The Target is Marathi Manoos

 #Kangana, #Sushant, #Bollywood, #Sena, #Aditya.....the cluster %$&# of cacophony would make a fish market green with envy.  

The early signs of a larger strategy behind the campaign came from Arnab's 'courageous' disrespect for the 50% owners of Mumbai - the Shiv Sena and the the Thackeray family (D Company being the other 50% owners).  

There was simply no way in which a journalist could use the language and demeanor for the Sena, sitting in their bastion without the tacit backing of a massive power source.  

That power source being Amit Shah and the Sangh Parivar. 

The Sangh had decided to not only teach Sena a lesson but to launch a final assault to permanently finish off the Sena. 

The shenanigans which India has witnessed over the past month are not a mere tamasha to humiliate Sena but to politically destroy Sena and its first family. 

Sena draws all its power from the love harbored for it by the Marathi Manoos.  That the high and mighty have bowed at the feet of Balasaheb gives the average Maharastrian a secret pleasure and remains a source of pride. 

That the rich and famous would genuflect and cower in fear at the mere grunt of the Tiger makes up for the 'humiliation' of having to cede ground to non-Maharastrians in their every day lives. 

Coupled with the Robinhood folklore of legendary middle leadership of the Sena have sealed Sena's votebank in Sena's pocket burrow. 

So it follows, that the the only way to undermine the Sena is to turn its core votebank against it.  

And the best way to achieve that goal is to expose Sena's betrayal of the values the Marathi Manoos holds dear to his/her heart. 

ModAmerica - Did China walk into a trap

As details of China's aggression in Galwan Valley have emerged two questions have perplexed experts and laymen alike. 

China has taken over strategic mountain top locations and brought in heavy construction equipment.  None of these actions could happen without Indian intelligence having noticed it.  Not on a barren terrain and in the age of satellite and drone saturation. 

So the logical second question comes up.  Why did Indians not react in a timely manner.  At the very least Indian Army could have moved in and taken up positions to freeze Chinese actions. 

The answers to these questions lie within NDA's political actions.  Having followed and tracked PM Modi for almost 20 years now, I can say this with the greatest of confidence that he does not make loud pronouncements.  And neither does his trusted deputy HM Amit Shah. 

But ever since Article 370 was scrapped and J&K trifurcated,  Amit Shah in particular, have gone to town on how they plan to take back POK.  India's DM Rajnath Singh has played up the intention as well. 

It made no real sense.  Why would you publicly declare your intention and surrender the element of surprise?  Why warn your enemy and help them prepare for a possible attack. 

A panicky Pakistan has gone into hyper preparation.  Moving assets closer to the border and freaking out at the mere sight of a MIG on the India side of the border. 

As you place all these pieces in place an interesting picture emerges.  Was the intention to bait China into taking some action and then using the 'attack' to justify a grand alliance with the US? 

There's no way India's political equations would allow such an alliance in peace time.  From the loony Left to the Hindutva Right, India has a huge number of skeptics vis-a-vis an American alliance.  Given America's unreliability and a use-and-discard policy it has adopted with former allies, this reticence is partly justified. 

However, it does not take into account the altered global and regional realities.  A Chinese attack was perhaps the only way India could justify an alliance and railroad its way over local political opposition. 

Indians as a people have always admired America and the two democracies are natural allies.  The large number of American CEOs of Indian descent is just one example of how seamlessly Indians fit in with the American way of life and the broader American ideals of freedom, justice and the pursuit of happiness. 

Galwan was the perfect way to push India into a long term grand alliance on the lines of the alliance Post-war Japan nurtured and constructed with the Americans. 

The alliance holds great promise beyond military cooperation.  American businesses fleeing from China could provide the same level of management, tech and financial expertise and support to Indian companies which they provided to China over the past 20 years without incurring the risk of IP theft and military threat. 

Indians would have no problem in trading prosperity for American Hegemony as long as America doesnt take India and Indian concerns for granted. 

As long as America leaves wiggle room for India to posture on issues pertaining to Iran, etc. an Indo-US alliance could prove as effective as the Marshall plan. 

A new world order is taking shape and history may recognize June 16th, 2020 as the date it was birthed on the slopes of Himalayan moutains in the Galwan valley.

Galwan - America the Joker in the Pack

Experts have given several reasons for America's public restrain on China's aggression in Ladakh.  

Why, it is argued, is America silent if China has emerged as enemy #1.  The reason is fairly straightforward.  A limited set back to India in its conflict with China fits perfectly into America's plans. 

A 'defeated' India with a highly publicized Chinese occupation in Ladakh will have few options other than to align completely with American interests.  No more non-alignment. 

More importantly, a Chinese 'victory' will neutralize India's domestic anti-American lobby.  From CPI to Urban Naxals and a section of the Sangh. 

Another major benefits accrues to the Americans for being hands-off at this juncture.  American business fleeing out of China would find an Indian society very open and susceptible to its charms. 

If played deftly, India could gain significantly from the emerging alignment of the new world order. 

Imagine, American sagacity and discipline married with Indian ingenuity. 

We could be the first alliance to master space travel, dismantle the Communist-Islamist alliance and usher in a 1000 years of peace. 

China - Galwan and Beyond

In almost any conflict, it is very easy to get drawn into the events at hand.  China's aggression in Ladakh is one such event.  The pundits are grappling for an explanation.  Why would China take the risk now, given the plethora of challenges it faces on multiple fronts.  

Indians (as would be expected) are chalking up this aggression to China's domestic weakness.  Or more importantly the supposed challenges Xi Jinping is facing within the CCP.   

This is wishful thinking.  Galwan happened not because China is weak but because Pakistan is at the weakest point in its history. 

As explained in earlier posts (http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2017/06/the-approaching-war-india-vs-pakistan.html)  Pakistan represents China's biggest strategic investment and the key to its super power ambitions beyond the South China Sea.  

Recent reports of the massive scale of corruption within the much celebrated CPEC project give us an insight into how comprehensively China has taken over Pakistan.  

This Chinese 'land grab' has coincided with Pakistan's descent into an economically failed state.  Even expat Pakistanis are refusing to invest in their country. 

Additionally, their Muslim allies across the Arab have sensed their beggarly economic status and have decided to abandon them.  Throwing small crumbs in their direction for old times sake. 

China now remains Pakistan's only dependable 'ally'. 

India's decision to abrogate Article 370 was never a one-off move.  It was part of a much larger strategic initiative to achieve multiple objectives: 

1. Take back POK 
2. End CPEC 
3. Cut off Chinese access to the Arabian Sea and through it the middle east 
4. Dismember Pakistan 
5. Establish land access to Afghanistan 

China cannot afford an Indo-Pak war.  Any such conflict will have 3 possible outcomes.  None of which favor China. 

1. Pakistan is defeated and India takes back POK 
2. India makes limited gains but stalls CPEC and all the assets China wants to build 
3. A limited, localized nuclear exchange which, again, permanently destroys CPEC and Pakistan as a Vassal state, a West Coast North Korea if you will.

Much has been made of how India (under Chinese threat) is moving closer to the United States.  But actually in equal measure, it is the USA which is rolling out the red carpet for India given its emerging Cold War with China. 

Pakistan's dependence on American military hardware makes it a sitting duck in the event of a war that extends beyond the first week or two.  Over the past several years, reports have emerged of how Pakistan is cannablising its own F-16s for parts to keep their main stay fighter jets in war readiness.  They have also sought help from Turkey (a NATO ally with its own F-16 fleet) in this regard. 

If Pakistan's main defenses are on such tenterhooks, what does it say about their other military assets.  Tanks, Howitzers, Transport aircraft, wouldnt all these be facing the same shortages.  Over the years China has supplemented some of this Pakistani hardware with their own jets and other military assets.  But these have never been battle tested. 

The J-10, introduced as recently as 2007 is based old Soviet designs and apart from Chinese vassal state has found few takers on the international market. 

China cannot possibly replace Pakistan's aging American hardware accumulated over several decades.  The cost would be staggering. 

Given these factors, China's decision to engage India at Galwan can be explained by only one insight - Preemptive Strike. 

Prevention, in the Chinese strategic doctrine, has emerged as the primary strategy.

China wants to prevent an Indian attack at all costs.  Galwan wasnt about land grab or salami cuts or any of the conventional reasons belted out by experts. 

It has been executed to scare Indians into not attacking Pakistan. 

Once we understand this, we can now take the appropriate measures to counter China. 

And the best way to counter China is to play possum and take this Chinese humiliation while continuing with the preparation for a war with Pakistan. 

There will never be a better chance to permanently and irreversibly counter India's situation with Pakistan than in the next 6 to 12 months. 

Take even 20 kms of strategic depth within POK and Pakistan can do little but witness its own disintegration. 

India should sit back, keep preparing and attack Pakistan at a time and place of our choosing.  The stars are aligned.  Har Har Mahadev. 

Beware Brahmins - Hinduism in Peril

Those who have followed this blog and yours truly on social media, know how much I detest the caste system.  There's nothing 'glorious' about it.  And contrary to what caste supremacist believe, caste system did not save Hinduism.  It was the primary reason for Hindus being enslaved by barbarian after barbarian.   

That it has survived is thanks to great warriors like Chatrapati Shivaji Maharaj who put everything on the line to save this great source of knowledge and wisdom we call Hinduism. 

Interestingly enough, the only (yes the only) true Hindu King to ever rule any part of India during 1000 years of slavery was humiliated by the said caste system.  No Brahmin priest would perform his coronation ceremony cause he didnt belong to the right Kshatriya caste.  But I digress. 

Let us discuss the central point of this post.  Brahmins are under a systematic and well orchestrated attack.  With the primary objective being to subdue and eventually (either physically or ideologically) neutralize them and hasten the demise of Hinduism. 

From the attacks in Palghar to the well coordinated campaign across media platforms, Brahmins are being painted as the enemy.  The oppressors.  Who must be made to pay for the crimes of their ancestors.  

This is the same strategy adopted globally by both Muslims and Christians for two millennia.  Eliminate the clergy of any faith and the faith falls apart.  From South American Aztecs and Incas to Egypt to Kashmiri and Goan Brahmin priests - All have been subjected to the same atrocities.  Butchered in the most heinous fashion.  You cut of the head and the body falls apart.  

Both Islam and Christianity are particularly insecure about their congregational faiths.  Unless the faithful are not forced into the pews or on to the mats they will start thinking for themselves and turn away from their respective faiths.  It is no surprise that Christianity fell apart in Europe once the followers stopped attending Church. 

It is for this reason that despite the clear danger posed by Covid, leaders of both religions were insistent on hosting their weekly gatherings.  

Given this dynamic, they extrapolate the same centrality to Brahmins within Hinduism and see them as the biggest road block to finally overpower and eventually extinguish Hinduism.  

Kill/Neutralize the Brahmin and the count down begins. 

Brahmins in particular and Upper Caste Hindus in general are partly to blame for this state of affairs.  There's no doubt a sense of superiority within Upper caste Hindus who simply consider their birth to place them on a higher perch.  Giving them a permanent membership to an exclusive club. One that is not open to their lower caste brethren. 

 Over the years I have observed this sense of 'lower castes being lesser Hindus' permeate across India and this divide and segregation has created a fertile hunting ground for evangelical ideologies. 

We have left our gates wide open for the barbarians to waltz right through.  Is it any surprise that successive, minuscule, inferior invaders have come to India, conquered large swaths and ruled over us. 

The Battle of Koregaon which Dalits celebrate is actually the direct consequence of caste divide.  Chatrapati Shivaji Maharaj was the first to recruit Mahars (Dalit untouchables) into his army.  He never discriminated based on caste.  The fledgling army he conjured up at the tender age of 16 was comprised primarily of mavale - the local tribal/agrarian community.  The recent movie - Tanhaji - was based on the life of Shivraya's ablest general - Tanhaji Malasure - belonging to the Koli caste. 

And that little army the Chatrapati built would one day take down two Islamic Empires - First Adil Shah then Aurangzeb.  Moreover it would keep the Portugese in check and neutralize their proselytizing agenda. 

This is not to suggest that Maharaj was able to dissolve caste differences or eliminate caste as a factor, but in deeply divided society, through shear charisma, leadership and an appeal to 'Hindavi Swaraj - Hindu Self rule' - he was able to unite Hindus into a lethal force. 

It helped that his complete selflessness and willingness to repeatedly place life, limb, sons and daughters on the line, galvanized Hindus as a society for the first time in their history as a slave nation. 

Sadly soon after the Peshwa taking over the reins of the Maratha Empire, this push toward egalitarianism gradually disappeared.  The Mahar regiment was disbanded.  A war hardened military force was discarded for the sole 'crime' of belonging to a lower caste.  These Mahars soon switched sides and became the very back bone of the British army. 

The rest is history.  

The enemies of Hinduism have understood this history.  They have realized that the only way to destroy Hinduism is by playing up the fault lines.  Fault lines that are innate to Hindu society.  

Sadly, Hindus continue to provide unlimited fodder to feed this strategy.  I recently saw a tweet (since deleted) by an educated, upper caste, NRI who made the following claim:  "Only those who have had an Upanayana ceremony can call themselves Hindus". 

My jaw hit the floor when I read this tweet.  Chatrapati Shivaji Maharaj did not wear this thread.  His Upanayana ceremony was conducted only as a prerequisite to his Coronation.  

Let that sink in.  The greatest Hindu Warrior King - Without whose courage, sacrifices and infinite wisdom, Hinduism wouldnt exist - WASNT A TRUE HINDU.  

As per this belief (and I'm afraid a very large number of Hindus share this belief)  "No Upanayana - Not a Hindu" - Chatrapati Shivaji Maharaj wasnt a true Hindu. 

It is this Caste Supremacist belief that must be butchered and buried.  Either Hindus unite and Hinduism survives or Hindus spend their egos and their energies in preserving the Caste System and perish. 

The choice cannot be clearer. 
  

Kejriwal 2.0 - Mr. Natwarlal Could be a contender .......in 2029.

Delhi Elections have been a revelation, not in terms what each contender has done, but rather in terms of what each hasnt done. 

Natwarlal has exhibited the one quality he has lacked as a fledgling politician i.e. to learn from his mistakes and make a course correction. 

For almost a decade of his existence as a political contender/public figure, Natwarlal has railed against every political leader.  From Sheila Dikshit to Sonia Parivar to NaMo. 

His most virulent hatred has been reserved for India's beloved PM.  And it has backfired.  Post 2019, has however, seen a different Natwarlal.  One who has shown great discipline in avoiding any mention of the PM.  Infact, going out of his way to selectively support BJP's agenda by simply being silent. 

Natwarlal has also borrowed a leaf from BJP's book.  His Delhi governance model has followed this strategy to near perfection 

https://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2011/06/understanding-indian-electorate.html

BJP has done the same with great success - housing, Jan Dhan, Mudra, etc.  But Natwarlal doing it in Delhi gives it the kind of visibility that is worth its weight in gold.  And it is this strategy coupled with his new found discipline which could propel him to the national stage as a contender.  

Many hurdles remain and his very rise could become the milestone around his political neck.  But a path, albeit uncharted, is now faintly visible.   

1. Congress has essentially outsourced the job of stopping BJP to AAP.  If in the run up to 2024, Congress and others see a ray of hope in projecting Natwarlal as PM candidate, they may make the ultimate 'sacrifice' and support Kejriwal as the corruption-free, Muslim friendly face of the Opposition. 

2. UP, MP, Rajasthan elections will be held in the run up to 2024 LS elections, BJP victories in these states are likely to fuel deep fear and anxiety - on a scale, big enough for Natwarlal to project himself as the Messiah 

3. Natwarlal has stumbled upon the formula to stop BJP - stop supporting anti-India rhetoric, let media allies do the talking, appease Muslims by using proxies to support their agenda and deliver on corruption-free mai baap better than BJP

4. I initially felt Maya/Mamta/Akhilesh and others would not allow Natwarlal to emerge.  But much as NaMo rose by leading a 'Presidential' campaign which side stepped the need for coalition politics, Kejriwal could emerge as a contender by going directly to the people. 

5. Threshold for Kejriwal is much, much lower.  50 seats may be enough for Kejriwal to do a Deve Gowda.

How does BJP counter these moves: 

1. Double down on Corruption-free, Mai Baap 

2. Go full throttle on anti-corruption, force Kejriwal to defend his potential supporters - Pawar, Sonia, etc. 

3. Revive the economy, by all means possible. SEZs, Medical Tourism, massive infrastructure spending, etc. 

4. Increase MP - local funds from Rs. 2 Cr to Rs. 20 Cr. - so changes can be implemented at local levels to connect Central schemes directly with BJP 

I'll update this blog with more ideas. 

But its Game on.  BJP better not fall asleep at the wheel. 

4. 

Citizenship Amendment Bill - The Unceremonious Death of Sickularism

As accepted, CAB has triggered sickulars across India.  Just as they were coming to terms with the scrapping of Article 370, Team NaMo has delivered another knock out blow.  

PM Modi is on a roll.  God Bless Him.  

Neither BJP's actions nor Sickular reactions should come as a surprise to even the casual observer of goings on in India.  What is, however, a big surprise is the muted response from the usual suspects. SP, BSP, Nitish, NCP and even the Congress have paid little more than lip service to the arguments opposing this bill. 

It suggests a fundamental, tectonic shift taking place in the thinking within India's secular political establishment.  

The past 10 years have witnessed a complete dynastic takeover of Indian politics.  But this takeover has had to contend with a growing list of claimants from within the family ranks. Akhilesh has his uncles and cousins, Pawar has his nephews and grand nephews, etc. 

Within this dynamic, India's sickular establishment must now come to terms with a threat that will only grow exponentially in the coming years. 

The rise of the Muslim vote.  Heretofore, Muslims have been a useful political tool.  Giving their votes en bloc to those who succumb to the worse elements within Islam's extremist leadership.  

However a rapidly growing Muslim population is likely to yield home grown parties such as Owaisi's which can legitimately claim that they have reached a critical mass so as to win 30-40 Lok Sabha seats on their own. 

A second possibility is the rise of competing Muslim parties which will further sideline sickular established parties and only bargain with them in post poll scenarios. 

Both scenarios present a disturbing choice to Sonia, Pawar and their ilk.  

In the current paradigm, Sickular parties begin with a head start, a handicap if you will.  The dedicated 15-20% muslim vote allows them an easy path to victory.  

If this vote bank is no longer available to them, their chances of ever returning to power with a comfortable majority are slim to none.  A fragmented govt with squeeze out the close family members giving rise to competing rival parties laying claim to a common family legacy.  Shiv Sena/MNS being a good example. 

Moreover, the rise of Muslim parties will drive Hindus to unite as a vote bank.  BJP would be the sole beneficiary of this consolidation. 

The muted, almost comatose response of sickular parties must be taken as a tacit approval.  Pawar/Sonia and Co need the CAB as much as the BJP. 

BJP now has a silent ally in its war on Islamism.  Dont be surprised if these parties 'support' BJP when voter lists are purged off of illegal Bangladeshi infiltrators.  

Sickularism is dying an unceremonious death.  This is the greatest victory of PM Modi and his team. 

The BJP is Losing........

Results of LS 2009 elections dealt a body blow to what little hope the Hindu Right harbored to save their god forsaken country.  The gleeful expressions on faces of Congress' darbaris would come to haunt Hindus for the rest of their lives.  It was the lowest point for BJP and the larger Sangh Parivar.  The defeat was even greater than the shock defeat of 2004.  2009 meant Sonia's agenda was well established and India had irreversibly endorsed the path of pseudo secularism.  2009 was the culmination of a series of stumbles beginning with LKA's leftward shift to PramodM's assassination and its ugly fallout. 

India's Right Wing was truly and soundly defeated.  It would seem it was safe to assume that Congress and/or its many regional clones would extend their control over all levers of power and in due course of time decimate what little was left of India's Hinduness. 

But as Sonia and her darbaris celebrated one more foreign invader ruling over India, they missed two important facts.  

1) Though BJP+ was decimated, their vote bank was intact.  It hadnt switched sides.  
2) LKA's last hurrah would yield space to new leadership, untainted by the ghosts of the past, allowing BJP to unload its baggage and make a fresh start 

Watching the results of Haryana/MH coupled with the close call in Gujarat, one cant help but draw parallels between Congress' post 2009 smug arrogance and BJP's misplaced confidence circa 2019. 

All three states should be natural Hindutva strongholds.  MH and Haryana have strong local leaders with a spotless reputation. 

In all three states, Opposition was comatose with no real state leadership, massive infighting, weak or absent organization and most importantly no real agenda - positive or negative. 

Despite these headwinds faced by the opposition, BJP faced a close call in Haryana and in MH has come to depend on a schizophrenic ally.  

Something isnt adding up.  Lets try to make sense of it. 

1. BJP is NaMo and NaMo is BJP.  Though this works wonders in LS elections, eventually, the law of diminishing returns will kick in.  Two forces - if aligned at the right time - could dent NaMo's appeal:  
1. A clean leader rises up from within opposition ranks.  (Note:  Kejriwal had the potential to be such a clean leader, but he was too stupid and too infatuated with NaMo to ever pose a challenge - he's just not a 'Lambi race ka Ghoda') 
2.  A scandal close to NaMo's inner circle engulfs BJP - Jay Shah, for example, getting tainted by betting infested IPL
2. BJP's core support base may be driven by Hindutva agenda but the incremental vote which has propelled BJP to 303 LS seats is driven by economic concerns.
3. BJP has done a stellar job controlling inflation but an aspirational India is demanding more. 
4. BJP/NaMo are now competing with their own commitments and not the increasingly distant sins of Congress+
5. If an organizationally decimated Opposition could almost humble the BJP's well oiled electoral war machine, a close call in 2024 is a real possibility 
6. Having opposition ruled states undermines PM's agenda and makes the delivery of central schemes patchy at best (Ayushman Bharat for instance) 
7. BJP's good intentions are hurting the aam admi - even though they may be put in place to protect and benefit the aam admi.  New Road safety law is a great example.  Such schemes must be put in place after govt. has done its part of improving road conditions, installing road safety technology.  

Following are the some humble suggestions from someone who has never wavered in his belief in PM Modi. 

1. In the run up to 2007 Gujarat polls, then CM Modi made a verifiable pitch to Gujarati voters.  He said "on every corner of every village/city, you will see signs of development/progress.  A new bus stand, a freshly paved street, a new water connection, etc.  I'm bringing progress to your door step".  BJP has perfected booth level campaigning, it must now perfect booth level economic development.  
2. By its very nature, Prime Ministership requires its occupant to focus on the 'macro' and not get caught up in the 'micro'.  Macro policies aka attracting investment, improving ease of doing business, etc. should be the focus but PM Modi may run out of time waiting for benefits of these monumental structural shifts to trickle down to the aam admi.  The common man wants solutions now, he has waited 70 years.  There's no reason why macro and micro cannot go hand-in-hand or in parallel.  The two arent mutually exclusive.  
3. Focus on the basket.  The Modi sarkar needs to identify the top 5-10 items that every Indian needs and place a laser focus on them.  This is not to suggest that the 11 to 50 ranked items can be ignored.  But showing tangible progress on these fundamental items will go much further and cement their hold on power beyond the next election cycle. 
4. Go public with the mess in the banking sector.  Explain to the aam admi how India's preferred 'Business Model' was to set up companies only to use them as a ruse to bride bank officials and politicians to borrow large sums from public sector banks and then keep rolling the debt.  Take India into confidence on how real economic boom will be ushered in when this old Business model of loot is replaced with a real economic model based on fair and transparent policies

Hope BJP is still receptive to ideas/suggestions from its life long supporters. 

Towards a New Indian Economy

Almost a decade back I had explained PM Modi's economic doctrine (see link below).  In a nutshell it could be described as providing a corruption free Mai-baap sarkar i.e. Corruption free socialism. 

And it worked wonders for him - first in Gujarat and then at the national level.  

Since winning a massive mandate in 2019, PM Modi has surprised supporters and opponents alike, by the general drift he has seemingly allowed to creep into India's economy.  

His legendary political reflexes are conspicuous by their absence.  One could argue that scrapping Articles 370 and 35A had the govt. preoccupied with a matter critical to India's safety and her future. 

The one piece that has remained out of place in India's slumping economic story is Narendra Damodardas Modi.  Having followed his every action in great detail, his calm, hands off approach seems baffling. 

There are two conclusions to draw from India's economic drift (it's not a crisis yet). 

1. PM Modi is out of touch with reality and India's slumping economy is a function of his lack luster leadership or 
2. PM Modi is laying the ground work for a tectonic shift in India's economic landscape 

I have no doubt it is the latter.  Allow me to explain. 

To establish a truly market driven economy, India must rid itself of the other side of dynasty driven politics i.e. Crony Capitalism (CC).  

Dynastic politics and Crony capitalism are two sides of the same coin.  One cannot survive without the other. Both feed off of each other and one cannot survive the other.  Left untouched, CC has the potential to engineer a revival of dynasties in the future. 

Consider the following lesson from history.  Indira Gandhi was driven out by voters, her come back was largely due to the inept handling of governance by the Hodge podge alliance that replaced her.  But what fueled her phoenix like rise was the support of India's foremost Crony Capitalist aka Dhirubhai Ambani. 

Political Dynasties and CC work hand in hand.  They have deep relationships.  For instance, some very big Politicians not only gather funds from said CC but enjoy significant stakes in these businesses.  There's a reason why Sharad Pawar cannot be touched.  Through various benami fronts he holds significant stakes in top Indian companies.  

To break this stranglehold, PM Modi is draining the very financial resources which sustain these CC entities.  The timing (as always) is perfect.  It may take 2-3 years for these entities to be weakened to a point where they can no longer prevent green shoots from emerging, green shoots i.e. new industrial power houses who play by the rules and do not subvert the system to create quasi monopolies, duopolies and oligopolies. 



p.s. PM Modi has taken a similar strategy to destroy dynasties (https://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2014/07/how-namo-will-destroy-dynasties-without.html)

Mai Baap Sarkar aka Corruption Free Socialism https://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2011/06/understanding-indian-electorate.html

BJP - The New Congress (or is it?)

Modiuddin, 2nd Manmohan, are but a few pejoratives toss around by angry Hindutva's social media warriors.  And though their reactions may be justified at some level, they are misplaced. 

Scores of BJP activits and Hindus are being attacked via systematic campaign by Islamic social radicals (ISR).  From Love Jihad to Cow smuggling to temple desecration and systematic ethnic cleansing Hindus remain at the receiving end of these barbaric acts. 

And the irony of it all is that Hindus are being portrayed as aggressor, the intolerant, the communal.  

It is but natural that BJP supporters would unleash their anger against the first truly Hindu ruler to occupy Delhi's throne in 700 years. 

But their angry reaction is emblematic of all that is wrong with Hindus and helps explain why Hindus have remained victims for centuries.  

 There's an old saying in Marathi "Shivaji parat janma la yava, pan sezarachai gharat" - Shivaji should be reborn, but in the neighbor's family." 

Indians in general and Hindus in particular, expect someone else to do the heavy lifting, the dirty work.  They will not lift a finger beyond voting and screaming about it. 

If Hinduism is under severe attack, Hindus themselves are partly to blame for their plight. 

Few of those unleashing their rage at PM Modi, provide any feasible solutions.  What do they expect the PM to do?  Kill 25 crore Muslims?  

Ethnically cleanse Muslims out of India?  If they even consider such a solution, they deserve the cold shoulder BJP is giving them. 

But BJP does have long term solutions and is quietly working towards achieving them.  The very nature of this strategy is that it has to follow legal process so as to meet not only Indian constitutional statutes but also accepted international norms. 

Take for example two key solutions which will help India restore geographical and demographic balance back in favor of Hindus. 

The appointment of his most trusted general - Amit Shah - as Home Minister is the first step in achieving these solutions. 

1. Kashmir:  PM Modi has initiated the process to redrawing electoral boundaries so that seats in J&K are distributed as per population density and not in favor of Muslim majority Kashmir and against Jammu and Ladakh.  Such an effort will most likely lead to the first Hindu CM of J&K who can initiate the process of full integration with India.  Such a line would ensure completely legality of the process and make it beyond reproach both domestically and internationally. 

2. NRC:  The process to identify illegal aliens (primarily from Bangladesh) and deporting them would do wonders for urban India and reduce the threat of a demographic invasion significantly.  HM Shah has already declared that NRC will be applied nationwide and the process has been initiated. 

Unlike Internet warriors, PM Modi and his team have to come up with real, tangible solutions.  

The PM could offer lip service, condemn killing of Hindus, or go into his Gujarat mode, but none of these would bring any real change on the ground.  

Moreover, making such seemingly partisan statements would bring a swift international backlash and needlessly hurt India's carefully cultivated standing with key allies like Iran and America. 

So before keyboard warriors stage a collective walkout from the ranks of BJP supporters, they should give PM Modi a chance.  He wont jump ship and become a congressi.  He's just cut from a different cloth. 

PM's Muslim Outreach: Strategy and Rising Hindu Backlash

Within the first 18 months of his first tenure as PM, NaMo did the unthinkable.  He invited Nawaz Sharif to his swearing-in and worst of all, went unannounced to Pakistan to hug the same Nawaz as a show of personal friendship.  All this despite Pakistan's well proven status as India's worst nightmare. 

Core BJP supporters (me included) were disappointed and deeply hurt, to say the least.  But somewhere deep down most of us knew we only had to trust the man.  He wouldnt betray us.  He had eschewed wearing the skull cap.  He was our one man army. 

As more of his tenure unfolded the riddle explained itself.  PM Modi was buying time.  To fix India's economy, to fix her eviscerated intelligence network and replenish her military reserves. 

And once he had his pieces in place he pounced.  Sending Pakistan into a tail spin, from which it may never recover. 

As the media tom-toms NDA2's biggest muslim outreach, Hindu India is up in arms.  The outrage is pouring out - 'Modiuddin', 'Nehru'....are only some of the lesser monikers doing the round. 

To these I say 'have patience' my fellow Internet Hindus.  Your myopia is now legendary. And when it comes to NaMo you have always had to eat your words. 

So here's what could be the real strategy behind the Muslim outreach (in order of importance):  

1. Liberate Muslim Women:   Islam like most other religions has 3 key weaknesses - Independent Women, Apostates and Shias.  Promote these to achieve a critical mass and the religion will cross a point of no return.  It is no wonder that the religion puts such emphasis on the control and subjugation of women.  From what muslim women wear, to who can see their faces, to what the study....everything is tightly controlled.  Much like other conservative societies, when women find independence the old order collapses.  Speak to any conservative Muslim and you get the feeling that they understand this weakness.  Muslim women most resemble African slaves.  Controlled, subjugated and kept in line by house negros aka other Muslim women.  

Educating Muslim women is the primary aim of the new policy.  But it cannot be blatantly obvious.  Hence the inclusion of Muslim men.  Even if 1 in 1000 Muslim girls graduating from these education initiatives find a voice the resulting fissures would shake global islam to its very core. 

2. Diluting hold of Madarassas:  Imagine reading the Koran at 9 am and STEM subjects at 10 am.  The contrast is bound to engender deep doubts in the minds of even the most devout and obedient students.  Basic human curiosity would then come in direct conflict with religious indoctrination and once again compel students to question Islam's teachings:  Flat earth, flying horses, etc. 

Much as rise of science and technology have devastated Western Christianity so will teaching STEM subjects force muslim students to question their beliefs. 

One may ask how come Hindu scientists remain a devout lot.  Well that is because Hinduism is never forced.  Its willingness to accept logical challenges to its doctrine have shielded it and in fact enhanced its value in the eyes of its followers. 

Islam being an all-or-nothing proposition, even the slightest challenge is likely to cause deep fissures.  Fissures which may lead to its eventual dilution and demise. 

3. Hindu Vedic Schools:  President G W Bush launched something called 'Faith based Initiatives' where in state funds were funneled to church organizations to support their charity work.  Which as nothing but the blatant promotion of Christianity.  But by keeping it avowedly faith neutral GW could help his Christian organizations by throwing a few crumbs at non-Christian religious orgs. 

PM Modi's strategy may be on similar lines.  Now when his govt. announces Vedic Schools or supports Hindu initiatives, few could oppose them.  It is another trap.  Much as Ganga Bachao Andolan could not be opposed by anti-Hindu forces, a pro Hindu education policy would render all opponents impotent now that PM Modi has supported  massive initiative to educate Muslims. 

So my fellow Internet Hindus, cure your myopia and let the man do his job.   He's the best there's ever been. 

Rise of Priyanka in 2024

Congress' 2019 campaign made no sense from the get go.  After winning a morale boosting victory in December, Congress lost the plot. What seemed like a easy 120-140 seats and a shot at the top job, Congress seems to be fighting to survive and keep upstarts from usurping what little is left of the Congress. 

Congress started by peddling a dream i.e. The MahaGhatBandhan (MGB) to take on the Mighty NaMo-AmSh combo. 

And everything seemed to be falling in place.  But in a few short weeks reality seemed to have caught on.  A MGB was only possible if Congress ceded significant territory to accommodate partners in key states. 

Doing this would be prove to be the last nail in Congress' coffin.  With every 2-bit regional satrap salivating over the possibility of pulling a Deve Gowda, Congress was caught in a bind.  

Stitch up a national level MGB and defeat the BJP or concede defeat to BJP and live to fight another day.  And Congress strategists have decided to go with the latter. 

Enter PriyankaV (PV).  

Pappu is least interested politics.  Like most Babalog he's in it to protect his ill gotten wealth, which only political power can protect. 

PV seems more passionate for the job and given her religious upbringing, sees politics as an extension of religious crusade as proposed by the holy father. 

Pappu and his team has not realized that his time is up.  This is his last election.  Either he steps aside or becomes a figure head.  In either case the power moves to PV post May 23. 

Team PV has done the right political calculation.  In their mind the best scenario is a severely fragmented mandate with NaMo as head of a very weak coalition govt. 

There's no way she would want an Akhilesh or a Tej Pratap or even a Kanahiya kumar grow stronger and permanently wipe out Congress from the Hindi Heartland. 

It would not be a surprise if PV was behind all attempts to form local alliances across India between relevant regional parties such as AAP, SP, BSP, etc. 

Every opposition leader has invested heavily in anti-NaMo campaign.  A resounding NaMo win will discredit every leader from Akhilesh to RajT.  Which in turn will create a massive political vacuum in opposition ranks.  And here's where PV will make her move.  To become the crusading woman who  will take on NaMo.  

The fulcrum around which a long term alliance could be built.  With the Muslim-Dalit-Bramhin  (MDB) votebank as its bedrock. 

BJP must do one thing right of the bat.  Define PV as the Queen Of Corruption.  The power which allowed Robert to become a billionaire. 

Force her into a reactive mode from the get got.  Unleash the legal hounds on her and keep her in a state where everything she says reminds voters of her role in the big loot. 

Going soft on her could prove disastrous in 2024.  UPA scams will be a distant memory by then and NaMo may be considering retirement or at the very least a massive war of succession will be underway within the BJP. A war to occupy that coveted #2 spot. 

In that backdrop, if PV has been allowed to emerge as the face of the opposition, she could become a real threat in 2024.  Most regional satraps will be old and retired or gone.  SharadP, Babu, Maya, etc. would be well past their prime with no successor in place. 

All factors aiding the emergence of PV as the prime (if not the sole) inheritor of opposition space. 

BJP cannot afford a formidable leader of opposition i.e. PV to occupy the space and take India by storm. Ignore her at your own peril BJP. 

p.s. I had maintained from day one that Pappu was pappu and would never emerge as real threat.  PV is a different cup of tea

And so it Begins - Gazwa-e-Hind and its implications for China

One would expect the long awaited Mother of all Wars - Gazwa-e-Hind to begin with a bang.  Fire and Brimstone, Cannons and War Cries.  Instead we have witnessed an informal declaration of war in a relative backwater of the region - Colombo, Sri Lanka. 

What has baffled all of us and what seems to make little sense is this: why would ISI (make no mistake, this was an ISI operation, with IS providing the necessary cover to avoid an international backlash) pick Sri Lanka (if not an ally, a neutral entity in the region).  

Moreover, why pick on a minuscule Christian minority.  

The answer is simple:  Pakistan, facing imminent economic meltdown and a potential balkanization has decided to up the ante and drown India and the region in an endless wave after wave of Islamic attacks. 

Gazwa-e-Hind has begun. 

The sub-continent is being primed to become another Syria.  And therein lies Pakistan's only hope to destroy India. 

Certain factors are clearly in Pakistan's favor.  An undivided subcontinental India from Afghanistan to Burma has 45% Muslim representation.  Almost all of it Sunni.  That demographic advantage is the only real leverage Pakistan enjoys, in addition to the Islamic bomb. 

But the Islamic bomb would destroy as many Muslims as non-muslims, rendering it of very little use.

What we're witnessing is the start of a continental scale, asymmeterical war which would dwarf anything the world has witnessed in Iraq over the past 20 years. 

Even educated, prosperous Muslims across the subcontinent view themselves as victims.  This is the preferred psychological state of Muslims across all geographies.  #GrievanceMongering is built into the very fabric of Islam. 

It is this very attitude which fuels Muslim men (and some women) to wage a war against Infidels. 

Pakistan's calculation is sound.  

As Predicted in these two earlier pieces Pakistan has few real options:  

https://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2015/06/pakistan-is-screwed-heres-why.html

https://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2016/08/chinese-acquisition-and-balkanization.html

Pakistan is on life support.  ISI has decided upon a scorched earth strategy.  "If we drown into non-existence, then so will India" seems to be the prevailing wisdom inside the twisted, bigoted minds of Pakistan's leadership. 

Despite their public support for China, and despite the restraint shown by Pakistan's mullah military leadership, it must hurt them deeply, to watch the disdain with which China treats Pakistan and its own muslims. 

Muslims are most touchy about their women.  Islam goes to extraordinary lengths to preserve the imagined 'chastity' of Muslim women.  

To watch Chinese men come to Pakistan in droves, propelled by their lust for Pakistani women, surely cuts deep to the bones. 

China is also acquiring Pakistan at a steady pace.  Just as India is consolidating its own economic future and is poised to break through the shackles of poverty and uneven, anemic economic growth. 

All said and done, Pakistan can choose to sit back and watch its 'Country of the pure' become a footnote in history, watch as its dream of a Green crescent stretching from Arabia to Indonesia, evaporate right in front of its eyes, or it can ignite an inferno. 

An inferno, which will consume the subcontient and lead to a final battle between Muslims and infidels.  A battle they hope to win given the aforementioned demographic edge they now enjoy. 

BalaKot and Beyond - NaMo's spectacular win

1. Paki economy hit - FDI investment wont show up
2. Space created between all out war and nuke threshold i.e. target terror camps and terrorists
3. Win universal support from West, Russia, even China and the Arab world
4. Mute Chinese influence in Indo-Pak conflict
5. Changed narrative from Kashmir to Terror
6. Expose Paki military weaknesses
7. Reduce pressure on Baloch freedom fighters
8. Take calibrated measures to establish an anti-Paki climate in Indian Babudom - Water, MFN, Duties, etc.
9. Justify a massive (future) Indian military build up
10. Drain Paki army by keeping it in a state of constant def con 2-3 alert
11. Make surgical strikes the default option to any future terror strike
12. Discover Paki thresholds - there are many. 
13. Expose Paki military's main concern: To save face
14. Allow India to strategize beyond retribution i.e. to make real moves in POK and beyond

Swarm Warfare: BJP's Strategy for 2019

Swarm Warfare:  a battlefield tactic designed to maximize target saturation, and thereby overwhelm or saturate the defenses of the principal target or objective. 

For over a year now, yours truly has wondered where the hell was BJP heading vis-a-vis its campaign for 2019.  

Nothing seemed to fit.  NDA's lackadaisical attitude on corruption cases, the escape of Mallya and Co, zero progress on RJB movement....and BJP was seemingly stumbling into India's most important battle since Panipat. 

 But as they say - a week is a long time in politics.  

BJP's strategy for 2019 can be summed up in two words:  Swarm Warfare. 

What was perceived by many (me included) as a hands off, soft approach on the part of PM Modi, his govt and his party was instead a subtle 3 part strategy.  

1.  Allow the opposition enough room to spend its ammo and reveal its cards 
2. Keep BJP's own powder dry so as to use it at the opportune moment 
3. Swarm Warfare (more on that later) 

A perfect example of this strategy is the manner in which BJP has resisted the temptation to go after Robert Vadra.  Keeping his cases on a slow, back burner, to be brought to the fore front when a certain Priyanka Vadra steps into the ring. 

It is no coincidence that Deepak Talwar and Rajiv Saxena were  picked up and brought to India 3 months before elections.  This was clearly set up by Indian intelligence.  Notice how neither were allowed to appeal in Dubai courts. 

Now for the Swarm warfare. 

For several weeks now we have witnessed punch and counter punch.  BJP declares 10% reservation, Congress offers universal basic income, BJP counters with Rs. 6000 support.  That is to be expected in election season.  But in addition BJP is unleashing a strike a day.  Ground, Air, Ocean.  

Mamta Sharada scam one day, Vadra ED summons the next, Akhilesh with Ram sevak massacre the third, the news keeps rolling in.  


Just a week back, Karnataka was put in play.  Amateur pundits thought it was another attempt at grabbing the govt.  It was much more than that.  It forced Congress to spend a few crores from its coffers and should prevent it from gathering a sizeable chunk of much needed election funds from this cash rich state. 



As I type this post, Milind Deora has opened a new front in Mumbai, very subtly and back handedly bringing into focus  Congress' dynasty problem.  On the very day Priyanka arrives to set up shop at AICCI's head quarters. 

The idea seems to be to keep Congress and other components of the MGB busy on a daily basis and most importantly in a reactive mode.

This swarm warfare achieves several objectives: 

1. Allows BJP to set the agenda both at a Macro and a local micro level:  The targeting of Mamta, CBN, AY, etc. in their pocket boroughs should insulate BJP against local issues overpowering PM Modi's national campaign 

2. Keeps Opposition in a reactive mode:  Rafale, intolerance, etc. have already lost their sting.  Public is tired of these issues and any doubts engendered by Pappu's blitzkrieg have evaporated, given the clean chit from both the SC and the Indian Air force.  
Congress and MGB in general will find it hard to identify and ride any real issue - either local or national - to topple PM Modi's national campaign. 

3. Tire out the opposition:  Pappu now has to remember more than Rafale.  Moreover, with each swarm attack, UPA's impossible proposition of providing a strong viable govt. falls further down the abyss of public disgust and skepticism.

What should worry UPappuA is that BJP has only just begun.  This strategy seems to have been in the works for several years now. 

Abhi picture baaki hai :-) 

NaMo's Kavach Kundali

Karna's kavach Kundali were a boon given to him by his father.  As long as they remained on his person they made him indestructible.  No weapon could harm him.  His bigheartedness was exploited to steal them from him and make him mortal.  

This story comes to mind as I watch PM Modi's first real political challenge - The emerging chinks in his Kavach Kundali.  

NaMo's greatest political asset - his political Kavach Kundali - is his personal integrity.  As long as he's perceived as being honest and upright and immune to the spoils of political power he remains out of reach of any political weapon - legitimate or illegitimate.  Fair or unfair.  

But the day this armor is pierced he becomes politically mortal.  'Suit Boot ki Sarkar', 'Rafale', '30,000 crore' were all designed to rupture PM's kavach kundali and separate him from his greatest asset. 

Some may argue that this wont happen, cant happen.  That people are smart enough to detect this conspiracy.  But that is not the intention of Sonia's ecosystem.  The objective is to engender enough doubt in people's minds to demoralize BJP's support base and cause a rethink within the 'floating' vote that remains decisive in any contest. 

With 2019 emerging as a 'kante ki takkar', a fight to political death, this doubt, could be enough to sway 2-3% of the vote.  Enough in 30-40 seats to push BJP down to that 220 seats mark where a Congress coalition becomes easier and more viable than a NaMo led NDA formation. 

As suggested here - https://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2015/07/about-time-gloves-came-off-get-sonia-now.html  

PM should have gone after Sonia a lot earlier.  It would have preempted the 'Rafale' conspiracy.  With only 4 months left for polls it may be too late to adopt it now.  

What can he do now?  Play a T20 political match in the Court of People's Opinion (the only court that matters). 

Leak to the public all the evidence unearthed about the Vadra/2G/CWG/etc. scams.  

A media blitzkrieg using social media and NOT BJP's official sources. 

Let the question 'What the hell has the BJP govt. done?' fester for a few weeks and unleash a fresh set of evidence on an almost every daily basis.  

Drown the Congress in its own scam.  Surely such a simply strategy is worth a shot.

Benefits of a BJP Defeat

1. Mayawati is not a possible PM choice of the MGB.  My greatest fear was Maya winning a meaningful number of seats in MP and Chattisgarh and using these wins to bargain for 60 seats in the Hindi heartland making her an undeclared PM candidate of the MGB.  It was the one variable that gave me sleepless nights as explained here - https://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2018/07/countering-mayawati.html














With Pappu emerging as leader of the Main contender Maya is left behind and Pappu becomes the defacto choice of leader of MahaGhatbandhan (MGB)
- Even some BJP veterans are attributing Congress' win to Pappu's emergence a viable counter to NaMo 
- The victories (at time of writing) are very close in both MP and Rajasthan.  This is not the rout anti-BJP forces are celebrating.  

It is the best possible outcome for the BJP.

2. Maya, Mamta will become very upset
Congress' strong showing will mean both Maya and Mamta (and other PM contenders) would have to bury their PM ambitions.  This will not go down well with them.  Congress will be in no mood to form an alliance by playing 2nd or 3rd fiddle in key states.  There's no way Maya gets Congress to concede seats in MP/Rajasthan for accommodation in UP.  What would this to Maya's enthusiasm to join a grand alliance.  An alliance in which she gains nothing but both Pappu and Akhilesh (UP ke ladke) use her as a stepping stone to capture the thrones at center and state levels. 

This may open the space for BJP to suggest an alliance with Maya for accomodation at the state level.  If nothing else, BJP could set the cat amongst the pigeons by insuniating an alliance through strategic media leaks. 


3. BJP wont be complacent
Election management is a necessary, not a sufficient condition to win elections.  BJP has failed to connect the dots for their voters:  Eradication of corruption = Money for development.  Simple messaging trumps complex facts and figures. 

4. Turnout 
One of BJP's biggest weakness is the muted enthusiasm of its supporters.  A massive defeat for BJP would scare BJP's core supporters and even tier 2 and 3 supporters to come out in greater numbers. 

5. A real fear has gripped Hindus.  In the weeks and months ahead, this fear will start spreading like wild fire.  Moreover, as Muslims/Christians start celebrating BJP's defeat their anti-Hindu face will be unmasked.  This has the potential to not only trigger a counter Hindu-consolidation but also drive turnout come election day.  BJP must nurture and harness this fear by (for instance) making tangible progress on Ram Temple or education reforms. 

Countering Mayawati

Mayawati as PM candidate is the latest trial balloon floated by the strategists behind the MahaGathBandhan (MGB).  

And frankly, for the first time, I'm worried about BJP's 2019 chances.  

It is very difficult to attack a woman and a Dalit one at that.   One loose tongued slip up, by a BJP loud mouth will be run by MGB friendly channels on a loop through election day and beyond. 

BJP's old branding as a bania-brahmin party will be resurrected.  Game over. 

It is for this reason that BJP must take a proactive approach to burying Maya before she has a chance to gain her footing. 

There are 3 ways to do this (and neither involve a direct attack): 

1. Document and define Maya's track record as CM in terms of the work she did for Dalits and what little the Dalit community gained from it.  

2. Define Maya as Sonia's version i.e. corrupt to the core and one who gained power so her family would benefit and nothing game the way of aam Dalits. 

3. Portray Maya as Sonia's puppet.  Maya will be used as mascot and after election Congress will install a new puppet or harass Maya into becoming a puppet. 

One last point.  BJP must prepare a crack team to efficiently and expeditiously counter any slip-ups from within BJP or any misinformation that is created by the MGB dirty tricks department. 

Finally, allow BJP sympathisers to go after Maya's corrupt record.  AND have them attack (yes attack) BJP for not going after Maya and putting her behind bars. 

Make Maya as CM the focus and not Maya the woman or Maya the Dalit.

Why Is the Church Targeting PM Modi

It doesnt make sense.  Why on earth would the Catholic church target the PM?  It can only help BJP by consolidating Hindu vote behind them.  Increase Hindu turnout.

There are 2 possible reasons: 

1. Church is in cahoots with BJP (Impossible)
2. Church is hurting

 But the curtailed conversion agenda cannot alone explain the shear aggression and desperation exhibited by the Church. 

There's another reason for this last ditch effort to galvanize the Christian community.  

It is this:  PM's development agenda is providing the basic necessities to India's poor, reducing their dependence on non-state actors such as the conversion NGOs supported by the Church. 

Another 5 years of a Modi Govt. will not only destroy the conversion thrust but rob the church of fresh recruits. 

Given that most neo convert come from the ranks of the poorest of the poor, this market will likely disappear by 2024. 

Though China is seeing a rapid growth in Christians after experiencing economic growth, India is different.  Under Communism, Chinese were left with a spiritual vacuum.  One that attracted Christianity as a natural occupant.  

With its 10,000 year old spiritual tradition, India has no such handicap.  Even the most downtrodden Hindus will remain within their religion if their basic needs are met. 

It is this dual threat that has made the Church hit the panic button. 

The Cardinal's letter is only the first salvo in a battle that has just begun.  International spotlight is just round the corner.  Surely the strategy was devised well in advance.  The Church is both ruthless and extraordinarily intelligent not to enter this battle with a well devised plan to stop the NaMo juggernaut. 

Benami Property - Demonitization 2.0

Demonitization was an unparalleled success.  Because it was seen by the aam aadmi as a bold step with which to defeat India's high and mighty.  Watching everyone from Mulayam to Raj Thackeray to Mamata and ofcourse Sonia, squirm over the destruction of their ill gotten wealth was drug like no other - A drug Indians had never experienced. 

But DeMo is increasingly becoming a non-issue or worse turning against the PM.  Why is that?  

It is seen as a sacrifice asked of and made by India's aam aadmi while little has been done to hurt the big cats - the Sonias/Niravs/Mallyas of the world. 

The halo effect generated by DeMo can be retrieved and deployed in 2019 if PM Modi takes the step he has been promising but hasnt yet delivered - Going after Benami Properties. 

Some have argued that another DeMo like measure would anger and frustrate Indians and hurt BJP's chances in 2019. 

But it is a risk worth taking.  The policy could be fenced in so that its impact on the aam aadmi can be restricted.  As it is the middle and lower middle classes do not own benami real estate. 

Given that DeMo has brought a wide swath of Indians under the tax umbrella, it should be relatively simple to match property records with declared income to quickly identify those who could be owning a property beyond their known sources of income. 

Further more, only properties beyond a certain threshold could be targeted - say greater than Rs. 1 Cr. 

These measures would exclude 95% of Indians.  Watching the high and mighty squirm and sweat as their properties are auctioned off would electrify the electorate and bring back corruption as a central issue. 

Further more, property prices would drop allowing a larger pool of Indians to own homes.  The rising demand would boost the wider economy and add anywhere from 0.2-0.5% to the growth rate. 

It is a near perfect weapon with which to win 2019.  But will the PM bite the bullet?

How to Break Opposition Unity

As I have time and again emphasized, a victory for Congress is keeping BJP to 220 seats.  And the best way to ensure this outcome is for the opposition to unite. 

As I right this a Maha Gatbandhan (MGB) seems like a reach.  But  a MGB is not the only option for opposition unity.  

What I fear most are several local alliances with Congress as the common binding force which gives up in states where it is weaker whilst retaining primacy in its strongholds. 

Local contradictions (Mamta vs. Left, Mulayam vs. Maya, etc.) may force a multi-cornered fight in key states but if Congress can create enough local alliances it could bring BJP down to 220 seats. 

What follows are a few ideas on how to preempt any major alliances for opposition unity. 

1. Congress Mukt Bharat - As a Coalition Buster

Much as congress men and women have come to view the family as the only glue that will hold the party together, regional parties view the Congress the essential glue to piece and hold together an anti-BJP coalition.  With a series of defeats Congress has presented, ambitious local satraps with a tantalizing option - What if Congress Mukt Bharat does come to fruition, can one of them stake claim to helm a new UPA?  

Will a depleted Congress then support a regional leader for PM just to keep the BJP out?  

BJP must promote this angle.  The likes of Mamta, Maya and Mulayam and even Nitish would find such a scenario irresistible. 

BJP's 'go-slow' strategy on 2g scam should be seen in this light.  By putting opposition fears of legal retribution to rest, BJP has established the first precondition to creating this race for supremacy. 

But this strategy can only work if it is carefully calibrated.  In run up to 2004, a similarly depleted Congress was able to give up its claim to PMship which attracted eager PM contenders to the UPA umbrella and the rest is history. 

The idea should be to prevent a coalition from taking shape in the first place. 

Also, not all regional leaders will buy into this strategy.  Some may see Congress as a necessary evil. But even if a few buy into this strategy it would put one more nail in that coalition coffin. 

2. Exposing pro-Jihadi political fronts 

From Owaisi to Akmal most purely Muslim political outfits seem to have a link to global jihadi networks.  Either directly or indirectly through underworld or social connections.  

Congress will need to tie up with these outfit so as to keep minority votes from getting divided.  As a preemptive strike, expose these jihadi linkages and if UPA or its component parties try to tie up with them, use that as one strategy to consolidate Hindu votes.

3. Blasting Benamis

Go after Benami properties and announce elections in the middle of the effort - ensure that those owning legitimate properties arent targeted.  This can be done by using Aadhar data to match against property ownership data.  The process should start around Oct 2018 or earlier.  This act of taking action against massive corruption will remain  unfinished but the measure will garner massive support.  Much like Demonitization, such measures get massive support from the voting segments. 

A few prominent politicians will get ensnared in this web - and that would be the icing on the cake. 





4. Corruption free Mai Baap 

BJP has delivered on its biggest promise - Corruption free Mai Baap - a strategy that has worked wonderfully for BJP in Gujarat -  http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2011/06/understanding-indian-electorate.html 

Homes for poor, bank accounts, Jan Dhan, direct deposit and several such programs are part of this Mai-Baap approach.  An approach sans corruption. 

In terms of policy it is no different from what Congress has offered but the differentiation lies in the corruption-free implementation BJP has delivered. 

BJP must package this achievement with several features 
a) Corruption free
b) Delivered by a Hindu ruler 
c) Direct to people (i.e. eliminating the middle i.e. corrupt men)
d) 5 years of corruption free delivery Vs. 70 years of corruption ridden mess 

To break the coalition BJP must do something they did in 2014 i.e. connect directly with the voter.  So that a large section of (for example) Yadavs and Dalits vote for BJP/NaMo and not their respective caste brethren. 

5. Compare to Congress but more importantly how does it compare to what the benchmark BJP set for itself 

6. War on maoists is on the winning track 

7. Play on the fear most Indians feel - if Congress comes back they will loot all the good work done in past 4 years


 


 
4.The Message:  Foundation is ready, building is under construction