Tuesday, February 5, 2019

Swarm Warfare: BJP's Strategy for 2019

Swarm Warfare:  a battlefield tactic designed to maximize target saturation, and thereby overwhelm or saturate the defenses of the principal target or objective. 

For over a year now, yours truly has wondered where the hell was BJP heading vis-a-vis its campaign for 2019.  

Nothing seemed to fit.  NDA's lackadaisical attitude on corruption cases, the escape of Mallya and Co, zero progress on RJB movement....and BJP was seemingly stumbling into India's most important battle since Panipat. 

 But as they say - a week is a long time in politics.  

BJP's strategy for 2019 can be summed up in two words:  Swarm Warfare. 

What was perceived by many (me included) as a hands off, soft approach on the part of PM Modi, his govt and his party was instead a subtle 3 part strategy.  

1.  Allow the opposition enough room to spend its ammo and reveal its cards 
2. Keep BJP's own powder dry so as to use it at the opportune moment 
3. Swarm Warfare (more on that later) 

A perfect example of this strategy is the manner in which BJP has resisted the temptation to go after Robert Vadra.  Keeping his cases on a slow, back burner, to be brought to the fore front when a certain Priyanka Vadra steps into the ring. 

It is no coincidence that Deepak Talwar and Rajiv Saxena were  picked up and brought to India 3 months before elections.  This was clearly set up by Indian intelligence.  Notice how neither were allowed to appeal in Dubai courts. 

Now for the Swarm warfare. 

For several weeks now we have witnessed punch and counter punch.  BJP declares 10% reservation, Congress offers universal basic income, BJP counters with Rs. 6000 support.  That is to be expected in election season.  But in addition BJP is unleashing a strike a day.  Ground, Air, Ocean.  

Mamta Sharada scam one day, Vadra ED summons the next, Akhilesh with Ram sevak massacre the third, the news keeps rolling in.  


Just a week back, Karnataka was put in play.  Amateur pundits thought it was another attempt at grabbing the govt.  It was much more than that.  It forced Congress to spend a few crores from its coffers and should prevent it from gathering a sizeable chunk of much needed election funds from this cash rich state. 



As I type this post, Milind Deora has opened a new front in Mumbai, very subtly and back handedly bringing into focus  Congress' dynasty problem.  On the very day Priyanka arrives to set up shop at AICCI's head quarters. 

The idea seems to be to keep Congress and other components of the MGB busy on a daily basis and most importantly in a reactive mode.

This swarm warfare achieves several objectives: 

1. Allows BJP to set the agenda both at a Macro and a local micro level:  The targeting of Mamta, CBN, AY, etc. in their pocket boroughs should insulate BJP against local issues overpowering PM Modi's national campaign 

2. Keeps Opposition in a reactive mode:  Rafale, intolerance, etc. have already lost their sting.  Public is tired of these issues and any doubts engendered by Pappu's blitzkrieg have evaporated, given the clean chit from both the SC and the Indian Air force.  
Congress and MGB in general will find it hard to identify and ride any real issue - either local or national - to topple PM Modi's national campaign. 

3. Tire out the opposition:  Pappu now has to remember more than Rafale.  Moreover, with each swarm attack, UPA's impossible proposition of providing a strong viable govt. falls further down the abyss of public disgust and skepticism.

What should worry UPappuA is that BJP has only just begun.  This strategy seems to have been in the works for several years now. 

Abhi picture baaki hai :-)