Bullet Train and the need for Retail Politics-of-Development

A fundamental human trait across cultures is to resent the rise and prosperity of those we consider to be our equals.  Indians seem to be particularly susceptible to this failing.  This is to be expected given the many fissures that exist within Indian society - caste, language, class, region, etc.

It is no wonder that India's political class has fine tuned the art of exploiting these fissures and ensure their continued hold over power regardless of their record in governance.

As arguments against the recently announced Bullet train between Ahmedabad and Mumbai have swirled across social media one is left with a sense of deja vu.  Leftist politicians have jumped on the proposed project as sharks on red meat.  Sadly, their empty rhetoric has the potential to register across India's impoverished voting classes.

Mumbai has become unlivable.  In almost any city around the world a $1MM apartment would come with all the necessary amenities. Square footage may be high or low, but features such as 24x7 power, clean roads, clean 24x7 water supply, parking spaces, parks and recreational facilities within walking distances, perhaps even a water front location, would be par for the course.

Nothing of the sort is available to any Indian citizen in any Indian city at that price point.  The crux of this situation is that if the rich cannot take such amenities for granted, what chances do less fortunate Indians (which is the vast majority) have of securing that elusive 'Indian Dream'.

Given this reality, any Govt. project perceived as being 'Elitist' brings with it the potential to irreversibly damage said govt's standing with the long disenchanted voters.

Laloo (aka Kejriwal 1.0) once exploited ABV's national highways by painting it an elitist project "as the poor dont own cars".

Kejriwal 2.0 and his sickular brethren across India are likely to exploit India's first Bullet train as just another project conceived and executed by an 'elitist' PM for his rich friends.

Despite his noble intentions, PM Modi is not merely walking into this trap he's cruising in, at light speed on the Millennium Falcon.

But the Bullet Train epitomizes a larger flaw in NDA's Politics-of-Development.

To be absolutely clear, his development agenda is spot on.  This is precisely how a nation's tattered and hemorrhaged economy should reconstructed.  From the ground up.

Please refer to the Appendix section on how the Bullet Train will bring exponential growth to the region and reduce the pressure on Mumbai.

As I have argued in previous posts this approach reposes faith in the hope that benefits accrued from this approach will 'trickle down' to India's poor i.e. the voters.

Even if this approach works and these temples to capitalism should drive much needed employment creation, a sizable section of India's poor in other states will be primed for exploitation by Sickulars with a tried and tested slogan "Bullet train for the rich and peanuts for us".

Moreover, if more pressing problems such as inflation and farmer suicides remain unresolved, this class warfare could assume serious heft in the run up to 2019.

There's no harm in building an economy from the ground up, but the PM must run a parallel effort to address the retail issues affecting Indians.  Issues they encounter on a daily basis - Inflation, crime, educational and job opportunities, etc.

Granted, these are not issues a PM can solve.  But a polity raised on Political dynasties who have turned Indian democracy into an periodically exchangeable aristocracy, this reason wont cut much ice.

In the mind of the average Indian, "We voted a PM with a massive majority, why can he do for us what has been done for the select few".

It is this mindset which has allowed the Laloos of the world to come back from political oblivion.  It is this mindset that PM Modi should focus on or else we may be staring at Priyanka-as-Rani-Laxmibai come 2019.



Appendix:


Before we examine the political fall out of this project we need to understand why a Bullet train is the need of the hour and not a luxury as opponents of PM Modi are painting it.

Housing:

Mumbai already ranks the the most densely populated and one of the most polluted cities in the world.  A collection of 7 island has simply run out of space to expand.  Skyscrapers can easy this pressure but it cannot alleviate the immense load the constant influx of new migrants puts on Mumbai's already precarious infrastructure.

One way to ease this pressure is the make more space available.  But space sans proper, modern amenities is a non-starter, as people and businesses would hate to move into locations which lack basic aforementioned amenities.

The bullet train now opens up Ahmedabad and a number of stops between Ahmedabad and Mumbai as possible avenues for both residential and commercial real estate.  

This additional supply of space will likely reduce prices in Mumbai but most importantly affordable housing could be within reach of India's growing middle class.

A sub-two hour commute coupled with modern amenities would allow Mumbaikars to consider setting up residence in Gujarat.  It would considerably ease the pressure on Mumbai.

Expanded across India, Bullet trains could ease pressure by converting cities within a 2 hour radius of major metros into satellite towns.

Safety:

With a modern rail line accidents should be a fraction of fatalities witnessed on highways.  For instance, Indian highways in particular are notorious for allowing live stock (among other culprits) to stray onto the highway increasing the risk of fatal accidents.

A high speed rail line would reduce the risk of accidents for the same number of people transported.

Speed/Capacity:

With an average speed of 300 Km/Hour and most trips accomplished within 2 hours, the number o f people transported should be considerable more than a super highway between the 2 cities.

Some have argued that a super highway could achieve the same objectives at a fraction of the cost.

But highways and bullet trains need not be mutually exclusive.  Most importantly Highways are bound to add to the growing pollution destroying India's air quality.  

Once constructed, Railway infrastructure requires a fraction of the cost to maintain as against a world class super highway.

Pollution:

As long renewable energy sources are used to power (even partly) the bullet train, the carbon footprint of this mode of transportation should be far superior to any land (or, air, water) based  alternative.

Proof of Concept:

The Bullet train would also serve as a 'Proof of Concept' for similar lines to link larger cities - Mumbai-Bengaluru, Delhi-Lucknow, etc.

Job Creation:

Bullet trains would generate direct employment, but the potential to create indirect employment opportunities in real estate, tourism, etc. would dwarf almost any other single initiative pursued by the current administration.

How to Prevent 'India Shining Part Deux'

During the heated campaign for Gujarat in December of 2007, the enterprising folks at NDTV sent a hard-nosed report to a remote corner of Gujarat to verify a staggering claim being made by CM Modi - "24x7 uninterrupted power".

With Dr. Prannoy Roy in the studios the NDTV reporter was broadcasting live from outside a small, barely lit neighborhood shop.  Approaching the shop keeper, the reporter - with barely concealed smugness - asked him why his shop showed no signs of the much tom-tom-ed 24x7 power.  

The shop keeper reached behind and over his shoulder and flicked a switch.  As the tube light flickered to life the reporter asked the shop keeper why he did not keep the lights on.  His response "I have to pay the bill, this power doesnt come free".  As the NDTV team collected their respective jaws from the floor, Dr. Roy could muster up a limp retort "expensive power" or something to that effect.

The ensuing election was fought on a mixture of development, Gujarati Asmita and Hindutva in that order of importance.

18 months of NDA tenure seems to suggest that PM Modi has settled on a similar strategy for 2019.

As explained in a previous post (http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2015/10/india-shining-part-deux-and-why-we.html) this strategy comes with inherent risks.

1. India is not Gujarat
The Gujarati shop keeper may be grateful for 24x7 power supply and may be more than willing to pay the bill but Indians in other parts of the country, fed on a steady diet of state largesse may not be so enamored with assured power supply if it comes a a steep cost.

Team Modi seems to have anticipated such a scenario.  Conversion of Indian power consumption to LED based light bulbs are but the start of an effort to bring down per capita consumption so that the inevitable high costs of generating and distributing power can be rationalized so as to ensure zero net impact to the consumer.

Even Jan Dhan accounts and direct deposit of subsidies may have a limited impact if prices remain high (more on this later)

BJP needs to understand the mindset of voters outside Gujarat before they reach a point of no return.

2. Time
As an International banker pointed out last week, PM Modi is taking a long term view and eschewing the temptation to take short cuts so as to install a strong foundation upon which to construct a truly vibrant, dynamic and friction-less economy.

Noble and appropriate as this path may be, it ignores the emerging political realities and perhaps the single biggest constraint faced by the Modi Administration i.e. Time.

As pointed out earlier, though completely necessary for India's long term economy well being, initiatives such as Make-In-India are unlikely to bring strong political dividends in 2019.  Simply because most new ventures are unlikely to have a meaningful and visible impact on India's economy in time for the election season which should commence around Oct 2018.

PM Modi had 36 months to deliver on major initiatives so as to allow people enough time to imbibe the benefits of these goods and services and be willing to associate them to the NDA in run up to 2019.  The PM and his team are doing great on some and not so great on others.

Controlling prices is one area where NDA has come up short.  Way short in public perception.

Price Rise:

Mr. Nitin Gadkari (easily the top 3 performing Ministers in the Modi Cabinet) came up with a lame defense on price rise.  "Prices of some items have fallen and others has risen".  This simply wont cut it with the common man.

If the govt. carries on with this 'item(s) of the month' philosophy toward price rise, people will come to permanently associate high prices with the NDA govt. at the center.

Even local price fluctuations will be dumped at PM Modi's door step and that is when the 'Suit boot ki sarkar' will stick like a 3M adhesive.

Moreover, failure to control prices will make new highways and other infrastructure improvements look like gifts created by the Modi Government for enjoyment of the rich.  

Congress and their media assets are likely to have a field day if even one daily necessity is out of reach of the poor in the run up to 2019.

As events of the past months have shown us, commodity markets can be manipulated with great ease.  A formidable industry has come up which survives on creating artificial scarcity of basic necessity so as to make windfall profits out of the misery of the common man.

No amount of flag ship successes on the infra and industrial fronts will mitigate the anger and rage engendered by high prices.

In India there are two political certainties - Caste and Prices.  NDA can tackle one but not both.

NDA's current strategy is pushing them into a cul-de-sac where they can get hit by a Price-Caste double whammy.

The Solution:

Given these constraints and the limited time at PM Modi's disposal what should be the Government's strategy going forward.  Firstly, there should be no let up on the remarkable work being done by various ministries.  This work will provide India with a strong foundation.

But to succeed in 2019, PM Modi must reverse engineer the pitch.

a) Identify the basic needs of the population i.e. Every day food items, Daily challenges (transportation, water, etc.)

b) Rapidly create infrastructure to bring prices of these items down to a level where they never become a political issue

Controlling prices:

Prices are driven by a basic interaction between supply and demand.  The NDA Govt. should build temperature controlled warehouses to store basic items of daily consumption - Onions, potatoes, Dal, wheat, etc.

These warehouses can and should be constructed on Railway lands close to major Railway lines.  Which in turn would make the shipping of these items both economical and time effective.

With most major rail hubs supplied with ample power through a national grid, power should be readily available to this 'cold chain'.

A national team could monitor local prices of these commodities on a daily weekly basis and inject the necessary supply as and when price spike so as to rapidly bring them down.

A big deal should be made of the this national cold chain so that people can directly associate this key infrastructure initiative directly to the PM.

Even 40 years later, people associate Indira Gandhi with India's progress.  As flawed as this perception may be, one must applaud Congress' marketing savvy in creating and perpetuating it.

NDA has much to learn from the Congress in this regard.




..... to be continued

Bihar and the Elephant in the Room

26/11 - That date is etched in the memory of every patriotic Indian.  The ensuing anger seemed to be as much directed at Paki pigs as it was towards Indian rulers who had left India vulnerable on all sides.

That Congress and her allies would face the music in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections was a given.  Even the usually smug presstitutes wore a downcast look across their collective faces.

Not only did Congress handily defeat the BJP across India, but what shocked native Mumbaikars such as myself was the fact that Congress-NCP was able to sweep Mumbai.  Surely MNS cut into opposition votes but the truth remained that South Mumbai witnessed one of its lowest voting percentage (at 43%).

It was an important lesson in understanding the complex psyche of Indian voters.  The nation reelected exactly the same bunch of crooks and anti-nationals.

Needless to say, that watching Bihar elect the convicted Char-Chor who destroyed Bihar over a 15 year reign wasnt a huge surprise.  What was surprising was the magnitude of BJP's defeat.

As BJP supporters recover from Bihar's shocking results, it is important that both BJP and its supporters draw the right conclusions.  For only the right insights will lead to effective solutions.

Followers of PM Modi have come up with a host of reasons to explain the Bihar debacle.  Foreign travel, Soot-Boot, ignoring Social media supporters, cow politics, Dadri, Award Wapsi, arrogance, lack of progress on black money, etc.

But none of these explain the rout.  This is not to suggest that these werent contributing factors.  They were but not to the extent where they would dictate electoral outcomes.

As it happened in Delhi so in Bihar, BJP's vote share remained close to what it polled in previous battles at the hustings.  What changed was opposition unity.

Opposition unity is the 'Elephant in the Room'.

(Note: In run up to 2004, it was a despondent Sonia who gave up her smug arrogance to reach out to opposition stalwarts.  A terribly weakened Congress eschewed 'ekla chalo re' and forged a solid UPA to defeat BJP)

However, opposition too gives us only a partial explanation for the massive mandate against the BJP.  To properly understand BJP's defeat one must first delve into the psyche of the much maligned Bihari voter.

You may be surprised to find that he isnt too different from the Indian voter.

So what drives the typical Indian Voter.

Self defeating Intra-Indian Competitiveness:

According to an old Harvard tale, a graduating class of MBAs were asked to select one of two options.

Option A:  You get a job that pays $90K but your friend gets one that pays $100K
Option B:  You get a job that pays $70K but your friend gets one that pays $60K

A startling 67% selected Option B.

Though this strange phenomenon is a common human condition, it is greatly amplified among Indians.  Surely if such a survey was conducted on graduating IIT or IIM graduates a 100% would select option B.

All kidding aside, caste, regional, communal and linguistic differences have greatly amplified this 'crabs in a well' trait among Indians.  Witness how young Dalit men are beaten up for celebrating life events (weddings, birthdays, etc.) in a socially ostentatious manner.

Arun Shourie narrated an interesting anecdote in one of his speeches two years ago.  Annie Beasant was asked what differences she noticed between Irish, Scottish and Indian freedom fighters.  Her response:  "Indians cannot work together".

Winston Churchill came to a similar conclusion.  I have personally noticed this dynamic play out within Indian Diaspora in America.  When two Indians come from different states they quarrel over which is better, when they come from same State, they quarrel over different regions within that state, when they come from same region of the state it usually gets down to caste, and so on.

Given these divisions, Hindu unity is a mirage.  It occasionally emerges to create an impact but that emergence is ephemeral at best.

It shouldnt surprise readers of this blog that caste allegiance is far stronger than allegiance to a common Hindu identity.

A vast section of upper caste Hindus much rather preserve the caste system than dilute it to yield Hindu unity.

India lacks a Hindu party because India lacks a Hindu Vote bank.

Laloo, Mulayam, Maya, etc. are products of this caste dynamic.  Even if these leaders are barred from participating in elections, others will emerge to fill the vacuum.

If a Laloo is swept back to power, the reasons behind this are simple.  He represents a giant 'F You'' to non-Yadavs.  Much as electing a corrupt Mayawati was a giant 'F You' to non-Dalits.

These groups will continue voting their caste no matter what development PM Modi brings to their door step.

If Hindu Mumbaikars couldnt vote to punish facilitators of 26/11 attacks why are we surprised that Biharis have voted their respective castes.

The question then arises how do we solve this riddle.  The opposition has found PM Modi's achilles heel i.e. Opposition Unity.  We must find a way around it.

Fortunately we have the time to take corrective action.

BJP may be tempted to take a conventional political route to address this challenge.  But molly-coddling

Solution:  Dilute hold of caste loyalties by bribing specific economically backward groups and replace caste with class.

It is impossible to erode an entrenched caste system that has prevailed for over 2000 years.  Instead bring economically weak sections from each caste under one umbrella and design programs that benefit them within 18 months.


Indians demand a two fold response from PM Modi

a) Give us tangible, visible returns on our political investments

b) Punish those who have looted our wealth

a) Tangible Results:  Direct Action i.e. Garib Kalyan Mela

PM Modi's heart is in the right place.  It is necessary condition for winning 2019 but not a sufficient condition.

Here's how NDA's development strategy works:

Clean up the system > Create a policy driven state and build vital infrastructure plus skilled workforce to attract investors > Investors will then set up manufacturing and service industries > which in turn will create jobs > Raising income levels of poor Indians > will raise their standard of living turning them into enthusiastic voters.

This is classic trickle-down-economics.  Even in highly efficient economies with limited friction, trickle down economics takes years to bear fruit.  In an highly inefficient, moth ridden Indian economy, benefits of economic expansions will take a decade to reach the intended recipients.

This is precisely what happened with ABV's NDA 1.  It was UPA 1 which reaped the political benefits of a robust economy which was bequeathed to Sonia thanks to ABV's exceptional work.

ABV received nothing but scorn from the marginalized (albeit dedicated Indian Voter).

For instance BJP-Sena govt. built the Mumbai-Pune expressway which gave a massive boost to a number of industries along the corridor.  It had no discernible impact on voting patterns across Maharashtra.

PM Modi's policies are driving him into a similar cul-de-sac.  What is needed is a massive direct-action initiatives a la Gujarat's 'Garib Kalyan Melas'.

This is not to suggest that war effort launched on Infrastructure development should be slowed or stopped.

The poor, helpless Indian wonders how a Vijay Mallya can be let off despite squeezing banks to the tune of 1000s of crores but the govt. drags her feet when it comes to handing out benefits to defense personnel and the poor.

The two tracks arent mutually exclusive.  If worked in tandem they will help BJP make the case that BJP is pro-poor.

More ideas on this line of attack coming up in future posts.

b) Punish the Looters

This part will need to be handled deftly.  Sonia will react and react aggressively.  Besides as argued in previous posts, timing of launching this attack is of as much (if not more) important as the action itself.

The previous timeline of targeting Sonia around mid-2017 is still applicable.  But delaying it for too long would render the PM open to accusations of political vendetta.

Instead, BJP should begin striking at Sonia and her larger secular parivar by launching selective leaks.  Put Sonia on the back foot by forcing her to defend the Kripa Shankar Singhs and Diggy Rajas.

This will also keep Sonia's media occupied with find ways to protect her.  Which would give BJP more leg room to focus on governance issues.

Every month (or quarter) BJP should force a new scandal on the Congress.  If BJP wants to forgo use of Govt. entities, 'non-state' actors such as Dr. Swamy can be furnished with the requisite ammunition to launch the attacks.

Such public spectacles will reassure the public at large that PM Modi is working toward avenging Sonia's decade long looting spree.

PM Modi cannot address local harassment meted out by cops and babus to India's helpless poor.  But if he can take down the Sonias and Sharads, he sends a message to Indians on the lowest rung - "The PM is with you, I'm punishing those that treat you like animals"

"I made Modi PM, What has he done for me" and the alternate BJP ecosystem

Some of us who supported NaMo through his toughest period harbored a hope, a wish that once we had 'our' PM it would elevate us to a (if not an exalted status) special group with access to the new NaMo ecosystem that was bound to replace Congress' own evil empire.

To suggest that events of the past 15 months have disappointed this group would be an understatement.

Others (like yours truly) who supported the PM with the sole aim of seeing a long cherished dream (of a strong, self-reliant, proud India) come to fruition have had no problems with his performance.

This is not to say that the PM has hit every ball out of the park.  Surely there have been hits and misses.  But any objective evaluation of his performance suggests an above average record in his first 15 months.

Given the slew of measures undertaken thus far, NDA should enter 2019 with a very solid record to present  before Indian voters come election time.

But we need to address questions being raised by some disgruntled members of NaMo's political family.

1. Why doesnt the PM create an alternate ecosystem to rival and replace Congress' evil empire

Though there's a genuine concern and some merit behind this argument, it fails to recognize the PM and his concerns.

In a purely utopian state a powerful PM with control over a vast state apparatus could easily resource a right leaning ecosystem into existence.  But willing such a system into existence would be fraught with immense danger to his fledgling govt.

The very announcement (formal or informal) of said system would trigger an internecine war with Right wing's best and brightest jockeying for prime slots closest to the center of power.

Most importantly it will by definition engender a new nascent corruption within NaMosphere.  Which in turn would carry with it the potential to harm PM Narendra Modi's greatest asset:  His unimpeachable record on corruption and his personal integrity.

The PM and his core team would then have to spend an inordinate amount of attention on resolving petty differences and hurt egos.  No PM, particularly one tasked with leading a revolution can afford such distractions.

2. Why does the PM ignore those that stood by him in his worst period

This too is a legitimate grouse.  But unless you were directly targeted by Sonia's goons through legal and illegal means, unless you were dragged into an inquiry or held behind bars like Amit Shah and Vanjara were, you dont really have much of a case.

Surely, PM Modi should assuage your hurt egos, but being a keyboard warrior (including myself) does not entitle you to any special treatment other than the joy of witnessing your dream agenda being birthed into existence.

NaMo put his life and liberty on the line to serve Mother India.  We should expect nothing more from him than having a better future for our country.

3.  But Congress' evil empire is striking back, NaMo needs his own army

Conventional wisdom dictates that the PM join this political arms race.  But what makes us think he hasnt already created an asset base that will help him wage this war.

More importantly is this war with India's corrupt, deracinated, brown sahib, elite worth fighting.  Thus far the biggest challenge to PM Modi has come from #AwardWapsi.  But that too has fizzled out under its own weight of hypocritical contradictions.

If the PM takes care of his promises - Prices, water, power, roads, security, jobs....none of these side shows will matter and if he fails to take care of them, the opposition will have no need for these back channel warriors.

4.  But Congress uses 'intolerance' to disrupt parliment and stall key bills and trip NDA's development agenda

Certainly Sonia's strategy is working.  But BJP seems to have found a way around it.

I had suggested this in April of this year - http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2015/04/why-bjp-and-pm-need-plan-b.html

This was before I was made aware of a brilliant new initiative in Maharashtra led by CM Fadnavis called 'JalYukta Shivar'.

You can google/youtube it to find out more about this great program.  It is precisely such initiatives that will make Parliament irrelevant to PM's development strategy.

While conventional economic wisdom dictates that the PM take drastic reform measures (requiring parliament's approval), political sagacity suggests that the PM should do what he has done in Gujarat - provide (in his first term) a more efficient Mai-Baap government (Described here >>  http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2011/06/understanding-indian-electorate.html)


That is precisely what NDA is doing and doing remarkably well.  It will be 2018 before we see tangible results.

5. Should the NaMo Army be disbanded?

Absolutely not.  That would be a colossal waste.  The NaMo army in all its incarnations is a massive force multiplier and should not be disbanded.  It should be reoriented to wage peace and prepare for the war that lies ahead in 2019.

It should be tasked with creating an alternate ecosystem but not one that mirrors Sonia's evil empire which is seeped in 'Politics of Patronage'.

This has already started happening to a certain extent.  Brilliant leaders of this brigade such as Rajesh Jain, Prasanna, Shashi, and others have begun building this alternate platform.  We should support their efforts by whatever means possible.

In addition the NDA govt can be asked for legitimate, non-partisan measures which will help open up the media space.

For instance, talk radio helped propel George W. Bush to the presidency should be encouraged as a political platform.  It has tremendous rural reach and can help get the right of center message to the masses.  Indian radio can be opened up by the govt. and right leaning voices can be allowed an equal space to help sustain this alternate ecosystem.

Folks, we have a once-in-a -millennium opportunity to set India on the right path.  Let's not blow it over perceived personal slights and petty differences.

India awaits its rightful destiny and we have final found a leader who can deliver us there.

The 'Modi' Doctrine: Weddings, Breaking Bread and going After Sonia

This is frustrating.  We social media, keyboard warriors played a small but important part in countering the enemies  of our beloved PM.  Tweet for tweet, blog for blog, fact-checking for fact-checking, few socio-political movements can claim such a contribution.

There's more than a modicum of justification in being upset with PM Modi when he's seen to publicly break bread with the same cast of characters who have attacked him personally and spent their considerable resources to not only stop him politically but to destroy his personal reputation and even eliminate him physically.

To that emotional, dedicated supporter (me included) watching PM Modi molly coddle the larger anti-NaMo universe is a tad bit frustrating.  From attending weddings in prominent Congress families to generously buying ads on sickular media outlets to inviting known NaMo haters to 'train' govt. employees on social media, the list seems to keep growing.

Moreover, these actions seem to suggest that our PM is asking his dedicated political soldiers to take a hike.

Dig deeper and these irritants seem to have a method behind the madness.  PM Modi is following the same doctrine in going after both Dawood and Sonia.

The D Company's ecosystem easily rivals that of C Company's (aka Congress Party).  NDA could easily pursue the many assets that support D and his nefarious activities across India and abroad.  He could make a public spectacle of this pursuit and gain political brownie points thus emerging a media darling as a crusader against Organized Terror.

A similar process could be applied to targeting the C Company.

But such a strategy would be counter productive and neither Dawood nor Sonia would suffer permanent damage.  At best they would suffer surface wounds and survive to fight another day.

Most importantly, targeting one or two Capos within these organizations would spread fear across within these organization and force all elements to unite behind the leader i.e. D and Sonia.

It would also signal the commencement of an undeclared war.  Neither Sonia nor Dawood are likely to sit back and watch as the PM makes a public spectacle of pursuing members of their extended crime families.

Even a Chidambaram or Chota Shakeel is a prize not worth pursuing unless it is to get the Queen and King of India Enemy Inc.

Sonia (like any leader of her stature) keeps a host of 'buffers' between her and her illegal acts.  MMS served just such a role (Coal Scam, 2G, etc.).

Hurting or leaning on these intermediaries will yield very little political dividend.  It is likely to have the opposite effect, in that other intermediaries will quickly close ranks around the queen.  The ensuing panic may engender acts of extreme stupidity.  

What is needed is a surgical strike targeting the head of the beast not her many appendages.

PM Modi's brain trust seems to have realized this dynamic.  Once you have severed the head of the beast, the body wont survive for too long.

The first variable in this 'Modi Doctrine' is to pursue the 'Head' and ignore all provocations and temptations to target smaller fringe players within Sonia and D's ecosystems.

With D Company this doctrine plays out linearly, but with Sonia other variables come into play.  

If the NDA govt is perceived to be directly and openly targeting Sonia, the latent sympathy that an electorally significant number of Indians continue to harbor for the Dynasty is likely to rear its ugly head.

Openly targeting Sonia also opens PM Modi to the charge of political vendetta.  Which could diminish the political impact of any interim judgement that can be extracted against Sonia or her immediate family members.

Another variable is timing.  Targeting Sonia (even in a supposedly open-and-shut case such as the National Herald Scam) is not a walk in the park.  As we have seen over the past few months, how the judiciary has been frightened (and/or Co-opted) into passing this case around like the hot potato it is.

Any politically significant ruling against Sonia could take years and may not arrive in time for the battle of 2019.  The trick then is to use the timing in NDA's favor by raising the profile of Sonia's perfidy around 2018.  Sonia should be tried and convicted in the court of public opinion.

PM Modi's current hands-off strategy is perfectly suited to manage all these variables and maximize the political gains by permanently painting Sonia as the Queen of Corruption.

There's a potential drawback to this strategy.  As CM of Gujarat the PM was able to blunt Congress' corruption charges very easily by pointing out that a Congress controlled CBI could find nothing on him.  Sonia's inability to corner CM Modi on corruption was perhaps the most significant contributing factor to 2014's historic mandate.

Come 2019 Sonia could make a similar argument.  Given her well known record of nefarious activities, her argument is unlikely to carry the same weight.

If you look past the noise of the day, you will see this doctrine playing out along favorable lines.

So my fellow Right Wingers, sit back, support your PM and let him do his job.

Limitations of Cow Politics- Part 1

Politics in any democratic set up is dictated by an innate need to create wedge issues.  Conservatives are more prone to relying on wedge issues as we have witnessed with the 'veil' issue in the recently concluded Canadian national elections.

Having gained a handsome political return via the Ram Janma Bhoom Movement (RJBM) BJP and its many clones (Shiv Sena, VHP, Hindu Maha sabha, etc.) have come to view wedge issues as their political bread and butter.  In other words this is their primary product.

Create a wedge issue, fire up the base and use the resulting momentum to gain a political windfall at the hustings.

Cow politics falls within this paradigm.  But is a deeply flawed strategy.  One which will only bring a very limited incremental gain to BJP's political kitty.

This is not to suggest that banning cow slaughter is a bad administrative initiative or a sub par political promise (more on this later).  What I'm suggesting is that the politics over Cow slaughter is a flawed strategy and must be dialed down immediately before it causes further damage to larger Hindutva goals.

Before readers accuse me of being a HINO (Hindu in Name Only), let me assure you that despite having lived in the west for a while I have never even tasted beef.  That is a personal preference.  A democratic society should not impose its food preferences on its citizens.

In the 21st century adults living in a free society should have the freedom to eat, drink, smoke anything their heart desires, as long as it does not impinge on the fundamental rights of other citizens.

Now back to the issue at hand.  Why is Cow politics so flawed?

Food preference as a political issue is a good issue to emphasize in a society where food is readily available to all citizens.  India now has the dubious distinction of having the largest number of people surviving on less than a dollar a day.

This group of citizens also tend to be dedicated voters.  Given that their destinies are dictated by prevailing power structures, voting fpr a benevolent political dispensation is their primary source of sustenance.  

This poor, marginalized voter is likely to ask a very simple every time he or she faces the wrath of his Hindu brothers or the state apparatus - "How is it that our well-to-do Hindu brothers go to war over a dead cow but seldom lift a finger over a dead dalit or 1000s of malnourished children".

One doesnt have to be an educated analyst to come up with this query.  Cow politics will unite the dedicated Hindutva vote bank but it is likely to subtly alienate those Hindus who have been kept at the fringes of Hindu society.

Even though slaughter houses may employ largely non-Hindu employees, many Hindu castes depend on cow parts as their primary raw materials.

Moochis (Cobblers) are a good example of this dynamic.  This caste not only manufactures and repairs leather footwear but is also engaged in tanneries.

Pursued beyond a point (Administratively banning beef) cow politics hurts Hindu unity and renders it susceptible to the charge of "In Hinduism an animal's life is more valuable than that of a lower caste".

So where do we draw the line and what are possible alternative Hindutva wedge issues which will bring BJP political dividends without breaking the bank?

Coming up in Part 2.

India Shining Part Deux and Why we Right Wingers should stop being so complacent

These are still early days.  17 months is too short a time to evaluate any government, let alone one which was ushered in with such great expectations.  Having said that, even PM Modi’s worst critics will concede that this govt has accomplished more in its short tenure than any previous dispensation.  The question is, will it be enough for BJP to retain power in 2019.

To put it bluntly, as things stand today, it won’t be enough.

I’m not suggesting that a Rahul Gandhi led UPA will trounce a PM Modi led NDA in 2019.  The trick is that he doesn’t have to.  Back in 2004, Sonia Gandhi did not trounce an Atal Bihari Vajpayee led NDA.  Their seat counts were almost identical.  But she did manage to defeat the NDA.

Moreover, under current circumstances the bar is set even lower.  All Rahul and his cronies across the secular spectrum have to do is ensure a hung parliament where BJP does not cross the 272 mark on its own.

Any scenario where BJP is kept close to the 200 mark is a victory for the opposition.  Because it forces PM Modi’s hand by compelling him to seek support from the likes of Shiv Sena and AIADMK and other morally ambiguous political outfits.  A hungry, wounded Shiv Sena, for instance would definitely demand its pound of flesh and handicap NDA to such an extent that governance would take a back seat with survival becoming the primary purpose of PM Modi’s second stint.

Why this despondency you’re probably asking?  Here’s why.

A.      ‘Perfect’ is getting in the way of ‘Good’

BJP’s primary voter – the urban middle class has started sensing the green shoots.   India’s GDP growth rate is now the highest in the world, it has becoming easier to do business in India, PM’s foreign trips have started yielding results in the form of strong FDI infusion.

But these are middle class metrics.  The lower middle class and the poor don’t understand these metrics.  Most importantly these do not represent tangible data points to this segment of the voter base.

This voter base has one primary data point and that is inflation.  While it is rightly argued that inflation rate has been brought down, prices are still increasing and that increase is occurring off of an already inflated base gifted to the country by the previous UPA govt.

Everything any govt. does is viewed by the poor through the prism of prices - even corruption.  Corruption acquires the requisite political potency only when accompanied by a back breaking rise in prices.

And frankly PM Modi has failed on this account.  His heart and the measures he has taken are in the right place.

But the PM may be letting the ‘Perfect’ get in the way of the ‘Good’.

The PM’s plan is sensible and appropriate one: 

Get land bill passed so that vital infrastructure can be built. 

This infrastructure will include a strong and wide network of interstate highway and rail system, powered by renewable power sources, which in turn will entice investors to build value added industries along the industrial corridor.

These industries in turn will generate the jobs and trigger an economic boom.

The logical thinking is that voters will associate the economic boom with NDA’s policies and initiatives and reward it handsomely at the hustings.

But what if this train of events is halted or muted and BJP is forced to enter 2019 with a slew of half-finished projects and a lopsided, uneven economic recovery?  PM Modi’s ‘Make in India’ is only just taking off.  Most factories required 2-3 years from project conception to roll-out.  That puts us bang in the middle of 2018 and start of the election cycle.  That gives no time for people to imbibe benefits of these initiatives and associate the accompanying feel-good factor to the BJP.

Moreover, there are just too many links in this chain of ‘trickle down’ economics.  Every link must be delivered in record time across a large swath of a diverse socio-economic and geographic terrain to be able to make a difference in 2019.

One component of the aforementioned industrial corridor will constitute the much needed ‘cold chain’.

Though this plan is on the right track it disregards ground realities.  By the time the PM executes on his plan and implements it, he may have run out of time.  An electorate reeling under burden of high prices and little tangible improvement to their daily lives will be willing to vote against the BJP or at the very least stay at home come Election Day.

It is important to note that all other issues ranging from relations with Pakistan to even war on terror are peripheral to electoral outcomes.  Surely certain segments of the electorate are swayed by these concerns but those segments are already in BJP’s camp. 

Given PM Modi’s personal charisma and appeal, it won’t be difficult to fire up the faithful and drive them to election booths.  But would that be enough to win in 2019.  And it wasn’t in 2014.  2014 was won thanks to a massive surge in independent and even minority voters who voted for Mr. Modi (and not the BJP).

As described here (http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2011/06/understanding-indian-electorate.html), BJP starts with 65% of the population as a potential voter base.  The poor and lower middle class don’t have the luxury of time to watch TV debates, read Op Eds and carefully sift through party manifestos to come to an informed decision.

Most will vote based on how and what they experience in their daily lives.  The trickle-down economics PM Modi is attempting will fall short in 2019. 

Neither BJP nor India can afford that.

B.      Rahul as a ‘Non-Starter’ leads to Opposition Unity

There’s one other political dynamic which has started playing out across India.  Anti-BJP votes have started to coalesce behind BJP’s primary opposition.  More so if this opposition has a credible face and a modicum of a track record in governance BJP will have its hands full.

With Congress weakening across India, the resulting vacuum will create a very 2004-like dynamic in the run up to 2019.  Rahul will (much as Sonia did in 2004) be willing to concede significant political space to opposition parties to engineer a ‘Maha-coalition’.  With an undeclared PM candidate, such a coalition could easily reduce BJP to 200 or 220 seats.  If by some miracle the ‘Maha-coalition’ is able to settle on a credible face (an aggressive, untainted MMS like figure), BJP will find itself in a soup.

We’re seeing this process of ‘unity’ already playing out in Bihar (after first working out in Delhi)

C.      Media’s anti-BJP strategy is working

To war hardened Right Wing core BJP Supporters issues of the day such as - Suite-boot ki sarkar, Endless foreign trips, anti-LAB, Parliament deadlock, Beef ban, Dadri, Khattar, Church-attacks, etc. seem like random, darts-at-a –board actions on the part of BJP’s opponents.

But make no mistake; this is a carefully calibrated strategy on part of Sonia’s empire.  It is striking back.  The objective of this strategy is not to score a decisive KO against the government.  It is to create a perception amongst the poor and lower middle class that BJP is a government for the rich, by the rich and off the rich.

Try explaining to India’s poor masses how PM Modi’s foreign trips will attract much need FDI which in turn will drive India’s economic recovery.  There are just too many dots to connect for a segment of voters more concerned about how they will feed their families.

This voter forms his/her perception based on how they are treated.  When the rich and mighty can get away with looting the nation (and the PM promised he would go after them – hammer and tongs) why are they being harassed on a daily basis by their local police and local administrations?  Despite giving their favorite leader a decisive mandate why can’t he use his “absolute” power to bend the rules to do them some favors?  They aren’t asking for 1000s of crores in right offs.  A mere guarantee of financial-security would do for now.

If rules can be ignored for a Mallya or Ambani why not for the Khushwaha driving his cab on the streets of Mumbai or Delhi.

Arvind “thulla” Kejriwal understands this sentiment and was able to trounce BJP by using rhetoric to win big.  That he’s a miserably incompetent administrator will restrict his political appeal.  But he did get the first part of this political equation right.

Media and their Congress masters also understand these factors and have spent the last year single mindedly painting the PM as an elitist who has lost touch with his roots.  And the mud is beginning to stick.

Surely, initiatives such as Swaach Bharat and Jan Dhan Yojana are exactly what the country needs.  These are also the ‘Efficient Mai-Baap’ strategy proposed in this post.  But the PM needs to extend these even further.  So that people can experience the ‘Modi Miracle’ first hand and not through ‘trickle down economics’

So what is the fix?

The Fix:  Reverse Engineer Campaign 2019 – Coming up in Part 2

Is PM Modi's NDA heading for 'India Shining 2'?

Is PM Modi hurtling toward another ‘India Shining’ moment in 2019?

To analyze this scary scenario we must first understand that phenomenon called ‘India Shining’?

By almost any yardstick ABV’s NDA govt had delivered on all fronts.  After a decade of scandals and coalition fiascos, ABV gave India unprecedented economic growth and stability.  Indian foreign policy acquired a new edge and sense of urgency.  There was a real sense of India having turned the corner and poised to take its rightful place with the big boys of global politics.

Lok sabha results of 2004 shattered those dreams.  Many political pundits blamed the flawed ‘India Shining’ campaign devised by Pramod Mahajan.  But the root cause lay much deeper.  The battle was lost long before campaigning commenced.  At best the campaign could have been tweaked to suggest an ‘India Rising’.  But that too would have failed to get BJP close to the magic figure of 182 seats.

Team BJP was gung ho about its prospects.  Most pundits and psephologists predicted a comfortable majority for NDA.  A deeply divided and fragmented opposition had no counter to the stature and popularity of ABV.  Sonia “We have two hundreyd and seventhy thoo seats” Gandhi was seen as a weak counter to ABV.  NDA had a solid record of governance (GDP, jobs, infrastructure, foreign policy) to present to Indian voters.  What could possibly go wrong?  But go wrong, it did.  And left India with a lost decade.

As PM Modi’s NDA 2 hums along on multiple fronts, it is hard to imagine a repeat of ‘India Shining’ in 2019.  But constraints of time, resources and political wiggle room are conspiring to land NDA2 in just such a ‘Chakravuyh’.  The emerging political dynamics in the run up to 2019 are eerily similar to those prevailing in 2002-2004.

Coming Soon:

Part 2:  Why NDA 2 may be heading towards ‘India Shining 2’

Part 3:  How to prevent a repeat of ‘India Shining’

About time the gloves came off - Get Sonia. Now.

Even before votes were counted the then PM-in-waiting had signaled his intentions not to pursue Sonia and her brood.  There were important political and logistical compulsions behind his reluctance (see this
http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2014/07/the-pms-dilemma.html )

PM Modi had hoped that this hands-off approach would reassure the Sonia clan and institute an unspoken ceasefire of sorts between the two sides.

It would entail the following:  NDA goes slow on Sonia's corruption and Sonia allows NDA2 to get on with the vital task of governance.

Sonia haters (myself included) had hoped that this would be a temporary reprieve.  With passage of time, having gathered an envious record of governance, NDA2 could open a can of whoop ass on Sonia and her extended political family.

Eschewing an aggressive anti-Sonia posture at the outset made sense in June of 2014.  There were too many trap doors.  A long list of enemies - both internal and external - nurtured and prepared by Sonia and her handlers were waiting in the wings to ensnare the new govt.

Conscious of these pitfalls, PM Modi ignored Sonia and very methodically pursued the items on his To-do list:

Fix defense procurement,
re-energize the economy,
neutralize NGO-Evangelist ecosystem, etc.

But Sonia analyzed the situation and came to the same conclusions.  A performing NDA2 would be the last straw.  A performing NDA2 would surely write her political obituary.

Having to choose between sitting still and striking back, Sonia opted for a preemptive strike.

And at least for now, it has yielded results.

With NDA2's initiatives in their nascent stage, public is yet to feel their complete and perceptible impact.  In the absence of these tangible benefits a perception found breathing room in public discourse.  "NDA2 seems to have lost momentum"

Moreover, BJP seems to have lost its aggressive political edge.

Within these changing equations, PM Modi has continued with his 'rise above petty politics' strategy.  His govt. has jabbed at Sonia's 'Vadra' wounds, with little to suggest that it was ready to go in for the kill.

As detailed here http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2015/07/pm-is-creating-political-vacum.html - this strategy still makes sense.  But when the enemy changes her strategy a course modification if not a course-correction is called for.

Clearly, Sonia feigned her illness to launder her wealth both in India and abroad.  Moreover, it is likely that even a section of the judiciary has been co-opted into her vast ecosystem.

Given the potent and evil power of this ecosystem, political elimination of Sonia is a risky proposition.  Furthermore it may corner NDA2 into a political and governance quagmire.

But a solution must be found.  Sonia left unchallenged will force the PM into the same quagmire.

i.e. Either strategy - Staying the course or striking back - entails the same risk.

Having exhausted 15 of the 36 months needed to deliver good governance, PM Modi's options are now shrinking.  Time is not on his side.

The Gloves must come off.

By striking first, Sonia has stolen the early advantage but she doesnt (as yet) hold all the cards.

She can be wounded.  But the time for it is now.

PM is creating a Political Vacum

For long suffering Indians like us, May 16th will forever remain a day of celebration.  It represents the culmination of a long battle and the first time Independent India elected an unabashedly Hindu leader.

PM Modi played the match perfectly.  Cornering pseudo secular opposition by neutralizing their favored battlegrounds whilst simultaneously launching quasi Hindutva strategies (such as Ganga bachao Andolan) which were impossible to counter.

But none of these would have been possible sans the unselfish work done by his core Hindu constituency.  They volunteered their time, their sweat, blood and tears because in PM Modi they saw the reincarnation of Chatrapati Shivaji Maharaj.

A man reborn to correct historical wrongs and restore Hinduism to its primary place in the world as Jagat Guru.

14 months has begun denting this belief.  In all fairness and in defense of Modiji, this is an unfair evaluation.

a) 14 months is too short a duration to judge anyone's performance, much less that of a leader straddled with unimaginable odds
b) There has indeed been action on the ground, from roll back/ban on Beef exports to reclamation of Yoga as a uniquely Hindu practice

What the core Hindu vote bank is failing to consider is that the leader of a democratic, responsible nation cannot act and speak as a candidate would.  We see this in nations across the globe.  Even after terror acts of 9/11 the Evangelical Christian President George W. Bush had to pay the usual, politically correct, lip service to how "Islam was a religion of Peace".

Similarly President Xi of China seldom comments on his government's draconian, anti-Muslim actions in Xinjiang.  Maintaining a 'secular' public posture.

The difference some may argue is that these heads of state peddle the PC stuff in public but in private they make lethal plans to hit the enemy where it hurts most.

However, they fail to understand that USA and China are the world's 1st and 2nd largest economies with defense forces that can fight a multi-front war.

In contrast, India has been lurking from one disaster to the next with very few countries willing to take her seriously as a global player.

Even without such lopsided odds, it behooves a head of state to always maintain a politically correct public posture.

Any departure from a centrist line would create unnecessary controversies and derail the very development agenda the PM was elected to implement.

While such a stance is no doubt a sagacious one, it could prove politically suicidal come reelection time.

Across the length and breath of India, Muslim hordes are muscling in on timid Indians.  The case of 14 year old teenager Tuktuki Mondal in Bengal is only the most recent manifestation of this growing aggression.  An aggression that tramples and trivializes all democratic values of tolerance and coexistence.

The collective social and political impotence of Hindus, is breeding a resentment not seen since the 'Jinnah was secular' gaffe from the original Hindu Iron Man.

Under the express orders of PM Modi, BJP and the larger sangh parivar have been instructed to eschew any political controversial 'communal' postures.

These twin factors and the consequent frustration engendered by them is creating a vacuum where no voice with any political or social heft is available to voice and support legitimate grievances of a beleaguered Hindu community.

If BJP and the PM continue with their hands-off approach towards the plight of Tuktuki Mondals, 2019 will prove to be a disaster.  Not because a Nitish or Pappu or Kejri would rise up to challenge the BJP, but their united front could deeply puncture the massive majority given to the PM in 2014.

(A Hung parliment would be just as disastrous to India and Hindus.)

After all it was a disgruntled Hindu core constituency which stayed home on election day in 2004, leading to a 10 year Congress rule that is easily the worst stretch of governance witnessed by Independent India.

PM Modi needs to find a way to fill this vacum and fast.  Time is not on his side.

Pakistan is screwed. Here's why.

While even his most ardent supporters were wondering why a freshly minted PM would make foreign travel his focus, PM Modi has (in his usual calm, calculated fashion) made significant strategic moves to build a strong defense against India’s primary enemies – China and Pakistan.

China:

China is committing a fundamental error by making enemies in their immediate neighborhood.  Perhaps they fear the worrying signals emanating from their slowing economy.  

Dooms day scenarios predicting a Chinese economic capitulation have fallen apart over the past 2 decades.  But recent data and actions by their most influential and well connected citizens suggest emergence of many a storm on the Chinese economic horizon.

Lack of internal democracy makes China’s Communist Party overly dependent on a red hot economy as the primary leverage to keep its citizens from engineering a ‘spontaneous’ ‘Chinese Spring’.

Over the years localized revolts have been quelled by a combination of brute force and economic incentives.  A slowing economy eliminates the latter as a key weapon in the government’s arsenal.

Another leading indicator is the behavior of Chinese millionaires.  Credible reports indicate that a majority of Chinese millionaires have either emigrated or plan to emigrate—taking their spending and fortunes with them. The United States being their favorite destination.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101345275

There cannot be a greater vote of no confidence in China’s ability to sustain its stellar economic performance.

These worrying signs may be a key factor in China’s sudden urge to intimidate its neighbors and capture as much territory while the going is good.

Another factor contributing to China’s territorial ambitions is the slow but steady decline of the United States of America as the preeminent global power. 

China territorial greed is engineering the largest realignment of global forces since the Cold war.  This realignment is taking place across nations who have no real economic, cultural or historic hostility towards each other.  US, Japan, India, Philippines, Vietnam, Australia, Malaysia, and Indonesia have no problems uniting under a single anti-Chinese coalition.  They have no competing claims between themselves and the looming Chinese Dragon is acting as a strong adhesive to mend whatever historic animosities that may have existed between these nations (US and Vietnam for instance).

PM Modi has understood these competing variables.  His ‘Act East’ policy has already started paying dividends.  Most importantly he has understood exactly how to leverage India’s many virtues (soft power, history of pacifism, diversity, etc.) and neutralizing her many weaknesses (weak economy, under equipped military, etc.)

For instance, many Internet Hindus were upset with signing of the Bangladesh accord.  “10,000 acres traded for what?” was the common refrain.  But a calm and pro-India, subcontinent is an absolute necessity. 

Starting with the invitation to SAARC heads of state to his inauguration PM Modi has played his cards extremely well.  Within a short period India has been able to bring on board Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka and make them a part of the Indian Century as envisioned by PM Modi.

By inviting the Chinese to participate in India’s economic miracle, PM Modi is trying to build a strong business constituency within China, in much the same way China built a pro-Chinese lobby of American business leaders.

PM Modi has built a strong fortress across the subcontinent.  Which in turn has led to the isolation of Pakistan.

Impact on Pakistan

Some credit for Pakistan’s current state must go to earlier govts. Starting with ABV’s NDA-1 and even UPA 1 and 2. 

Both UPA 1 and 2 seem to have built strong intelligence assets within Baluchistan.

However, Pakistan itself is the single biggest contributing factor in the decline of Pakistan as a nation.  Their hatred for “bania” Hindus has forced Pakistanis into a cul-de-sac which will lead to Pakistan’s ultimate demise as a coherent geo-political entity.

Recent statements and actions from the Modi government suggest that this is PM Modi’s ultimate goal but in the interim he wants to implement the Shourie Doctrine i.e. keep Pakistan’s army so preoccupied on its western border that they have no time or resources to look east.

Apart from delusional Pakistanis (and a few Aman-ki-Asha types) no one believes Pakistan is a victim of terror.  Even the most pro-Pakistan elements within the American foreign policy establishment view Pakistan with deep suspicion today.  Finding Osama Bin Laden comfortably ensconced in a fortified Army cantonment was a kick-in-the-nuts for many a Cold War American warrior.

Most importantly, American public is now convinced that Pakistan is the epicenter of terror.  The growing distance between these former allies is evident from recent American behavior.

-          President Obama was the first American President not to include a Pakistan stop-over on this trip to India

-          American arms supply now come with strings attached i.e. they can only be used in the western theatre and not against India

-          American economic aid has been stagnant for several years

-          Americans have refused to include anything perceived as anti-Indian in their joint statements with Pakistan

-          America and her allies have refused to utter the ‘K’ word

-          America refused to offer Pakistan a nuclear treaty on par with India

-          Lack of fresh batch of F-16s have forced Pakistan to look at sub-par Chinese fighter jets

This ‘de-hyphenation’ of Indo-Pak has been understood by Pakistani political and military leadership.  The eagerness to get even closer to China is a last ditch, desperate attempt on the part of Pakistan to shore up its defenses against India.

Pakistan’s creation and continued nurturing of Jihadis have made the world wary of its intentions.  Moreover, it has pushed Pakistan into a corner and eliminated all or most of its strategic options.

Afghanistan has come to understand Pakistan’s use of its territory for strategic depth.  After the havoc imposed on the region by Pakistan’s progeny - the Taliban - both Afghanis and Iranians view Pakistan with deep suspicion.

Iran in particular would be very concerned with the long term objective of Pakistan’s Islamic army to create a Sunni-Only demographic across the region.  The almost weekly massacre of fellow Shias in prominent Pakistani cities can only serve as a frequent reminder of what awaits a Shia Iran if Pakistan ever goes completely ‘postal’ and Jihadis overcome their handlers to take over the reins of Pakistan’s substantial military resources.

Hemmed in by suspicious neighbors and former allies Pakistan has no other options but to court the Chinese and genuflect at the altar of the Dragon Gods.

For the Chinese, Pakistan is just another option, for a friendless Pakistan, China is now its only recourse.

This is the same China that is imposing the most draconian anti-Islamic secularism in Muslim majority Xinjiang.  Muslim children aren’t allowed to learn about their faith; adults cannot adopt Islamic symbols like the hijab or keeping a beard. 

http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-china-blog-28263496

If Pakistan has to now depend on such an ‘ally’ you know these are desperate times.

America followed a use-and-discard policy with Pakistan, but China seems to have an even more sinister design i.e. to occupy Pakistani territory.  These territorial ambitions are manifested in the form of the much publicized ‘POK to Gwadar economic corridor’.

 The strategy serves multiple objectives:

a)      Add one more pearl to the string of pearls China is building to restrict India

b)      Economically shore up a sinking Pakistan

c)       Establish a presence within Pakistan so as to control and if possible terminate, the growing rebellion in Muslim majority province of Xinjiang which gains its sustenance from within Pakistan

A strong, prosperous Pakistan is in nobody’s interest.  But a pliant, beleaguered Pakistan is vital to global peace and prosperity.

Another key variable in this equation is Uncle Sam.  The growing foothold gained by Indian intelligence in Afghanistan and Baluchistan suggests a passive (and perhaps active) support from America.

Some American foreign policy mandarins may continue harboring fond memories of their joint strategy that took down the Soviet Union, but emergence of a new axis-of-evil (Pakistan-China-Russia) suggests a rethink in Washington DC. 

This rethink is borne out by the growing proximity between Washington and Delhi and the tangible space DC is willing to concede to India within south Asian.

As these new equations crystallize, the contradictions that led to Pakistan becoming an International pariah will only sharpen.  Both China (Xin Jiang) and Russia (Chechnya) have restive Muslim regions.  Any actions taken by these two nations will have a ripple effect across Jihadi enclaves within Pakistan.

It is in this context that the economic corridor is likely to become Pakistan’s waterloo.   Pakistan is raising a large military division with the sole purpose of securing the smooth construction of this corridor.

Given the difficult geographical, cultural (Punjabis Vs Balochis, Kashmirs) and religious (Sunni Vs Shia) terrain traversed by the proposed highway, both India and the US would be salivating at the prospect of creating a host of troubles for Pakistan so as to keep its army pinned down in defending this endless endeavor.

Such an effort is likely to take decades and require gargantuan resources unavailable to an impoverished nation.

Pakistan could raise resources from the Middle East.  By turning down Saudi request for military intervention in Yemen, Pakistan has angered its longtime friend and financier i.e. the House of Saud.  Any future requests for funding are likely to come with riders attached - an immediate, tactical quid-pro.

Similarly, Uncle Sam is unlikely to invest in an effort which would further strengthen its next Cold war foe i.e. China.

That leaves Pakistan at the mercy of China to fund this corridor.  Nothing suits India and America more than having the Chinese invest in a bottomless pit.  Both Allies would make it their mission to turn this proposed corridor into a quagmire.

Perhaps Pakistan could raise much needed funds from International markets.  But a country that cannot convince another nation to play a cricket series within its borders is unlikely to attract meaningful foreign investments.

Pakistan has raised an Islamic Frankenstein’s monster which will consume it within the next 2 decades.

India has reached a stage where her economy is too big and too diverse to be threatened by Jihadi terror.  With a 1.2 billion strong ‘virgin’ market, India (and to a lesser extent Africa) represent the last two continent-sized global economic drivers capable of lifting a stagnant world economy.

By presenting itself as a place where business gets done and fortunes get made, Modi’s India will gallop so far ahead of Pakistan that every year of economic growth will put a decade long distance between the two nations.

With economic clout comes political and military clout.  PM Modi is attempting just such a strategic restructuring so as to place India where it belongs - At the international high table.

The recent surgical strike in Myanmar should be considered within the aforementioned equations.  The public celebration of this success was meant to demonstrate India’s capability and willingness to extend similar actions into Pakistani territory.

Most importantly, India’s blunt and tough response over the past 12 months suggest a long term strategy to leverage every Indian advantage to subdue and eventually destroy Pakistan as a nation.

From Baluchistan to POK to the Karachi stock exchange.  Pakistan is about to start feeling the heat.

The string of chest-thumping statements from Pakistan suggests the message got through.  Pakistan will now have to engage in an arms race across multiple fronts.  Keeping an army on constant alert costs significant resources, something the ABV govt discovered during Operation Parakaram.

India can now inflict considerable economic and military punishment on Pakistan without breaching the nuclear threshold.  Pakistan’s tactical nukes have suddenly become door stops.

Each percentage growth in India’s GDP will leave Pakistan further behind.  Unable to channel her Jihadi monsters across the border will force them inward.

Most importantly, as FM Manohar Parrikar stated a few weeks back, Pakistan has created Jihadi assets which an economically superior India can acquire to turn against Pakistani military targets.

If you think this is all wishful thinking, think again.  The process has commenced.  

NaMo’s India will only expedite it.