Friday, June 19, 2020

ModAmerica - Did China walk into a trap

As details of China's aggression in Galwan Valley have emerged two questions have perplexed experts and laymen alike. 

China has taken over strategic mountain top locations and brought in heavy construction equipment.  None of these actions could happen without Indian intelligence having noticed it.  Not on a barren terrain and in the age of satellite and drone saturation. 

So the logical second question comes up.  Why did Indians not react in a timely manner.  At the very least Indian Army could have moved in and taken up positions to freeze Chinese actions. 

The answers to these questions lie within NDA's political actions.  Having followed and tracked PM Modi for almost 20 years now, I can say this with the greatest of confidence that he does not make loud pronouncements.  And neither does his trusted deputy HM Amit Shah. 

But ever since Article 370 was scrapped and J&K trifurcated,  Amit Shah in particular, have gone to town on how they plan to take back POK.  India's DM Rajnath Singh has played up the intention as well. 

It made no real sense.  Why would you publicly declare your intention and surrender the element of surprise?  Why warn your enemy and help them prepare for a possible attack. 

A panicky Pakistan has gone into hyper preparation.  Moving assets closer to the border and freaking out at the mere sight of a MIG on the India side of the border. 

As you place all these pieces in place an interesting picture emerges.  Was the intention to bait China into taking some action and then using the 'attack' to justify a grand alliance with the US? 

There's no way India's political equations would allow such an alliance in peace time.  From the loony Left to the Hindutva Right, India has a huge number of skeptics vis-a-vis an American alliance.  Given America's unreliability and a use-and-discard policy it has adopted with former allies, this reticence is partly justified. 

However, it does not take into account the altered global and regional realities.  A Chinese attack was perhaps the only way India could justify an alliance and railroad its way over local political opposition. 

Indians as a people have always admired America and the two democracies are natural allies.  The large number of American CEOs of Indian descent is just one example of how seamlessly Indians fit in with the American way of life and the broader American ideals of freedom, justice and the pursuit of happiness. 

Galwan was the perfect way to push India into a long term grand alliance on the lines of the alliance Post-war Japan nurtured and constructed with the Americans. 

The alliance holds great promise beyond military cooperation.  American businesses fleeing from China could provide the same level of management, tech and financial expertise and support to Indian companies which they provided to China over the past 20 years without incurring the risk of IP theft and military threat. 

Indians would have no problem in trading prosperity for American Hegemony as long as America doesnt take India and Indian concerns for granted. 

As long as America leaves wiggle room for India to posture on issues pertaining to Iran, etc. an Indo-US alliance could prove as effective as the Marshall plan. 

A new world order is taking shape and history may recognize June 16th, 2020 as the date it was birthed on the slopes of Himalayan moutains in the Galwan valley.


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