China's motivation in Pakistan is multifaceted.
The first two are well known
a) Corner India
b) Build a shorter, alternative route to middle eastern oil resources
But its more sinister objectives are less understood. When we understand these motives, we come to one simple conclusion -
The balkanization of Pakistan is well underway
Here's why:
China's Xinjiang province was once a majority Muslim state. As they did with Tibet, China used infusion of Han Chinese as a strategy to affect rapid demographic change so that muslims are now a minority in Xinjiang (45%).
China has poured billions of dollars into raising the standard of living in this natural resource rich territory which also happens to be China's biggest province.
But the economic imbalance between Han majority north and Muslim (Uyghur) dominated south is stark.
This Uyghur south has the potential to become China's Kashmir. A small yet motivated minority demanding a separate state based purely on a religious identity.
Clearly Chinese strategists have woken up to the threat radical Islam poses to this resource rich region. Surrounded as it is on 3 sides by states actively promoting radical, militant Islam.
China has assiduously maintained a neutral position in the war between the West and Islam, hoping perhaps to emerge as the predominant global super power from the resulting detritus much as USofA gain global preeminence in the aftermath of the 2nd world war.
Regular albeit infrequent terror attacks in Xinjiang have provided constant reminders to Beijing of the ulcer festering within its own territory, one which could be used by external powers to drag China into this war.
This realization seems to have dawned on Beijing in the aftermath of the 2011 attacks.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/02/world/asia/02china.html?_r=0
(Chinese authorities make a direct reference to training received by terrorists from across the border in Pakistan.)
Even a firm dressing down by their counterparts in the Red Army failed to persuade ISI from furnishing Beijing with a much needed reassurance that Pakistan's territory would not be used against Chinese interests.
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor must be seen in the backdrop of these dynamics.
China's calculation is 3 fold:
1. Make Pakistan economically dependent on China
2. Position substantial Chinese military assets within Pakistani territory so that terror can be handled at the source
3. Create a buffer zone on the Pakistani side of the border (i.e. Gilgit-Baltistan) which help insulate Xinjiang from direct Jihadi factories based in Pakistan
All three objectives are now close to being accomplished.
In corporate lexicon, Pakistanis view CPEC as an alliance where as the Chinese see it as an acquisition.
Much as a corporate raider takes a 5%-9% stake in a company before launching a bid for a majority stake, China has nibbled at the border districts with a definite plan to acquire more pieces if and when they become available.
Chinese acquisition of strategically significant pieces of Pakistani territory is in effect balkanization of Pakistan.
Another factor that buttresses this theory is this:
Pakistan's ruling Punjabi elite has funneled much of China's proposed $46 Billion investment through Punjab. Very little is being given to other regions.
It is likely that apart from pipelines and other energy related assets, very little will be invested in the other 3 Pakistani states (Balochistan, Sindh and FATA).
Is it possible that the Sharif family and the other 20-30 ruling clans of Pakistan have come to the conclusion that Pakistan will cease to exist sooner rather than later and they need to grab as much as they can so as to fortify their positions to deal with this eventuality.
Perhaps China has sensed this nervousness within Pakistani Punjabi ranks and is acting accordingly.
The $46 billion is unlikely to show up in its entirety. A country which cannot attract a cricket team to play a month long series is unlikely to attract investments with a decade long investment horizon.
Even the Chinese would be wary of investing in a country where a 15000 strong military unit has to be raised with the sole purpose of protecting commercial interests.
The cost of maintaining CPEC would be so high as to make the entire endeavor cost prohibitive in the long run.
The Chinese establishment understands this and views CPEC as a bait-and-switch strategy.
They dangle the carrot of investment and get both the Pakistani army and its ruling elite to give up key assets (Gawadar Port and Gilgit-Baltistan).
China gets a naval base right in the heart of Arabian sea at a very strategic location. If Americans blockade South China Sea, Chinese naval assets at Gawadar can be leveraged to target American oil tankers in the Persian Gulf.
What Pakistan has failed to recognize is that their strategic surrender to the Chinese has made it party to anti-Chinese strategies being developed across jittery western capitals.
Drying up of American military and economic aid must be seen in this light.
In fact President Obama's treaty with Iran should also be seen in this light (will blog about this in a few weeks).
But the bottomline is this:
In the grand game between super powers, there's only one certain loser i.e. Pakistan.
The first two are well known
a) Corner India
b) Build a shorter, alternative route to middle eastern oil resources
But its more sinister objectives are less understood. When we understand these motives, we come to one simple conclusion -
The balkanization of Pakistan is well underway
Here's why:
China's Xinjiang province was once a majority Muslim state. As they did with Tibet, China used infusion of Han Chinese as a strategy to affect rapid demographic change so that muslims are now a minority in Xinjiang (45%).
China has poured billions of dollars into raising the standard of living in this natural resource rich territory which also happens to be China's biggest province.
But the economic imbalance between Han majority north and Muslim (Uyghur) dominated south is stark.
This Uyghur south has the potential to become China's Kashmir. A small yet motivated minority demanding a separate state based purely on a religious identity.
Clearly Chinese strategists have woken up to the threat radical Islam poses to this resource rich region. Surrounded as it is on 3 sides by states actively promoting radical, militant Islam.
China has assiduously maintained a neutral position in the war between the West and Islam, hoping perhaps to emerge as the predominant global super power from the resulting detritus much as USofA gain global preeminence in the aftermath of the 2nd world war.
Regular albeit infrequent terror attacks in Xinjiang have provided constant reminders to Beijing of the ulcer festering within its own territory, one which could be used by external powers to drag China into this war.
This realization seems to have dawned on Beijing in the aftermath of the 2011 attacks.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/02/world/asia/02china.html?_r=0
(Chinese authorities make a direct reference to training received by terrorists from across the border in Pakistan.)
Even a firm dressing down by their counterparts in the Red Army failed to persuade ISI from furnishing Beijing with a much needed reassurance that Pakistan's territory would not be used against Chinese interests.
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor must be seen in the backdrop of these dynamics.
China's calculation is 3 fold:
1. Make Pakistan economically dependent on China
2. Position substantial Chinese military assets within Pakistani territory so that terror can be handled at the source
3. Create a buffer zone on the Pakistani side of the border (i.e. Gilgit-Baltistan) which help insulate Xinjiang from direct Jihadi factories based in Pakistan
All three objectives are now close to being accomplished.
In corporate lexicon, Pakistanis view CPEC as an alliance where as the Chinese see it as an acquisition.
Much as a corporate raider takes a 5%-9% stake in a company before launching a bid for a majority stake, China has nibbled at the border districts with a definite plan to acquire more pieces if and when they become available.
Chinese acquisition of strategically significant pieces of Pakistani territory is in effect balkanization of Pakistan.
Another factor that buttresses this theory is this:
Pakistan's ruling Punjabi elite has funneled much of China's proposed $46 Billion investment through Punjab. Very little is being given to other regions.
It is likely that apart from pipelines and other energy related assets, very little will be invested in the other 3 Pakistani states (Balochistan, Sindh and FATA).
Is it possible that the Sharif family and the other 20-30 ruling clans of Pakistan have come to the conclusion that Pakistan will cease to exist sooner rather than later and they need to grab as much as they can so as to fortify their positions to deal with this eventuality.
Perhaps China has sensed this nervousness within Pakistani Punjabi ranks and is acting accordingly.
The $46 billion is unlikely to show up in its entirety. A country which cannot attract a cricket team to play a month long series is unlikely to attract investments with a decade long investment horizon.
Even the Chinese would be wary of investing in a country where a 15000 strong military unit has to be raised with the sole purpose of protecting commercial interests.
The cost of maintaining CPEC would be so high as to make the entire endeavor cost prohibitive in the long run.
The Chinese establishment understands this and views CPEC as a bait-and-switch strategy.
They dangle the carrot of investment and get both the Pakistani army and its ruling elite to give up key assets (Gawadar Port and Gilgit-Baltistan).
China gets a naval base right in the heart of Arabian sea at a very strategic location. If Americans blockade South China Sea, Chinese naval assets at Gawadar can be leveraged to target American oil tankers in the Persian Gulf.
What Pakistan has failed to recognize is that their strategic surrender to the Chinese has made it party to anti-Chinese strategies being developed across jittery western capitals.
Drying up of American military and economic aid must be seen in this light.
In fact President Obama's treaty with Iran should also be seen in this light (will blog about this in a few weeks).
But the bottomline is this:
In the grand game between super powers, there's only one certain loser i.e. Pakistan.
