Saturday, December 26, 2015

Bullet Train and the need for Retail Politics-of-Development

A fundamental human trait across cultures is to resent the rise and prosperity of those we consider to be our equals.  Indians seem to be particularly susceptible to this failing.  This is to be expected given the many fissures that exist within Indian society - caste, language, class, region, etc.

It is no wonder that India's political class has fine tuned the art of exploiting these fissures and ensure their continued hold over power regardless of their record in governance.

As arguments against the recently announced Bullet train between Ahmedabad and Mumbai have swirled across social media one is left with a sense of deja vu.  Leftist politicians have jumped on the proposed project as sharks on red meat.  Sadly, their empty rhetoric has the potential to register across India's impoverished voting classes.

Mumbai has become unlivable.  In almost any city around the world a $1MM apartment would come with all the necessary amenities. Square footage may be high or low, but features such as 24x7 power, clean roads, clean 24x7 water supply, parking spaces, parks and recreational facilities within walking distances, perhaps even a water front location, would be par for the course.

Nothing of the sort is available to any Indian citizen in any Indian city at that price point.  The crux of this situation is that if the rich cannot take such amenities for granted, what chances do less fortunate Indians (which is the vast majority) have of securing that elusive 'Indian Dream'.

Given this reality, any Govt. project perceived as being 'Elitist' brings with it the potential to irreversibly damage said govt's standing with the long disenchanted voters.

Laloo (aka Kejriwal 1.0) once exploited ABV's national highways by painting it an elitist project "as the poor dont own cars".

Kejriwal 2.0 and his sickular brethren across India are likely to exploit India's first Bullet train as just another project conceived and executed by an 'elitist' PM for his rich friends.

Despite his noble intentions, PM Modi is not merely walking into this trap he's cruising in, at light speed on the Millennium Falcon.

But the Bullet Train epitomizes a larger flaw in NDA's Politics-of-Development.

To be absolutely clear, his development agenda is spot on.  This is precisely how a nation's tattered and hemorrhaged economy should reconstructed.  From the ground up.

Please refer to the Appendix section on how the Bullet Train will bring exponential growth to the region and reduce the pressure on Mumbai.

As I have argued in previous posts this approach reposes faith in the hope that benefits accrued from this approach will 'trickle down' to India's poor i.e. the voters.

Even if this approach works and these temples to capitalism should drive much needed employment creation, a sizable section of India's poor in other states will be primed for exploitation by Sickulars with a tried and tested slogan "Bullet train for the rich and peanuts for us".

Moreover, if more pressing problems such as inflation and farmer suicides remain unresolved, this class warfare could assume serious heft in the run up to 2019.

There's no harm in building an economy from the ground up, but the PM must run a parallel effort to address the retail issues affecting Indians.  Issues they encounter on a daily basis - Inflation, crime, educational and job opportunities, etc.

Granted, these are not issues a PM can solve.  But a polity raised on Political dynasties who have turned Indian democracy into an periodically exchangeable aristocracy, this reason wont cut much ice.

In the mind of the average Indian, "We voted a PM with a massive majority, why can he do for us what has been done for the select few".

It is this mindset which has allowed the Laloos of the world to come back from political oblivion.  It is this mindset that PM Modi should focus on or else we may be staring at Priyanka-as-Rani-Laxmibai come 2019.



Appendix:


Before we examine the political fall out of this project we need to understand why a Bullet train is the need of the hour and not a luxury as opponents of PM Modi are painting it.

Housing:

Mumbai already ranks the the most densely populated and one of the most polluted cities in the world.  A collection of 7 island has simply run out of space to expand.  Skyscrapers can easy this pressure but it cannot alleviate the immense load the constant influx of new migrants puts on Mumbai's already precarious infrastructure.

One way to ease this pressure is the make more space available.  But space sans proper, modern amenities is a non-starter, as people and businesses would hate to move into locations which lack basic aforementioned amenities.

The bullet train now opens up Ahmedabad and a number of stops between Ahmedabad and Mumbai as possible avenues for both residential and commercial real estate.  

This additional supply of space will likely reduce prices in Mumbai but most importantly affordable housing could be within reach of India's growing middle class.

A sub-two hour commute coupled with modern amenities would allow Mumbaikars to consider setting up residence in Gujarat.  It would considerably ease the pressure on Mumbai.

Expanded across India, Bullet trains could ease pressure by converting cities within a 2 hour radius of major metros into satellite towns.

Safety:

With a modern rail line accidents should be a fraction of fatalities witnessed on highways.  For instance, Indian highways in particular are notorious for allowing live stock (among other culprits) to stray onto the highway increasing the risk of fatal accidents.

A high speed rail line would reduce the risk of accidents for the same number of people transported.

Speed/Capacity:

With an average speed of 300 Km/Hour and most trips accomplished within 2 hours, the number o f people transported should be considerable more than a super highway between the 2 cities.

Some have argued that a super highway could achieve the same objectives at a fraction of the cost.

But highways and bullet trains need not be mutually exclusive.  Most importantly Highways are bound to add to the growing pollution destroying India's air quality.  

Once constructed, Railway infrastructure requires a fraction of the cost to maintain as against a world class super highway.

Pollution:

As long renewable energy sources are used to power (even partly) the bullet train, the carbon footprint of this mode of transportation should be far superior to any land (or, air, water) based  alternative.

Proof of Concept:

The Bullet train would also serve as a 'Proof of Concept' for similar lines to link larger cities - Mumbai-Bengaluru, Delhi-Lucknow, etc.

Job Creation:

Bullet trains would generate direct employment, but the potential to create indirect employment opportunities in real estate, tourism, etc. would dwarf almost any other single initiative pursued by the current administration.