At the outset let's be sure about one thing. Nothing PM Modi and his Govt. have done in 11 months suggest a sub par performance.
But there's a right way to do things, a wrong way and an effective way. BJP is missing out on the politically effective way to govern.
What follows in this post is an attempt to explain where things are going wrong and how to correct them and the consequences of continuing with the current strategy.
Consider the following scenario:
PM Modi wins the LAB battle and launches a series of infrastructure projects across Power, water and transportation sectors. These projects are then attacked at local levels with stay orders issued by local judiciary. Resulting delays cause cost overruns and more importantly a wishy-washy implementation record.
May 2018: A unifying opposition gangs up against the BJP and questions BJP's track record. Priyanka enters the arena as either Congress' great white hope or as the second in command to her brother.
Priyanka and Congress offer to concede PM's post to a third front candidate to defeat 'communal' BJP. This announcement energizes the opposition and unites minority vote behind a unified Congress party.
2019 results in a hung parliment. BJP horse trades to compile a coalition at the Center.
Resentful partners like the Sena and Akalis demand their pound of flesh. PM Modi has to work with one hand tied behind his back.
Govt. limps along and in 2024 (or before) ushers in a Priyanka led UPA 3.
To avoid this scenario, PM Modi's linear approach to governance needs to continue. But with an important alteration. Introduce a Plan B.
Purely anecdotal evidence suggests a growing resentment towards the BJP stemming primarily from rising prices. But most inflation statistics suggest a significant drop in inflation rate under NDA. So what explains the simmering anger.
Ashok (a rickshaw driver I spoke to) and his wife (a maid) earn Rs. 15-20,000 per month.
Under UPA they struggled to make ends meet with inflation hovering around 9%. Though the inflation rate has dropped it is still at 5%.
With no real opportunity to increase their respective incomes, the Ashok household continues to reel under effects of UPA's criminal policies.
Moreover, with global oil prices crashing, Ashok expects a break across the board. But where the govt. has reduced diesel and gas prices, they have raised fares on local transportation.
The cummalative impact of these balancing acts is a largely dissatisfied voter base.
BJP must realize that they are not entirely pitted against Sonia's UPA. They are instead being measured against their performance in Gujarat under then CM Modi and the expectations they engendered during the election campaign for LS 2014.
PM Modi has adopted his tried and test strategies from Gujarat. But Gujarat was more or less a 'controlled' environment. Delhi on the other hand is a quagmire of conflicting and competing (entrenched) interest groups.
PM Modi is up against the following constraints:
1. Compressed Time lines
- BJP needs to deliver by Dec 2017 so as to allow effects of delivered services to be imbibed by voters in the run up to the 2019 elections
2. Compromised leaders within BJP
- These individuals will prevent PM Modi from going after Sonia, so as to avoid a backlash that could paralyze governance
3. A Uniting Opposition
- Unification of the Janta parivar is only the first pointer of what is to come in the months/years ahead. More parties are likely to unite against the Modi Juggernaut
4. Priyanka
- Despite Pappu's recent flourish, his natural flaws are likely to reemerge. Few more defeats over the next 2-3 years will make Priyanka the presumptive favorite to take over the Congress.
5. Judiciary and Media
- PM Modi threatens the cosy relationship that has existed between various players within Sonia's carefully cultivated ecosystem. PM Modi can expect judicial challenges to his ambitious development plans. With media turning these challenges into World War 3 for the Modi Govt.
PLAN B:
Consider the following news story:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/Only-12-potential-of-Maharashtras-70000-small-dams-used/articleshow/46951498.cms
Only 12% of Maharashtra's 70K small dams are being used, largely due to government apathy and lack of proper funding.
These small dams have been approved with all the necessary clearances granted by previous UPA governments.
It is likely this scenario is not restricted to Maharashtra alone. Several other states may be struggling with unfinished and underutilized irrigation projects.
BJP govts at the center and state levels need to simultaneously work toward completing these projects.
The following advantages ensue:
1. Projects can be implemented by 2018
- As individual projects are completed, political mileage will accrue well ahead of the Dec 2017 timeline
2. Legal challenges
- With projects cleared and approved by previous regimes, political and legal challenges should be limited and manageable. This includes land acquisition.
3. Contrast between BJP and non-BJP govts.
- By implementing projects proposed or started by previous govts, BJP can demonstrate how other parties promise but only BJP delivers. Plan B allows an apples-to-apples comparison across the political spectrum
Without a Plan B, BJP risks going back to voters with a checkered track record and an energized opposition ready to topple BJP by all means necessary.
But there's a right way to do things, a wrong way and an effective way. BJP is missing out on the politically effective way to govern.
What follows in this post is an attempt to explain where things are going wrong and how to correct them and the consequences of continuing with the current strategy.
Consider the following scenario:
PM Modi wins the LAB battle and launches a series of infrastructure projects across Power, water and transportation sectors. These projects are then attacked at local levels with stay orders issued by local judiciary. Resulting delays cause cost overruns and more importantly a wishy-washy implementation record.
May 2018: A unifying opposition gangs up against the BJP and questions BJP's track record. Priyanka enters the arena as either Congress' great white hope or as the second in command to her brother.
Priyanka and Congress offer to concede PM's post to a third front candidate to defeat 'communal' BJP. This announcement energizes the opposition and unites minority vote behind a unified Congress party.
2019 results in a hung parliment. BJP horse trades to compile a coalition at the Center.
Resentful partners like the Sena and Akalis demand their pound of flesh. PM Modi has to work with one hand tied behind his back.
Govt. limps along and in 2024 (or before) ushers in a Priyanka led UPA 3.
To avoid this scenario, PM Modi's linear approach to governance needs to continue. But with an important alteration. Introduce a Plan B.
Purely anecdotal evidence suggests a growing resentment towards the BJP stemming primarily from rising prices. But most inflation statistics suggest a significant drop in inflation rate under NDA. So what explains the simmering anger.
Ashok (a rickshaw driver I spoke to) and his wife (a maid) earn Rs. 15-20,000 per month.
Under UPA they struggled to make ends meet with inflation hovering around 9%. Though the inflation rate has dropped it is still at 5%.
With no real opportunity to increase their respective incomes, the Ashok household continues to reel under effects of UPA's criminal policies.
Moreover, with global oil prices crashing, Ashok expects a break across the board. But where the govt. has reduced diesel and gas prices, they have raised fares on local transportation.
The cummalative impact of these balancing acts is a largely dissatisfied voter base.
BJP must realize that they are not entirely pitted against Sonia's UPA. They are instead being measured against their performance in Gujarat under then CM Modi and the expectations they engendered during the election campaign for LS 2014.
PM Modi has adopted his tried and test strategies from Gujarat. But Gujarat was more or less a 'controlled' environment. Delhi on the other hand is a quagmire of conflicting and competing (entrenched) interest groups.
PM Modi is up against the following constraints:
1. Compressed Time lines
- BJP needs to deliver by Dec 2017 so as to allow effects of delivered services to be imbibed by voters in the run up to the 2019 elections
2. Compromised leaders within BJP
- These individuals will prevent PM Modi from going after Sonia, so as to avoid a backlash that could paralyze governance
3. A Uniting Opposition
- Unification of the Janta parivar is only the first pointer of what is to come in the months/years ahead. More parties are likely to unite against the Modi Juggernaut
4. Priyanka
- Despite Pappu's recent flourish, his natural flaws are likely to reemerge. Few more defeats over the next 2-3 years will make Priyanka the presumptive favorite to take over the Congress.
5. Judiciary and Media
- PM Modi threatens the cosy relationship that has existed between various players within Sonia's carefully cultivated ecosystem. PM Modi can expect judicial challenges to his ambitious development plans. With media turning these challenges into World War 3 for the Modi Govt.
PLAN B:
Consider the following news story:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/Only-12-potential-of-Maharashtras-70000-small-dams-used/articleshow/46951498.cms
Only 12% of Maharashtra's 70K small dams are being used, largely due to government apathy and lack of proper funding.
These small dams have been approved with all the necessary clearances granted by previous UPA governments.
It is likely this scenario is not restricted to Maharashtra alone. Several other states may be struggling with unfinished and underutilized irrigation projects.
BJP govts at the center and state levels need to simultaneously work toward completing these projects.
The following advantages ensue:
1. Projects can be implemented by 2018
- As individual projects are completed, political mileage will accrue well ahead of the Dec 2017 timeline
2. Legal challenges
- With projects cleared and approved by previous regimes, political and legal challenges should be limited and manageable. This includes land acquisition.
3. Contrast between BJP and non-BJP govts.
- By implementing projects proposed or started by previous govts, BJP can demonstrate how other parties promise but only BJP delivers. Plan B allows an apples-to-apples comparison across the political spectrum
Without a Plan B, BJP risks going back to voters with a checkered track record and an energized opposition ready to topple BJP by all means necessary.
