The Iceberg Theory
As we await results of the 2012 Gujarat polls, I can’t help
but gloat. For several years now, yours
truly has postulated these seemingly naïve and preposterous theories vis-à-vis
NaMo’s fortunes in Delhi. Having been
ridiculed, even by some well-meaning Internet Hindus, I can’t help but gloat at
how these theories are playing out almost exactly as I had predicted. (Once twitter allows for wider historical
search, I’ll look up all my old tweets and publish them as proof)
One such theory is the theory of the ‘Iceberg’:
“NaMo’s support base resembled an Iceberg. A vast section lay hidden beneath the surface
and given the appropriate circumstances, it would begin revealing itself”.
Post 2007 as I surveyed my super liberal friends, I sensed a
grudging respect for NaMo. The counter
questions they posed to my hagiographical arguments in favor of NaMo were the typical
ELM talking points. “But what about 2002” and “what about democratic
institutions”. As I silenced them with
facts and figures, the expressions on their faces and the tone in their voices changed. It was no longer as sharp and strident. In fact, there was a frustration writ large
on their faces. A sentiment I could sense
but could not identify. It was almost,
like they wanted to support NaMo, but something prevented them from doing it
openly.
Was it fear of social ostracism? Did this fear of being
branded a ‘communalist’ or a ‘Sanghi’ preclude them from openly expressing
their support?
That was the first indication that a vast reservoir of support
for NaMo did exist. A further analysis
of public figures revealed another
startling insight. Very few were willing
to go on record to criticize NaMo. The usual
Pinkos were clearly anti-NaMo, but they were greatly outnumbered by the silent fence
sitters.
But were these fence sitters, straddling those fences due to
fear of being caught up in the political crossfire or were they closet
supporters of NaMo, who would, given the right circumstances, jump the fence and
publicly advocate the NaMo-for-PM line.
May be I was dreaming but this theory jived with another theory I had
first postulated back in 2004 when CONgress came back to power:
Sonia’s CONgress (with its decade long pent up greed) would
ruin India once and for all.
I had no idea how they would accomplish this feat. But
having followed CONgress closely since 1984, I had no doubt; their talent at
screwing India would, sooner rather than later, manifest itself.
NaMo’s victory in 2007 and UPA-I’s non-performance convinced
me that this this ‘Iceberg’ theory had legs.
All we needed was a catalyst or
several successive catalysts.
Results of Gujarat 2012 are that catalyst, that inflection
point. As everyone from Madhu Kishwar,
Tavleen Singh, Kiran Muzumdar and others, openly support NaMo, this ‘Iceberg’
theory is coming true. And it will now
feed on itself. The Network Effect will
start kicking in. As the Oxbridge crowd
jumps on the NaMo bandwagon, more and more Indians will start openly supporting
NaMo. Each will use a reason to justify
their support (from the economy to corruption to NaMo’s track record to the
TINA factor) but support they will.
This exodus will feed another suggestion I made a couple of
years back. That NaMo must start
building an army of apostles. Public
figures in every state/city willing to go to the people and explain the Modi
Miracle.
As these public figures start supporting NaMo openly, MSM
will launch a virulent counter offensive and target them. Given the changed circumstances (with NaMo
within reach of Delhi), these attacks will not only fail to intimidate this
growing band of supporters but also turn these public figures into a de facto
Army of NaMo apostles.
NaMo has now ceased to be a political leader; he is now a
movement, an idea.
“There is no force more powerful than an
idea whose time has come.” - Victor Hugo
