PM Modi's Pre-Uri (According to latest Pew survey) approval rating is at an unprecedented 81% (down from 87%) at the half way mark.
The honeymoon seems to be going strong. Other surveys have indicated a landslide 300+ seats for NDA if elections are held today.
But we must guard against complacency which seems to have crept in, if BJP's recent actions (or 'inactions') are any indication.
India's sickular/pseudo liberal evil empire has been hard at work. From the minute 2014 exit polls were announced, UPA and their carefully cultivated force multipliers went to work to probe PM Modi's defenses. They failed miserably for the first few months. But they have learned from these failures, tweaked their strategies and regrouped for a final assault.
They have come the following conclusion:
A second landslide for PM Modi would mean the beginning of the end of sickular politics practiced since before 1947.
The strategy is as follows:
1. Divide Hindus
2. Unite sickular forces under a single united front - UPA or UPA+
Objective: A defeat for the PM does not have to translate into an outright victory for UPA. In 2004, BJP had 3 more seats than Congress, but NDA lost big and that is precisely what Sonia is aiming for in 2019. Bring BJP' tally under 200 so that even if NDA3 comes to power it shackles PM Modi and leads to rampant corruption (for starters) and dilutes PM's anti-Sonia, anti-corruption crusade.
The first part of the strategy seems to be working spectacularly (with a little help from BJP and the larger Sangh parivar)
It was first tested with Jats in Haryana. The level and intensity of caste riots surprised many an observer (me included). Clearly the 'agitation' was orchestrated and its success seems to have unleashed three additional pressure points.
Dalits, Patels and now Marathas.
Notice how each of these castes have huge numbers in their respective states and have tasted power. Galvanizing them behind a caste based non-BJP formation would be relatively easy.
Mayawati - UP
Patels - Congress/Hardik
Marathas - Pawar/Congress
The biggest loser of this caste based consolidation would be PM Modi and his BJP.
The second part of the strategy (uniting sickular opposition) is a bit trickier.
BJP seems to be complacently enjoying the goings on within opposition ranks - whether is Nitish Vs. Laloo in Bihar or Cong Vs. Kejriwal in Delhi.
The thinking seems to be "these jokers can never unite, we have nothing to worry about"
Moreover, with regional satraps like Mamta and Amma likely to emerge as the single largest regional entities in the next Parliament, the number of PMship claimants would grow exponentially.
Currently, there are 6 - Mamta, Amma, Kejriwal, Nitish, Netaji, Rahul...with Pawar lurking (as always) in the background
Additionally, several key components are fiercely divided at the local level, fighting over the same regional turf - DMK vs. Amma, Mamta Vs. Cong, Maya Vs. Mulayam, etc.
But they dont need to unite into one happy family.
They dont need to. Even a limited coalition, restricted to key states of Bihar, UP, Maharashtra, Delhi would hurt BJP in a big way. The Ammas, Mamtas, etc. could be added post elections.
Even if UPA3 doesnt come to fruition, said alliance could siphon of 70-80 seats from BJP's current tally, bringing it exactly where sickular want it - at the 200 seat mark.
And therein lies the danger.
BJP seems to be asleep at the wheel.
Another key factor is that PM Modi seems to be using the same template he used to win in 2014. Though key elements of that template will remain relevant and crucial in 2019, caste and coalitions may end up playing a bigger role.
If Bihar could usher in jungle raj 2.0 with this strategy, UP could be next. A SJP+Cong alliance could take away 2-30 seats from the BJP for instance.
BJP must address these caste divisions right now before its too late.
Caste cannot be confronted in 2018. It must be addressed right away.
A two pronged strategy must be adopted to address demands for caste based reservations:
1. Constitute a committee to look into these demands at the national level and push the SC to decide on the constitutionality of these demands. This will at the very least, buy NDA time
2. Turn the Hindu Vs. Hindu fight on caste reservations into a Hindu Vs. Minorities fight (Clearly Owasi would jump at this opportunity). By highlighting religion based reservations as a threat to all reservations, BJP can put sickulars on the back foot and create a temporary stalemate. Which should hold till after 2019.
We can reassess this problem then. Hopefully, initiatives such as 'Make in India' will begin impacting local economies, raising demands for labor, thus eating into cries for reservations.
The honeymoon seems to be going strong. Other surveys have indicated a landslide 300+ seats for NDA if elections are held today.
But we must guard against complacency which seems to have crept in, if BJP's recent actions (or 'inactions') are any indication.
India's sickular/pseudo liberal evil empire has been hard at work. From the minute 2014 exit polls were announced, UPA and their carefully cultivated force multipliers went to work to probe PM Modi's defenses. They failed miserably for the first few months. But they have learned from these failures, tweaked their strategies and regrouped for a final assault.
They have come the following conclusion:
A second landslide for PM Modi would mean the beginning of the end of sickular politics practiced since before 1947.
The strategy is as follows:
1. Divide Hindus
2. Unite sickular forces under a single united front - UPA or UPA+
Objective: A defeat for the PM does not have to translate into an outright victory for UPA. In 2004, BJP had 3 more seats than Congress, but NDA lost big and that is precisely what Sonia is aiming for in 2019. Bring BJP' tally under 200 so that even if NDA3 comes to power it shackles PM Modi and leads to rampant corruption (for starters) and dilutes PM's anti-Sonia, anti-corruption crusade.
The first part of the strategy seems to be working spectacularly (with a little help from BJP and the larger Sangh parivar)
It was first tested with Jats in Haryana. The level and intensity of caste riots surprised many an observer (me included). Clearly the 'agitation' was orchestrated and its success seems to have unleashed three additional pressure points.
Dalits, Patels and now Marathas.
Notice how each of these castes have huge numbers in their respective states and have tasted power. Galvanizing them behind a caste based non-BJP formation would be relatively easy.
Mayawati - UP
Patels - Congress/Hardik
Marathas - Pawar/Congress
The biggest loser of this caste based consolidation would be PM Modi and his BJP.
The second part of the strategy (uniting sickular opposition) is a bit trickier.
BJP seems to be complacently enjoying the goings on within opposition ranks - whether is Nitish Vs. Laloo in Bihar or Cong Vs. Kejriwal in Delhi.
The thinking seems to be "these jokers can never unite, we have nothing to worry about"
Moreover, with regional satraps like Mamta and Amma likely to emerge as the single largest regional entities in the next Parliament, the number of PMship claimants would grow exponentially.
Currently, there are 6 - Mamta, Amma, Kejriwal, Nitish, Netaji, Rahul...with Pawar lurking (as always) in the background
Additionally, several key components are fiercely divided at the local level, fighting over the same regional turf - DMK vs. Amma, Mamta Vs. Cong, Maya Vs. Mulayam, etc.
But they dont need to unite into one happy family.
They dont need to. Even a limited coalition, restricted to key states of Bihar, UP, Maharashtra, Delhi would hurt BJP in a big way. The Ammas, Mamtas, etc. could be added post elections.
Even if UPA3 doesnt come to fruition, said alliance could siphon of 70-80 seats from BJP's current tally, bringing it exactly where sickular want it - at the 200 seat mark.
And therein lies the danger.
BJP seems to be asleep at the wheel.
Another key factor is that PM Modi seems to be using the same template he used to win in 2014. Though key elements of that template will remain relevant and crucial in 2019, caste and coalitions may end up playing a bigger role.
If Bihar could usher in jungle raj 2.0 with this strategy, UP could be next. A SJP+Cong alliance could take away 2-30 seats from the BJP for instance.
BJP must address these caste divisions right now before its too late.
Caste cannot be confronted in 2018. It must be addressed right away.
A two pronged strategy must be adopted to address demands for caste based reservations:
1. Constitute a committee to look into these demands at the national level and push the SC to decide on the constitutionality of these demands. This will at the very least, buy NDA time
2. Turn the Hindu Vs. Hindu fight on caste reservations into a Hindu Vs. Minorities fight (Clearly Owasi would jump at this opportunity). By highlighting religion based reservations as a threat to all reservations, BJP can put sickulars on the back foot and create a temporary stalemate. Which should hold till after 2019.
We can reassess this problem then. Hopefully, initiatives such as 'Make in India' will begin impacting local economies, raising demands for labor, thus eating into cries for reservations.
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