JNU and the First Muslim PM of India

Outrage, anger, rage.....a deep rooted desire to kicking some anti-Indian ass.  As the anti-national fired raged at JNU most commentators got caught up in the issue itself.  But none seem to have noticed the elephant in the room.

From calling for independence for Kashmir, the JNU types have graduated to demanding 'azadi' for West Bengal and Kerala.  Kerala???  When did this happen?

Another question kept cropping up.  How is it that a motley crew of anti-nationals manage to drump up so much heat and dust?  Granted Indian media is in bed with every anti-Indian force on earth, but given that a BJP govt with control over Delhi Police controls the capital and JNU, where did this audacity come from?

A simple variable explains the anti-national storm witnessed at JNU and that is Demographic Change.

By almost every independent estimate, most urban centers across India will have close to 30% Muslims within the next 15 years.

Ghettoisation of Muslims will not end anytime soon.  With such a concentrated presence, Muslims could influence close to 200-250 seats by 2030.

That kind of leverage will most certainly raise the demand for a Muslim PM.

Given these emerging trends, it is likely that the first Muslim PM of India is currently in his twenties.

Though most BJP supporters have rejoiced over the emergence of Owaisi brothers as they cut into 'sickular' votes, the long term trend their go-it-alone strategy insinuates should worry every Indian.

When yours truly first suggested the inevitability of an 'Islamic Republic of India', many a reader mocked at such a possibility.  Given the new found aggression of Muslim politicians and their brethren the real miscalculation may be in suggesting that such a reality will be upon us around the mid-century mark.

It is in fact likely to happen between 2030 and 2040.

As West Bengal and Kerala are showing us, Muslim population doesnt need to cross the 50% or even 40% mark.  30% seems to be the magic tipping point.  With tactical, enmasse voting 30% vote bank gives every politician a massive head start over his/her rivals.

By 2025 Indian politicians will offer soft Sharia to Muslim majority areas.  By 2029 these areas may be carved out as separate states and by 2040 a Muslim PM may be the only way to keep India as a single, undivided nation state.

Demographics influence destiny like few other variables do.  With human population exploding from 2 Billion to 7.5 Billion in less than a 100 years, demographic invasion as a weapon is only a recent phenomenon.

And India is not the only country facing this time bomb.  For instance, 50% of student is state run schools in Brussels are Muslim.

If Islam achieves its green crescent by 2050, its world domination is a certainty.  Two counter forces may trip this triumphant march.

1. Climate Change
2. China

As the tiny island state of Maldives has shown us, entire countries could be whipped out of existence as Climate change becomes irreversible.  Densely populated cities such as Miami are facing a catastrophe within the next decade with rising sea levels poised to destroy everything from the sewage system to fresh water acquifiers.

Islam's triumph may represent a pyrrihic victory at best.  With uneducated and unskilled global population unable to counter effects of climate change leading to massive displacement, forced migration and economic hardship.

China is rapidly converting to Christianity.  Even the most conservative estimates peg Chinese Christians at 100 million with some estimates suggesting a 300 million mark.

China understands the threat Islam poses to its largest province - XinJiang.  It has tried to win peace by making Pakistan a client state, heavily dependent on Chinese economic and military largessee to survive against a rising India.

But if India comes under Muslim rule, this enemosity will lose its raison d'etre and Pakistan and India could easily join hands to forment trouble in XinJiang to rescue their Muslim brethren.

With such a possibility within a foreseeable horizon, China could do play a double game to fragment Pakistan if it can simultaneously weaken India.

With such scenarios not unthinkable, PM Modi remains India's only hope - If and only If he wins a second term.

The foundation he has begun installing will take time to bear fruit.  A strong, economically and militarily strong India could force an alteration of International borders and slow down the rising Islamic tide.

PM Modi is our last hope.  Hope his followers realize that.

The Impotence of Rajdeep and his Tribe

"You damn reactionary, uncivilized, uncouth, primitive, dehati, Hindus".  "Grow Up".  "And btw, yes I'm an anti-national.  Deal with it".

Liberals have a shocking record of railing at Hindus and all those who they consider to be beneath them. There's a subtle class warfare at work here.  If you werent born into or educated at the right institution you're instantly considered an outcast.  

There're ways to break into this 'elite' club of liberals.  Abuse all things Hindu and now (post NaMo taking over as PM) all things Indian.

A similar dynamic is at play in the West with Christianity and America the 'great satan'.  

Bill Maher the American satirist has, over the past 4-5 years, taken his fellow liberals to task on one glaring liberal hypocrisy:  The singular absence of even a rudimentary critique of Islam or Islamism.

This peculiar combination of hatred for all things Hindu and love for all things Muslim is particularly amplified in India.

Media coverage is saturated with calls for Hindus to be tolerant and reformist and 'modern' but not a word is mentioned asking for reform in Islam which is increasingly slipping toward a sharia controlled 7th century existence.

Most commentators are well aware of this contradiction.  But what explains it?

Fear induced Impotence.

Abusing Hindus generates little or no real backlash.  Outrage on social media or trolls being trolls is hardly the monster it is made out to be.

The real monster is when a mention in an exam paper can get your arm chopped off or a cartoon generates a terror attack.  

So how do you appear 'rebellious' without risking life and limb?  How do you thump your chest and claim you're fighting for liberal principles?  How do you feign outrage at the shrinking liberal space at your next black tie affair?

You attack ideologies whose followers will tolerate your nonsense.

But the real monsters? You leave them alone.  Infact you go a step further and claim that said monster doesnt exist.

Every liberal from Rajdeep to Mrs. Akshay Kumar have written about the great tolerant India without mentioning Kamlesh Tiwari.  The same Kamlesh Tiwari who triggered a series of demonstrations and riots across India by suggesting that Prophet Mohd. was gay.

Given their long standing support for gay rights and atheism, defending Kamlesh Tiwari should have been a natural, almost instinctive liberal response.  But his incarceration has elicited no such chest thumping.  No cries in defense of his 'freedom of expression'.

But why pile on liberals alone, some may argue few right wing Hindus are willing to grab this bull by the horns.

There's a difference and it is this: Hindu Right wingers dont go around calling themselves 'anti-national', or tolerating calls for destruction of India just so they can claim to be courageous or progressive or....secular.

Communism - the Godless Islam?

What horrified Indians have witnessed at JNU over the past week is a common phenomenon across Democratic nations around the world.  The only difference being the blatant anti-nationalism displayed by students at JNU.

Indians are finally coming face to face with something right wingers have known for decades.  Communists, liberals and other lefties are in bed with Jihadis.

On the surface this seems like an unlikely alliance.  Communism abhors God and religion.  The founding fathers have gone to great extent to question God and all things related to the very concept of God.

In all fairness, Communists have been equal opportunity offenders, displaying the same contempt for all religions.

But in India they have always followed a policy of appeasing Islamists and opposing Hindus.  And since the demise of Communism, Communists have turned on America and the West with same duplicity and venom, aligning themselves with Islamists at every opportunity.

How can two ideologies so diametrically opposed coexist and become codependent.

The superficial explanation is 'enemy's enemy is a friend'.  But that explanation ignores a startling similarity between the two doctrines.

Communist nations were famous for destroying native cultures.  Music, culture, movies were severely curtailed to the point where great nations with rich cultural traditions were turned into dry, gray colorless, morbid versions of their former selves.

Russia, China, Cuba....you name the country where communism took root and I'll show you a desolate, wicked place where life became a dry, living hell.

The ruling elite were exceptions to this reality.  They enjoyed holidays at sequestered locations where wine, women and song flowed freely.

Many a Communist leader harbored a large harem of his own.  A flavor of this hypocrisy can be witnessed within the ranks of India's own Maoist movements.  Where women are treated as concubines and exploitation of the poor by the ruling elite is a common practice.

Communism also believes that one book, one doctrine trumps all.  Nationalism is a four letter word and ideology transcends all national and cultural boundaries.

Now replace the words Communism and Communists with Islam and Muslims and notice how the concepts are interchangeable.

Apart from Allah, Communism and Islam are identical.

It should not come as a surprise that they have now found a common cause - the defeat of democratic, free societies.  In America it is America democracy and Christianity and in India it is Indianess and Hinduism.

There's a silver lining to the ominous cloud.  Communism was defeated largely due to its own innate contradictions.  Communism was unnatural, inhuman and alien to basic human nature.

Islam is heading for the same fate.  No religion/doctrine that restricts the human spirit and forces it into a straight jacket can survive forever, no matter how lethal its contemporary appeal may appear at a given moment in history.

Mumbai Vs. Bombay

Mumbai is a city...but Bombay is a feeling. 

Unless you have lived in a cave for the past decade, this meme has shown up in your social sphere at regular intervals.  On the surface it seems like a wish by a diminishing minority desperate to retain that last semblance of their last remaining identity within a city they have called home.

Personally, I have grown up with mixed feelings vis-a-vis this issue.  "What's in a name?" you may argue, but in India a great deal.

The support for the two names stems from two fundamental sources.

Mumbai:  Supported by the native sons typically Maharashtrians and Gujaratis.  Both languages use Mumbai and not Bombay in their lexicon.

Bombay:  All those opposed to Shiv Sena along with communities who consider themselves the 'original' residents of this great city.

Over the years I have personally veered towards 'Mumbai'.  And their's a very important reason for that.

Dig deeper into the antecedents of those passionately devoted to 'Bombay' and 9 times out of 10 you will encounter an individual who secretly wishes India was still under British rule.

The argument often thrown by Bombayites at Mumbaikars runs along these lines:

"We turned this fishing village into the glorious city it is today".

Not surprisingly this is precisely the argument put forth first by Mughal loving Pakistanis and British loving Indians vis-a-vis India as a whole.

It is their firm belief that Indians/Hindus were a barbaric tribe, who were saved by their respective progenitors i.e. Mughals and the British.

A localized version of this argument is peddled with Mumbai. 

Surely, it has taken a collective effort to build Bombay into the city it is today.

But this argument ignores the yeoman's service rendered to Mumbai and Maharashtra by the local population and by Shiv Sena in fighting and destroying leftist unions who were poised to turn Mumbai into a second Kolkotta.

But the Bombay mindset of 'British Indians' fails to acknowledge this socio-political ecosystem which allowed Mumbai to thrive.  Instead it harbors a not so subtle 'Brown Sahib' syndrome.

This syndrome stems from a deep rooted inferiority complex - Indians are inferior to outsiders.  Primarily to the great British who gave us civilization and turned us into a civilized people.

It is for this reason that key princely states such as Goa and Hyderabad refused to join the Indian union.  

It is not coincidence that these communities are greatly under represented in both India's freedom struggle and in the Indian armed forces.

It was the absence of these communities from cities such as Chennai and Bengaluru which allowed the renaming of those great cities to go through without a whimper or a protest.

In the 21st century there should be no room for anti-British sentiments.  'Mumbai' is not about hating the British.  But 'Bombay' is most certainly about self-hate.

The eradication of this self-loathing is key to our rise as a people willing to join the world community as equals.

Bombay represents an inferiority complex, Mumbai serves as an anthem for a resurgent India.

Tackling Pakistan - Part 2: A Permanent Solution

What do 1948, 1965, 1971, 1999 have in common?  On each of those occasions India conclusively defeated Pakistan on the battle field, in some instances captured Pakistani territory and ended up surrendering hard won victories for little more than paper assurances like the Simla Agreement.

Surely Indian leadership should shoulder some of the blame but one cannot ignore the fact that world powers played their part in allowing Pakistan to get away with ....well....murder.

Any future conflict with Pakistan, limited or otherwise, must be a decisive one.  India should aim to destroy Pakistan once and for all.

China, USA, Russia in that order do not want Pakistan be permanently destroyed.  In the big power game Pakistan's remarkable geographic position (a shared border with or proximity to) 2 of the 3 big powers and Iran and the middle east, represents a unique opportunity.  Control Pakistan and you can gain leverage over a 3rd of the global population and two of the biggest markets.

Throughout those earlier conflicts India has been militarily and economically dependent on world powers.  One big factor in preventing India from opening additional fronts during the 1999 Kargil conflict was the not so subtle pressure exerted by CEOs of major MNCs.

India's economy was (and continues to be) vulnerable to long term damage inflicted by a prolonged conflict with a nuclear neighbor.  FDI would disappear and remain out of reach if mission critical back office operations of firms such as GE and Citibank were under threat of military conflict.

More importantly, with India importing almost all key military hardware, foreign powers could easily cripple India's war effort by delaying (if not withholding) delivery of critical spares for fighter jets, submarines, howitzer guns, etc.

Clearly these constraints played an important role in forcing India into surrendering decisive military victories and accept an uneasy detente and death by a 1000 cuts.

Another major factor which has emerged over the past 20 years is the increasingly overt posture taken by China.  Indian military establishment has been forced into preparing for a two front war.  

Faced with a scenario where Pakistan is being overrun by Indian forces, it is quite likely that China will open a second front on India's eastern border.  Even a limited engagement would render India in a very difficult position.

Two more variables make PM Modi's task much more difficult than most of his followers are willing to understand.

The Gujral Doctrine destroyed India's covert operations within Pakistan and set us back 20 years.  Even a casual observer (such as yours truly) of international affairs knows that such an infrastructure, behind enemy lines, with deep ties to strong assets takes decades to develop.  Trust is hard earned and easily diluted.

The other factor that any Indian govt. would need to consider is the vast network of covert operatives put in place by ISI during the Sonia years.

It is a well accepted fact that the ruling party in India's largest state is soft on ISI for muslim votes.  They have allowed a free run to India's enemies to establish a strong presence within key Indian states, in close proximity to India's military assets.

The attack on Pathankhot was merely a glimpse into India's vulnerability on this front.

In a nutshell, India is hemmed in by world powers and exposed by the sins of commission and omission of its own political leaders.

A careful analysis of PM Modi and DM Parrikar's actions over the past 18 months suggests that they understand these constraints and are acting accordingly.

Their restraint is responding to Pakistan's continued betrayal should not be bucketed with the inaction displayed by previous Indian regimes.

So how is PM Modi different from his predecessors?

1.  PM Modi is working towards a permanent and decisive victory that will solve Pakistan for good.  By all and any means neccessary

2.  The world is now a very different place than it has been over the past 70 years.  Communism has been replaced by Islamism as the biggest threat to the world community.  Most westerners now recognize Pakistan's central role in birthing this evil into a 21st century existence.

This recognition presents a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for India to vanquish Pakistan out of existence.

PM Modi's bonhomie with Pakistan must be seen in this light.  It is for western consumption but make no mistake, the  PM's actions suggest he's preparing for a day of reckoning in a not so distant future.

3. Building India's military supply lines.
By making the manufacture of military hardware the cornerstone of his 'Make in India' campaign, PM Modi has signaled his desire to end or significantly diminish India's military dependence on foreign powers.  This will help in the event of a conventional war.  Pakistan's military and its economy cannot sustain an all out war beyond a 2 week window.

It is for this reason that Pakis rattle their nuclear saber at the mere suggestion of an all out war.  It is also for this reason that Pakistan has developed a large arsenal of tactical nukes to be used on the battle field.

4. Since taking power the NDA govt has displayed a new found urgency in destroying ISI's cells across India.  This is vital as Pakistan can use these cells to keep Indian forces occupied with internal trouble and open a second front across India.

5. Building a strong pipeline of FDI in Indian economy is another pillar in the emerging military doctrine.  If the world is heavily invested in India with key mission critical operations run from Indian soil.  Pakistan will face the added pressure not to use even tactical nuclear weapons.  PM Modi's appeal to Chinese companies to invest in India should be seen in this light.

This is precisely the strategy deployed by China which has helped it neutralize Western pressure and allowed it to escalate its 'salami' strategy with great success.

6.  PM Modi is playing for time.  A Europe swamped by radical Islam will be much more sympathetic to India.  Similarly, though Obama and any democratic successor will continue to harbor a soft corner for Pakistan, the American public is reaching its wit's end. Tired and frustrated with Islam and Muslims and ready to support any country which can put an end to the source of this evil.

With the Iran Vs. Saudi conflict evolving into a Shia-Sunni world war, playing for time makes much more sense.  Pakistan is bound to be sucked into this conflict.  If not explicitly than certainly implicitly with the participation of its own carefully nurtured 'non-state' actors.

Any suggestion that Pakistan is contributing to the success of Iran's enemies will open a new avenue for India (if it hasnt already) via the Iranian border and allow the escalation of support for an independent Baluchistan.

Iran's continued openness to India's involvement in key ports and infrastructure in lieu of China's help should be seen as an indicator of Iran's concern.  Iran doesnt want China to have leverage over it in the event of Pakistan following its Sunni instincts and working against Iran.

Given these factors, PM Modi is on the right track.  Revenge is a dish best served cold.  For the next 2-3 years, the best reaction is no reaction.  Let Pakistan provoke and annoy India.  India should remain focused on building and modernizing her military base.

Domesticate military supply lines, build a strong economy and allow the animals to kill each other.  Prepare for the opportune time.  

For destiny bows to the prepared and the patient.

Jai Hind.

Why Is Trump Winning?

Summary:

1. American Exceptionalism

2. This is an 'issues' election

3. A rebel ready to burn down the house (i.e. DC politicians)

4. A Straight shooter who can be trusted

5. Bernie Sanders the last Communist

Political correctness has become an ideology in and of itself.  What began as a genuine need to eradicate racial and gender biases from social lexicon has now taken on a life of its own.  No politician or public figure can dare to support a cultural, racial or religious stereotype much less call for a change to public policy based on the said stereotype.

But Donald Trump has done just that and gone a step or two beyond that point.  By questioning Sen. McCain's military service to his nation, Donald Trump has targeted perhaps America's most sacred institution the armed forces and the men and women who serve in it.

Despite his many politically incorrect positions, Trump seems to be going from strength to strength.

Conventional political punditry dictates that any politician staking claim to such 'extreme' positions should be a non-starter in a Presidential race.  For not only does he/she alienate those he has directly targeted but also those voters who find such statement abhorrent.  

Trump on the other hand seems to be gathering his own version of 'Reagan Democrats'.

Media pundits have been perplexed first by Trump's rise and then by his staying power.  There's a very good chance he will be the Republican nominee by June.

What explains this?  And more importantly can he win?

Most Americans believe that America is the greatest nation in the history of human civilization.  Having lived in this country for several years now, I tend to agree.  Despite its many short comings America is the most egalitarian, welcoming, open society in the world today.

One could point to the status of African Americans as a blemish on America's otherwise stellar record on human rights, but that too fails to acknowledge the significant strides made over the past century.

America isnt perfect, but it's always seeking perfection.

The large number of CEOs and political leaders of Indian origin are only possible in America.  No other country has rewarded immigrants like America has.

To most Americans, America and the values it represents - life, liberty and the pursuit of Happiness - is a religion in itself, albeit a godless one.

Similarly most Muslims (even the moderate ones) believe that Islam is the final word in religions.  It is the most perfect creation of God and the Islamic god is the only true god.

Islam unlike other religions is also a political doctrine in addition to a social and spiritual one.

When Europeans are confronted by the rock solid strength of these Muslim beliefs, they tend to cave in.  Present day Europeans have to live with a long history of grave crimes committed by their ancestors across the world.  From colonialism to slavery to genocide culminating with the Holocaust, Europe has its own baggage to answer for.

America is straddled with no such baggage.  Two of the top contenders in the Republican primary are sons of immigrants from south america.  The same people targeted by a foul mouthed Trump.  One is an African American who briefly became one of the front runners.

Surely no latino will vote for the Donald but his supporters dont see him as a racist bigot.  They on the other hand see him as a leader who will end the welfare state and serve American citizens first.

Americans are perhaps the only people who can confidently tell the world's believers that our system, our democracy is superior to Islam.  Our ideas and ideals are superior and based on that superiority alone we shall win this war.  And because our constitution is the greatest political document ever composed we will not bow down to any man or god made alternative.

In his very ham handed way, Trump has made just this argument for calling for the exclusion of Muslims from American society.

By saying "America is superior to Islam, it is better, our values are what the world should aspire to" Trump is addressing multiple concerns and feelings simultaneously.  

America is great, America is better and America has nothing to be ashamed of.  

And he will bring America back on the track to greatness.

A few days back CNN ran an interesting story on how Trump and Bernie are speaking the same language on key issues.  Though their remedies differ markedly.

As expected Bernie's suggestions are to the far left.  But Trump is proposing some interesting solutions.

For instance, Trump has an interesting solution for HealthCare.  He proposes the elimination of artificial boundaries imposed by the Health Insurance industry wherein a near duopoly exists in each state with a handful of Insurance players allowed to operate in each market.  Which in turns gives them total control over these markets.

If all 100 or so Health plans are allowed to complete in every market, the resulting competition could drastically reduce insurance rates and costs.

This is a practical and obvious solution.  But no Washington insider can pull it off as most are being supported by the deep pocketed Health industry.

Bernie and Trump are the only candidates without a Super PAC to back them - one raising funds from small donors and the other spending his own wealth.

With no strings Donald and Bernie can rightly claim that they can take a machete to these crony capitalist policies.

To put it another way, this is an issues election.  Personalities dont matter as much.  As long as Trump is perceived as being a no-nonsense politician willing and able to take the ax to DC's incestous cluster gang-bang, he will keep winning.

Bernie Sanders seems to be emerging as his likeliest opponent.  Which would be great news for the Donald.  Bernie is prescribing a medicine so far to the left that even Lenin may be rolling his eyes.

It simply wont work in America.  "Free everything" doesnt work because Americans are one nation that understands that there's no free lunch.

If you tax the rich too much they will pack up and leave the country.  And the constitution will not allow any government to prevent this exodus.

Trump is winning because he has understood that Americans are fed up.  Anyone willing to talk straight and propose practical (albeit controversial) solutions will have a real chance of winning this election.

The Hispanic and Black vote will desert the Republicans unless they nominate Rubio or Cruz.  But even then it may not get a critical mass of this segment.  

Trump may just consolidate the White vote behind him and win in November.

Will he be able to deliver on his promises.  Probably not.  But we're talking about him winning an election not governing effectively.

From 'Garib Kalyan Melas' to 'Garib Kalyan Yatras'

Much to the anger and frustration of die hard rightists, PM Modi has consciously avoided the cookie cutter approach to right-of-center governance.  Most reforms have been initiated in a stealth mode with little fanfare and celebration.

No major big ticket divestment, no real deviation from UPA's economic template.

This is precisely what was suggested here - http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2011/06/understanding-indian-electorate.html

And it makes perfect political sense.  Infrastructure, Ease-of-doing-business, Startup India, Make in India, are much needed initiatives but they come with an innate limitation:  Their tangible, politically significant impact will only be felt around 2021.

Depending on right wing economics alone will deposit the Modi government in a repeat of NDA1 i.e. 2004 where results ABV's stellar performance from 99-2004 was reaped by an incompetent and corrupt Sonia Gandhi and which played a significant role in reelecting UPA to office.

But two factors are limiting the Modi Administration.

1. Urban inflation is hammering BJP's core urban voters
2. Policies from Crop Insurance to Food security are being sabotaged by a corrupt bureaucracy and a lack of awareness within the targeted communities

Inflation will need to be tackled on a war footing (more on it in a future post).

But the issue of awareness should be tackled like a mini-election campaign.

Gujarat BJP's most effective program was the 'Garib Kalyan Melas'.  Central BJP should launch a similar campaign at a national level 'Garib Kalyan Yatras'.

The Modi govt. has now implemented a viable set of initiatives which can perceptibly impact voters' daily lives.  From Jan Dhan and LPG subsidies to Crop insurance and health insurance.  

In other words, BJP and NDA now have enough to talk about and celebrate.

The logistics should be similar to what was used during 'Ram Janam Bhoomi' campaign.  Multiple Yatras initiated from different directions, culminating in a massive 2-day rally in Delhi to be attended by the Modi Cabinet.

The Yatras should be led by Young Indians (preferably non-political).  The idea should be for the yatra to spend a few days at key stops to educate people on Modi govts. policies and educate voters on how they can exploit these policies for their benefit.

Additionally Yatras should distribute goodies to the needy.  Wheel Chairs to the poor, prescription eye glasses, etc.  Same as was done with Garib Kalyan Melas.

Campaign should also have a social media element so that supporters can track, support and promote the yatras as they wind their way across the country.

Hope PM and BJP President think along these lines.