1. Mayawati is not a possible PM choice of the MGB. My greatest fear was Maya winning a meaningful number of seats in MP and Chattisgarh and using these wins to bargain for 60 seats in the Hindi heartland making her an undeclared PM candidate of the MGB. It was the one variable that gave me sleepless nights as explained here - https://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2018/07/countering-mayawati.html
With Pappu emerging as leader of the Main contender Maya is left behind and Pappu becomes the defacto choice of leader of MahaGhatbandhan (MGB)
- Even some BJP veterans are attributing Congress' win to Pappu's emergence a viable counter to NaMo
- The victories (at time of writing) are very close in both MP and Rajasthan. This is not the rout anti-BJP forces are celebrating.
It is the best possible outcome for the BJP.
2. Maya, Mamta will become very upset
Congress' strong showing will mean both Maya and Mamta (and other PM contenders) would have to bury their PM ambitions. This will not go down well with them. Congress will be in no mood to form an alliance by playing 2nd or 3rd fiddle in key states. There's no way Maya gets Congress to concede seats in MP/Rajasthan for accommodation in UP. What would this to Maya's enthusiasm to join a grand alliance. An alliance in which she gains nothing but both Pappu and Akhilesh (UP ke ladke) use her as a stepping stone to capture the thrones at center and state levels.
This may open the space for BJP to suggest an alliance with Maya for accomodation at the state level. If nothing else, BJP could set the cat amongst the pigeons by insuniating an alliance through strategic media leaks.
3. BJP wont be complacent
Election management is a necessary, not a sufficient condition to win elections. BJP has failed to connect the dots for their voters: Eradication of corruption = Money for development. Simple messaging trumps complex facts and figures.
4. Turnout
One of BJP's biggest weakness is the muted enthusiasm of its supporters. A massive defeat for BJP would scare BJP's core supporters and even tier 2 and 3 supporters to come out in greater numbers.
5. A real fear has gripped Hindus. In the weeks and months ahead, this fear will start spreading like wild fire. Moreover, as Muslims/Christians start celebrating BJP's defeat their anti-Hindu face will be unmasked. This has the potential to not only trigger a counter Hindu-consolidation but also drive turnout come election day. BJP must nurture and harness this fear by (for instance) making tangible progress on Ram Temple or education reforms.
With Pappu emerging as leader of the Main contender Maya is left behind and Pappu becomes the defacto choice of leader of MahaGhatbandhan (MGB)
- Even some BJP veterans are attributing Congress' win to Pappu's emergence a viable counter to NaMo
- The victories (at time of writing) are very close in both MP and Rajasthan. This is not the rout anti-BJP forces are celebrating.
It is the best possible outcome for the BJP.
2. Maya, Mamta will become very upset
Congress' strong showing will mean both Maya and Mamta (and other PM contenders) would have to bury their PM ambitions. This will not go down well with them. Congress will be in no mood to form an alliance by playing 2nd or 3rd fiddle in key states. There's no way Maya gets Congress to concede seats in MP/Rajasthan for accommodation in UP. What would this to Maya's enthusiasm to join a grand alliance. An alliance in which she gains nothing but both Pappu and Akhilesh (UP ke ladke) use her as a stepping stone to capture the thrones at center and state levels.
This may open the space for BJP to suggest an alliance with Maya for accomodation at the state level. If nothing else, BJP could set the cat amongst the pigeons by insuniating an alliance through strategic media leaks.
3. BJP wont be complacent
Election management is a necessary, not a sufficient condition to win elections. BJP has failed to connect the dots for their voters: Eradication of corruption = Money for development. Simple messaging trumps complex facts and figures.
4. Turnout
One of BJP's biggest weakness is the muted enthusiasm of its supporters. A massive defeat for BJP would scare BJP's core supporters and even tier 2 and 3 supporters to come out in greater numbers.
5. A real fear has gripped Hindus. In the weeks and months ahead, this fear will start spreading like wild fire. Moreover, as Muslims/Christians start celebrating BJP's defeat their anti-Hindu face will be unmasked. This has the potential to not only trigger a counter Hindu-consolidation but also drive turnout come election day. BJP must nurture and harness this fear by (for instance) making tangible progress on Ram Temple or education reforms.
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