Tuesday, July 21, 2015

About time the gloves came off - Get Sonia. Now.

Even before votes were counted the then PM-in-waiting had signaled his intentions not to pursue Sonia and her brood.  There were important political and logistical compulsions behind his reluctance (see this
http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2014/07/the-pms-dilemma.html )

PM Modi had hoped that this hands-off approach would reassure the Sonia clan and institute an unspoken ceasefire of sorts between the two sides.

It would entail the following:  NDA goes slow on Sonia's corruption and Sonia allows NDA2 to get on with the vital task of governance.

Sonia haters (myself included) had hoped that this would be a temporary reprieve.  With passage of time, having gathered an envious record of governance, NDA2 could open a can of whoop ass on Sonia and her extended political family.

Eschewing an aggressive anti-Sonia posture at the outset made sense in June of 2014.  There were too many trap doors.  A long list of enemies - both internal and external - nurtured and prepared by Sonia and her handlers were waiting in the wings to ensnare the new govt.

Conscious of these pitfalls, PM Modi ignored Sonia and very methodically pursued the items on his To-do list:

Fix defense procurement,
re-energize the economy,
neutralize NGO-Evangelist ecosystem, etc.

But Sonia analyzed the situation and came to the same conclusions.  A performing NDA2 would be the last straw.  A performing NDA2 would surely write her political obituary.

Having to choose between sitting still and striking back, Sonia opted for a preemptive strike.

And at least for now, it has yielded results.

With NDA2's initiatives in their nascent stage, public is yet to feel their complete and perceptible impact.  In the absence of these tangible benefits a perception found breathing room in public discourse.  "NDA2 seems to have lost momentum"

Moreover, BJP seems to have lost its aggressive political edge.

Within these changing equations, PM Modi has continued with his 'rise above petty politics' strategy.  His govt. has jabbed at Sonia's 'Vadra' wounds, with little to suggest that it was ready to go in for the kill.

As detailed here http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2015/07/pm-is-creating-political-vacum.html - this strategy still makes sense.  But when the enemy changes her strategy a course modification if not a course-correction is called for.

Clearly, Sonia feigned her illness to launder her wealth both in India and abroad.  Moreover, it is likely that even a section of the judiciary has been co-opted into her vast ecosystem.

Given the potent and evil power of this ecosystem, political elimination of Sonia is a risky proposition.  Furthermore it may corner NDA2 into a political and governance quagmire.

But a solution must be found.  Sonia left unchallenged will force the PM into the same quagmire.

i.e. Either strategy - Staying the course or striking back - entails the same risk.

Having exhausted 15 of the 36 months needed to deliver good governance, PM Modi's options are now shrinking.  Time is not on his side.

The Gloves must come off.

By striking first, Sonia has stolen the early advantage but she doesnt (as yet) hold all the cards.

She can be wounded.  But the time for it is now.



Sunday, July 19, 2015

PM is creating a Political Vacum

For long suffering Indians like us, May 16th will forever remain a day of celebration.  It represents the culmination of a long battle and the first time Independent India elected an unabashedly Hindu leader.

PM Modi played the match perfectly.  Cornering pseudo secular opposition by neutralizing their favored battlegrounds whilst simultaneously launching quasi Hindutva strategies (such as Ganga bachao Andolan) which were impossible to counter.

But none of these would have been possible sans the unselfish work done by his core Hindu constituency.  They volunteered their time, their sweat, blood and tears because in PM Modi they saw the reincarnation of Chatrapati Shivaji Maharaj.

A man reborn to correct historical wrongs and restore Hinduism to its primary place in the world as Jagat Guru.

14 months has begun denting this belief.  In all fairness and in defense of Modiji, this is an unfair evaluation.

a) 14 months is too short a duration to judge anyone's performance, much less that of a leader straddled with unimaginable odds
b) There has indeed been action on the ground, from roll back/ban on Beef exports to reclamation of Yoga as a uniquely Hindu practice

What the core Hindu vote bank is failing to consider is that the leader of a democratic, responsible nation cannot act and speak as a candidate would.  We see this in nations across the globe.  Even after terror acts of 9/11 the Evangelical Christian President George W. Bush had to pay the usual, politically correct, lip service to how "Islam was a religion of Peace".

Similarly President Xi of China seldom comments on his government's draconian, anti-Muslim actions in Xinjiang.  Maintaining a 'secular' public posture.

The difference some may argue is that these heads of state peddle the PC stuff in public but in private they make lethal plans to hit the enemy where it hurts most.

However, they fail to understand that USA and China are the world's 1st and 2nd largest economies with defense forces that can fight a multi-front war.

In contrast, India has been lurking from one disaster to the next with very few countries willing to take her seriously as a global player.

Even without such lopsided odds, it behooves a head of state to always maintain a politically correct public posture.

Any departure from a centrist line would create unnecessary controversies and derail the very development agenda the PM was elected to implement.

While such a stance is no doubt a sagacious one, it could prove politically suicidal come reelection time.

Across the length and breath of India, Muslim hordes are muscling in on timid Indians.  The case of 14 year old teenager Tuktuki Mondal in Bengal is only the most recent manifestation of this growing aggression.  An aggression that tramples and trivializes all democratic values of tolerance and coexistence.

The collective social and political impotence of Hindus, is breeding a resentment not seen since the 'Jinnah was secular' gaffe from the original Hindu Iron Man.

Under the express orders of PM Modi, BJP and the larger sangh parivar have been instructed to eschew any political controversial 'communal' postures.

These twin factors and the consequent frustration engendered by them is creating a vacuum where no voice with any political or social heft is available to voice and support legitimate grievances of a beleaguered Hindu community.

If BJP and the PM continue with their hands-off approach towards the plight of Tuktuki Mondals, 2019 will prove to be a disaster.  Not because a Nitish or Pappu or Kejri would rise up to challenge the BJP, but their united front could deeply puncture the massive majority given to the PM in 2014.

(A Hung parliment would be just as disastrous to India and Hindus.)

After all it was a disgruntled Hindu core constituency which stayed home on election day in 2004, leading to a 10 year Congress rule that is easily the worst stretch of governance witnessed by Independent India.

PM Modi needs to find a way to fill this vacum and fast.  Time is not on his side.