Understanding the Rise of Raj Thackeray

This is not an endorsement of MNS or SS or BJP.  Just an attempt to dispassionately explain the growing popularity of Raj Thackeray.

Bottomline: Raj Thackeray is gaining support across Maharastra not because of his anti-outsider stand but in spite of it.

Raj Thackeray – SWOT analysis:

Strength:

Name recognition

Oratorical/communication skills

Understanding of Maharastra’s aspirational yearning and the Marathi manoos

Lack of a (poor) governance record

Uddhav Thackeray lacks necessary skills to counter Raj Thackeray

Has copied the language of Politics of Development of Narendra Modi (perhaps the best articulation of it outside of NaMo)

Weakness:

Lack of organization

Restrictive, anti-north agenda

Opportunity:

Growing urban population – easier to reach a larger audience (50% of population lives in urban centers)

Political vacuum with no credible leader in sight

Threats:

Sharad Pawar. Period.

Prognosis:

Raj Thackeray will keep growing and upon Balasaheb’s exit will usurp all or most of Sena’s constituency.  NCP will continue growing.

Congress’ footprint will continue to diminish and may settle within the sugar belt and Mumbai only.  In Mumbai, Congress is fast acquiring image of being a north indian party.  Even likes of Priya Dutt and Gurdas Kamat are complaining of this trend and opposing it.

BJP will be second biggest loser.

Rise of Raj Thackeray or rapprochement between Raj and Uddhav will be huge benefit for …..Narendra Modi.

10 years from now, Maharastra may well witness a direct fight between an Urban MNS and a rural NCP with BJP/Congress playing support roles.

Detailed analysis:

To understand Raj Thackeray’s rise over the past 4 years we must first understand the Marathi mindset and the prevailing conditions across Maharashtra.  Conditions, he has deftly exploited to his advantage.

The best illustration of the Marathi mindset is the recent issue between Mukesh Ambani’s reliance and farmers from Konkan region of Maharastra.  Reliance is easily the best buyer in terms of remuneration.  Reliance typically pays rates that exceed market prices so as to avoid hiccups and close the deal quickly.

Despite the handsome compensation and promises of rapid development of the region, farmers in this region refused to part with their lands.  Similar offers have been lapped up by farmers around other metropolitian regions such as Delhi, Bangalore, etc.

One can argue that this mindset restricts growth of the Marathi manoos.  But thats a different.  What this episode illustrates is the loyalty and love the average Marathi manoos harbors for his land, his culture and religion.

Most icons emerging from Maharastra tend to be on these lines – Political and cultural leaders.

But over the past 15 years, apart from Sachin Tendulkar, Maharastra has produced little of note.

Its leaders have little to show beyond land grabbing, farmer suicides and bowing to the Delhi Sultanate. 

A Maharastra built on legends of valor, courage, social reform and self-respect has slipped into a quagmire of hopelessness and seemingly terminable multifaceted decline.

Apart from the struggle for establishment of Maharastra, politically Maharastra has almost always aligned with the national mainstream.  Though there’s a clear sense of the Marathi Asmita, it has seldom manifested itself in the political discourse.

Even in the 1977 elections where Congress(I) was swept away in rest of India, Maharastra remained an exception and a Congress stronghold.

The 1995 Sena-BJP victory was thanks to Sharad Pawar’s desire to teach Congress a lesson.  He floated several independents that either won or eat into Congress votes, handing a victory to BJP-SS.  The Govt. was formed using 30-40 of these independents.

The constant revelations of how every party from Congress to NCP to Sena to BJP is corrupt beyond imagination, interested only in capturing power to rip open the fabric of the state to corner all the golden eggs, has left little to choose from.

The sense of despondency truly began with the fall of Pramod Mahajan.  Several in Maharastra had seen him as the leader who could achieve the long held but seldom mentioned collective Marathi dream: Capture the Delhi throne.

His fall and subsequent revelations of his degenerate lifestyle went against everything held dear by the aam Marathi manoos.  His pursuit of dirty money, women and wine insulted the very core of Marathi values.

The clearest indication of this despondency could be the falling voting percentages in major urban centers.  Marathi manoos has lost hope and has elected to sit it out.

One could argue that these conditions prevail all across India.  But in Maharastra these conditions are amplified given its surge even during decades of the Hindu rate of growth.  May be Maharastra was spoiled given the visionary leaders it was blessed with.  Leaders who created an environment conducive for business, developed the sugar cooperatives and leveraged these early successes to make Maharastra the capital for higher education in the 80s, power generation and infrastructure. 

The fall has been dramatic and in real time.

These factors have created a political vacuum of unprecedented proportions.  Couple this vacuum with a grudging envy for neighboring Gujarat which has within the same time frame achieved the unimaginable, and you have a recipe for a leader to step in and grab all the marbles.

Introducing Raj Thackeray:

In a crowded field how do you differentiate yourself?  And how do you win that differentiation within a short period of time.

RajT’s moves can be explained by 3 variables

1.       His promotion by Sonia-Sharad combine

2.       His own desire to quickly differentiate himself by using a cynical anti-outsider strategy

3.       Desire within Maharastra’s regional media to teach Sena a lesson

The targeting of a thorough gentleman like AmitabhB (who even Raj admits being his favorite star) has to be seen in this light.  It gave Raj instant recognition and created a platform from which to launch his fledgling outfit.

This anti north-Indian ploy is nothing but a gimmick to gain much needed political traction and it has achieved its goal.  It has handed power back to the Congress and triggered the process of Uddhav’s Shiv Sena.

However, it has firmly established Raj Thackeray as the sole custodian of that dormant Marathi asmita.

Maharastra is in for some very interesting times.