ModAmerica - Did China walk into a trap

As details of China's aggression in Galwan Valley have emerged two questions have perplexed experts and laymen alike. 

China has taken over strategic mountain top locations and brought in heavy construction equipment.  None of these actions could happen without Indian intelligence having noticed it.  Not on a barren terrain and in the age of satellite and drone saturation. 

So the logical second question comes up.  Why did Indians not react in a timely manner.  At the very least Indian Army could have moved in and taken up positions to freeze Chinese actions. 

The answers to these questions lie within NDA's political actions.  Having followed and tracked PM Modi for almost 20 years now, I can say this with the greatest of confidence that he does not make loud pronouncements.  And neither does his trusted deputy HM Amit Shah. 

But ever since Article 370 was scrapped and J&K trifurcated,  Amit Shah in particular, have gone to town on how they plan to take back POK.  India's DM Rajnath Singh has played up the intention as well. 

It made no real sense.  Why would you publicly declare your intention and surrender the element of surprise?  Why warn your enemy and help them prepare for a possible attack. 

A panicky Pakistan has gone into hyper preparation.  Moving assets closer to the border and freaking out at the mere sight of a MIG on the India side of the border. 

As you place all these pieces in place an interesting picture emerges.  Was the intention to bait China into taking some action and then using the 'attack' to justify a grand alliance with the US? 

There's no way India's political equations would allow such an alliance in peace time.  From the loony Left to the Hindutva Right, India has a huge number of skeptics vis-a-vis an American alliance.  Given America's unreliability and a use-and-discard policy it has adopted with former allies, this reticence is partly justified. 

However, it does not take into account the altered global and regional realities.  A Chinese attack was perhaps the only way India could justify an alliance and railroad its way over local political opposition. 

Indians as a people have always admired America and the two democracies are natural allies.  The large number of American CEOs of Indian descent is just one example of how seamlessly Indians fit in with the American way of life and the broader American ideals of freedom, justice and the pursuit of happiness. 

Galwan was the perfect way to push India into a long term grand alliance on the lines of the alliance Post-war Japan nurtured and constructed with the Americans. 

The alliance holds great promise beyond military cooperation.  American businesses fleeing from China could provide the same level of management, tech and financial expertise and support to Indian companies which they provided to China over the past 20 years without incurring the risk of IP theft and military threat. 

Indians would have no problem in trading prosperity for American Hegemony as long as America doesnt take India and Indian concerns for granted. 

As long as America leaves wiggle room for India to posture on issues pertaining to Iran, etc. an Indo-US alliance could prove as effective as the Marshall plan. 

A new world order is taking shape and history may recognize June 16th, 2020 as the date it was birthed on the slopes of Himalayan moutains in the Galwan valley.

Galwan - America the Joker in the Pack

Experts have given several reasons for America's public restrain on China's aggression in Ladakh.  

Why, it is argued, is America silent if China has emerged as enemy #1.  The reason is fairly straightforward.  A limited set back to India in its conflict with China fits perfectly into America's plans. 

A 'defeated' India with a highly publicized Chinese occupation in Ladakh will have few options other than to align completely with American interests.  No more non-alignment. 

More importantly, a Chinese 'victory' will neutralize India's domestic anti-American lobby.  From CPI to Urban Naxals and a section of the Sangh. 

Another major benefits accrues to the Americans for being hands-off at this juncture.  American business fleeing out of China would find an Indian society very open and susceptible to its charms. 

If played deftly, India could gain significantly from the emerging alignment of the new world order. 

Imagine, American sagacity and discipline married with Indian ingenuity. 

We could be the first alliance to master space travel, dismantle the Communist-Islamist alliance and usher in a 1000 years of peace. 

China - Galwan and Beyond

In almost any conflict, it is very easy to get drawn into the events at hand.  China's aggression in Ladakh is one such event.  The pundits are grappling for an explanation.  Why would China take the risk now, given the plethora of challenges it faces on multiple fronts.  

Indians (as would be expected) are chalking up this aggression to China's domestic weakness.  Or more importantly the supposed challenges Xi Jinping is facing within the CCP.   

This is wishful thinking.  Galwan happened not because China is weak but because Pakistan is at the weakest point in its history. 

As explained in earlier posts (http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2017/06/the-approaching-war-india-vs-pakistan.html)  Pakistan represents China's biggest strategic investment and the key to its super power ambitions beyond the South China Sea.  

Recent reports of the massive scale of corruption within the much celebrated CPEC project give us an insight into how comprehensively China has taken over Pakistan.  

This Chinese 'land grab' has coincided with Pakistan's descent into an economically failed state.  Even expat Pakistanis are refusing to invest in their country. 

Additionally, their Muslim allies across the Arab have sensed their beggarly economic status and have decided to abandon them.  Throwing small crumbs in their direction for old times sake. 

China now remains Pakistan's only dependable 'ally'. 

India's decision to abrogate Article 370 was never a one-off move.  It was part of a much larger strategic initiative to achieve multiple objectives: 

1. Take back POK 
2. End CPEC 
3. Cut off Chinese access to the Arabian Sea and through it the middle east 
4. Dismember Pakistan 
5. Establish land access to Afghanistan 

China cannot afford an Indo-Pak war.  Any such conflict will have 3 possible outcomes.  None of which favor China. 

1. Pakistan is defeated and India takes back POK 
2. India makes limited gains but stalls CPEC and all the assets China wants to build 
3. A limited, localized nuclear exchange which, again, permanently destroys CPEC and Pakistan as a Vassal state, a West Coast North Korea if you will.

Much has been made of how India (under Chinese threat) is moving closer to the United States.  But actually in equal measure, it is the USA which is rolling out the red carpet for India given its emerging Cold War with China. 

Pakistan's dependence on American military hardware makes it a sitting duck in the event of a war that extends beyond the first week or two.  Over the past several years, reports have emerged of how Pakistan is cannablising its own F-16s for parts to keep their main stay fighter jets in war readiness.  They have also sought help from Turkey (a NATO ally with its own F-16 fleet) in this regard. 

If Pakistan's main defenses are on such tenterhooks, what does it say about their other military assets.  Tanks, Howitzers, Transport aircraft, wouldnt all these be facing the same shortages.  Over the years China has supplemented some of this Pakistani hardware with their own jets and other military assets.  But these have never been battle tested. 

The J-10, introduced as recently as 2007 is based old Soviet designs and apart from Chinese vassal state has found few takers on the international market. 

China cannot possibly replace Pakistan's aging American hardware accumulated over several decades.  The cost would be staggering. 

Given these factors, China's decision to engage India at Galwan can be explained by only one insight - Preemptive Strike. 

Prevention, in the Chinese strategic doctrine, has emerged as the primary strategy.

China wants to prevent an Indian attack at all costs.  Galwan wasnt about land grab or salami cuts or any of the conventional reasons belted out by experts. 

It has been executed to scare Indians into not attacking Pakistan. 

Once we understand this, we can now take the appropriate measures to counter China. 

And the best way to counter China is to play possum and take this Chinese humiliation while continuing with the preparation for a war with Pakistan. 

There will never be a better chance to permanently and irreversibly counter India's situation with Pakistan than in the next 6 to 12 months. 

Take even 20 kms of strategic depth within POK and Pakistan can do little but witness its own disintegration. 

India should sit back, keep preparing and attack Pakistan at a time and place of our choosing.  The stars are aligned.  Har Har Mahadev.