In almost any conflict, it is very easy to get drawn into the events at hand. China's aggression in Ladakh is one such event. The pundits are grappling for an explanation. Why would China take the risk now, given the plethora of challenges it faces on multiple fronts.
Indians (as would be expected) are chalking up this aggression to China's domestic weakness. Or more importantly the supposed challenges Xi Jinping is facing within the CCP.
This is wishful thinking. Galwan happened not because China is weak but because Pakistan is at the weakest point in its history.
As explained in earlier posts (http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2017/06/the-approaching-war-india-vs-pakistan.html) Pakistan represents China's biggest strategic investment and the key to its super power ambitions beyond the South China Sea.
Recent reports of the massive scale of corruption within the much celebrated CPEC project give us an insight into how comprehensively China has taken over Pakistan.
This Chinese 'land grab' has coincided with Pakistan's descent into an economically failed state. Even expat Pakistanis are refusing to invest in their country.
Additionally, their Muslim allies across the Arab have sensed their beggarly economic status and have decided to abandon them. Throwing small crumbs in their direction for old times sake.
China now remains Pakistan's only dependable 'ally'.
India's decision to abrogate Article 370 was never a one-off move. It was part of a much larger strategic initiative to achieve multiple objectives:
1. Take back POK
2. End CPEC
3. Cut off Chinese access to the Arabian Sea and through it the middle east
4. Dismember Pakistan
5. Establish land access to Afghanistan
China cannot afford an Indo-Pak war. Any such conflict will have 3 possible outcomes. None of which favor China.
1. Pakistan is defeated and India takes back POK
2. India makes limited gains but stalls CPEC and all the assets China wants to build
3. A limited, localized nuclear exchange which, again, permanently destroys CPEC and Pakistan as a Vassal state, a West Coast North Korea if you will.
Much has been made of how India (under Chinese threat) is moving closer to the United States. But actually in equal measure, it is the USA which is rolling out the red carpet for India given its emerging Cold War with China.
Pakistan's dependence on American military hardware makes it a sitting duck in the event of a war that extends beyond the first week or two. Over the past several years, reports have emerged of how Pakistan is cannablising its own F-16s for parts to keep their main stay fighter jets in war readiness. They have also sought help from Turkey (a NATO ally with its own F-16 fleet) in this regard.
If Pakistan's main defenses are on such tenterhooks, what does it say about their other military assets. Tanks, Howitzers, Transport aircraft, wouldnt all these be facing the same shortages. Over the years China has supplemented some of this Pakistani hardware with their own jets and other military assets. But these have never been battle tested.
The J-10, introduced as recently as 2007 is based old Soviet designs and apart from Chinese vassal state has found few takers on the international market.
China cannot possibly replace Pakistan's aging American hardware accumulated over several decades. The cost would be staggering.
Given these factors, China's decision to engage India at Galwan can be explained by only one insight - Preemptive Strike.
Prevention, in the Chinese strategic doctrine, has emerged as the primary strategy.
China wants to prevent an Indian attack at all costs. Galwan wasnt about land grab or salami cuts or any of the conventional reasons belted out by experts.
It has been executed to scare Indians into not attacking Pakistan.
Once we understand this, we can now take the appropriate measures to counter China.
And the best way to counter China is to play possum and take this Chinese humiliation while continuing with the preparation for a war with Pakistan.
There will never be a better chance to permanently and irreversibly counter India's situation with Pakistan than in the next 6 to 12 months.
Take even 20 kms of strategic depth within POK and Pakistan can do little but witness its own disintegration.
India should sit back, keep preparing and attack Pakistan at a time and place of our choosing. The stars are aligned. Har Har Mahadev.
Indians (as would be expected) are chalking up this aggression to China's domestic weakness. Or more importantly the supposed challenges Xi Jinping is facing within the CCP.
This is wishful thinking. Galwan happened not because China is weak but because Pakistan is at the weakest point in its history.
As explained in earlier posts (http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2017/06/the-approaching-war-india-vs-pakistan.html) Pakistan represents China's biggest strategic investment and the key to its super power ambitions beyond the South China Sea.
Recent reports of the massive scale of corruption within the much celebrated CPEC project give us an insight into how comprehensively China has taken over Pakistan.
This Chinese 'land grab' has coincided with Pakistan's descent into an economically failed state. Even expat Pakistanis are refusing to invest in their country.
Additionally, their Muslim allies across the Arab have sensed their beggarly economic status and have decided to abandon them. Throwing small crumbs in their direction for old times sake.
China now remains Pakistan's only dependable 'ally'.
India's decision to abrogate Article 370 was never a one-off move. It was part of a much larger strategic initiative to achieve multiple objectives:
1. Take back POK
2. End CPEC
3. Cut off Chinese access to the Arabian Sea and through it the middle east
4. Dismember Pakistan
5. Establish land access to Afghanistan
China cannot afford an Indo-Pak war. Any such conflict will have 3 possible outcomes. None of which favor China.
1. Pakistan is defeated and India takes back POK
2. India makes limited gains but stalls CPEC and all the assets China wants to build
3. A limited, localized nuclear exchange which, again, permanently destroys CPEC and Pakistan as a Vassal state, a West Coast North Korea if you will.
Much has been made of how India (under Chinese threat) is moving closer to the United States. But actually in equal measure, it is the USA which is rolling out the red carpet for India given its emerging Cold War with China.
Pakistan's dependence on American military hardware makes it a sitting duck in the event of a war that extends beyond the first week or two. Over the past several years, reports have emerged of how Pakistan is cannablising its own F-16s for parts to keep their main stay fighter jets in war readiness. They have also sought help from Turkey (a NATO ally with its own F-16 fleet) in this regard.
If Pakistan's main defenses are on such tenterhooks, what does it say about their other military assets. Tanks, Howitzers, Transport aircraft, wouldnt all these be facing the same shortages. Over the years China has supplemented some of this Pakistani hardware with their own jets and other military assets. But these have never been battle tested.
The J-10, introduced as recently as 2007 is based old Soviet designs and apart from Chinese vassal state has found few takers on the international market.
China cannot possibly replace Pakistan's aging American hardware accumulated over several decades. The cost would be staggering.
Given these factors, China's decision to engage India at Galwan can be explained by only one insight - Preemptive Strike.
Prevention, in the Chinese strategic doctrine, has emerged as the primary strategy.
China wants to prevent an Indian attack at all costs. Galwan wasnt about land grab or salami cuts or any of the conventional reasons belted out by experts.
It has been executed to scare Indians into not attacking Pakistan.
Once we understand this, we can now take the appropriate measures to counter China.
And the best way to counter China is to play possum and take this Chinese humiliation while continuing with the preparation for a war with Pakistan.
There will never be a better chance to permanently and irreversibly counter India's situation with Pakistan than in the next 6 to 12 months.
Take even 20 kms of strategic depth within POK and Pakistan can do little but witness its own disintegration.
India should sit back, keep preparing and attack Pakistan at a time and place of our choosing. The stars are aligned. Har Har Mahadev.
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