NaMo is a politician like no other. The closest leader resembling his abilities is Lee Kwan Yew of Singapore.
As a politician NaMo has had only a few missteps. And these too were missteps cause the media was lined up against him.
Given the odds, given the ‘degree of difficulty’ he has had to deal with, he can only be compared to the Mahatma in terms of political acumen.
Add to this political acumen and unparalleled administrative genius and you have a leader not seen in India since perhaps Chatrapati Shivaji Maharaj.
Despite these strengths there’s one potential trap that can derail his march to the throne of Delhi.
And that is this: If NaMo comes across as just another politician he risks losing everything.
The best example of this trap would be NaMo’s response to 26/11. When he flew into Mumbai, media went into a frenzy declaring him a power hungry, petty politician, out to exploit a tragedy.
Lost in this anti-NaMo venting was the fact that it was a vote bank hungry CONgress that was responsible for the sorry state of India’s security apparatus.
Speaking to fence sitting Hindus, I got the impression that incidents like these could easily be turned against NaMo.
Though this misstep was a minor incident in the larger context, running as a conventional politician has much greater implications.
A great number of his ardent supporters are making the same mistake. Asking NaMo to alter his game so as to become more acceptable to ‘Coalition partners’. The risk such a strategy entails is immeasurable. Moreover, it is a non-starter.
So what would a ‘conventional’ NaMo do:
1. He would render a heartfelt apology on Godhra – though it was not his fault to begin with
2. He would host iftar parties and go on a multi-religious pilgrimage to buttress his ‘secular’ credentials
3. Meet with coalition partners to address their concerns vis-à-vis his Hindutva antecedents
4. In short compromise every belief, ideal he has held dear
The conventional political wisdom dictates that THIS (or its subset) is the ONLY way to the throne of Delhi.
Not only will such a strategy bomb, it will backfire. It will deposit NaMo in no man’s land. He will end up losing his support base without acquiring any pseudosecular votes. So what should be the ‘unconventional’ strategy.
Let us first document the broad parameters:
1. Minorities will never vote for NaMo. Even if he visits every muhallah, even if Nitish, Naveen and Mullayam endorse his candidacy an anti-NaMo minority consolidation is a given
2. As the 10th anniversary of Godhra demonstrated, media frenzy is also a given
a. Media will never support NaMo
3. The ‘Politics of Patronage’ will fight back. This network is entrenched, resourceful, inventive, evil and more powerful than anything NaMo has ever encountered
4. Regional identities will continue to exert themselves in dictating political outcomes: Odiya voting for Naveen, Maharastrians for NCP, Tamils for DMK/Amma, etc.
5. As evidenced by multiple state elections, Indians are increasingly leaning towards handing a complete mandate to any party capable of winning it all – CON in LS09, JDU – Bihar10, SP – UP12.
6. 2014 is a mere 2 years away – not enough space for Indians to tire with their ineffective local leaders but enough time to frame a new narrative around a strong, clean, uncompromising, proven leader.
The Strategy:
1. Firstly, lower expectations around Gujarat elections
a. Currently anything below 150 is a defeat. Bring that mark down to 110 – 115.
b. ‘Winning’ big in Gujarat i.e. exceeding expectations is the Key. The Necessary (not sufficient) condition to win Delhi
2. Go directly to the people – Convert NaMo into a symbol of Indian Asmita. This can be done. Indian brand equity has taken a huge hit in the past 3 years. Indians will be ready for this message.
3. Highlight NaMo’s humble beginnings, clean image, lack of family ties, that his mother still resides in a lower middle class tenement
a. He could celebrate ‘Mother’s day’ with his mother or launch his campaign with his mother’s blessings
4. Neutralize enemies within BJP
a. As election after election is proving, Indians perceive BJP as CONgress’ B team
b. Only clean leaders like Parrikar/Khanduri have been able to counter this image
c. If NaMo forms a ‘League of Extraordinary, incorruptible Men/women’ he can be presented as the man who will rid India of its corruption and set it on the path to Superpower status
5. Select the right candidates
a. Election after election is proving that Gujaratis hate bad candidates – Rajkot 2009, Mansa 2012
b. Each candidate (as far as possible) must be a perfect projection of NaMo’s image
i. Incorruptible
ii. Hardworking
iii. Honest
iv. Nationalist
c. As UP has proven, people will vote for a rival caste candidate if he/she is perceived as deserving individual
6. Identify the 250-300 seats where word of the ‘Modi Miracle’ has reached
7. Invest heavily in the army of apostles
8. Identify the inflection point – the tipping point at which the Indian people finally give up and call for NaMo to take over. Orchestrate a media event to declare the NaMo candidacy around this point.
1. Project and present NaMo as a one-man-army against corruption
2. India is fast approaching a tipping point where attacks on NaMo will not only lose their potency but would start helping NaMo – If and only if he is presented as an honest man targeted for taking on the system – A political Amitabh Bachachan from Zanjeer.
3. Media’s non-Gandhi blue-eyed boys like Nitish, Naveen and Akhilesh will soon start losing their sheen. Non-delivery of essentials despite having unbridled power can only be sustained for so long
a. All 3 have been given an unprecedented majority. There are no excuses left
b. NaMo must exploit this inevitable anti-incumbency once he wins his 3rd term
c. Positiion this victory as a victory of the politics of performance and contrast it against the limited performance of Nitish/Naveen/Akhilesh
d. Identify LS seats within each of these states that can be won by NaMo on his own
4. NaMo can and should turn every attack on him into a ‘NaMo Vs. Corruption’ war.
a. But he must not instigate this war on his own. He must use his apostles to help add the much needed neutrality (and credibility) to this message
5. A big force multiplier would be Baba Ramdev and perhaps even Anna. Though Anna is now ensconced in the hands of anti-NaMo forces
a. These apostles would add the much needed credibility and reach to NaMo’s candidature across North and West India
6. Once more indicators start trending in NaMo’s favor (Example: Next India today State of the Nation survey) fence sitting coalition partners will begin building bridges with NaMo
7. Use apostles to present the case for Minorities: NaMo hasn’t allowed any riots since 2002. Same cannot be said of Ghelot in Rajasthan or the left in West Bengal
Next: How will they counter NaMo?
