Sunday, October 29, 2017

Collapsing Pakistan - How PM Modi is Triggering a Crisis

83% of Dubai's residents are foreign born.  To a varying degree this demographic profile plagues most rich Arab countries.  But what does this have to do with the collapse Pakistan?  

A great deal.  Read on. 

Very early in his tenure, PM Modi undertook several steps to engage key muslim nations across the middle east.  Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Iran to name a few.  To the impatient right winger, NaMo was following the same appeasement script embraced by his predecessors:  Genuflect at the alter of Arabs, with the misguided hope that it would translate into goodwill and votes with India's muslims. 

In reality, PM Modi and his security advisor Ajit Doval were working to a long term plan:  To isolate and strangulate Pakistan, economically, diplomatically and militarily.  

Most Indian Muslims working in the middle east will readily confess to the startling reality of Muslim unity - there's none.  Non-Arab Muslims are treated like dirt.  

Non-locals are not allowed to own property in their name and businesses must be launched in partnership with a local 'sponsor'.  The threat of deportation, hangs like the domiciles' sword over their heads (compare this to how legal residents are treated in western nations).  

On the flip side, Arabs are legitimately afraid of non-Arabs drowning them with shear numbers and taking over their lands.  

In a strange contradiction Islam helps establish the legitimate claim of non-Arabs over Arab lands.  If (as Islam preaches) there are no nations, and hence, no boundaries what prevents non-Arab muslims from laying claim to Arab countries.  Given enough numbers non-Arab muslims could legitimately claim leadership of Islam, side-lining and eventually subduing Arabs.  

It is this fear that (partly) drives Arabs into keeping non-Arabs at arms length, on a tight leash.  And it is this fear that Team Modi has exploited. 

Arabs have reason to fear Pakistanis.  A 200 million strong nation, built exclusively on the idea of Islam's supremacy, can and does claim a right to lead Muslims of the world. 

Arabs on the other hand view Pakistanis as a conquered people.  Former Hindus, conquered by the sword of Allah.  

PM Modi has played on these fears to encourage Arabs to employ more Indian Muslims in lieu of their Pakistani counterparts.  Crashing oil prices have led to massive layoffs.  Saudi citizens need jobs and are being forced to work for the first time in a generation.  

This economic slowdown has resulted in layoffs with Pakistanis being the first to be put on the chopping block. Arabs prefer the more docile and subservient Indian & Bangladeshi Muslims.

Remittances from NRP represent Pakistan's single largest source of foreign exchange.  Stagnating or dipping remittances puts a severe burden on Pakistan's ability to service foreign debt, pay for imports, etc. 

Pakistan's economy rests on 3 pillars: 

1. Remittances 
2. Foreign Aid 
3. Exports 

Exports have hit an all time low.  A combination of competition and political instability have kept foreign investment at bay.  

Massive incentives given by the Indian government to textile exporters has led a huge losses for their Pakistani counterparts. 

Textiles are Pakistan's single largest industry, employing millions and bringing in much needed foreign exchange. 

On other 'aid' front, Team NaMo has convinced Uncle Sam to delay if not completely eschew supporting a teetering Pakistani economy via loans, waivers, etc. . 

Even Pakistan's owner - China - has refused to offer a bail out package beyond the deeply flawed CPEC scam. 

With all three avenues squeezed, Pakistan is approach a tipping point.  Pakistan holds just enough Forex to pay for 2-3 months of imports. 

Under these conditions it will be forced to seek foreign bail out packages, dictated by foreign lenders - lenders who are controlled by the West. 

Conditions for bailout will definitely include ending support to all forms of terror and could extend to the elimination of their nuclear program. 

But most importantly, it will leave Pakistan with few easy options.  End support to terror and the Jihadi backlash will trigger a civil war. 

Accept more Chinese support and mortgage an even bigger slice of Pakistan to the Dragon. 

Accept American terms and forever end its dream of capturing Kashmir. 

But the most likely scenario is the dismemberment of Pakistan.  And that seems to be a common goal both Uncle Sam and PM Modi are working toward. 




 

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