Delhi Elections have been a revelation, not in terms what each contender has done, but rather in terms of what each hasnt done.
Natwarlal has exhibited the one quality he has lacked as a fledgling politician i.e. to learn from his mistakes and make a course correction.
For almost a decade of his existence as a political contender/public figure, Natwarlal has railed against every political leader. From Sheila Dikshit to Sonia Parivar to NaMo.
His most virulent hatred has been reserved for India's beloved PM. And it has backfired. Post 2019, has however, seen a different Natwarlal. One who has shown great discipline in avoiding any mention of the PM. Infact, going out of his way to selectively support BJP's agenda by simply being silent.
Natwarlal has also borrowed a leaf from BJP's book. His Delhi governance model has followed this strategy to near perfection
https://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2011/06/understanding-indian-electorate.html
BJP has done the same with great success - housing, Jan Dhan, Mudra, etc. But Natwarlal doing it in Delhi gives it the kind of visibility that is worth its weight in gold. And it is this strategy coupled with his new found discipline which could propel him to the national stage as a contender.
Many hurdles remain and his very rise could become the milestone around his political neck. But a path, albeit uncharted, is now faintly visible.
1. Congress has essentially outsourced the job of stopping BJP to AAP. If in the run up to 2024, Congress and others see a ray of hope in projecting Natwarlal as PM candidate, they may make the ultimate 'sacrifice' and support Kejriwal as the corruption-free, Muslim friendly face of the Opposition.
2. UP, MP, Rajasthan elections will be held in the run up to 2024 LS elections, BJP victories in these states are likely to fuel deep fear and anxiety - on a scale, big enough for Natwarlal to project himself as the Messiah
3. Natwarlal has stumbled upon the formula to stop BJP - stop supporting anti-India rhetoric, let media allies do the talking, appease Muslims by using proxies to support their agenda and deliver on corruption-free mai baap better than BJP
4. I initially felt Maya/Mamta/Akhilesh and others would not allow Natwarlal to emerge. But much as NaMo rose by leading a 'Presidential' campaign which side stepped the need for coalition politics, Kejriwal could emerge as a contender by going directly to the people.
5. Threshold for Kejriwal is much, much lower. 50 seats may be enough for Kejriwal to do a Deve Gowda.
How does BJP counter these moves:
1. Double down on Corruption-free, Mai Baap
2. Go full throttle on anti-corruption, force Kejriwal to defend his potential supporters - Pawar, Sonia, etc.
3. Revive the economy, by all means possible. SEZs, Medical Tourism, massive infrastructure spending, etc.
4. Increase MP - local funds from Rs. 2 Cr to Rs. 20 Cr. - so changes can be implemented at local levels to connect Central schemes directly with BJP
I'll update this blog with more ideas.
But its Game on. BJP better not fall asleep at the wheel.
4.
Natwarlal has exhibited the one quality he has lacked as a fledgling politician i.e. to learn from his mistakes and make a course correction.
For almost a decade of his existence as a political contender/public figure, Natwarlal has railed against every political leader. From Sheila Dikshit to Sonia Parivar to NaMo.
His most virulent hatred has been reserved for India's beloved PM. And it has backfired. Post 2019, has however, seen a different Natwarlal. One who has shown great discipline in avoiding any mention of the PM. Infact, going out of his way to selectively support BJP's agenda by simply being silent.
Natwarlal has also borrowed a leaf from BJP's book. His Delhi governance model has followed this strategy to near perfection
https://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2011/06/understanding-indian-electorate.html
BJP has done the same with great success - housing, Jan Dhan, Mudra, etc. But Natwarlal doing it in Delhi gives it the kind of visibility that is worth its weight in gold. And it is this strategy coupled with his new found discipline which could propel him to the national stage as a contender.
Many hurdles remain and his very rise could become the milestone around his political neck. But a path, albeit uncharted, is now faintly visible.
1. Congress has essentially outsourced the job of stopping BJP to AAP. If in the run up to 2024, Congress and others see a ray of hope in projecting Natwarlal as PM candidate, they may make the ultimate 'sacrifice' and support Kejriwal as the corruption-free, Muslim friendly face of the Opposition.
2. UP, MP, Rajasthan elections will be held in the run up to 2024 LS elections, BJP victories in these states are likely to fuel deep fear and anxiety - on a scale, big enough for Natwarlal to project himself as the Messiah
3. Natwarlal has stumbled upon the formula to stop BJP - stop supporting anti-India rhetoric, let media allies do the talking, appease Muslims by using proxies to support their agenda and deliver on corruption-free mai baap better than BJP
4. I initially felt Maya/Mamta/Akhilesh and others would not allow Natwarlal to emerge. But much as NaMo rose by leading a 'Presidential' campaign which side stepped the need for coalition politics, Kejriwal could emerge as a contender by going directly to the people.
5. Threshold for Kejriwal is much, much lower. 50 seats may be enough for Kejriwal to do a Deve Gowda.
How does BJP counter these moves:
1. Double down on Corruption-free, Mai Baap
2. Go full throttle on anti-corruption, force Kejriwal to defend his potential supporters - Pawar, Sonia, etc.
3. Revive the economy, by all means possible. SEZs, Medical Tourism, massive infrastructure spending, etc.
4. Increase MP - local funds from Rs. 2 Cr to Rs. 20 Cr. - so changes can be implemented at local levels to connect Central schemes directly with BJP
I'll update this blog with more ideas.
But its Game on. BJP better not fall asleep at the wheel.
4.
