Friday, September 29, 2017

Short Game Over Long Game - Has PM Modi his own Magic Mantra #Elphinston

I can claim with the least bit of exaggeration that I have watched every speech made by CM Modi.  Every speech that was posted on Youtube.  

His first reelection bit in 2007 was won on the basis of a corruption free sarkar which provided 24x7 power and implemented several small but targeted schemes with a level of efficiency seldom seen in India. 

One of these 'smaller' schemes was the building of 1 lakh plus check dams across Gujarat which helped put Gujarat on the map as an agricultural state. 

In addition urban Gujarat was helped by small schemes of its own.  CM Modi was fond of displaying his success by saying "Every where you go in Gujarat you will see signs of progress.  A bus stand here, a public bathroom there, a new school here...."  and so on and so forth.  

His Long game (24x7 Power, Investor summit, etc.) was strong even then, but it was supplemented by a very strong, locally focused short game.  

This short game resulted in locally focused, visible signs of progress.  It reinforced the CM's claims that he was working tirelessly to bring them progress. 

Clearly, a PM cannot get 'local' beyond a certain point.  Building a Foot-over-Bridge must be the responsibility of the local officials.  

But the nature of 2014's mandate is such that every failure will be pinned on  the PM.  The upside to this dynamic is that credit for every success will also land at his feet.  

Through design or by accident, 2019 may evolve into a contest, not between NDA and UPA or 2014 vs. 2019 but between BJP and BJP i.e. a referendum on its performance.  UPA's scams may be drowned in the media created noise of how BJP hasnt delivered on its big promises.

Indians have a very short memory and more importantly they see Govt. as govt. Trying to explain to them that an MP cannot solve local problems falls on deaf ears. 

A string of tragedies, most, if not all of which should be laid at the door step of previous Congress govts. are becoming closely associated with BJP's record of governance. 

A middle class struggling with GST and Demonitization are fertile breeding grounds for media's new campaign "BJP doesnt work".

Early feedback suggests this campaign is gaining traction even with BJP voters.  Left unaddressed it could snatch vital seats from the BJP. 

 BJP may feel that it could replace its die-hard, loyal middle class voters with their new found Dalit/MBC/OBC/Poor voters.  

But this segment is even more fickle than the middle class.  Given promises of bigger sops could trigger an electorally significant exodus towards a fresh faced UPA. 

The bottom line is this:  PM Modi must go back to his time as CM and introduce some of the 'short game' that made him unbeatable in Gujarat.  

Start with 'Garib Kalyan Mela'

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