It is now a foregone conclusion. A matter of when, not if.
India will attack Pakistan. Pakistan knows it and can do little about it.
What is to be seen is the nature, intensity and final objectives of this assault.
We can analyze and speculate.
The planning for this assault seems to have started as soon as PM Modi took office. As most other Internet Hindus, including yours truly were agitated and angered by Modi Government's supposed hobnobbing with Pakistani interests, the Modi-Doval team was putting in motion a long term strategy to find a permanent solution to Pakistan. CPEC merely accelerated the timeline.
PM Modi's 'unplanned' surprise visit to Pakistan was particularly painful. "HOW COULD HE?" was the consensus sentiment across PM Modi's core supporters.
But Pakistan is a complex problem. If mere military solution worked, India would have exercised that option a long ago. Pakistan has since its inception, positioned itself as a leader of the global Muslim Ummah. Any assault on Pakistan would be perceived as an attack on Muslims.
PM Modi needed to make a public and demonstrable effort to make peace with Pakistan so that European bleeding heart rulers and Arab monarchies would be convinced that the assault on Pakistan was a last resort.
A. The Arab Variable:
The first part PM Modi's strategy aimed at decoupling Pakistan from the rest of the Muslim world.
The soft approach toward both Saudi Arabia and UAE in particular should been seen in this light. This approach involved 3 facets:
1. Leverage the peaceful, hardworking Indian diaspora to reassure these Arab nations that they can count on India to support them against their own extremist elements
2. Subtly play on the growing fears of Arab rulers that the jihadi fires funded and nurtured by them are approaching their own citadels and unless nipped in the Pakistani bud would consume them sooner rather than later
3. Build strong economic interdependence. According to Paki media India-UAE alone have signed MOUs worth $75 billion. The main feature of this relationship is UAE providing India with energy security by building an oil reserve on their soil while India provides UAE with food security by providing dedicated Agri zones.
The success of this Arab outreach can be gauged from the muted response vis-a-vis Kashmir from the larger Muslim Ummah particularly the Arab states.
B. China - The Wild Card
Perhaps the biggest variable in creating a lasting and permanent solution to the Pakistan problem is China. With America having given up on Pakistan, China remains India's biggest worry. Any overt support from China must be accounted for and neutralized.
It is safe to assume that China will do everything within its right and beyond to preserve its carefully nurtured asset. But the very factors that have driven Pakistan into China's arms can and will be used to unravel the Sino-Paki alliance.
Islamic insurgencies are sprouting across the globe. From Manila to Manchester and beyond. China has its own ticking Islamic time bomb - XinJiang. Chinese arrogance seems to think it can put the Jihadi Genie back in the bottle.
One must applaud the ambition of the Chinese leadership. With CPEC China is attempting to win a war in a region and against a foe where 3 Empires have failed.
Chinese strategists and leadership have come to the right conclusion i.e. Pakistan is a basket case and beyond redemption.
As argued here last year - http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2016/08/chinese-acquisition-and-balkanization.html - CPEC is an attempted takeover of Pakistan by the Chinese Communist party.
Leaks published by Pakistan's leading daily Dawn have essentially confirmed the arguments set forth in the aforementioned post.
If anything China's ambitions are far greater in scale and go far beyond establishing pockets of influence deep inside Pakistan. This is an attempted hollowing out of Pakistan - geographically, militarily and culturally.
Chinese calculations (at this point in time) seem to be spot on. A friendless Pakistan has its back to the wall. Former owners America and Saudi Arabia have decided not to renew the lease on their former b...h.
A nearly bankrupt Pakistan has started out on its annual pilgrimage with an even larger begging bowl.
Now add to these woes the never relenting march of radical Islam and a hostile arch enemy India which is finally getting its act together under PM Modi and you have Pakistan with few choices.
For China the choices are stark and binary:
A) Sit back and watch radical Islam over run Pakistan with India attacking it in the near future to forever neutralize China's number one leverage in the region
OR
B) Take a more proactive approach and turn Pakistan into an Islamic North Korea - dependent on the CCP for even the most rudimentary military and economic needs and in return ready to do China's bidding at the drop of a hat.
China wants to replicate in South Asia the same leverage it enjoys vis-a-vis North Korea i.e. have an ally with which hold the entire region to ransom.
But China is making a vital error in its carefully though out calculations.
Pakistan, it is often said, depends on the 3 As - Allah, Army and America.
While CPEC has co-opted the mealy mouth Army, Allah and America are likely to react with a vengeance to any Chinese encroachment on their long held turf.
Allah:
It is now almost a weekly occurrence - news reports trickling out of China's muslim majority state Xin Jiang describe the draconian measures China is taking to suppress (and potentially eradicate) every symbol of Islam.
What were occasional news reports have become routine. here's a sample from month of May 2017 alone:
http://nextshark.com/china-reportedly-collect-millions-dna-samples-year-muslim-region/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/05/12/anti-muslim-sentiment-is-on-the-rise-in-china-we-found-that-the-internet-fuels-and-fights-this/?utm_term=.f746f48f1b74
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4443586/China-bans-extreme-Islamic-baby-names-Muslims.html
At some point China will have to contend with the greatest threat facing the world - Radical Islam. Even a subservient Pakistan wouldnt be able to stop the upsurge in anti-Chinese sentiment in the backdrop of this growing anti-Islamic crackdown.
CPEC would add a new dimension to this war between Communist China and radical Islam i.e. Colonialism
Pakistani news media and columnists have already started uttering the 'C' word. The New East India Company is a recurring theme on the Pakistani neck of social media.
CPEC may as well stand for China's Pakistan Exploitation Company.
India can and should exploit this fault line. As one Pakistani acquaintance once said to me "To us our religion is the only thing. Everything else is a distant second". That sentiment explains all of Pakistan's misfortune. All of it.
And it is a sentiment which China has failed to account for in its carefully laid out strategy.
As Pakistan (in its blind hatred of India) turns a blind eye to China's anti-Muslim crackdown, it loses what little credibility it holds within the larger Muslim Ummah.
C. American/European Perfidy
American/Western foreign policy is often "If they against us they are "terrorists" if they are with us they are "freedom fighters" - goes the old cold war era joke.
......To Be Continued
D. Pakistan's Economy
E. Pakistan's Military
F. Pakistan's Other Neighbors
G. India's Strategy - The Timing
H. What could go Wrong?
India will attack Pakistan. Pakistan knows it and can do little about it.
What is to be seen is the nature, intensity and final objectives of this assault.
We can analyze and speculate.
The planning for this assault seems to have started as soon as PM Modi took office. As most other Internet Hindus, including yours truly were agitated and angered by Modi Government's supposed hobnobbing with Pakistani interests, the Modi-Doval team was putting in motion a long term strategy to find a permanent solution to Pakistan. CPEC merely accelerated the timeline.
PM Modi's 'unplanned' surprise visit to Pakistan was particularly painful. "HOW COULD HE?" was the consensus sentiment across PM Modi's core supporters.
But Pakistan is a complex problem. If mere military solution worked, India would have exercised that option a long ago. Pakistan has since its inception, positioned itself as a leader of the global Muslim Ummah. Any assault on Pakistan would be perceived as an attack on Muslims.
PM Modi needed to make a public and demonstrable effort to make peace with Pakistan so that European bleeding heart rulers and Arab monarchies would be convinced that the assault on Pakistan was a last resort.
A. The Arab Variable:
The first part PM Modi's strategy aimed at decoupling Pakistan from the rest of the Muslim world.
The soft approach toward both Saudi Arabia and UAE in particular should been seen in this light. This approach involved 3 facets:
1. Leverage the peaceful, hardworking Indian diaspora to reassure these Arab nations that they can count on India to support them against their own extremist elements
2. Subtly play on the growing fears of Arab rulers that the jihadi fires funded and nurtured by them are approaching their own citadels and unless nipped in the Pakistani bud would consume them sooner rather than later
3. Build strong economic interdependence. According to Paki media India-UAE alone have signed MOUs worth $75 billion. The main feature of this relationship is UAE providing India with energy security by building an oil reserve on their soil while India provides UAE with food security by providing dedicated Agri zones.
The success of this Arab outreach can be gauged from the muted response vis-a-vis Kashmir from the larger Muslim Ummah particularly the Arab states.
B. China - The Wild Card
Perhaps the biggest variable in creating a lasting and permanent solution to the Pakistan problem is China. With America having given up on Pakistan, China remains India's biggest worry. Any overt support from China must be accounted for and neutralized.
It is safe to assume that China will do everything within its right and beyond to preserve its carefully nurtured asset. But the very factors that have driven Pakistan into China's arms can and will be used to unravel the Sino-Paki alliance.
Islamic insurgencies are sprouting across the globe. From Manila to Manchester and beyond. China has its own ticking Islamic time bomb - XinJiang. Chinese arrogance seems to think it can put the Jihadi Genie back in the bottle.
One must applaud the ambition of the Chinese leadership. With CPEC China is attempting to win a war in a region and against a foe where 3 Empires have failed.
Chinese strategists and leadership have come to the right conclusion i.e. Pakistan is a basket case and beyond redemption.
As argued here last year - http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2016/08/chinese-acquisition-and-balkanization.html - CPEC is an attempted takeover of Pakistan by the Chinese Communist party.
Leaks published by Pakistan's leading daily Dawn have essentially confirmed the arguments set forth in the aforementioned post.
If anything China's ambitions are far greater in scale and go far beyond establishing pockets of influence deep inside Pakistan. This is an attempted hollowing out of Pakistan - geographically, militarily and culturally.
Chinese calculations (at this point in time) seem to be spot on. A friendless Pakistan has its back to the wall. Former owners America and Saudi Arabia have decided not to renew the lease on their former b...h.
A nearly bankrupt Pakistan has started out on its annual pilgrimage with an even larger begging bowl.
Now add to these woes the never relenting march of radical Islam and a hostile arch enemy India which is finally getting its act together under PM Modi and you have Pakistan with few choices.
For China the choices are stark and binary:
A) Sit back and watch radical Islam over run Pakistan with India attacking it in the near future to forever neutralize China's number one leverage in the region
OR
B) Take a more proactive approach and turn Pakistan into an Islamic North Korea - dependent on the CCP for even the most rudimentary military and economic needs and in return ready to do China's bidding at the drop of a hat.
China wants to replicate in South Asia the same leverage it enjoys vis-a-vis North Korea i.e. have an ally with which hold the entire region to ransom.
But China is making a vital error in its carefully though out calculations.
Pakistan, it is often said, depends on the 3 As - Allah, Army and America.
While CPEC has co-opted the mealy mouth Army, Allah and America are likely to react with a vengeance to any Chinese encroachment on their long held turf.
Allah:
It is now almost a weekly occurrence - news reports trickling out of China's muslim majority state Xin Jiang describe the draconian measures China is taking to suppress (and potentially eradicate) every symbol of Islam.
What were occasional news reports have become routine. here's a sample from month of May 2017 alone:
http://nextshark.com/china-reportedly-collect-millions-dna-samples-year-muslim-region/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/05/12/anti-muslim-sentiment-is-on-the-rise-in-china-we-found-that-the-internet-fuels-and-fights-this/?utm_term=.f746f48f1b74
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4443586/China-bans-extreme-Islamic-baby-names-Muslims.html
At some point China will have to contend with the greatest threat facing the world - Radical Islam. Even a subservient Pakistan wouldnt be able to stop the upsurge in anti-Chinese sentiment in the backdrop of this growing anti-Islamic crackdown.
CPEC would add a new dimension to this war between Communist China and radical Islam i.e. Colonialism
Pakistani news media and columnists have already started uttering the 'C' word. The New East India Company is a recurring theme on the Pakistani neck of social media.
CPEC may as well stand for China's Pakistan Exploitation Company.
India can and should exploit this fault line. As one Pakistani acquaintance once said to me "To us our religion is the only thing. Everything else is a distant second". That sentiment explains all of Pakistan's misfortune. All of it.
And it is a sentiment which China has failed to account for in its carefully laid out strategy.
As Pakistan (in its blind hatred of India) turns a blind eye to China's anti-Muslim crackdown, it loses what little credibility it holds within the larger Muslim Ummah.
C. American/European Perfidy
American/Western foreign policy is often "If they against us they are "terrorists" if they are with us they are "freedom fighters" - goes the old cold war era joke.
......To Be Continued
D. Pakistan's Economy
E. Pakistan's Military
F. Pakistan's Other Neighbors
G. India's Strategy - The Timing
H. What could go Wrong?
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