1.
You can’t go to war with a message that says: “Vote
for us, we’re less corrupt”
2.
When attacked by CONgress, aim for the Queen and
her brood.
a.
Even if you get buried by CBI, etc. you will
emerge a martyr, a hero to your people
b.
You could even play the regional card like NTR
did when Rajiv humiliated AP CM
3.
BJP starts with a 20-25% handicap
a.
Minority voters will gang up against BJP
b.
Most states have a threshold of 40% vote share
to win a comfortable majority of seats
i.
Having a lock on 20% minority votes gives
CONgress a huge head start
ii.
While BJP has to win half of the remaining 80%,
CONgress has to win just 25% of these votes to cross the aforementioned
threshold
iii.
As explained here - http://centreright.in/2011/06/political-market-segmenttarget-and-deliver/#.UYr34CnD_mI BJP’s real pool of voters come from approx.65
to 70% of voters. 10% non-minority
voters (the elite) rarely vote
iv.
This further dents BJP’s chances
4.
BJP’s voter base is different
a.
This has been evident since (at least) 2005 when
the Pramod Mahajan scandal broke
i.
If BJP is perceived as CONgress’ mini-me, BJP’s
voter base will simply sit it out
ii.
CONgress, Mayawati, SP, etc have dedicated caste
and religious vote banks that have a different set of demands beyond good and
clean governance
iii.
BJP’s vote bank demands – Clean AND Good
Governance
iv.
Hindutva is a nice to have. Unlike RoL and RoP voters, BJP voters will
not forgive/overlook a shady leadership which swears by Hindutva
v.
NaMo is the best example of this maxim – Clean
and Good Governance with Hindutva elements kept on a short lease, in Hindutva’s
original laboratory
5.
Mayawati’s win in 2007 was the first indication
that people are tired of coalitions and instability
a.
When much-abused Brahmins voted for her in large
numbers, days of coalition politics were numbered
i.
Mayawati 2007
ii.
UPA2
iii.
Maharashtra 2009
iv.
UP 2012
v.
Gujarat 2012
b.
But there’s a caveat and it is this
i.
To harness a decisive mandate, voters must be
presented a clear choice
ii.
At the national level NaMo is the only option
and given a clear choice people will give him (not the BJP) a decisive mandate
c.
Example:
If Maharastra was presented with a decisive leader with a can-do attitude/reputation, CONgress-NCP would
be history
6.
Karnataka results are a warning for both Sonia
and BJP’s D4: Your days are numbered
a.
Karnataka results suggest a high level of voter
awareness
b.
A well informed voter is a decisive voter
c.
Most importantly Indian voter is PISSED OFF
d.
The anger is palpable – Politics of Patronage
and cynicism is on its last legs
7.
The biggest winner of Karnataka Polls: Narendra Modi
a.
“Here he goes again” before you spout that
sentiment read this carefully
b.
BJP has little choice left
c.
Resolve of BJP’s cadre will grow stronger vis-à-vis
NaMo
d.
With LKA and AK identified as villains any
attempts to engineer a coup in their favor will be met with an open cadre-led
revolt
e.
Fear of UPA3 will grow with this Karnataka win
and make BJP voters more eager to vote – ensuring solid turnout
f.
Complacency will be rooted out “Remember
Karnataka”
g.
Just as massive mandates have led to a short
honeymoons and rapid voter disenchantment in UP and Bihar, so will Karnataka
regret its mistake within 12 months – just in time for the LS elections
h.
With 9 CM contenders and a political machine
hungry after 7 years in the wilderness, scams will multiply – BJP must prepare
to pounce
i.
Karnataka will become Exhibit A of all that is
wrong with the CONgress
8.
When allegations of corruption emerge – act swiftly
and decisively
a.
What destroyed BJP in Karnataka was not the
removal of Yeddy but the accompanying drama
b.
LKA was able to bounce back from Jain-hawala
scandal thanks to his prompt resignation and his pledge not to return to public
office till his name was cleared
c.
Try to enforce strong discipline amongst local
and national leadership vis-a-vis corruption
i.
NaMo’s perfect reputation shielded him from lethal
political vendetta
ii.
Learn from it
9.
Corruption has emerged as THE issue
a.
Contrary to conventional wisdom it was
corruption that destroyed BJP’s chances
10.
In politics 1+1 is not always = 2. If Yeddy had stayed in the BJP, CONgress
would have gotten only slightly fewer seats.
11.
At best, BJP would have been forced into a
coalition with JDS. A disastrous move
for 2014
12.
Recognize CONgress’ game plan – its favorite MO
a.
Divide opposition votes
i.
Either engineer splits – Keshubhai, Yeddy or
ii.
Create new opposition parties – RajT, Chiru,
Kejriwal
b.
BJP must guard against these entities and
neutralize them by
i.
Either co-opting them or
ii.
Destroying their credibility
13.
Arvind Kejriwal’s party will emerge as single
largest party in Delhi or the main opposition party
a.
Delhi BJP is perceived as CONgress’s B-team
b.
SheilaD survives in Delhi the same way Sonia
survives in India – on the tacit support of BJP’s opposition leadership
c.
AAP presents the aforementioned, viable
alternative, capable of harnessing voter disenchantment
