Wednesday, December 17, 2014

PM Modi needs a Consigliere


Governing in the cesspool that is Delhi is markedly different from governing at a state level.  For that matter, Delhi itself is vastly different from say DC or Beijing or any other prominent political capital.  The crooks in those capitals play by a set of rules.  Rules that are only occasionally violated.  And when violated the punishment is severe.  A “Watergated” Nixon being a prime example.

Delhi on the other hand takes no prisoners.  It has been the capital of intrigue much longer than any other city.  Governing a populace and geographic foot print larger than any other capital in Human history.

More importantly, Delhi has seen it all.  Rulers and Dynasties have come and go, but good old Delhi chews them up and spits them out eventually.

It is this swamp of pimps, hos and assassins which Narendra Damodardas Modi has made it his life’s mission to reform and transform. 

What we’re witnessing today is a silent but lethal (may be even fatal) struggle between Delhi and PM Modi.

Only a man with NaMo’s courage, sagacity and wisdom could attempt to reform this city and bring her to her knees. 

But much like ABV, PM Modi is missing a key component in the political arsenal he has assembled.  That piece is an Amit Shah like figure within the government.  No not someone like Ahmed Patel.  Patel after all was a product of Delhi. 

What I’m describing here is a political mind who would guide and position NDA’s every action in the optimum political framework.  In fact it would help if such an individual was allowed to vet every government policy initiative before making it public.

It is the lack of such a Consigliere which has made NDA look like a one-step-forward-two-steps-back government.  Given the PM’s immense popularity and the relative youth of this government, none of UPA’s allegations are sticking.  But the Teflon may start wearing off around mid-2016.  When govt policies are more work-in-progress with little to show in terms of results.  Finding and recruiting a politico-government senapati at such a late juncture would prove ineffective and worst still, counterproductive.  Time for installing said Consigliere is now.

Moreover, BJP is interacting with the outside world, much the same way Congress did:

  • Declare a policy or program
  • Engage prime time news anchors in a nightly wrestling match
  • Come back bruised and live to fight another day.

This tactic worked for UPA-1.  But once corruption charges started piling up, the very act of engaging non-Congress, non-UPA channels resulted in Sonia digging an even deeper hole for her brood and herself.

The Xmas controversy, Ghar Wapsi damp squib, are merely symptoms of this flawed, listless ‘strategy’ if indeed there’s one.

What it suggests is that opposition ranks, through their well nurtured assets in media, NGOs, etc. are sniffing around, probing to find a chink in NDA’s armor.

With Sonia’s corruption still fresh in people’s mind, this sniffing has yielded little.  But a few more months of a perceived drift and BJP will spend more time firefighting than governing and before you know it campaign 2019 will be underway with little to show for 3.5 years of governance.

By 2017, PM Modi will no longer be measured against performance of his predecessor but the vision of his former self i.e. CM Modi.

Given these variables, a Chief of Staff, Senapati, Consigliere within the PMO is of vital importance.

What would his/her resume look like and what would be the mandate?

Mandate:

  1. Coordinate between various wings of the government on the correct message to be given to the larger public
    1. Do this without slowing down decision making
  2.  
  3. Pre-sell every policy by creating a ‘teaser’ campaign in the media
    1. Test the waters by feeding ‘inside’ info to non-state actors such as economists, journalists not associated with the BJP
    2. Keep a distance from these campaigns so ‘plausible deniability’ is seldom sacrificed
  4. Dig up dirt on every Sonia asset in the media and NGO network.
    1. Tranquilize these assets by sending a subtle message without causing any public exposure or loss of face to them
  5. On an ongoing basis anticipate and monitor fallout of government policies
  6. Keep the NaMo Army engaged and equipped to confront future challenges
  7. Game NDA’s policies to ‘predict’ their likely outcome
  8. Conduct a political ROI of Govt programs
  9. Collect and document data to establish NDA’s superior performance
  10. Channel data/results back to government to help improve performance of various policies
  11. Channel feedback from social media into various government initiatives so as to create a sense of partnership
  12. Ensure that valid suggestions find their way into policies and programs

Resume:

  1. Unknown face
  2. Immersed in Sangh’s ideology
  3. Someone who understands and can predict political fallout of government programs and policies
  4. Committed to a ‘Congress Mukht Bharat’
  5. Experienced in media management
    1. Not friendly or acquainted with any media outlet
    2. Has no history of interaction with media or NGO channels
  6. Needless to say, completely non-corrupt
  7. Tough, uncompromising and ruthless
  8. Ability to engage a diverse section of BJP supporters – from board rooms to the political akhadas

In short, NDA needs a Sicilian consigliere.

Hope PM Modi can find such a person.  Would help reduce the noise and allow government to function more smoothly and deliver 2019.

 

Tuesday, December 9, 2014

PM Modi and his Internet Hindus

PM Modi is gradually losing support from a section of his core constituency i.e. Internet Hindus.  

Since taking office several small incidents have rocked this group to the core.   What has led to this rising anger against BJP’s govt is not so much the incident itself but the fact that top leaders of the BJP are now openly consorting and fraternizing with the same enemy who till a few months ago was hell bent on preventing NaMo from taking office.

BJP’s own ministers find it more appealing to ignore the right wing agenda and break bread with discredited, corrupt, compromised media pimps.

Moreover, this army of dedicated supporters took up arms against and defeated an enemy that BJP itself was never able to vanquish.  This may sound like a bombastic statement, but BJP’s own resources lacked a critical weapon in this war i.e. credibility

Sonia’s carefully cultivated media pimps had successfully countered LKA’s bid for PMship in 2009.  But with little more than an internet connection and shear resourcefulness this army of Internet Hindus went to fight on behalf of the PM.  Sonia’s efforts to spread lies against NaMo through her paid channels – media, AAP, etc. were neutralized largely due to the efforts of these Internet Hindus.

With no personal agendas, this group carried far more credibility than any BJP spokesperson or friendly media face.

Sonia’s media peddled a lie about NaMo – his performance as CM of Gujarat, Gujarat’s development model, etc.  Internet Hindus researched facts and presented them to the larger internet community.  These facts were repeated and reinforced across social media, blogs, comments sections, etc. and media’s black ops strategies were neutralized.

News anchors were check mated such that they could no longer host evening programs without taking cognizance of these facts.  If they ran a news items and omitted facts highlighted by Internet Hindus, outrage on social media would lead to a loss of credibility.  Unlike 2009, media was unable to peddle lies in an unending loop to paint NaMo as a ‘marketing phenomenon’ or a ‘communal monster’.

Sonia’s media was neutered and their attacks on NaMo boomeranged. 

On the flip side, without a clean, honest, proven leader like NaMo, none of this would have worked.  Fighting for NaMo was vastly different from fighting for LKA.  But even NaMo would acknowledge the contribution of his Internet Hindus.

Sadly, their emotions are blinding Internet Hindus to ground realities.

a.       PM Modi cannot control every leaf that falls from every branch of every tree.  He has taken complete control where it matters most as evidenced by his insistence on appointing key babus in every ministry.  He cannot micro manage down to a point where his generals revolt or sulk.  Pushing them to account for every minute of their lives would engender resentment and have adverse consequences on their performance

c.       While NDA2 may seem like appeasing minorities the ground realities are a bit different.  Actions which till April of 2014 were unimaginable are now routine.  Example:  clearing slums established by housing illegal Bangladeshis, reconversions, introduction of Sanskrit, etc.
a.       This suggests a careful carrot-and-stick strategy.  Appease minorities but affect a deeper social, economic and demographic change on the ground

d.      A massive military buildup across Indo-China border

e.      A smash mouth response to Paki provocations

f.        Dawood on the run

g.       A rapid scaling up of infrastructure development

h.      Controlling inflation

i.         Forcing Congress out of its strongholds


Moreover, the PM has seldom taken decisions without careful consideration.  His greatest quality is that he’s a brilliant listener and takes decisions after carefully considering all sides of the issue. 
Swatting a media mosquito or a small time babu is not a PM’s job.  He has much bigger dragons to slay.

Sonia has gifted him a patient with stage 4 cancer.  He has to first stop the cancer from spreading, heal the patient, reinstate her health and finally prepare her for battle.

We Internet Hindus in our anger over BJP leaders hobnobbing with media personalities are missing this larger picture.  PM Modi is clearly working to a plan.  He cannot possibly go public with it.  So give him 3-4 years and then judge his performance.

Given his track record, I’m certain he will exceed even our lofty expectations.