How PM Modi has played Pakistan to Perfection

In the eyes of many a right wing supporter PM Modi had committed the ultimate sin by inviting Nawaz Sharif to his swearing-in ceremony.  I was one of those right wingers.  

For someone who had expressed a desire to 'seal the border' with Pakistan (http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2013/01/seal-border-zero-contact-with-pakistan.html) Sharif being invited to foot on Indian soil was a betrayal.  And for that invitation to come from a PM we had all supported with such passion and devotion was particularly painful.  

But one thought kept gnawing at me "This was NaMo - the second coming of Chatrapati Shivaji Maharaj".  

And suddenly it made all the sense.  Upon further analysis I wrote the following post:  "The PM's Dilemma"
http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2014/07/the-pms-dilemma.html (see : "Friendship with Pakistan and China")

As India's response has unfolded since the attack at Uri, PM's strategy has finally come to light.  




(earlier post:  The Modi Doctrine)
http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2016/07/the-modi-doctrine.html


The invitation to Nawaz, attending his grand-daughter's wedding, making peace with Bangladesh on border issue, etc. they were all part of a larger strategy, knowing fully well that Jihadi Pakis would never change their colors. 

That PM did all this despite stinging rebuke from friend and foe alike is another feather in his cap.  

PM needed to demonstrate to liberal global leaders from Obama to Merkel that he had exhausted every avenue to initiate and sustain peace in the sub-continent.  

His early personal interventions have left no room for any country to complain that Modi's India has fallen short of taking a genuine shot at bringing peace to the sub-continent.  

As 4 out of the 7 SAARC countries decide to boycott the upcoming summit, we can only marvel at how well PM's strategy has worked.  
His tireless efforts on the foreign relations front have borne fruit with only a handful of countries willing to remain neutral, much less speak on behalf of Pakistan.  

If implemented expeditiously (and there's no reason to think it  wont) water management infrastructure on Indus rivers has the potential to permanently hold Pakis by the balls.  

Pakistan doesnt manufacture much, with agriculture being a key export and foreign exchange generator (the other being begging/charity).  

All India has to do is delay the release of water by a few weeks and Pakis will be on their knees.  Every future Uri, Pathankhot could attract severe reactions from India.  

Moreover, few future govts. (BJP or sickular) will be willing to weather the wrath of Indian voters by not leveraging this asset. 

In one stroke, PM Modi has brought Pakis to their knees.  Youtube Paki media clips on this issue and see the frothing at their collective mouths to view the impact this strategy is having on Pakis.

Pakis could react in one or several ways:

1.  Appeal to International community
- No one wants to support the protectors of Osama Bin Laden.  Pakistan will find very little traction even in Europe

2. Get China to build structures on rivers originating in China
- This is a non-starter.  When India doesnt currently exploit even the 20% allocated to it, what impact will this have on India.  Besides Pakistan wants the water to flow through on be stopped.  
Secondly, only small parts of these rivers originate in China.  These rivers gather most of their strength from the melting snow on Indian territory

3. Bomb the water management structures
- Any such attack will give India an opening to bomb all kinds of assets in Pakistan (from power plants on CPEC to dams and canals)

The Indus Water strategy allows India to control Pakistan by playing within the constraints described here (http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2016/07/the-modi-doctrine.html)  with minimal loss of life or threat of blow back. 


Pakistan is screwed......and I'm loving this.

Arnab Goswami and the reinvention of Indian Right Wing

Arnab Goswami may be on to something.....read on

For a news junkie such as yours truly, Arnab represents a brand of news anchoring that is unprecedented within any media landscape, but most certainly within India's incestuous media club.  

While Indian print media has a few leading lights who present the right of center pov, electronic media has remained immune to conservative arguments.

Step in Arnab Goswami.  

Perhaps Arnab's right wing leanings are part of a carefully crafted strategy to fill a vacuum that was visible to even the most casual media watchers. 

Perhaps he is truly a patriot whose heart aches for the dismal state of India's defense preparedness.  

Regardless of his motivations, Arnab may have stumbled on to something that could alter the way India's fledgeling right wing discourse is shaped in the years to come. 

As I have mentioned in earlier blog posts, the information revolution unleashed in the early 90s has driven a rethink across opinion makers across the free world.  If you have access to information, chances are, your worldview is likely to tend toward a 'global citizen' mentality, with tolerance as the center piece.  What was once a liberal affectation is now a core belief even amongst the more conservative leaning citizens.  

This dynamic plays out most commonly with younger folks (and Indians are amongst the youngest demographic).  But even older groups have shown a remarkable change of heart, particularly on social issues. 

These evolving social transformations are most evident in the West.  Given the efficient nature of western institutions this is to be expected.  From electing the first Black Head of State in any western nation to approval for gay marriage, America has delivered social changes unthinkable as recently as George W's election campaign in 1999.

India cannot remain insulated from these global changes.  This wave of tolerance is nothing new to Hinduism.  Access to information has allowed people to access historical facts and form or update long held opinions.

On a personal note,  my visceral hatred for Hindu casteism stems from gaining access to historical evidence of the degrading treatment meted out to Hinduism only truly Hindu King - Chatrapati Shivaji Maharaj (Google the history behind his coronation)

Social changes engendered by the information revolution have created a (electorally significant) new segment of voters that is uncomfortable with social conservatism.  But at the same time this segment tends to take an ultra conservative view on terror and positions that are perceived as being 'soft on terror'.  

In short, there's now a liberal wing of the conservative movement which hates Pakistan and terror as much as (say) a Shiv Sainik.

This segment is comfortable with western attire, music, culinary preferences but clings to (even celebrates) its Indianess. 

This segment supports PM Modi but wont go to bat for a Togadia. 

Arnab's ratings triumph suggests this segment is growing and the younger lot in particular are only swelling its ranks.  

BJP needs to find a way to connect with this segment.  For 2019 and beyond.

How and Why UPA could 'Win' in 2019

PM Modi's Pre-Uri (According to latest Pew survey) approval rating is at an unprecedented 81% (down from 87%) at the half way mark.

The honeymoon seems to be going strong.  Other surveys have indicated a landslide 300+ seats for NDA if elections are held today.

But we must guard against complacency which seems to have crept in, if BJP's recent actions (or 'inactions') are any indication.

India's sickular/pseudo liberal evil empire has been hard at work.  From the minute 2014 exit polls were announced, UPA and their carefully cultivated force multipliers went to work to probe PM Modi's defenses.  They failed miserably for the first few months.  But they have learned from these failures, tweaked their strategies and regrouped for a final assault.

They have come the following conclusion: 
A second landslide for PM Modi would mean the beginning of the  end of sickular politics practiced since before 1947. 

The strategy is as follows:

1. Divide Hindus 
2. Unite sickular forces under a single united front - UPA or UPA+

Objective:  A defeat for the PM does not have to translate into an outright victory for UPA.  In 2004, BJP had 3 more seats than Congress, but NDA lost big and that is precisely what Sonia is aiming for in 2019.  Bring BJP' tally under 200 so that even if NDA3 comes to power it shackles PM Modi and leads to rampant corruption (for starters) and dilutes PM's anti-Sonia, anti-corruption crusade.

The first part of the strategy seems to be working spectacularly (with a little help from BJP and the larger Sangh parivar)

It was first tested with Jats in Haryana.  The level and intensity of caste riots surprised many an observer (me included).  Clearly the 'agitation' was orchestrated and its success seems to have unleashed three additional pressure points.

Dalits, Patels and now Marathas.

Notice how each of these castes have huge numbers in their respective states and have tasted power.  Galvanizing them behind a caste based non-BJP formation would be relatively easy.

Mayawati - UP
Patels - Congress/Hardik
Marathas - Pawar/Congress

The biggest loser of this caste based consolidation would be PM Modi and his BJP.

The second part of the strategy (uniting sickular opposition) is a bit trickier.

BJP seems to be complacently enjoying the goings on within opposition ranks - whether is Nitish Vs. Laloo in Bihar or Cong Vs. Kejriwal in Delhi.

The thinking seems to be "these jokers can never unite, we have nothing to worry about"

Moreover, with regional satraps like Mamta and Amma likely to emerge as the single largest regional entities in the next Parliament, the number of PMship claimants would grow exponentially.

Currently, there are 6 - Mamta, Amma, Kejriwal, Nitish, Netaji, Rahul...with Pawar lurking (as always) in the background

Additionally, several key components are fiercely divided at the local level, fighting over the same regional turf - DMK vs. Amma, Mamta Vs. Cong, Maya Vs. Mulayam, etc.
 
 But they dont need to unite into one happy family.  

They dont need to.  Even a limited coalition, restricted to key states of Bihar, UP, Maharashtra, Delhi would hurt BJP in a big way.  The Ammas, Mamtas, etc. could be added post elections.

Even if UPA3 doesnt come to fruition, said alliance could siphon of 70-80 seats from BJP's current tally, bringing it exactly where sickular want it - at the 200 seat mark.

And therein lies the danger.  

BJP seems to be asleep at the wheel.  

Another key factor is that PM Modi seems to be using the same template he used to win in 2014.  Though key elements of that template will remain relevant and crucial in 2019, caste and coalitions may end up playing a bigger role. 

If Bihar could usher in jungle raj 2.0 with this strategy, UP could be next.  A SJP+Cong alliance could take away 2-30 seats from the BJP for instance.

BJP must address these caste divisions right now before its too late.  
 Caste cannot be confronted in 2018.  It must be addressed right away.

A two pronged strategy must be adopted to address demands for caste based reservations:
 
1. Constitute a committee to look into these demands at the national level and push the SC to decide on the constitutionality of these demands.  This will at the very least, buy NDA time

2. Turn the Hindu Vs. Hindu fight on caste reservations into a Hindu Vs. Minorities fight (Clearly Owasi would jump at this opportunity).  By highlighting religion based reservations as a threat to all reservations, BJP can put sickulars on the back foot and create a temporary stalemate.  Which should hold till after 2019. 

We can reassess this problem then.  Hopefully, initiatives such as 'Make in India' will begin impacting local economies, raising demands for labor, thus eating into cries for reservations.

 

People Vs. St. Teresa and the White Man's Burden

Reactions to the Canonization of Mother Teresa have fallen in two categories - She was a proselytizing demon Vs. she was a flawless saint who saved a god forsaken people.

There's a 3rd facet to this issue - "The White Man's burden"

Several years ago a Chinese friend had pointed out this phenomenon that transcends Western foreign policy and infuses itself in various aspects of Western narrative even influencing Hollywood's portrayal of non-Western peoples.  Particularly those that are racially considered non-Christian, non-White. 

Mohd. Ali on the Church - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rtxfTEyJZg4

Consider how this narrative played a central role in older comic heros - Tarzan, Phantom...to name two who were white men who knew more about the African jungles than the natives and who did not inter racially mate with the locals but from generation to generation (The ghost who walks) took only white spouses.

This is not to suggest that native cultures did not have their own evils or flaws.  Sati (however infrequent it may have been) was an undeniable fact.  But so was witch-hunting.  The argument is that non-Christians did not assume the smug onus to think they needed to save other cultures from these flaws. 


Once a country was converted to Christianity, even if poverty, crime and social issues persist, this narrative was toned down.  (Compare the portrayal, for instance, of India's 'Rape Culture' with the widespread and decades long problem of rape on American College campuses or problem with human trafficking across Latin and North America.)

Saint Teresa is an almost perfect epitome of this narrative.  A white, christian woman sacrificing her all to live with and serve a wretched, god forsaken people who have no willingness or ability to serve their own.

Saint Teresa makes white folks feel good about themselves.  Though Teresa is a global brand, the same dynamic is implemented at local levels through Churches and the many social services offered.

A little known fact is that even in America, the Church is the second largest (after the government) provider of Educational and Health services.

This has allowed the Church to serve as a force multiplier for western nations.

This perfect union, persisted till the early 2000s.  But two events  severely dented its influence within Western Societies (and has continued to have a spillover effect on a global scale).  This has led to a crisis from which Western Christianity may not recover and may survive (in the West) as an ornamental cultural paradigm devoid of the influence it has exerted for the past 2000 years.

The first event was the dawn of the information age.
The second was the widespread, global child rape scandal across the Catholic church and the shameful cover up executed by the Pope (Ratzinger) himself.

The information age has brought younger generations of Christians face-to-face with the blood soaked history of the Church.  As Islamofacism grows by each passing day, Christians are coming to terms with their own similar and equally genocidal history.

This realization has led to the phenomenon of 'White Guilt' which flies in the face of the aforementioned (and centuries long) phenomenon of "White Man's Burden".

Consider the following gut-wrenching story of how the Jesuit order at Georgetown University owned and traded slaves

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/17/us/georgetown-university-search-for-slave-descendants.html?_r=0

Stories such as these have seen the light of day, thanks to the information age.  As younger White Christians are confronted by their sordid religious, cultural history their faith has been irreversibly shaken. 


The centuries long global genocide of native people in the Americas, Australia and the Asia, led and sponsored by the Church has received renewed scrutiny in the aftermath of the child rape scandal.

As victims came forward to recount these life-decimating events and the sinister role played by the highest authorities in the Church, Western smugness at 'helping' non-whites by saving them from their own cultural deficiencies took a beating.

On race, gender roles, slavery, child abuse Western Christianity has had a abysmal record that is worst than that of any of the native cultures violently uprooted and replaced by the Church.  

ISIS is a twin brother to the Church circa 1500 A.D.

This is not to suggest that the West has been all evil.  But it can be convincingly argued that the rise of rational thought (as against religion) that jettisoned religion to a peripheral role has played a pivotal and central role in the meteoric rise of Western societies over the past 4 centuries.

Note:  Even as late as the 1800s, India and China accounted for 40-45% of global trade.  Western domination is relatively recent.

Also, if Christianity was the reason behind Western success, how do you explain the abject poverty across south America and countries such as Philippines which have been Christian for several centuries.

Though Canonization of Mother Teresa may serve as a much needed boost to the Church in countries like India, Western Christianity has been in a terminal decline.  And will continue this trajectory.  

The way to counter Saint Teresa is not to demean her but to highlight the likes of Baba Amte and Amma and to adopt Western (not Christian) values such as separation of Church and state.

We dont want to emulate the Church when its own approach has been tried, tested and rejected by its original followers.  

The rapid spread of Eastern philosophies such as Yoga and Veganism, are evidence that economically prosperous Western societies have once again stolen a march on their Eastern counter parts - extract the good, ignore the irrelevant and suppress the bad.

Societies like India dont need to ape the Church, they need to honor and emulate movements that emerged from within - such as Sikhism.