Several years back a US based friend visited his home in Delhi and joined a group of old college buddies for a round of golf. His friends came from well heeled backgrounds. Most took their families on annual international holidays, lived in the best neighborhoods and belonged to what we could call the 1% club - those Indians who want for nothing.
Upon finishing their round, my friend gave his caddy a couple of hundred rupees. The caddy was delighted and wouldnt stop thanking him.
My friend's buddies were furious with him. He was 'spoiling' the help, they protested. This was India not, the US.
My friend pointed out that he made (even in dollars) far less than most of those who had enjoyed that round of golf in Delhi's obnoxious heat and left it at that.
When he narrated this incident to me, we both shared our shock at how India's elite viewed their servants and those they considered 'below' their level.
Social divisions in India are sharply pronounced and wealth seems to sharpen them further. India's poor are invisible to most of us and their disdainful treatment is such a part of our dna that both rich and poor have found a way to internalize and rationalize it.
But the poor never forget nor forgive. Every 5 years they throw up mandates that shock us - Bihar's most recent state elections being only the latest example.
While media pundits and economists have argued over the sociopolitical impact of PM Modi's demonitization drive, two variables of far greater value seem to have been ignored.
Read on.
It was John Edwards who first coined the slogan 'There are two Americas' to highlight the growing disparity between haves and have nots in American society.
In a country as diverse as India, this disparity is perhaps the only constant. 1% Vs. 99%.
Consider this:
Mukesh Ambani owns a billion dollar home but only 1% of Indians can afford a home costing more than Rs. 10 Lakhs.
And in cities like Mumbai even a slum dwelling costs more than 10 lakhs.
India's wealth disparity and the conspicous, in-your-face consumption of its elite (Rs. 500 crore Reddy wedding is only the latest reminder) has long driven a steak through the hearts of those 99% Indians who live pay check to pay check and can only dream of having a secure financial future.
This imbalance has long offered an ideal breeding ground for anti-establishment politicians such as Laloo and Mayawati. Even the original Indira Gandhi understood this dynamic and exploited it to the hilt. This constituency abandoned her party and took refuge in caste based identity largely due to Congress' failure to deliver on 'garibi hatao' and other pie in the sky promises.
Demonitization seems to have hoisted PM Modi into the position of social warrior. And he seems to have achieved this feat by uniting Hindus not dividing them.
Demonitization is seen (by the 99%) more as a socioeconomic crusade and less as a financial clean up operation. It isnt that the poor are enjoying the hardship experienced by the rich. Instead they are enjoying the spectacle of an honest, upright chaiwala single handedly destroying the high and mighty who for long have exploited their networks to rig the system into benefiting their cronies.
Much as Dalits and Yadavs enjoyed watching Maya and Laloo stick it to non-backwards by flaunting her ill gotten wealth and power, India's 99% are celebrating the crusade launched by one of their own. A 99 percenter taking on the high and mighty and winning.
Immediately after the surgical strikes on POK based camps, I had postulated that PM Modi has entered a political orbit of his own and it would now become increasingly difficult for his opponents to catch up -
http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2016/10/surgical-strike-real-reason-behind.html
Demonitization has the potential to take him a step further into an orbit that will make him India's Lincoln or Lee Kuan Yew - leaders who in their life time could not be challenged. Leaders who became larger than life and their connect with people was such that even their imperfections and mistakes were overlooked by voters.
The chaiwala has now become the champion of the poor. Move over Mayawati, Mamta, Sonia, Mulayam.....or even Kejriwal. In one swift stroke PM Modi has replaced them as the true icon of the have nots.
In one stroke he has separated himself from not only his competitors but also his party (more on the dangers of this to the BJP later in this piece).
The second variable.
Since its inception RSS has moved heaven and earth to establish a modicum of Hindu unity. To even a casual student of Indian history, it is fairly obvious that Hindu unity has yielded victories and prosperity.
From Chatrapati Shivaji Maharaj to India's freedom struggle, a united India has always defeated her enemies.
But said unity has been ephemeral at best. Achieved against great odds, typically in dire circumstances when Hindu survival is at stake.
In post 1947 India, the much needed threshold of Hindu unity has been achieved twice:
1. During the Ram Janma Bhoomi Agitation
2. During LS 2014 campaign for NaMo's election to PMship
Demonitization has the potential to flip the script so that Indians unite based on economic issues and not caste/region/language/religion based ones.
This is of vital importance. If Dalits/Yadavs/Marathas..etc. see themselves as economically disadvantaged and not socially disadvantaged and vote for the most honest and competent parties, BJP can best its opponents well beyond 2019.
By uniting Hindus based on economic class, Demonitization and the larger anti-corruption crusade may dilute caste/regional identities vis-a-vis electoral importance and bring about Hindu unity as an unintended consequence.
Imagine an India where Hindus unite because they trust a leadership driven by exceptional qualities and not the caste/regional identities.
PM Modi has worked to well thought out plan to achieve just such a shift in Indian politics. He has created a league of extraordinary men and women.
His cabinet is filled with highly competent leaders whose integrity is impeccable.
Most importantly, where ever possible, he has picked state CMs (Fadnavis being a great example) who share the same traits - Clean, competent, hardworking.
He has refused to buckle under caste pressures be it Jats, Marathas or Patels.
Demonitization has place BJP and PM Modi in an almost invincible position of being on the right side of class and clean politics.
By over emphasizing class as a unifier, demonitization may have rendered caste a less efficacious factor in Indian politics.
It's too early to tell if these shifts will hold. But there's no denying that this shift is underway and the more PM Modi targets the corrupt system the more support he garners from India's unwashed masses aka voters.
But BJP needs to be very careful. Not much good will won by PM Modi is rubbing off on the party.
Excluding a few leaders, the party is seen as a lesser evil. The party must carry out an internal purge at the opportune time to garner more of this magic political dust.
Failure to mold itself in the image of PM Modi could cause severe damage in a post-NaMo era.
Upon finishing their round, my friend gave his caddy a couple of hundred rupees. The caddy was delighted and wouldnt stop thanking him.
My friend's buddies were furious with him. He was 'spoiling' the help, they protested. This was India not, the US.
My friend pointed out that he made (even in dollars) far less than most of those who had enjoyed that round of golf in Delhi's obnoxious heat and left it at that.
When he narrated this incident to me, we both shared our shock at how India's elite viewed their servants and those they considered 'below' their level.
Social divisions in India are sharply pronounced and wealth seems to sharpen them further. India's poor are invisible to most of us and their disdainful treatment is such a part of our dna that both rich and poor have found a way to internalize and rationalize it.
But the poor never forget nor forgive. Every 5 years they throw up mandates that shock us - Bihar's most recent state elections being only the latest example.
While media pundits and economists have argued over the sociopolitical impact of PM Modi's demonitization drive, two variables of far greater value seem to have been ignored.
Read on.
It was John Edwards who first coined the slogan 'There are two Americas' to highlight the growing disparity between haves and have nots in American society.
In a country as diverse as India, this disparity is perhaps the only constant. 1% Vs. 99%.
Consider this:
Mukesh Ambani owns a billion dollar home but only 1% of Indians can afford a home costing more than Rs. 10 Lakhs.
And in cities like Mumbai even a slum dwelling costs more than 10 lakhs.
India's wealth disparity and the conspicous, in-your-face consumption of its elite (Rs. 500 crore Reddy wedding is only the latest reminder) has long driven a steak through the hearts of those 99% Indians who live pay check to pay check and can only dream of having a secure financial future.
This imbalance has long offered an ideal breeding ground for anti-establishment politicians such as Laloo and Mayawati. Even the original Indira Gandhi understood this dynamic and exploited it to the hilt. This constituency abandoned her party and took refuge in caste based identity largely due to Congress' failure to deliver on 'garibi hatao' and other pie in the sky promises.
Demonitization seems to have hoisted PM Modi into the position of social warrior. And he seems to have achieved this feat by uniting Hindus not dividing them.
Demonitization is seen (by the 99%) more as a socioeconomic crusade and less as a financial clean up operation. It isnt that the poor are enjoying the hardship experienced by the rich. Instead they are enjoying the spectacle of an honest, upright chaiwala single handedly destroying the high and mighty who for long have exploited their networks to rig the system into benefiting their cronies.
Much as Dalits and Yadavs enjoyed watching Maya and Laloo stick it to non-backwards by flaunting her ill gotten wealth and power, India's 99% are celebrating the crusade launched by one of their own. A 99 percenter taking on the high and mighty and winning.
Immediately after the surgical strikes on POK based camps, I had postulated that PM Modi has entered a political orbit of his own and it would now become increasingly difficult for his opponents to catch up -
http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2016/10/surgical-strike-real-reason-behind.html
Demonitization has the potential to take him a step further into an orbit that will make him India's Lincoln or Lee Kuan Yew - leaders who in their life time could not be challenged. Leaders who became larger than life and their connect with people was such that even their imperfections and mistakes were overlooked by voters.
The chaiwala has now become the champion of the poor. Move over Mayawati, Mamta, Sonia, Mulayam.....or even Kejriwal. In one swift stroke PM Modi has replaced them as the true icon of the have nots.
In one stroke he has separated himself from not only his competitors but also his party (more on the dangers of this to the BJP later in this piece).
The second variable.
Since its inception RSS has moved heaven and earth to establish a modicum of Hindu unity. To even a casual student of Indian history, it is fairly obvious that Hindu unity has yielded victories and prosperity.
From Chatrapati Shivaji Maharaj to India's freedom struggle, a united India has always defeated her enemies.
But said unity has been ephemeral at best. Achieved against great odds, typically in dire circumstances when Hindu survival is at stake.
In post 1947 India, the much needed threshold of Hindu unity has been achieved twice:
1. During the Ram Janma Bhoomi Agitation
2. During LS 2014 campaign for NaMo's election to PMship
Demonitization has the potential to flip the script so that Indians unite based on economic issues and not caste/region/language/religion based ones.
This is of vital importance. If Dalits/Yadavs/Marathas..etc. see themselves as economically disadvantaged and not socially disadvantaged and vote for the most honest and competent parties, BJP can best its opponents well beyond 2019.
By uniting Hindus based on economic class, Demonitization and the larger anti-corruption crusade may dilute caste/regional identities vis-a-vis electoral importance and bring about Hindu unity as an unintended consequence.
Imagine an India where Hindus unite because they trust a leadership driven by exceptional qualities and not the caste/regional identities.
PM Modi has worked to well thought out plan to achieve just such a shift in Indian politics. He has created a league of extraordinary men and women.
His cabinet is filled with highly competent leaders whose integrity is impeccable.
Most importantly, where ever possible, he has picked state CMs (Fadnavis being a great example) who share the same traits - Clean, competent, hardworking.
He has refused to buckle under caste pressures be it Jats, Marathas or Patels.
Demonitization has place BJP and PM Modi in an almost invincible position of being on the right side of class and clean politics.
By over emphasizing class as a unifier, demonitization may have rendered caste a less efficacious factor in Indian politics.
It's too early to tell if these shifts will hold. But there's no denying that this shift is underway and the more PM Modi targets the corrupt system the more support he garners from India's unwashed masses aka voters.
But BJP needs to be very careful. Not much good will won by PM Modi is rubbing off on the party.
Excluding a few leaders, the party is seen as a lesser evil. The party must carry out an internal purge at the opportune time to garner more of this magic political dust.
Failure to mold itself in the image of PM Modi could cause severe damage in a post-NaMo era.
