What do 1948, 1965, 1971, 1999 have in common? On each of those occasions India conclusively defeated Pakistan on the battle field, in some instances captured Pakistani territory and ended up surrendering hard won victories for little more than paper assurances like the Simla Agreement.
Surely Indian leadership should shoulder some of the blame but one cannot ignore the fact that world powers played their part in allowing Pakistan to get away with ....well....murder.
Any future conflict with Pakistan, limited or otherwise, must be a decisive one. India should aim to destroy Pakistan once and for all.
China, USA, Russia in that order do not want Pakistan be permanently destroyed. In the big power game Pakistan's remarkable geographic position (a shared border with or proximity to) 2 of the 3 big powers and Iran and the middle east, represents a unique opportunity. Control Pakistan and you can gain leverage over a 3rd of the global population and two of the biggest markets.
Throughout those earlier conflicts India has been militarily and economically dependent on world powers. One big factor in preventing India from opening additional fronts during the 1999 Kargil conflict was the not so subtle pressure exerted by CEOs of major MNCs.
India's economy was (and continues to be) vulnerable to long term damage inflicted by a prolonged conflict with a nuclear neighbor. FDI would disappear and remain out of reach if mission critical back office operations of firms such as GE and Citibank were under threat of military conflict.
More importantly, with India importing almost all key military hardware, foreign powers could easily cripple India's war effort by delaying (if not withholding) delivery of critical spares for fighter jets, submarines, howitzer guns, etc.
Clearly these constraints played an important role in forcing India into surrendering decisive military victories and accept an uneasy detente and death by a 1000 cuts.
Another major factor which has emerged over the past 20 years is the increasingly overt posture taken by China. Indian military establishment has been forced into preparing for a two front war.
Faced with a scenario where Pakistan is being overrun by Indian forces, it is quite likely that China will open a second front on India's eastern border. Even a limited engagement would render India in a very difficult position.
Two more variables make PM Modi's task much more difficult than most of his followers are willing to understand.
The Gujral Doctrine destroyed India's covert operations within Pakistan and set us back 20 years. Even a casual observer (such as yours truly) of international affairs knows that such an infrastructure, behind enemy lines, with deep ties to strong assets takes decades to develop. Trust is hard earned and easily diluted.
The other factor that any Indian govt. would need to consider is the vast network of covert operatives put in place by ISI during the Sonia years.
It is a well accepted fact that the ruling party in India's largest state is soft on ISI for muslim votes. They have allowed a free run to India's enemies to establish a strong presence within key Indian states, in close proximity to India's military assets.
The attack on Pathankhot was merely a glimpse into India's vulnerability on this front.
In a nutshell, India is hemmed in by world powers and exposed by the sins of commission and omission of its own political leaders.
A careful analysis of PM Modi and DM Parrikar's actions over the past 18 months suggests that they understand these constraints and are acting accordingly.
Their restraint is responding to Pakistan's continued betrayal should not be bucketed with the inaction displayed by previous Indian regimes.
So how is PM Modi different from his predecessors?
1. PM Modi is working towards a permanent and decisive victory that will solve Pakistan for good. By all and any means neccessary
2. The world is now a very different place than it has been over the past 70 years. Communism has been replaced by Islamism as the biggest threat to the world community. Most westerners now recognize Pakistan's central role in birthing this evil into a 21st century existence.
This recognition presents a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for India to vanquish Pakistan out of existence.
PM Modi's bonhomie with Pakistan must be seen in this light. It is for western consumption but make no mistake, the PM's actions suggest he's preparing for a day of reckoning in a not so distant future.
3. Building India's military supply lines.
By making the manufacture of military hardware the cornerstone of his 'Make in India' campaign, PM Modi has signaled his desire to end or significantly diminish India's military dependence on foreign powers. This will help in the event of a conventional war. Pakistan's military and its economy cannot sustain an all out war beyond a 2 week window.
It is for this reason that Pakis rattle their nuclear saber at the mere suggestion of an all out war. It is also for this reason that Pakistan has developed a large arsenal of tactical nukes to be used on the battle field.
4. Since taking power the NDA govt has displayed a new found urgency in destroying ISI's cells across India. This is vital as Pakistan can use these cells to keep Indian forces occupied with internal trouble and open a second front across India.
5. Building a strong pipeline of FDI in Indian economy is another pillar in the emerging military doctrine. If the world is heavily invested in India with key mission critical operations run from Indian soil. Pakistan will face the added pressure not to use even tactical nuclear weapons. PM Modi's appeal to Chinese companies to invest in India should be seen in this light.
This is precisely the strategy deployed by China which has helped it neutralize Western pressure and allowed it to escalate its 'salami' strategy with great success.
6. PM Modi is playing for time. A Europe swamped by radical Islam will be much more sympathetic to India. Similarly, though Obama and any democratic successor will continue to harbor a soft corner for Pakistan, the American public is reaching its wit's end. Tired and frustrated with Islam and Muslims and ready to support any country which can put an end to the source of this evil.
With the Iran Vs. Saudi conflict evolving into a Shia-Sunni world war, playing for time makes much more sense. Pakistan is bound to be sucked into this conflict. If not explicitly than certainly implicitly with the participation of its own carefully nurtured 'non-state' actors.
Any suggestion that Pakistan is contributing to the success of Iran's enemies will open a new avenue for India (if it hasnt already) via the Iranian border and allow the escalation of support for an independent Baluchistan.
Iran's continued openness to India's involvement in key ports and infrastructure in lieu of China's help should be seen as an indicator of Iran's concern. Iran doesnt want China to have leverage over it in the event of Pakistan following its Sunni instincts and working against Iran.
Given these factors, PM Modi is on the right track. Revenge is a dish best served cold. For the next 2-3 years, the best reaction is no reaction. Let Pakistan provoke and annoy India. India should remain focused on building and modernizing her military base.
Domesticate military supply lines, build a strong economy and allow the animals to kill each other. Prepare for the opportune time.
For destiny bows to the prepared and the patient.
Jai Hind.
Surely Indian leadership should shoulder some of the blame but one cannot ignore the fact that world powers played their part in allowing Pakistan to get away with ....well....murder.
Any future conflict with Pakistan, limited or otherwise, must be a decisive one. India should aim to destroy Pakistan once and for all.
China, USA, Russia in that order do not want Pakistan be permanently destroyed. In the big power game Pakistan's remarkable geographic position (a shared border with or proximity to) 2 of the 3 big powers and Iran and the middle east, represents a unique opportunity. Control Pakistan and you can gain leverage over a 3rd of the global population and two of the biggest markets.
Throughout those earlier conflicts India has been militarily and economically dependent on world powers. One big factor in preventing India from opening additional fronts during the 1999 Kargil conflict was the not so subtle pressure exerted by CEOs of major MNCs.
India's economy was (and continues to be) vulnerable to long term damage inflicted by a prolonged conflict with a nuclear neighbor. FDI would disappear and remain out of reach if mission critical back office operations of firms such as GE and Citibank were under threat of military conflict.
More importantly, with India importing almost all key military hardware, foreign powers could easily cripple India's war effort by delaying (if not withholding) delivery of critical spares for fighter jets, submarines, howitzer guns, etc.
Clearly these constraints played an important role in forcing India into surrendering decisive military victories and accept an uneasy detente and death by a 1000 cuts.
Another major factor which has emerged over the past 20 years is the increasingly overt posture taken by China. Indian military establishment has been forced into preparing for a two front war.
Faced with a scenario where Pakistan is being overrun by Indian forces, it is quite likely that China will open a second front on India's eastern border. Even a limited engagement would render India in a very difficult position.
Two more variables make PM Modi's task much more difficult than most of his followers are willing to understand.
The Gujral Doctrine destroyed India's covert operations within Pakistan and set us back 20 years. Even a casual observer (such as yours truly) of international affairs knows that such an infrastructure, behind enemy lines, with deep ties to strong assets takes decades to develop. Trust is hard earned and easily diluted.
The other factor that any Indian govt. would need to consider is the vast network of covert operatives put in place by ISI during the Sonia years.
It is a well accepted fact that the ruling party in India's largest state is soft on ISI for muslim votes. They have allowed a free run to India's enemies to establish a strong presence within key Indian states, in close proximity to India's military assets.
The attack on Pathankhot was merely a glimpse into India's vulnerability on this front.
In a nutshell, India is hemmed in by world powers and exposed by the sins of commission and omission of its own political leaders.
A careful analysis of PM Modi and DM Parrikar's actions over the past 18 months suggests that they understand these constraints and are acting accordingly.
Their restraint is responding to Pakistan's continued betrayal should not be bucketed with the inaction displayed by previous Indian regimes.
So how is PM Modi different from his predecessors?
1. PM Modi is working towards a permanent and decisive victory that will solve Pakistan for good. By all and any means neccessary
2. The world is now a very different place than it has been over the past 70 years. Communism has been replaced by Islamism as the biggest threat to the world community. Most westerners now recognize Pakistan's central role in birthing this evil into a 21st century existence.
This recognition presents a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for India to vanquish Pakistan out of existence.
PM Modi's bonhomie with Pakistan must be seen in this light. It is for western consumption but make no mistake, the PM's actions suggest he's preparing for a day of reckoning in a not so distant future.
3. Building India's military supply lines.
By making the manufacture of military hardware the cornerstone of his 'Make in India' campaign, PM Modi has signaled his desire to end or significantly diminish India's military dependence on foreign powers. This will help in the event of a conventional war. Pakistan's military and its economy cannot sustain an all out war beyond a 2 week window.
It is for this reason that Pakis rattle their nuclear saber at the mere suggestion of an all out war. It is also for this reason that Pakistan has developed a large arsenal of tactical nukes to be used on the battle field.
4. Since taking power the NDA govt has displayed a new found urgency in destroying ISI's cells across India. This is vital as Pakistan can use these cells to keep Indian forces occupied with internal trouble and open a second front across India.
5. Building a strong pipeline of FDI in Indian economy is another pillar in the emerging military doctrine. If the world is heavily invested in India with key mission critical operations run from Indian soil. Pakistan will face the added pressure not to use even tactical nuclear weapons. PM Modi's appeal to Chinese companies to invest in India should be seen in this light.
This is precisely the strategy deployed by China which has helped it neutralize Western pressure and allowed it to escalate its 'salami' strategy with great success.
6. PM Modi is playing for time. A Europe swamped by radical Islam will be much more sympathetic to India. Similarly, though Obama and any democratic successor will continue to harbor a soft corner for Pakistan, the American public is reaching its wit's end. Tired and frustrated with Islam and Muslims and ready to support any country which can put an end to the source of this evil.
With the Iran Vs. Saudi conflict evolving into a Shia-Sunni world war, playing for time makes much more sense. Pakistan is bound to be sucked into this conflict. If not explicitly than certainly implicitly with the participation of its own carefully nurtured 'non-state' actors.
Any suggestion that Pakistan is contributing to the success of Iran's enemies will open a new avenue for India (if it hasnt already) via the Iranian border and allow the escalation of support for an independent Baluchistan.
Iran's continued openness to India's involvement in key ports and infrastructure in lieu of China's help should be seen as an indicator of Iran's concern. Iran doesnt want China to have leverage over it in the event of Pakistan following its Sunni instincts and working against Iran.
Given these factors, PM Modi is on the right track. Revenge is a dish best served cold. For the next 2-3 years, the best reaction is no reaction. Let Pakistan provoke and annoy India. India should remain focused on building and modernizing her military base.
Domesticate military supply lines, build a strong economy and allow the animals to kill each other. Prepare for the opportune time.
For destiny bows to the prepared and the patient.
Jai Hind.
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