In the eyes of many a right wing supporter PM Modi had committed the ultimate sin by inviting Nawaz Sharif to his swearing-in ceremony. I was one of those right wingers.
For someone who had expressed a desire to 'seal the border' with Pakistan (http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2013/01/seal-border-zero-contact-with-pakistan.html) Sharif being invited to foot on Indian soil was a betrayal. And for that invitation to come from a PM we had all supported with such passion and devotion was particularly painful.
But one thought kept gnawing at me "This was NaMo - the second coming of Chatrapati Shivaji Maharaj".
And suddenly it made all the sense. Upon further analysis I wrote the following post: "The PM's Dilemma"
http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2014/07/the-pms-dilemma.html (see : "Friendship with Pakistan and China")
As India's response has unfolded since the attack at Uri, PM's strategy has finally come to light.
(earlier post: The Modi Doctrine)
http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2016/07/the-modi-doctrine.html
The invitation to Nawaz, attending his grand-daughter's wedding, making peace with Bangladesh on border issue, etc. they were all part of a larger strategy, knowing fully well that Jihadi Pakis would never change their colors.
That PM did all this despite stinging rebuke from friend and foe alike is another feather in his cap.
PM needed to demonstrate to liberal global leaders from Obama to Merkel that he had exhausted every avenue to initiate and sustain peace in the sub-continent.
His early personal interventions have left no room for any country to complain that Modi's India has fallen short of taking a genuine shot at bringing peace to the sub-continent.
As 4 out of the 7 SAARC countries decide to boycott the upcoming summit, we can only marvel at how well PM's strategy has worked.
His tireless efforts on the foreign relations front have borne fruit with only a handful of countries willing to remain neutral, much less speak on behalf of Pakistan.
If implemented expeditiously (and there's no reason to think it wont) water management infrastructure on Indus rivers has the potential to permanently hold Pakis by the balls.
Pakistan doesnt manufacture much, with agriculture being a key export and foreign exchange generator (the other being begging/charity).
All India has to do is delay the release of water by a few weeks and Pakis will be on their knees. Every future Uri, Pathankhot could attract severe reactions from India.
Moreover, few future govts. (BJP or sickular) will be willing to weather the wrath of Indian voters by not leveraging this asset.
In one stroke, PM Modi has brought Pakis to their knees. Youtube Paki media clips on this issue and see the frothing at their collective mouths to view the impact this strategy is having on Pakis.
Pakis could react in one or several ways:
1. Appeal to International community
- No one wants to support the protectors of Osama Bin Laden. Pakistan will find very little traction even in Europe
2. Get China to build structures on rivers originating in China
- This is a non-starter. When India doesnt currently exploit even the 20% allocated to it, what impact will this have on India. Besides Pakistan wants the water to flow through on be stopped.
Secondly, only small parts of these rivers originate in China. These rivers gather most of their strength from the melting snow on Indian territory
3. Bomb the water management structures
- Any such attack will give India an opening to bomb all kinds of assets in Pakistan (from power plants on CPEC to dams and canals)
The Indus Water strategy allows India to control Pakistan by playing within the constraints described here (http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2016/07/the-modi-doctrine.html) with minimal loss of life or threat of blow back.
Pakistan is screwed......and I'm loving this.
For someone who had expressed a desire to 'seal the border' with Pakistan (http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2013/01/seal-border-zero-contact-with-pakistan.html) Sharif being invited to foot on Indian soil was a betrayal. And for that invitation to come from a PM we had all supported with such passion and devotion was particularly painful.
But one thought kept gnawing at me "This was NaMo - the second coming of Chatrapati Shivaji Maharaj".
And suddenly it made all the sense. Upon further analysis I wrote the following post: "The PM's Dilemma"
http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2014/07/the-pms-dilemma.html (see : "Friendship with Pakistan and China")
As India's response has unfolded since the attack at Uri, PM's strategy has finally come to light.
(earlier post: The Modi Doctrine)
http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2016/07/the-modi-doctrine.html
The invitation to Nawaz, attending his grand-daughter's wedding, making peace with Bangladesh on border issue, etc. they were all part of a larger strategy, knowing fully well that Jihadi Pakis would never change their colors.
That PM did all this despite stinging rebuke from friend and foe alike is another feather in his cap.
PM needed to demonstrate to liberal global leaders from Obama to Merkel that he had exhausted every avenue to initiate and sustain peace in the sub-continent.
His early personal interventions have left no room for any country to complain that Modi's India has fallen short of taking a genuine shot at bringing peace to the sub-continent.
As 4 out of the 7 SAARC countries decide to boycott the upcoming summit, we can only marvel at how well PM's strategy has worked.
His tireless efforts on the foreign relations front have borne fruit with only a handful of countries willing to remain neutral, much less speak on behalf of Pakistan.
If implemented expeditiously (and there's no reason to think it wont) water management infrastructure on Indus rivers has the potential to permanently hold Pakis by the balls.
Pakistan doesnt manufacture much, with agriculture being a key export and foreign exchange generator (the other being begging/charity).
All India has to do is delay the release of water by a few weeks and Pakis will be on their knees. Every future Uri, Pathankhot could attract severe reactions from India.
Moreover, few future govts. (BJP or sickular) will be willing to weather the wrath of Indian voters by not leveraging this asset.
In one stroke, PM Modi has brought Pakis to their knees. Youtube Paki media clips on this issue and see the frothing at their collective mouths to view the impact this strategy is having on Pakis.
Pakis could react in one or several ways:
1. Appeal to International community
- No one wants to support the protectors of Osama Bin Laden. Pakistan will find very little traction even in Europe
2. Get China to build structures on rivers originating in China
- This is a non-starter. When India doesnt currently exploit even the 20% allocated to it, what impact will this have on India. Besides Pakistan wants the water to flow through on be stopped.
Secondly, only small parts of these rivers originate in China. These rivers gather most of their strength from the melting snow on Indian territory
3. Bomb the water management structures
- Any such attack will give India an opening to bomb all kinds of assets in Pakistan (from power plants on CPEC to dams and canals)
The Indus Water strategy allows India to control Pakistan by playing within the constraints described here (http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2016/07/the-modi-doctrine.html) with minimal loss of life or threat of blow back.
Pakistan is screwed......and I'm loving this.
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