Wednesday, May 8, 2013

Lessons from Karnataka – (A few quick) Random Thoughts and Predictions


 

1.       You can’t go to war with a message that says: “Vote for us, we’re less corrupt”

2.       When attacked by CONgress, aim for the Queen and her brood. 

a.       Even if you get buried by CBI, etc. you will emerge a martyr, a hero to your people

b.      You could even play the regional card like NTR did when Rajiv humiliated AP CM

3.       BJP starts with a 20-25% handicap

a.       Minority voters will gang up against BJP

b.      Most states have a threshold of 40% vote share to win a comfortable majority of seats

                                                               i.      Having a lock on 20% minority votes gives CONgress a huge head start

                                                             ii.      While BJP has to win half of the remaining 80%, CONgress has to win just 25% of these votes to cross the aforementioned threshold

                                                            iii.      As explained here - http://centreright.in/2011/06/political-market-segmenttarget-and-deliver/#.UYr34CnD_mI  BJP’s real pool of voters come from approx.65 to 70% of voters.  10% non-minority voters (the elite) rarely vote

                                                           iv.      This further dents BJP’s chances

4.       BJP’s voter base is different

a.       This has been evident since (at least) 2005 when the Pramod Mahajan scandal broke

                                                               i.      If BJP is perceived as CONgress’ mini-me, BJP’s voter base will simply sit it out

                                                             ii.      CONgress, Mayawati, SP, etc have dedicated caste and religious vote banks that have a different set of demands beyond good and clean governance

                                                            iii.      BJP’s vote bank demands – Clean AND Good Governance

                                                           iv.      Hindutva is a nice to have.  Unlike RoL and RoP voters, BJP voters will not forgive/overlook a shady leadership which swears by Hindutva

                                                             v.      NaMo is the best example of this maxim – Clean and Good Governance with Hindutva elements kept on a short lease, in Hindutva’s original laboratory

5.       Mayawati’s win in 2007 was the first indication that people are tired of coalitions and instability

a.       When much-abused Brahmins voted for her in large numbers, days of coalition politics were numbered

                                                               i.      Mayawati 2007

                                                             ii.      UPA2    

                                                            iii.      Maharashtra 2009

                                                           iv.      UP 2012

                                                             v.      Gujarat 2012

b.      But there’s a caveat and it is this

                                                               i.      To harness a decisive mandate, voters must be presented a clear choice

                                                             ii.      At the national level NaMo is the only option and given a clear choice people will give him (not the BJP) a decisive mandate

c.       Example:  If Maharastra was presented with a decisive leader with a  can-do attitude/reputation, CONgress-NCP would be history

6.       Karnataka results are a warning for both Sonia and BJP’s D4: Your days are numbered

a.       Karnataka results suggest a high level of voter awareness

b.      A well informed voter is a decisive voter

c.       Most importantly Indian voter is PISSED OFF

d.      The anger is palpable – Politics of Patronage and cynicism is on its last legs

7.       The biggest winner of Karnataka Polls:  Narendra Modi

a.       “Here he goes again” before you spout that sentiment read this carefully

b.      BJP has little choice left

c.       Resolve of BJP’s cadre will grow stronger vis-à-vis NaMo

d.      With LKA and AK identified as villains any attempts to engineer a coup in their favor will be met with an open cadre-led revolt

e.      Fear of UPA3 will grow with this Karnataka win and make BJP voters more eager to vote – ensuring solid turnout

f.        Complacency will be rooted out “Remember Karnataka”

g.       Just as massive mandates have led to a short honeymoons and rapid voter disenchantment in UP and Bihar, so will Karnataka regret its mistake within 12 months – just in time for the LS elections

h.      With 9 CM contenders and a political machine hungry after 7 years in the wilderness, scams will multiply – BJP must prepare to pounce

i.         Karnataka will become Exhibit A of all that is wrong with the CONgress

8.       When allegations of corruption emerge – act swiftly and decisively

a.       What destroyed BJP in Karnataka was not the removal of Yeddy but the accompanying drama

b.      LKA was able to bounce back from Jain-hawala scandal thanks to his prompt resignation and his pledge not to return to public office till his name was cleared

c.       Try to enforce strong discipline amongst local and national leadership vis-a-vis corruption

                                                               i.      NaMo’s perfect reputation shielded him from lethal political vendetta

                                                             ii.      Learn from it

9.       Corruption has emerged as THE issue

a.       Contrary to conventional wisdom it was corruption that destroyed BJP’s chances

10.   In politics 1+1 is not always = 2.  If Yeddy had stayed in the BJP, CONgress would have gotten only slightly fewer seats.

11.   At best, BJP would have been forced into a coalition with JDS.  A disastrous move for 2014

12.   Recognize CONgress’ game plan – its favorite MO

a.       Divide opposition votes

                                                               i.      Either engineer splits – Keshubhai, Yeddy or

                                                             ii.      Create new opposition parties – RajT, Chiru, Kejriwal

b.      BJP must guard against these entities and neutralize them by

                                                               i.      Either co-opting them or

                                                             ii.      Destroying their credibility

13.   Arvind Kejriwal’s party will emerge as single largest party in Delhi or the main opposition party

a.       Delhi BJP is perceived as CONgress’s B-team

b.      SheilaD survives in Delhi the same way Sonia survives in India – on the tacit support of BJP’s opposition leadership

c.       AAP presents the aforementioned, viable alternative, capable of harnessing voter disenchantment

 

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