For several years now political junkies (yours truly included) have fretted over biggest question facing supporters of PM Modi - How will they stop the BJP in 2019?
Conventional political wisdom offered one answer: The MahaGhatbandhan (MGB).
But as the MGB has fizzled out two alternatives have emerged. Alternatives, BJP and Team NaMo can ignore at their own peril.
1. Non political actors/situations
2. Dilution of PM Modi's greatest asset - 'Personal Integrity' - by association
NOTE: As I have said in previous posts for BJP to lose, the opposition doesnt need to win. Restricting BJP to 220 would allow Congress and its clones to survive.
Non-Political Actors/Situations:
Anti-India forces have set in motion a wide range of strategies hoping one of them will work. The primary strategy is focused on dividing Indian/Hindu society.
It's also the one strategy which has found traction.
The Modi govt. has delivered corruption free 'mai-baap' governance. In doing so it has hurt traditional BJP vote banks and more importantly opened up space to fuel Upper caste grievance mongering.
Jats, Patels, Marathas....all have one thing in common - dominant castes demanding reservations.
These groups fit into a large strategy to expose India's fault lines and trigger a series of local conflicts.
Young Tamilians, for instance, are being indoctrinated with the notion that Tamil were never Indians/Hindus. They had a separate identity. The old AIT has been polished and reintroduced with some updates.
It would be a far cry to expect all these strategies to bear fruit. But that may not be the intention of the evil empire driving these anti-India forces.
The trick may be to create enough localized discontent to turn what is likely to be another 'Presidential' election into a sum of several localized electoral contests.
BJP lost 2004 partly due to local issues overwhelming a nationalized 'India Shining' campaign.
Left unaddressed, these local bush fires could grow into uncontrollable forest fires and consume BJP's hopes - one local election at a time.
Demands for reservations cannot be tackled one group at a time. And conceding reservations beyond the SC mandated 50% would spell disaster for the govt.
Instead BJP needs to leverage India's lethargic legal system to deflect these demands and buy time so as delay these agitations beyond 2019.
One way to do it is to refer the demands to a specially constituted bench of retired SC judges. The bench should be constituted around mid-2018. But the suggestion should be made around late 2017. This timeline would delay a judgement well beyond 2019 and neutralize the political facet of these demands.
Dilution of PM Modi's greatest asset - 'Personal Integrity'
May be this rant is a bit premature. But news of India's Most Corrupt joining the BJP keeps trickling in. From Narayan Rane to now Sharad Pawar.
Granted, having Pawar in the NDA camp would neutralize any chance of a viable MGB coming to fruition. But the cost is prohibitive. It undermines and weakens the one quality that has served as PM Modi impregnable shield from his first term as CM of Gujarat.
Furthermore, it dilutes BJP's anti-corruption plank and brings BJP-Congress closer to parity on the critical issue of clean governance.
It would be easy for the Congress and its presstitutes to resort to that old stratagem - Congress-BJP-Same-Same.
Successive election victories may have lulled BJP into political hubris. 2019 will be the biggest political battle (perhaps) the world has ever seen.
It will be a no-holds-barred war. By taking on friends like Rane-Pawar, BJP wont need enemies.
Conventional political wisdom offered one answer: The MahaGhatbandhan (MGB).
But as the MGB has fizzled out two alternatives have emerged. Alternatives, BJP and Team NaMo can ignore at their own peril.
1. Non political actors/situations
2. Dilution of PM Modi's greatest asset - 'Personal Integrity' - by association
NOTE: As I have said in previous posts for BJP to lose, the opposition doesnt need to win. Restricting BJP to 220 would allow Congress and its clones to survive.
Non-Political Actors/Situations:
Anti-India forces have set in motion a wide range of strategies hoping one of them will work. The primary strategy is focused on dividing Indian/Hindu society.
It's also the one strategy which has found traction.
The Modi govt. has delivered corruption free 'mai-baap' governance. In doing so it has hurt traditional BJP vote banks and more importantly opened up space to fuel Upper caste grievance mongering.
Jats, Patels, Marathas....all have one thing in common - dominant castes demanding reservations.
These groups fit into a large strategy to expose India's fault lines and trigger a series of local conflicts.
Young Tamilians, for instance, are being indoctrinated with the notion that Tamil were never Indians/Hindus. They had a separate identity. The old AIT has been polished and reintroduced with some updates.
It would be a far cry to expect all these strategies to bear fruit. But that may not be the intention of the evil empire driving these anti-India forces.
The trick may be to create enough localized discontent to turn what is likely to be another 'Presidential' election into a sum of several localized electoral contests.
BJP lost 2004 partly due to local issues overwhelming a nationalized 'India Shining' campaign.
Left unaddressed, these local bush fires could grow into uncontrollable forest fires and consume BJP's hopes - one local election at a time.
Demands for reservations cannot be tackled one group at a time. And conceding reservations beyond the SC mandated 50% would spell disaster for the govt.
Instead BJP needs to leverage India's lethargic legal system to deflect these demands and buy time so as delay these agitations beyond 2019.
One way to do it is to refer the demands to a specially constituted bench of retired SC judges. The bench should be constituted around mid-2018. But the suggestion should be made around late 2017. This timeline would delay a judgement well beyond 2019 and neutralize the political facet of these demands.
Dilution of PM Modi's greatest asset - 'Personal Integrity'
May be this rant is a bit premature. But news of India's Most Corrupt joining the BJP keeps trickling in. From Narayan Rane to now Sharad Pawar.
Granted, having Pawar in the NDA camp would neutralize any chance of a viable MGB coming to fruition. But the cost is prohibitive. It undermines and weakens the one quality that has served as PM Modi impregnable shield from his first term as CM of Gujarat.
Furthermore, it dilutes BJP's anti-corruption plank and brings BJP-Congress closer to parity on the critical issue of clean governance.
It would be easy for the Congress and its presstitutes to resort to that old stratagem - Congress-BJP-Same-Same.
Successive election victories may have lulled BJP into political hubris. 2019 will be the biggest political battle (perhaps) the world has ever seen.
It will be a no-holds-barred war. By taking on friends like Rane-Pawar, BJP wont need enemies.
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