Wednesday, December 11, 2019

Citizenship Amendment Bill - The Unceremonious Death of Sickularism

As accepted, CAB has triggered sickulars across India.  Just as they were coming to terms with the scrapping of Article 370, Team NaMo has delivered another knock out blow.  

PM Modi is on a roll.  God Bless Him.  

Neither BJP's actions nor Sickular reactions should come as a surprise to even the casual observer of goings on in India.  What is, however, a big surprise is the muted response from the usual suspects. SP, BSP, Nitish, NCP and even the Congress have paid little more than lip service to the arguments opposing this bill. 

It suggests a fundamental, tectonic shift taking place in the thinking within India's secular political establishment.  

The past 10 years have witnessed a complete dynastic takeover of Indian politics.  But this takeover has had to contend with a growing list of claimants from within the family ranks. Akhilesh has his uncles and cousins, Pawar has his nephews and grand nephews, etc. 

Within this dynamic, India's sickular establishment must now come to terms with a threat that will only grow exponentially in the coming years. 

The rise of the Muslim vote.  Heretofore, Muslims have been a useful political tool.  Giving their votes en bloc to those who succumb to the worse elements within Islam's extremist leadership.  

However a rapidly growing Muslim population is likely to yield home grown parties such as Owaisi's which can legitimately claim that they have reached a critical mass so as to win 30-40 Lok Sabha seats on their own. 

A second possibility is the rise of competing Muslim parties which will further sideline sickular established parties and only bargain with them in post poll scenarios. 

Both scenarios present a disturbing choice to Sonia, Pawar and their ilk.  

In the current paradigm, Sickular parties begin with a head start, a handicap if you will.  The dedicated 15-20% muslim vote allows them an easy path to victory.  

If this vote bank is no longer available to them, their chances of ever returning to power with a comfortable majority are slim to none.  A fragmented govt with squeeze out the close family members giving rise to competing rival parties laying claim to a common family legacy.  Shiv Sena/MNS being a good example. 

Moreover, the rise of Muslim parties will drive Hindus to unite as a vote bank.  BJP would be the sole beneficiary of this consolidation. 

The muted, almost comatose response of sickular parties must be taken as a tacit approval.  Pawar/Sonia and Co need the CAB as much as the BJP. 

BJP now has a silent ally in its war on Islamism.  Dont be surprised if these parties 'support' BJP when voter lists are purged off of illegal Bangladeshi infiltrators.  

Sickularism is dying an unceremonious death.  This is the greatest victory of PM Modi and his team.