

Moochis (Cobblers) are a good example of this dynamic.  This caste not only manufactures and repairs leather footwear but is also engaged in tanneries.

Pursued beyond a point (Administratively banning beef) cow politics hurts Hindu unity and renders it susceptible to the charge of "In Hinduism an animal's life is more valuable than that of a lower caste".

So where do we draw the line and what are possible alternative Hindutva wedge issues which will bring BJP political dividends without breaking the bank?

Coming up in Part 2.

India Shining Part Deux and Why we Right Wingers should stop being so complacent

These are still early days.  17 months is too short a time to evaluate any government, let alone one which was ushered in with such great expectations.  Having said that, even PM Modi’s worst critics will concede that this govt has accomplished more in its short tenure than any previous dispensation.  The question is, will it be enough for BJP to retain power in 2019.

To put it bluntly, as things stand today, it won’t be enough.

I’m not suggesting that a Rahul Gandhi led UPA will trounce a PM Modi led NDA in 2019.  The trick is that he doesn’t have to.  Back in 2004, Sonia Gandhi did not trounce an Atal Bihari Vajpayee led NDA.  Their seat counts were almost identical.  But she did manage to defeat the NDA.

Moreover, under current circumstances the bar is set even lower.  All Rahul and his cronies across the secular spectrum have to do is ensure a hung parliament where BJP does not cross the 272 mark on its own.

Any scenario where BJP is kept close to the 200 mark is a victory for the opposition.  Because it forces PM Modi’s hand by compelling him to seek support from the likes of Shiv Sena and AIADMK and other morally ambiguous political outfits.  A hungry, wounded Shiv Sena, for instance would definitely demand its pound of flesh and handicap NDA to such an extent that governance would take a back seat with survival becoming the primary purpose of PM Modi’s second stint.

Why this despondency you’re probably asking?  Here’s why.

A.      ‘Perfect’ is getting in the way of ‘Good’

BJP’s primary voter – the urban middle class has started sensing the green shoots.   India’s GDP growth rate is now the highest in the world, it has becoming easier to do business in India, PM’s foreign trips have started yielding results in the form of strong FDI infusion.

But these are middle class metrics.  The lower middle class and the poor don’t understand these metrics.  Most importantly these do not represent tangible data points to this segment of the voter base.

This voter base has one primary data point and that is inflation.  While it is rightly argued that inflation rate has been brought down, prices are still increasing and that increase is occurring off of an already inflated base gifted to the country by the previous UPA govt.

Everything any govt. does is viewed by the poor through the prism of prices - even corruption.  Corruption acquires the requisite political potency only when accompanied by a back breaking rise in prices.

And frankly PM Modi has failed on this account.  His heart and the measures he has taken are in the right place.

But the PM may be letting the ‘Perfect’ get in the way of the ‘Good’.

The PM’s plan is sensible and appropriate one: 

Get land bill passed so that vital infrastructure can be built. 

This infrastructure will include a strong and wide network of interstate highway and rail system, powered by renewable power sources, which in turn will entice investors to build value added industries along the industrial corridor.

These industries in turn will generate the jobs and trigger an economic boom.

The logical thinking is that voters will associate the economic boom with NDA’s policies and initiatives and reward it handsomely at the hustings.

But what if this train of events is halted or muted and BJP is forced to enter 2019 with a slew of half-finished projects and a lopsided, uneven economic recovery?  PM Modi’s ‘Make in India’ is only just taking off.  Most factories required 2-3 years from project conception to roll-out.  That puts us bang in the middle of 2018 and start of the election cycle.  That gives no time for people to imbibe benefits of these initiatives and associate the accompanying feel-good factor to the BJP.

Moreover, there are just too many links in this chain of ‘trickle down’ economics.  Every link must be delivered in record time across a large swath of a diverse socio-economic and geographic terrain to be able to make a difference in 2019.

One component of the aforementioned industrial corridor will constitute the much needed ‘cold chain’.

Though this plan is on the right track it disregards ground realities.  By the time the PM executes on his plan and implements it, he may have run out of time.  An electorate reeling under burden of high prices and little tangible improvement to their daily lives will be willing to vote against the BJP or at the very least stay at home come Election Day.

It is important to note that all other issues ranging from relations with Pakistan to even war on terror are peripheral to electoral outcomes.  Surely certain segments of the electorate are swayed by these concerns but those segments are already in BJP’s camp. 

Given PM Modi’s personal charisma and appeal, it won’t be difficult to fire up the faithful and drive them to election booths.  But would that be enough to win in 2019.  And it wasn’t in 2014.  2014 was won thanks to a massive surge in independent and even minority voters who voted for Mr. Modi (and not the BJP).

As described here (http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2011/06/understanding-indian-electorate.html), BJP starts with 65% of the population as a potential voter base.  The poor and lower middle class don’t have the luxury of time to watch TV debates, read Op Eds and carefully sift through party manifestos to come to an informed decision.

Most will vote based on how and what they experience in their daily lives.  The trickle-down economics PM Modi is attempting will fall short in 2019. 

Neither BJP nor India can afford that.

B.      Rahul as a ‘Non-Starter’ leads to Opposition Unity

There’s one other political dynamic which has started playing out across India.  Anti-BJP votes have started to coalesce behind BJP’s primary opposition.  More so if this opposition has a credible face and a modicum of a track record in governance BJP will have its hands full.

With Congress weakening across India, the resulting vacuum will create a very 2004-like dynamic in the run up to 2019.  Rahul will (much as Sonia did in 2004) be willing to concede significant political space to opposition parties to engineer a ‘Maha-coalition’.  With an undeclared PM candidate, such a coalition could easily reduce BJP to 200 or 220 seats.  If by some miracle the ‘Maha-coalition’ is able to settle on a credible face (an aggressive, untainted MMS like figure), BJP will find itself in a soup.

We’re seeing this process of ‘unity’ already playing out in Bihar (after first working out in Delhi)

C.      Media’s anti-BJP strategy is working

To war hardened Right Wing core BJP Supporters issues of the day such as - Suite-boot ki sarkar, Endless foreign trips, anti-LAB, Parliament deadlock, Beef ban, Dadri, Khattar, Church-attacks, etc. seem like random, darts-at-a –board actions on the part of BJP’s opponents.

But make no mistake; this is a carefully calibrated strategy on part of Sonia’s empire.  It is striking back.  The objective of this strategy is not to score a decisive KO against the government.  It is to create a perception amongst the poor and lower middle class that BJP is a government for the rich, by the rich and off the rich.

Try explaining to India’s poor masses how PM Modi’s foreign trips will attract much need FDI which in turn will drive India’s economic recovery.  There are just too many dots to connect for a segment of voters more concerned about how they will feed their families.

This voter forms his/her perception based on how they are treated.  When the rich and mighty can get away with looting the nation (and the PM promised he would go after them – hammer and tongs) why are they being harassed on a daily basis by their local police and local administrations?  Despite giving their favorite leader a decisive mandate why can’t he use his “absolute” power to bend the rules to do them some favors?  They aren’t asking for 1000s of crores in right offs.  A mere guarantee of financial-security would do for now.

If rules can be ignored for a Mallya or Ambani why not for the Khushwaha driving his cab on the streets of Mumbai or Delhi.

Arvind “thulla” Kejriwal understands this sentiment and was able to trounce BJP by using rhetoric to win big.  That he’s a miserably incompetent administrator will restrict his political appeal.  But he did get the first part of this political equation right.

Media and their Congress masters also understand these factors and have spent the last year single mindedly painting the PM as an elitist who has lost touch with his roots.  And the mud is beginning to stick.

Surely, initiatives such as Swaach Bharat and Jan Dhan Yojana are exactly what the country needs.  These are also the ‘Efficient Mai-Baap’ strategy proposed in this post.  But the PM needs to extend these even further.  So that people can experience the ‘Modi Miracle’ first hand and not through ‘trickle down economics’

So what is the fix?

The Fix:  Reverse Engineer Campaign 2019 – Coming up in Part 2

Is PM Modi's NDA heading for 'India Shining 2'?

Is PM Modi hurtling toward another ‘India Shining’ moment in 2019?

To analyze this scary scenario we must first understand that phenomenon called ‘India Shining’?

By almost any yardstick ABV’s NDA govt had delivered on all fronts.  After a decade of scandals and coalition fiascos, ABV gave India unprecedented economic growth and stability.  Indian foreign policy acquired a new edge and sense of urgency.  There was a real sense of India having turned the corner and poised to take its rightful place with the big boys of global politics.

Lok sabha results of 2004 shattered those dreams.  Many political pundits blamed the flawed ‘India Shining’ campaign devised by Pramod Mahajan.  But the root cause lay much deeper.  The battle was lost long before campaigning commenced.  At best the campaign could have been tweaked to suggest an ‘India Rising’.  But that too would have failed to get BJP close to the magic figure of 182 seats.

Team BJP was gung ho about its prospects.  Most pundits and psephologists predicted a comfortable majority for NDA.  A deeply divided and fragmented opposition had no counter to the stature and popularity of ABV.  Sonia “We have two hundreyd and seventhy thoo seats” Gandhi was seen as a weak counter to ABV.  NDA had a solid record of governance (GDP, jobs, infrastructure, foreign policy) to present to Indian voters.  What could possibly go wrong?  But go wrong, it did.  And left India with a lost decade.

As PM Modi’s NDA 2 hums along on multiple fronts, it is hard to imagine a repeat of ‘India Shining’ in 2019.  But constraints of time, resources and political wiggle room are conspiring to land NDA2 in just such a ‘Chakravuyh’.  The emerging political dynamics in the run up to 2019 are eerily similar to those prevailing in 2002-2004.

Coming Soon:

Part 2:  Why NDA 2 may be heading towards ‘India Shining 2’

Part 3:  How to prevent a repeat of ‘India Shining’