NaMo's Kavach Kundali

Karna's kavach Kundali were a boon given to him by his father.  As long as they remained on his person they made him indestructible.  No weapon could harm him.  His bigheartedness was exploited to steal them from him and make him mortal.  

This story comes to mind as I watch PM Modi's first real political challenge - The emerging chinks in his Kavach Kundali.  

NaMo's greatest political asset - his political Kavach Kundali - is his personal integrity.  As long as he's perceived as being honest and upright and immune to the spoils of political power he remains out of reach of any political weapon - legitimate or illegitimate.  Fair or unfair.  

But the day this armor is pierced he becomes politically mortal.  'Suit Boot ki Sarkar', 'Rafale', '30,000 crore' were all designed to rupture PM's kavach kundali and separate him from his greatest asset. 

Some may argue that this wont happen, cant happen.  That people are smart enough to detect this conspiracy.  But that is not the intention of Sonia's ecosystem.  The objective is to engender enough doubt in people's minds to demoralize BJP's support base and cause a rethink within the 'floating' vote that remains decisive in any contest. 

With 2019 emerging as a 'kante ki takkar', a fight to political death, this doubt, could be enough to sway 2-3% of the vote.  Enough in 30-40 seats to push BJP down to that 220 seats mark where a Congress coalition becomes easier and more viable than a NaMo led NDA formation. 

As suggested here - https://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2015/07/about-time-gloves-came-off-get-sonia-now.html  

PM should have gone after Sonia a lot earlier.  It would have preempted the 'Rafale' conspiracy.  With only 4 months left for polls it may be too late to adopt it now.  

What can he do now?  Play a T20 political match in the Court of People's Opinion (the only court that matters). 

Leak to the public all the evidence unearthed about the Vadra/2G/CWG/etc. scams.  

A media blitzkrieg using social media and NOT BJP's official sources. 

Let the question 'What the hell has the BJP govt. done?' fester for a few weeks and unleash a fresh set of evidence on an almost every daily basis.  

Drown the Congress in its own scam.  Surely such a simply strategy is worth a shot.

Benefits of a BJP Defeat

1. Mayawati is not a possible PM choice of the MGB.  My greatest fear was Maya winning a meaningful number of seats in MP and Chattisgarh and using these wins to bargain for 60 seats in the Hindi heartland making her an undeclared PM candidate of the MGB.  It was the one variable that gave me sleepless nights as explained here - https://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2018/07/countering-mayawati.html














With Pappu emerging as leader of the Main contender Maya is left behind and Pappu becomes the defacto choice of leader of MahaGhatbandhan (MGB)
- Even some BJP veterans are attributing Congress' win to Pappu's emergence a viable counter to NaMo 
- The victories (at time of writing) are very close in both MP and Rajasthan.  This is not the rout anti-BJP forces are celebrating.  

It is the best possible outcome for the BJP.

2. Maya, Mamta will become very upset
Congress' strong showing will mean both Maya and Mamta (and other PM contenders) would have to bury their PM ambitions.  This will not go down well with them.  Congress will be in no mood to form an alliance by playing 2nd or 3rd fiddle in key states.  There's no way Maya gets Congress to concede seats in MP/Rajasthan for accommodation in UP.  What would this to Maya's enthusiasm to join a grand alliance.  An alliance in which she gains nothing but both Pappu and Akhilesh (UP ke ladke) use her as a stepping stone to capture the thrones at center and state levels. 

This may open the space for BJP to suggest an alliance with Maya for accomodation at the state level.  If nothing else, BJP could set the cat amongst the pigeons by insuniating an alliance through strategic media leaks. 


3. BJP wont be complacent
Election management is a necessary, not a sufficient condition to win elections.  BJP has failed to connect the dots for their voters:  Eradication of corruption = Money for development.  Simple messaging trumps complex facts and figures. 

4. Turnout 
One of BJP's biggest weakness is the muted enthusiasm of its supporters.  A massive defeat for BJP would scare BJP's core supporters and even tier 2 and 3 supporters to come out in greater numbers. 

5. A real fear has gripped Hindus.  In the weeks and months ahead, this fear will start spreading like wild fire.  Moreover, as Muslims/Christians start celebrating BJP's defeat their anti-Hindu face will be unmasked.  This has the potential to not only trigger a counter Hindu-consolidation but also drive turnout come election day.  BJP must nurture and harness this fear by (for instance) making tangible progress on Ram Temple or education reforms. 

Countering Mayawati

Mayawati as PM candidate is the latest trial balloon floated by the strategists behind the MahaGathBandhan (MGB).  

And frankly, for the first time, I'm worried about BJP's 2019 chances.  

It is very difficult to attack a woman and a Dalit one at that.   One loose tongued slip up, by a BJP loud mouth will be run by MGB friendly channels on a loop through election day and beyond. 

BJP's old branding as a bania-brahmin party will be resurrected.  Game over. 

It is for this reason that BJP must take a proactive approach to burying Maya before she has a chance to gain her footing. 

There are 3 ways to do this (and neither involve a direct attack): 

1. Document and define Maya's track record as CM in terms of the work she did for Dalits and what little the Dalit community gained from it.  

2. Define Maya as Sonia's version i.e. corrupt to the core and one who gained power so her family would benefit and nothing game the way of aam Dalits. 

3. Portray Maya as Sonia's puppet.  Maya will be used as mascot and after election Congress will install a new puppet or harass Maya into becoming a puppet. 

One last point.  BJP must prepare a crack team to efficiently and expeditiously counter any slip-ups from within BJP or any misinformation that is created by the MGB dirty tricks department. 

Finally, allow BJP sympathisers to go after Maya's corrupt record.  AND have them attack (yes attack) BJP for not going after Maya and putting her behind bars. 

Make Maya as CM the focus and not Maya the woman or Maya the Dalit.

Why Is the Church Targeting PM Modi

It doesnt make sense.  Why on earth would the Catholic church target the PM?  It can only help BJP by consolidating Hindu vote behind them.  Increase Hindu turnout.

There are 2 possible reasons: 

1. Church is in cahoots with BJP (Impossible)
2. Church is hurting

 But the curtailed conversion agenda cannot alone explain the shear aggression and desperation exhibited by the Church. 

There's another reason for this last ditch effort to galvanize the Christian community.  

It is this:  PM's development agenda is providing the basic necessities to India's poor, reducing their dependence on non-state actors such as the conversion NGOs supported by the Church. 

Another 5 years of a Modi Govt. will not only destroy the conversion thrust but rob the church of fresh recruits. 

Given that most neo convert come from the ranks of the poorest of the poor, this market will likely disappear by 2024. 

Though China is seeing a rapid growth in Christians after experiencing economic growth, India is different.  Under Communism, Chinese were left with a spiritual vacuum.  One that attracted Christianity as a natural occupant.  

With its 10,000 year old spiritual tradition, India has no such handicap.  Even the most downtrodden Hindus will remain within their religion if their basic needs are met. 

It is this dual threat that has made the Church hit the panic button. 

The Cardinal's letter is only the first salvo in a battle that has just begun.  International spotlight is just round the corner.  Surely the strategy was devised well in advance.  The Church is both ruthless and extraordinarily intelligent not to enter this battle with a well devised plan to stop the NaMo juggernaut. 

Benami Property - Demonitization 2.0

Demonitization was an unparalleled success.  Because it was seen by the aam aadmi as a bold step with which to defeat India's high and mighty.  Watching everyone from Mulayam to Raj Thackeray to Mamata and ofcourse Sonia, squirm over the destruction of their ill gotten wealth was drug like no other - A drug Indians had never experienced. 

But DeMo is increasingly becoming a non-issue or worse turning against the PM.  Why is that?  

It is seen as a sacrifice asked of and made by India's aam aadmi while little has been done to hurt the big cats - the Sonias/Niravs/Mallyas of the world. 

The halo effect generated by DeMo can be retrieved and deployed in 2019 if PM Modi takes the step he has been promising but hasnt yet delivered - Going after Benami Properties. 

Some have argued that another DeMo like measure would anger and frustrate Indians and hurt BJP's chances in 2019. 

But it is a risk worth taking.  The policy could be fenced in so that its impact on the aam aadmi can be restricted.  As it is the middle and lower middle classes do not own benami real estate. 

Given that DeMo has brought a wide swath of Indians under the tax umbrella, it should be relatively simple to match property records with declared income to quickly identify those who could be owning a property beyond their known sources of income. 

Further more, only properties beyond a certain threshold could be targeted - say greater than Rs. 1 Cr. 

These measures would exclude 95% of Indians.  Watching the high and mighty squirm and sweat as their properties are auctioned off would electrify the electorate and bring back corruption as a central issue. 

Further more, property prices would drop allowing a larger pool of Indians to own homes.  The rising demand would boost the wider economy and add anywhere from 0.2-0.5% to the growth rate. 

It is a near perfect weapon with which to win 2019.  But will the PM bite the bullet?

How to Break Opposition Unity

As I have time and again emphasized, a victory for Congress is keeping BJP to 220 seats.  And the best way to ensure this outcome is for the opposition to unite. 

As I right this a Maha Gatbandhan (MGB) seems like a reach.  But  a MGB is not the only option for opposition unity.  

What I fear most are several local alliances with Congress as the common binding force which gives up in states where it is weaker whilst retaining primacy in its strongholds. 

Local contradictions (Mamta vs. Left, Mulayam vs. Maya, etc.) may force a multi-cornered fight in key states but if Congress can create enough local alliances it could bring BJP down to 220 seats. 

What follows are a few ideas on how to preempt any major alliances for opposition unity. 

1. Congress Mukt Bharat - As a Coalition Buster

Much as congress men and women have come to view the family as the only glue that will hold the party together, regional parties view the Congress the essential glue to piece and hold together an anti-BJP coalition.  With a series of defeats Congress has presented, ambitious local satraps with a tantalizing option - What if Congress Mukt Bharat does come to fruition, can one of them stake claim to helm a new UPA?  

Will a depleted Congress then support a regional leader for PM just to keep the BJP out?  

BJP must promote this angle.  The likes of Mamta, Maya and Mulayam and even Nitish would find such a scenario irresistible. 

BJP's 'go-slow' strategy on 2g scam should be seen in this light.  By putting opposition fears of legal retribution to rest, BJP has established the first precondition to creating this race for supremacy. 

But this strategy can only work if it is carefully calibrated.  In run up to 2004, a similarly depleted Congress was able to give up its claim to PMship which attracted eager PM contenders to the UPA umbrella and the rest is history. 

The idea should be to prevent a coalition from taking shape in the first place. 

Also, not all regional leaders will buy into this strategy.  Some may see Congress as a necessary evil. But even if a few buy into this strategy it would put one more nail in that coalition coffin. 

2. Exposing pro-Jihadi political fronts 

From Owaisi to Akmal most purely Muslim political outfits seem to have a link to global jihadi networks.  Either directly or indirectly through underworld or social connections.  

Congress will need to tie up with these outfit so as to keep minority votes from getting divided.  As a preemptive strike, expose these jihadi linkages and if UPA or its component parties try to tie up with them, use that as one strategy to consolidate Hindu votes.

3. Blasting Benamis

Go after Benami properties and announce elections in the middle of the effort - ensure that those owning legitimate properties arent targeted.  This can be done by using Aadhar data to match against property ownership data.  The process should start around Oct 2018 or earlier.  This act of taking action against massive corruption will remain  unfinished but the measure will garner massive support.  Much like Demonitization, such measures get massive support from the voting segments. 

A few prominent politicians will get ensnared in this web - and that would be the icing on the cake. 





4. Corruption free Mai Baap 

BJP has delivered on its biggest promise - Corruption free Mai Baap - a strategy that has worked wonderfully for BJP in Gujarat -  http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2011/06/understanding-indian-electorate.html 

Homes for poor, bank accounts, Jan Dhan, direct deposit and several such programs are part of this Mai-Baap approach.  An approach sans corruption. 

In terms of policy it is no different from what Congress has offered but the differentiation lies in the corruption-free implementation BJP has delivered. 

BJP must package this achievement with several features 
a) Corruption free
b) Delivered by a Hindu ruler 
c) Direct to people (i.e. eliminating the middle i.e. corrupt men)
d) 5 years of corruption free delivery Vs. 70 years of corruption ridden mess 

To break the coalition BJP must do something they did in 2014 i.e. connect directly with the voter.  So that a large section of (for example) Yadavs and Dalits vote for BJP/NaMo and not their respective caste brethren. 

5. Compare to Congress but more importantly how does it compare to what the benchmark BJP set for itself 

6. War on maoists is on the winning track 

7. Play on the fear most Indians feel - if Congress comes back they will loot all the good work done in past 4 years


 


 
4.The Message:  Foundation is ready, building is under construction