Sunday, March 18, 2018

Benami Property - Demonitization 2.0

Demonitization was an unparalleled success.  Because it was seen by the aam aadmi as a bold step with which to defeat India's high and mighty.  Watching everyone from Mulayam to Raj Thackeray to Mamata and ofcourse Sonia, squirm over the destruction of their ill gotten wealth was drug like no other - A drug Indians had never experienced. 

But DeMo is increasingly becoming a non-issue or worse turning against the PM.  Why is that?  

It is seen as a sacrifice asked of and made by India's aam aadmi while little has been done to hurt the big cats - the Sonias/Niravs/Mallyas of the world. 

The halo effect generated by DeMo can be retrieved and deployed in 2019 if PM Modi takes the step he has been promising but hasnt yet delivered - Going after Benami Properties. 

Some have argued that another DeMo like measure would anger and frustrate Indians and hurt BJP's chances in 2019. 

But it is a risk worth taking.  The policy could be fenced in so that its impact on the aam aadmi can be restricted.  As it is the middle and lower middle classes do not own benami real estate. 

Given that DeMo has brought a wide swath of Indians under the tax umbrella, it should be relatively simple to match property records with declared income to quickly identify those who could be owning a property beyond their known sources of income. 

Further more, only properties beyond a certain threshold could be targeted - say greater than Rs. 1 Cr. 

These measures would exclude 95% of Indians.  Watching the high and mighty squirm and sweat as their properties are auctioned off would electrify the electorate and bring back corruption as a central issue. 

Further more, property prices would drop allowing a larger pool of Indians to own homes.  The rising demand would boost the wider economy and add anywhere from 0.2-0.5% to the growth rate. 

It is a near perfect weapon with which to win 2019.  But will the PM bite the bullet?