Short Game Over Long Game - Has PM Modi his own Magic Mantra #Elphinston

I can claim with the least bit of exaggeration that I have watched every speech made by CM Modi.  Every speech that was posted on Youtube.  

His first reelection bit in 2007 was won on the basis of a corruption free sarkar which provided 24x7 power and implemented several small but targeted schemes with a level of efficiency seldom seen in India. 

One of these 'smaller' schemes was the building of 1 lakh plus check dams across Gujarat which helped put Gujarat on the map as an agricultural state. 

In addition urban Gujarat was helped by small schemes of its own.  CM Modi was fond of displaying his success by saying "Every where you go in Gujarat you will see signs of progress.  A bus stand here, a public bathroom there, a new school here...."  and so on and so forth.  

His Long game (24x7 Power, Investor summit, etc.) was strong even then, but it was supplemented by a very strong, locally focused short game.  

This short game resulted in locally focused, visible signs of progress.  It reinforced the CM's claims that he was working tirelessly to bring them progress. 

Clearly, a PM cannot get 'local' beyond a certain point.  Building a Foot-over-Bridge must be the responsibility of the local officials.  

But the nature of 2014's mandate is such that every failure will be pinned on  the PM.  The upside to this dynamic is that credit for every success will also land at his feet.  

Through design or by accident, 2019 may evolve into a contest, not between NDA and UPA or 2014 vs. 2019 but between BJP and BJP i.e. a referendum on its performance.  UPA's scams may be drowned in the media created noise of how BJP hasnt delivered on its big promises.

Indians have a very short memory and more importantly they see Govt. as govt. Trying to explain to them that an MP cannot solve local problems falls on deaf ears. 

A string of tragedies, most, if not all of which should be laid at the door step of previous Congress govts. are becoming closely associated with BJP's record of governance. 

A middle class struggling with GST and Demonitization are fertile breeding grounds for media's new campaign "BJP doesnt work".

Early feedback suggests this campaign is gaining traction even with BJP voters.  Left unaddressed it could snatch vital seats from the BJP. 

 BJP may feel that it could replace its die-hard, loyal middle class voters with their new found Dalit/MBC/OBC/Poor voters.  

But this segment is even more fickle than the middle class.  Given promises of bigger sops could trigger an electorally significant exodus towards a fresh faced UPA. 

The bottom line is this:  PM Modi must go back to his time as CM and introduce some of the 'short game' that made him unbeatable in Gujarat.  

Start with 'Garib Kalyan Mela'

GST, Demontization and 2019

It would seem that an almost relentless pounding from Sonia's evil ecosystem has finally found its mark.  If not on the bulls eye plate, on the wall from which said bull's eye is hanging. 

 The double whammy of Modi sarkar's operation clean up - Demo and GST - has India's middle and upper middle class reeling.  Prices have shot up.  High end Real estate markets in most major cities have crashed.  PM Modi's old enemies (and some new ones) have emerged from the wood work with the same old doomsday scenario. 

[Before I go any further, let me point out that there's a real danger of the Modi Sarkar being branded as 'arrogant' and the charge sticking.  An anti-middle class, 'suit boot ki sarkar'.  BJP cannot afford to lose its middle class stronghold.  One that has stood by it through thick and thin.  More on this later]

But like those previous predictions, this latest one may also prove to be off the mark.  There are two reasons for this: 

1. Modi Sarkar has plenty of time for both Demo and GST to play out and settle down. 

2. Narendra Damodardas Modi 

Allow me to take you down memory lane.  By 2006 I had become convinced that NaMo was the future.  I was scrutinizing his track record with a level of brutal honesty that I had never used for any other political leader.  It was a natural outcome of belonging to a generation betrayed by a string of 'Great Brown Hopes' - From Rajiv Gandhi to VP Singh and finally LK Advani. 

One of CM Modi's greatest achievements in his first full term as CM (From 2002 to 2007) was delivery 24x7 uninterrupted power to Gujarat and turning Gujarat Power board from a loss making entity to a financially healthy and self sustainable body. 

This was a stellar achievement in a country where even the capital city experienced major load shedding - that very Indian euphemism for extended power cuts. 

In the process of implementing his vision, CM Modi had imposed stringent penalties of power thieves.  A key segment in this group of power thieves were a section of farmers.  No political party had ever survived by confronting the Agri lobby.  Post independence Indian political history was littered with obituaries of leaders who had tried to tame this politically potent, electorally powerful group. 

CM Modi had not only stopped power theft but imposed stringent penalties and filed court cases against farmers for stealing power.  A group accustomed to never paying for power was being held accountable. Over 1 lakh farmers were in the dock. 

In mid 2007 Arun Jaitley (AJ) was appointed state incharge for Gujarat elections to be held in early December of the same year. 

News reports were gleefully predicting an electoral setback for CM Modi thanks to his tough stand on power thefts and confronting the agri lobby.  

Several credible news reports claimed that AJ made a passionate plea to CM Modi to rescind his orders, withdraw cases filed against farmers.   Failing which he risked losing the imminent, make or break election. 

NaMo refused to make any concessions.  Come what may. 

Now consider the scenario in 2007.  CM Modi had been painted as public enemy No. 1.  Even his own party men were keeping a distance from him.  A set back in 2007 would not only mean the end of his political career.  His enemies would not sit back and allow him to fade into the sunset.  They would come after him, with all means possible.  His assassination was a real possibility.  

Despite these odds NaMo stood firm and did not deviate from his path.  

I was both petrified and curious.  What the hell was this man thinking.  Electoral cost of announcing an amnesty was minimal.  The risk of not announcing one was unimaginable. 

When BJP pulled off an almost 2/3rds majority I was curious to find out how the Agri section had voted.  It took a few months, but around March 2008 post-election analysis threw up a pleasant surprise.  The very segments on which CM Modi had imposed a 'draconian' regulation had voted for him in unprecedented numbers. 

NaMo and his convictions had won.  

Demo and GST are likely to witness a similar outcome.  There's a very simple reason for this.  His personal integrity. 

Hun Khato Nathi, Khava Deto Nathi - I dont take or tolerate bribes. 

His clean, unblemished track record of preventing corruption creates an impregnable shield around him.  It allows him to take harsh measures because people perceive it as an honest attempt to fix India's ugly, exploitative system. 

Once the shock of GST dissipates and prices stabilize, even his most vocal critics will come round to the view that he has done the right thing. 

Take Real Estate for instance.  Only a very tiny fraction of Indians could afford to buy a house worth more than Rs. 10 lakhs.  Let that sink in.  You couldnt find a hut in Mumbai's slums for that amount. 

A million dollars would fetch you a spacious beach front condo in Miami.  In pre Demo Mumbai Rs. 6.7 crores would fetch you what?  A tiny apartment in Bandra, on noisy crowded street with access to schools with little space and exorbitant fees.  

Pre Demo India was an India built for the tiny minority of upper middle class.  A class that had circumvented the need to engage with the govt. apart from securing the necessary certificates and licenses.  Upper middle class India had insulated itself from India. 

You couldnt really blame them.  A corrupt, cruel political/bureaucratic system had little to offer this class.  Given the chance they had found ways around it.  

Private schools, tanker supplied water, access to colleges in America/Europe were just some of the luxuries this class could afford. 

And mind you, I belong to this class.  I know them like the back of my hand. 

Even the middle class aspires to this strata and a large number do achieve the upgrade within a decade. 

The resulting wealth gap is what brought NaMo to power.  As people absorb the importance and imperative nature of his moves, they will certainly come round to share his wisdom. 

18 months allows for this realization to sink in.  But these 18 months are crucial. 

PM Modi will have to take additional steps (which I'm certain he has in the pipeline) for the been fits of a common market to sink in. 

For instance, my trader friends have highlighted an important benefit of GST.  With agri goods moving more expeditiously, wastage is coming down which has translated into increased supply.  This should help stabilize prices of essential commodities. 

But more needs to be done.  The massive upgrade to India's road and power networks should be leveraged to attract private players such as FedEx and Deutche Post to build transportation hubs.  

GST makes a national transportation grid a real possibility.  

Further more, BJP needs to focus on addressing concerns related to its urban middle class vote.  One such area is Education.  A sensible policy which brings in private players would go a long way in increasing seats and upgrading existing govt schools. 

There's no reason why BJP cannot offer land and other incentives for private schools to be opened by Indians.  Foreign investment could be restricted to higher education.

The battle began on May 14th 2014.  BJP has neither won it nor lost it.  But as explained in previous posts, 220 seats is still a 'defeat' for the BJP. 

 

Narayan Rane and emergence of the new Opposition Voter

PM Modi's appeal rests on three pillars:  

1. His Performance
2. His humble antecedants
and above all 
3. His personal integrity 

Different segments of India's electorate find each (or a combination of the 3) of these qualities appealing to varying degrees. 

The stark contrast these qualities draw vis-a-vis his competitors provides an added potency to their appeal. 

In a cesspool of degenerate pimps and prestitutes, who would sell their own mothers for power, PM Modi shines like a beacon of hope and represents the best of Indian culture of that much maligned Bharatiya Sanskriti. 

As I have pointed out in earlier posts UPA's threshold of 'victory' is to hold BJP at or below 220 seats. 

It is now accepted wisdom that only a united opposition can stop the Modi Juggernaut.  

Two forces have come into play:  
1. The conventional coalescing of political parties and 
in the absence of political unity
2. Divide BJP's core Hindu vote
(More on #2 here - http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2017/09/the-plan-b-to-counter-pm-modi.html)

(there's a third more potent force, read on to learn what it is)

If the flirtation with Narayan Rane is any indication, it is the second factor which seems to have spooked BJP and Team Modi. 

Purely on paper, Rane would represent good candidate to counter that rising tide of Maratha asmita.  But in real electoral terms, that is where his usefulness ends.  Here's why he should be kept out of the party or even the NDA:

1. Narayan Rane is a mini version of Chidambaram/Pawar/Sonia 
2. He's not some Bihari politicians few have heard of outside his little burrow.  He has made his bones in Mumbai
3. Though he's a Maratha, his base is coastal Maharashtra not exactly a Maratha Power base.  A better alternative would be an older (so as not to hurt Fadnavis) Maratha leader from the sugar belt
4. His criminal past is well known and does not jive well with BJP's middle class constituency which is attracted to Modiji thanks to his clean, no nonsense track record 
5. His sons and he have no filter.  They will speak and act in a manner which will embarrass BJP and alienate a host of voters well outside Mumbai/Maharashtra
6. Narayan Rane flaunts his criminal wealth with such abandon that even Vadra looks up to him 

Induction of Narayan Rane brings little in terms of incremental electoral gains.  Further more his induction will do little to stem the tide of rising Maratha aspirations. 

But here's the biggest danger of Narayan Rane like flirtations.  

It will alienate BJP's core voters.  Perhaps Team Shah think that by delivering on key promises they have won the voter segment i.e. the poor and lower castes.  But these segments are driven by a survival instinct and could potentially shift loyalties if promised a bigger sop by the Gandhi parivar. 

Exhibit A:  BJP was forced to announce  a string of loan waivers despite delivering bijli, saadak, paani in record time. 

In the past I have recommended the 'efficient mai baap' strategy.  And continue to support it.  (http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2011/06/understanding-indian-electorate.html) 

But not at the cost of driving away BJP's core voters. 

This segment now has an alternative to the BJP - which is the 3rd force I alluded to earlier in this piece. 

And that is the option to stay home on election day.  

Induction of Narayan Rane will encourage this segment to register a protest vote by refusing to vote.  

It happened in 2004 and it could happen in 2019. 
 

The Plan B to Counter PM Modi

The Nitish switch to NDA laid to rest any hopes India's sickular empire had of mounting a coherent political challenge to PM Modi. That did not mean they have gave up.  Even before the Nitish treachery a Plan B was being tested.  It has since been activated - Left unchallenged it will not only confront BJP politically but will forever weaken India and balkanize her into multiple, pliable states.  

Read on.

For a couple of years now amateur (like yours truly) and professional analysts have observed, with growing dismay,  a rising tide of regional, linguistic and caste chauvinism across India. 

Patidars, Marathas, Jats, Tamils, Sikhs and now Tribals - each locally dominant group has raised a banner of revolt - ostensibly to demand their fair share, denied to them by an imaginary foe. 

An Imaginary foe i.e. India, Hinduism and the Brahmin (please note - I do not belong to any Brahmin caste or subcaste).

Where needed this template has been tweaked to include a local flavor.  Old school Anti-Hindi south Indian schisms are fanned with a new twist - Hinduism was never prevalent in South India. 

Twitter, Quora, FB and other social networks are blowing up with similar arguments. 

Marathas are being encouraged to support a new religion - Shiv Dharma - or Shivaji's Dharma - A casteless religion that opposes 'Brahminism'. 

Traditional Hinduism is being painted as nothing but 'Brahminism'.  These arent new arguments or new tactics.

What is new is the carefully orchestrated nationwide campaign to simultaneously tear Hindu unity apart. 

PM Modi's enemies have rightly diagnosed the factors which led to his astounding 2014 mandate.  Primary amongst these was Hindu Unity. 

2014 was the first time Hindus voted as a single ummah - Cutting across caste, regional, linguistic lines. Not since the rise of the Maratha confederacy had Hindus supported a Hindu ruler. 

What destroyed the Marathas was their failure to keep Hindus united.  The British cleverly exploited Hindu India's innate fault lines to methodically divide and destroy local opponents till they conquered and enslaved a continent sized country. 

India's enemies have made their own calculations.  Not only is it matter of their survival, the survival of their very ideology.  No other nation offers such a fertile ground to implant alien ideologies.  The return on investment is simply too lucrative to allow a devoted patriot PM to undo 1000 years of hard work.

2019 is shaping up to be a battle of battles, a war to end all socio-political wars. 

No price is too high and India's enemies are pulling out the stops to stop Narendra Damodardas Modi.  

BJP's play-by-the-rule war machine is being challenged by an international conspiracy rooted in asymmetrical socio-political warfare. 

The groups being selected as pawns to undermine Mother India are her most prominent defenders - Sikhs, Marathas, Jats, Tamils, Patels..... all groups who have contributed to keeping her whole.  Helping her survive. 

PM Modi represents an existential challenge to forces who saw Sonia as Queen who would recolonize India.  All their tricks have failed.  Given a few more years, the Modi govt. will place India at the heart of the world's growth engine a position currently held by China. 

The consequent economic growth would wipe out poverty and with it the raison d'etre for foreign beliefs, doctrines, cultures. The consequent economic miracle would bring mercantile stakeholders who would act as a counter weight to ideological soul harvesters.

A confident India would regain its preeminent position within the community of nations. 

2019 is their last chance. 2019 is our last chance. We must prepare or perish.