It would seem that an almost relentless pounding from Sonia's evil ecosystem has finally found its mark. If not on the bulls eye plate, on the wall from which said bull's eye is hanging.
The double whammy of Modi sarkar's operation clean up - Demo and GST - has India's middle and upper middle class reeling. Prices have shot up. High end Real estate markets in most major cities have crashed. PM Modi's old enemies (and some new ones) have emerged from the wood work with the same old doomsday scenario.
[Before I go any further, let me point out that there's a real danger of the Modi Sarkar being branded as 'arrogant' and the charge sticking. An anti-middle class, 'suit boot ki sarkar'. BJP cannot afford to lose its middle class stronghold. One that has stood by it through thick and thin. More on this later]
But like those previous predictions, this latest one may also prove to be off the mark. There are two reasons for this:
1. Modi Sarkar has plenty of time for both Demo and GST to play out and settle down.
2. Narendra Damodardas Modi
Allow me to take you down memory lane. By 2006 I had become convinced that NaMo was the future. I was scrutinizing his track record with a level of brutal honesty that I had never used for any other political leader. It was a natural outcome of belonging to a generation betrayed by a string of 'Great Brown Hopes' - From Rajiv Gandhi to VP Singh and finally LK Advani.
One of CM Modi's greatest achievements in his first full term as CM (From 2002 to 2007) was delivery 24x7 uninterrupted power to Gujarat and turning Gujarat Power board from a loss making entity to a financially healthy and self sustainable body.
This was a stellar achievement in a country where even the capital city experienced major load shedding - that very Indian euphemism for extended power cuts.
In the process of implementing his vision, CM Modi had imposed stringent penalties of power thieves. A key segment in this group of power thieves were a section of farmers. No political party had ever survived by confronting the Agri lobby. Post independence Indian political history was littered with obituaries of leaders who had tried to tame this politically potent, electorally powerful group.
CM Modi had not only stopped power theft but imposed stringent penalties and filed court cases against farmers for stealing power. A group accustomed to never paying for power was being held accountable. Over 1 lakh farmers were in the dock.
In mid 2007 Arun Jaitley (AJ) was appointed state incharge for Gujarat elections to be held in early December of the same year.
News reports were gleefully predicting an electoral setback for CM Modi thanks to his tough stand on power thefts and confronting the agri lobby.
Several credible news reports claimed that AJ made a passionate plea to CM Modi to rescind his orders, withdraw cases filed against farmers. Failing which he risked losing the imminent, make or break election.
NaMo refused to make any concessions. Come what may.
Now consider the scenario in 2007. CM Modi had been painted as public enemy No. 1. Even his own party men were keeping a distance from him. A set back in 2007 would not only mean the end of his political career. His enemies would not sit back and allow him to fade into the sunset. They would come after him, with all means possible. His assassination was a real possibility.
Despite these odds NaMo stood firm and did not deviate from his path.
I was both petrified and curious. What the hell was this man thinking. Electoral cost of announcing an amnesty was minimal. The risk of not announcing one was unimaginable.
When BJP pulled off an almost 2/3rds majority I was curious to find out how the Agri section had voted. It took a few months, but around March 2008 post-election analysis threw up a pleasant surprise. The very segments on which CM Modi had imposed a 'draconian' regulation had voted for him in unprecedented numbers.
NaMo and his convictions had won.
Demo and GST are likely to witness a similar outcome. There's a very simple reason for this. His personal integrity.
Hun Khato Nathi, Khava Deto Nathi - I dont take or tolerate bribes.
His clean, unblemished track record of preventing corruption creates an impregnable shield around him. It allows him to take harsh measures because people perceive it as an honest attempt to fix India's ugly, exploitative system.
Once the shock of GST dissipates and prices stabilize, even his most vocal critics will come round to the view that he has done the right thing.
Take Real Estate for instance. Only a very tiny fraction of Indians could afford to buy a house worth more than Rs. 10 lakhs. Let that sink in. You couldnt find a hut in Mumbai's slums for that amount.
A million dollars would fetch you a spacious beach front condo in Miami. In pre Demo Mumbai Rs. 6.7 crores would fetch you what? A tiny apartment in Bandra, on noisy crowded street with access to schools with little space and exorbitant fees.
Pre Demo India was an India built for the tiny minority of upper middle class. A class that had circumvented the need to engage with the govt. apart from securing the necessary certificates and licenses. Upper middle class India had insulated itself from India.
You couldnt really blame them. A corrupt, cruel political/bureaucratic system had little to offer this class. Given the chance they had found ways around it.
Private schools, tanker supplied water, access to colleges in America/Europe were just some of the luxuries this class could afford.
And mind you, I belong to this class. I know them like the back of my hand.
Even the middle class aspires to this strata and a large number do achieve the upgrade within a decade.
The resulting wealth gap is what brought NaMo to power. As people absorb the importance and imperative nature of his moves, they will certainly come round to share his wisdom.
18 months allows for this realization to sink in. But these 18 months are crucial.
PM Modi will have to take additional steps (which I'm certain he has in the pipeline) for the been fits of a common market to sink in.
For instance, my trader friends have highlighted an important benefit of GST. With agri goods moving more expeditiously, wastage is coming down which has translated into increased supply. This should help stabilize prices of essential commodities.
But more needs to be done. The massive upgrade to India's road and power networks should be leveraged to attract private players such as FedEx and Deutche Post to build transportation hubs.
GST makes a national transportation grid a real possibility.
Further more, BJP needs to focus on addressing concerns related to its urban middle class vote. One such area is Education. A sensible policy which brings in private players would go a long way in increasing seats and upgrading existing govt schools.
There's no reason why BJP cannot offer land and other incentives for private schools to be opened by Indians. Foreign investment could be restricted to higher education.
The battle began on May 14th 2014. BJP has neither won it nor lost it. But as explained in previous posts, 220 seats is still a 'defeat' for the BJP.
The double whammy of Modi sarkar's operation clean up - Demo and GST - has India's middle and upper middle class reeling. Prices have shot up. High end Real estate markets in most major cities have crashed. PM Modi's old enemies (and some new ones) have emerged from the wood work with the same old doomsday scenario.
[Before I go any further, let me point out that there's a real danger of the Modi Sarkar being branded as 'arrogant' and the charge sticking. An anti-middle class, 'suit boot ki sarkar'. BJP cannot afford to lose its middle class stronghold. One that has stood by it through thick and thin. More on this later]
But like those previous predictions, this latest one may also prove to be off the mark. There are two reasons for this:
1. Modi Sarkar has plenty of time for both Demo and GST to play out and settle down.
2. Narendra Damodardas Modi
Allow me to take you down memory lane. By 2006 I had become convinced that NaMo was the future. I was scrutinizing his track record with a level of brutal honesty that I had never used for any other political leader. It was a natural outcome of belonging to a generation betrayed by a string of 'Great Brown Hopes' - From Rajiv Gandhi to VP Singh and finally LK Advani.
One of CM Modi's greatest achievements in his first full term as CM (From 2002 to 2007) was delivery 24x7 uninterrupted power to Gujarat and turning Gujarat Power board from a loss making entity to a financially healthy and self sustainable body.
This was a stellar achievement in a country where even the capital city experienced major load shedding - that very Indian euphemism for extended power cuts.
In the process of implementing his vision, CM Modi had imposed stringent penalties of power thieves. A key segment in this group of power thieves were a section of farmers. No political party had ever survived by confronting the Agri lobby. Post independence Indian political history was littered with obituaries of leaders who had tried to tame this politically potent, electorally powerful group.
CM Modi had not only stopped power theft but imposed stringent penalties and filed court cases against farmers for stealing power. A group accustomed to never paying for power was being held accountable. Over 1 lakh farmers were in the dock.
In mid 2007 Arun Jaitley (AJ) was appointed state incharge for Gujarat elections to be held in early December of the same year.
News reports were gleefully predicting an electoral setback for CM Modi thanks to his tough stand on power thefts and confronting the agri lobby.
Several credible news reports claimed that AJ made a passionate plea to CM Modi to rescind his orders, withdraw cases filed against farmers. Failing which he risked losing the imminent, make or break election.
NaMo refused to make any concessions. Come what may.
Now consider the scenario in 2007. CM Modi had been painted as public enemy No. 1. Even his own party men were keeping a distance from him. A set back in 2007 would not only mean the end of his political career. His enemies would not sit back and allow him to fade into the sunset. They would come after him, with all means possible. His assassination was a real possibility.
Despite these odds NaMo stood firm and did not deviate from his path.
I was both petrified and curious. What the hell was this man thinking. Electoral cost of announcing an amnesty was minimal. The risk of not announcing one was unimaginable.
When BJP pulled off an almost 2/3rds majority I was curious to find out how the Agri section had voted. It took a few months, but around March 2008 post-election analysis threw up a pleasant surprise. The very segments on which CM Modi had imposed a 'draconian' regulation had voted for him in unprecedented numbers.
NaMo and his convictions had won.
Demo and GST are likely to witness a similar outcome. There's a very simple reason for this. His personal integrity.
Hun Khato Nathi, Khava Deto Nathi - I dont take or tolerate bribes.
His clean, unblemished track record of preventing corruption creates an impregnable shield around him. It allows him to take harsh measures because people perceive it as an honest attempt to fix India's ugly, exploitative system.
Once the shock of GST dissipates and prices stabilize, even his most vocal critics will come round to the view that he has done the right thing.
Take Real Estate for instance. Only a very tiny fraction of Indians could afford to buy a house worth more than Rs. 10 lakhs. Let that sink in. You couldnt find a hut in Mumbai's slums for that amount.
A million dollars would fetch you a spacious beach front condo in Miami. In pre Demo Mumbai Rs. 6.7 crores would fetch you what? A tiny apartment in Bandra, on noisy crowded street with access to schools with little space and exorbitant fees.
Pre Demo India was an India built for the tiny minority of upper middle class. A class that had circumvented the need to engage with the govt. apart from securing the necessary certificates and licenses. Upper middle class India had insulated itself from India.
You couldnt really blame them. A corrupt, cruel political/bureaucratic system had little to offer this class. Given the chance they had found ways around it.
Private schools, tanker supplied water, access to colleges in America/Europe were just some of the luxuries this class could afford.
And mind you, I belong to this class. I know them like the back of my hand.
Even the middle class aspires to this strata and a large number do achieve the upgrade within a decade.
The resulting wealth gap is what brought NaMo to power. As people absorb the importance and imperative nature of his moves, they will certainly come round to share his wisdom.
18 months allows for this realization to sink in. But these 18 months are crucial.
PM Modi will have to take additional steps (which I'm certain he has in the pipeline) for the been fits of a common market to sink in.
For instance, my trader friends have highlighted an important benefit of GST. With agri goods moving more expeditiously, wastage is coming down which has translated into increased supply. This should help stabilize prices of essential commodities.
But more needs to be done. The massive upgrade to India's road and power networks should be leveraged to attract private players such as FedEx and Deutche Post to build transportation hubs.
GST makes a national transportation grid a real possibility.
Further more, BJP needs to focus on addressing concerns related to its urban middle class vote. One such area is Education. A sensible policy which brings in private players would go a long way in increasing seats and upgrading existing govt schools.
There's no reason why BJP cannot offer land and other incentives for private schools to be opened by Indians. Foreign investment could be restricted to higher education.
The battle began on May 14th 2014. BJP has neither won it nor lost it. But as explained in previous posts, 220 seats is still a 'defeat' for the BJP.
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