Ever since China instigated the Doklam impasse a series of statements and actions coming out of Beijing have suggested an increasing sense of desperation creeping into China's behavior vis-a-vis India and the larger AfPak region.
The alacrity with which China has scaled its statements and diplomatic actions insinuates international steaks that go far beyond controlling India.
What may be at stake is the very perpetuation of CCP's economic model and in turn its political hold over the country.
The Belt Road Initiative (BRI) / OBOR
China's economic model rests on two pillars - Exports and Infrastructure spending. Both these pillars have floundered. Exports i.e. Labor arbitrage have been hit by increasing competition coming from cheaper labor markets such as Vietnam, India, Bangladesh, etc. On the other hand China's spending spree since 2008's financial crisis has burdened its banks with bone crushing debt.
As a percentage of GDP, China implemented the biggest Quantitative Easing program in the world. It was the only way it could sustain the much needed 6-7 % growth rate.
Chinese workers (unlike their Indian counterparts) dont take kindly to being laid off. Incidents of middle managers being lynched by angry workers have become routine so have worker suicides at brand name companies such as Foxconn.
China's communist mandarins fear democracy/social unrest and its potential to terminally disrupt their control over the country.
Though China's QE helped keep China's workers employed and pliant it resulted in ghost cities, malls and other superfluous assets.
These ghost cities have never been occupied and are seen as white elephants - decaying and serving as a reminder to the excesses of a growth-addicted Communist party.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uo0tvY_4PlM
China's corporate sector is an undecipherable maze of companies partially or completely owned by the government. The objective of all these entities is a singular focus on growth. By any means possible.
Local governments are given annual goals to meet growth objective with a wide mandate to borrow beg or steal to achieve their goals.
Such an arrangement not only breeds corruption but perpetuates a ecosystem which must be fed with additional opportunities just so it does not collapse.
The resulting excesses lead to a misallocation of resources with both corporate and govt. entities straddled with bone crushing debt.
After 9 years of unbridled spending China is now facing a debt crisis of unprecedented proportions. China is shielded from a debt crisis thanks to very high forex reserves and size as the world's second largest economy.
China is - to put it simply - too big to fail.
But the crisis facing CCP is of a different kind. Not of outright economic collapse (which is unlikely) but of a slowing economy triggering a domino effect which leads to social turmoil.
BRI is a grand scheme to get foreign countries to fuel the growth/construction of Chinese assets financed by Chinese credit and built by Chinese workers.
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is its first and most visible pilot project. China has tested this model in Turkemistan and Sri Lanka. Both countries have had to surrender land and assets to China in lieu of the massive debt they have been straddled with.
Voices in Pakistan (and elsewhere) have started uttering the dreaded 'C' word - Colonialism.
Jamaica will be China's first colony -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qBCRHcLH6NM
As this video indicates the similarities are startling. A ruling elite paid off by the Chinese govt. and co-opted to do China's bidding to convince their citizens to support and celebrate China's colonial ambitions.
The ruling elite participates in and profits from the asset boom leaving their citizens with debt and future Chinese ownership.
CPEC is the biggest and most audacious attempt. Its success/failure may influence the very future of the CCP.
When examined within this paradigm, China's Doklam desperation begins to make more sense.
As influential thinkers within Pakistan start alerting the larger population to dangers posed by CPEC, China is running up against a shortened timeline.
China is running out of time.
Chinese CPEC game plan is simple two-step program:
1. Build key pieces of CPEC (Coal fed power plants, highways, etc.)
2. Straddle Pakistan with debt and demand concessions
It is my belief that Pakistan will not see the $46-50 Billion promised. As soon as the debt burden reaches critical mass where Pakistan is unable to even service the debt, China will start rolling it and growing it so that Pakistan will be on the hook for a huge debt burden.
This debt burden will be legally binding. A debt ridden Pakistan will first concede Gilgit-Baltistan to China military.
And here's the kicker if India attacks POK, this legal agreement between China-Pak will make China a party to the dispute.
Chinese intelligence monitoring India's arms build up has come to the same conclusion as I did - India plans a major operation in POK.
An outright India attack would disrupt China's carefully laid plans.
China's Doklam adventure is designed to achieve multiple objectives chief among them - force India to delay its operation in POK giving China time to bring the aforementioned 2-step strategy to fruition.
But Chinese desperation may have had the opposite effect i.e. pushed India's hand by introducing a sense of urgency.
The next 5 years may ......
The alacrity with which China has scaled its statements and diplomatic actions insinuates international steaks that go far beyond controlling India.
What may be at stake is the very perpetuation of CCP's economic model and in turn its political hold over the country.
The Belt Road Initiative (BRI) / OBOR
China's economic model rests on two pillars - Exports and Infrastructure spending. Both these pillars have floundered. Exports i.e. Labor arbitrage have been hit by increasing competition coming from cheaper labor markets such as Vietnam, India, Bangladesh, etc. On the other hand China's spending spree since 2008's financial crisis has burdened its banks with bone crushing debt.
As a percentage of GDP, China implemented the biggest Quantitative Easing program in the world. It was the only way it could sustain the much needed 6-7 % growth rate.
Chinese workers (unlike their Indian counterparts) dont take kindly to being laid off. Incidents of middle managers being lynched by angry workers have become routine so have worker suicides at brand name companies such as Foxconn.
China's communist mandarins fear democracy/social unrest and its potential to terminally disrupt their control over the country.
Though China's QE helped keep China's workers employed and pliant it resulted in ghost cities, malls and other superfluous assets.
These ghost cities have never been occupied and are seen as white elephants - decaying and serving as a reminder to the excesses of a growth-addicted Communist party.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uo0tvY_4PlM
China's corporate sector is an undecipherable maze of companies partially or completely owned by the government. The objective of all these entities is a singular focus on growth. By any means possible.
Local governments are given annual goals to meet growth objective with a wide mandate to borrow beg or steal to achieve their goals.
Such an arrangement not only breeds corruption but perpetuates a ecosystem which must be fed with additional opportunities just so it does not collapse.
The resulting excesses lead to a misallocation of resources with both corporate and govt. entities straddled with bone crushing debt.
After 9 years of unbridled spending China is now facing a debt crisis of unprecedented proportions. China is shielded from a debt crisis thanks to very high forex reserves and size as the world's second largest economy.
China is - to put it simply - too big to fail.
But the crisis facing CCP is of a different kind. Not of outright economic collapse (which is unlikely) but of a slowing economy triggering a domino effect which leads to social turmoil.
BRI is a grand scheme to get foreign countries to fuel the growth/construction of Chinese assets financed by Chinese credit and built by Chinese workers.
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is its first and most visible pilot project. China has tested this model in Turkemistan and Sri Lanka. Both countries have had to surrender land and assets to China in lieu of the massive debt they have been straddled with.
Voices in Pakistan (and elsewhere) have started uttering the dreaded 'C' word - Colonialism.
Jamaica will be China's first colony -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qBCRHcLH6NM
As this video indicates the similarities are startling. A ruling elite paid off by the Chinese govt. and co-opted to do China's bidding to convince their citizens to support and celebrate China's colonial ambitions.
The ruling elite participates in and profits from the asset boom leaving their citizens with debt and future Chinese ownership.
CPEC is the biggest and most audacious attempt. Its success/failure may influence the very future of the CCP.
When examined within this paradigm, China's Doklam desperation begins to make more sense.
As influential thinkers within Pakistan start alerting the larger population to dangers posed by CPEC, China is running up against a shortened timeline.
China is running out of time.
Chinese CPEC game plan is simple two-step program:
1. Build key pieces of CPEC (Coal fed power plants, highways, etc.)
2. Straddle Pakistan with debt and demand concessions
It is my belief that Pakistan will not see the $46-50 Billion promised. As soon as the debt burden reaches critical mass where Pakistan is unable to even service the debt, China will start rolling it and growing it so that Pakistan will be on the hook for a huge debt burden.
This debt burden will be legally binding. A debt ridden Pakistan will first concede Gilgit-Baltistan to China military.
And here's the kicker if India attacks POK, this legal agreement between China-Pak will make China a party to the dispute.
Chinese intelligence monitoring India's arms build up has come to the same conclusion as I did - India plans a major operation in POK.
An outright India attack would disrupt China's carefully laid plans.
China's Doklam adventure is designed to achieve multiple objectives chief among them - force India to delay its operation in POK giving China time to bring the aforementioned 2-step strategy to fruition.
But Chinese desperation may have had the opposite effect i.e. pushed India's hand by introducing a sense of urgency.
The next 5 years may ......
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