Pakistan is screwed. Here's why.

While even his most ardent supporters were wondering why a freshly minted PM would make foreign travel his focus, PM Modi has (in his usual calm, calculated fashion) made significant strategic moves to build a strong defense against India’s primary enemies – China and Pakistan.

China:

China is committing a fundamental error by making enemies in their immediate neighborhood.  Perhaps they fear the worrying signals emanating from their slowing economy.  

Dooms day scenarios predicting a Chinese economic capitulation have fallen apart over the past 2 decades.  But recent data and actions by their most influential and well connected citizens suggest emergence of many a storm on the Chinese economic horizon.

Lack of internal democracy makes China’s Communist Party overly dependent on a red hot economy as the primary leverage to keep its citizens from engineering a ‘spontaneous’ ‘Chinese Spring’.

Over the years localized revolts have been quelled by a combination of brute force and economic incentives.  A slowing economy eliminates the latter as a key weapon in the government’s arsenal.

Another leading indicator is the behavior of Chinese millionaires.  Credible reports indicate that a majority of Chinese millionaires have either emigrated or plan to emigrate—taking their spending and fortunes with them. The United States being their favorite destination.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101345275

There cannot be a greater vote of no confidence in China’s ability to sustain its stellar economic performance.

These worrying signs may be a key factor in China’s sudden urge to intimidate its neighbors and capture as much territory while the going is good.

Another factor contributing to China’s territorial ambitions is the slow but steady decline of the United States of America as the preeminent global power. 

China territorial greed is engineering the largest realignment of global forces since the Cold war.  This realignment is taking place across nations who have no real economic, cultural or historic hostility towards each other.  US, Japan, India, Philippines, Vietnam, Australia, Malaysia, and Indonesia have no problems uniting under a single anti-Chinese coalition.  They have no competing claims between themselves and the looming Chinese Dragon is acting as a strong adhesive to mend whatever historic animosities that may have existed between these nations (US and Vietnam for instance).

PM Modi has understood these competing variables.  His ‘Act East’ policy has already started paying dividends.  Most importantly he has understood exactly how to leverage India’s many virtues (soft power, history of pacifism, diversity, etc.) and neutralizing her many weaknesses (weak economy, under equipped military, etc.)

For instance, many Internet Hindus were upset with signing of the Bangladesh accord.  “10,000 acres traded for what?” was the common refrain.  But a calm and pro-India, subcontinent is an absolute necessity. 

Starting with the invitation to SAARC heads of state to his inauguration PM Modi has played his cards extremely well.  Within a short period India has been able to bring on board Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka and make them a part of the Indian Century as envisioned by PM Modi.

By inviting the Chinese to participate in India’s economic miracle, PM Modi is trying to build a strong business constituency within China, in much the same way China built a pro-Chinese lobby of American business leaders.

PM Modi has built a strong fortress across the subcontinent.  Which in turn has led to the isolation of Pakistan.

Impact on Pakistan

Some credit for Pakistan’s current state must go to earlier govts. Starting with ABV’s NDA-1 and even UPA 1 and 2. 

Both UPA 1 and 2 seem to have built strong intelligence assets within Baluchistan.

However, Pakistan itself is the single biggest contributing factor in the decline of Pakistan as a nation.  Their hatred for “bania” Hindus has forced Pakistanis into a cul-de-sac which will lead to Pakistan’s ultimate demise as a coherent geo-political entity.

Recent statements and actions from the Modi government suggest that this is PM Modi’s ultimate goal but in the interim he wants to implement the Shourie Doctrine i.e. keep Pakistan’s army so preoccupied on its western border that they have no time or resources to look east.

Apart from delusional Pakistanis (and a few Aman-ki-Asha types) no one believes Pakistan is a victim of terror.  Even the most pro-Pakistan elements within the American foreign policy establishment view Pakistan with deep suspicion today.  Finding Osama Bin Laden comfortably ensconced in a fortified Army cantonment was a kick-in-the-nuts for many a Cold War American warrior.

Most importantly, American public is now convinced that Pakistan is the epicenter of terror.  The growing distance between these former allies is evident from recent American behavior.

-          President Obama was the first American President not to include a Pakistan stop-over on this trip to India

-          American arms supply now come with strings attached i.e. they can only be used in the western theatre and not against India

-          American economic aid has been stagnant for several years

-          Americans have refused to include anything perceived as anti-Indian in their joint statements with Pakistan

-          America and her allies have refused to utter the ‘K’ word

-          America refused to offer Pakistan a nuclear treaty on par with India

-          Lack of fresh batch of F-16s have forced Pakistan to look at sub-par Chinese fighter jets

This ‘de-hyphenation’ of Indo-Pak has been understood by Pakistani political and military leadership.  The eagerness to get even closer to China is a last ditch, desperate attempt on the part of Pakistan to shore up its defenses against India.

Pakistan’s creation and continued nurturing of Jihadis have made the world wary of its intentions.  Moreover, it has pushed Pakistan into a corner and eliminated all or most of its strategic options.

Afghanistan has come to understand Pakistan’s use of its territory for strategic depth.  After the havoc imposed on the region by Pakistan’s progeny - the Taliban - both Afghanis and Iranians view Pakistan with deep suspicion.

Iran in particular would be very concerned with the long term objective of Pakistan’s Islamic army to create a Sunni-Only demographic across the region.  The almost weekly massacre of fellow Shias in prominent Pakistani cities can only serve as a frequent reminder of what awaits a Shia Iran if Pakistan ever goes completely ‘postal’ and Jihadis overcome their handlers to take over the reins of Pakistan’s substantial military resources.

Hemmed in by suspicious neighbors and former allies Pakistan has no other options but to court the Chinese and genuflect at the altar of the Dragon Gods.

For the Chinese, Pakistan is just another option, for a friendless Pakistan, China is now its only recourse.

This is the same China that is imposing the most draconian anti-Islamic secularism in Muslim majority Xinjiang.  Muslim children aren’t allowed to learn about their faith; adults cannot adopt Islamic symbols like the hijab or keeping a beard. 

http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-china-blog-28263496

If Pakistan has to now depend on such an ‘ally’ you know these are desperate times.

America followed a use-and-discard policy with Pakistan, but China seems to have an even more sinister design i.e. to occupy Pakistani territory.  These territorial ambitions are manifested in the form of the much publicized ‘POK to Gwadar economic corridor’.

 The strategy serves multiple objectives:

a)      Add one more pearl to the string of pearls China is building to restrict India

b)      Economically shore up a sinking Pakistan

c)       Establish a presence within Pakistan so as to control and if possible terminate, the growing rebellion in Muslim majority province of Xinjiang which gains its sustenance from within Pakistan

A strong, prosperous Pakistan is in nobody’s interest.  But a pliant, beleaguered Pakistan is vital to global peace and prosperity.

Another key variable in this equation is Uncle Sam.  The growing foothold gained by Indian intelligence in Afghanistan and Baluchistan suggests a passive (and perhaps active) support from America.

Some American foreign policy mandarins may continue harboring fond memories of their joint strategy that took down the Soviet Union, but emergence of a new axis-of-evil (Pakistan-China-Russia) suggests a rethink in Washington DC. 

This rethink is borne out by the growing proximity between Washington and Delhi and the tangible space DC is willing to concede to India within south Asian.

As these new equations crystallize, the contradictions that led to Pakistan becoming an International pariah will only sharpen.  Both China (Xin Jiang) and Russia (Chechnya) have restive Muslim regions.  Any actions taken by these two nations will have a ripple effect across Jihadi enclaves within Pakistan.

It is in this context that the economic corridor is likely to become Pakistan’s waterloo.   Pakistan is raising a large military division with the sole purpose of securing the smooth construction of this corridor.

Given the difficult geographical, cultural (Punjabis Vs Balochis, Kashmirs) and religious (Sunni Vs Shia) terrain traversed by the proposed highway, both India and the US would be salivating at the prospect of creating a host of troubles for Pakistan so as to keep its army pinned down in defending this endless endeavor.

Such an effort is likely to take decades and require gargantuan resources unavailable to an impoverished nation.

Pakistan could raise resources from the Middle East.  By turning down Saudi request for military intervention in Yemen, Pakistan has angered its longtime friend and financier i.e. the House of Saud.  Any future requests for funding are likely to come with riders attached - an immediate, tactical quid-pro.

Similarly, Uncle Sam is unlikely to invest in an effort which would further strengthen its next Cold war foe i.e. China.

That leaves Pakistan at the mercy of China to fund this corridor.  Nothing suits India and America more than having the Chinese invest in a bottomless pit.  Both Allies would make it their mission to turn this proposed corridor into a quagmire.

Perhaps Pakistan could raise much needed funds from International markets.  But a country that cannot convince another nation to play a cricket series within its borders is unlikely to attract meaningful foreign investments.

Pakistan has raised an Islamic Frankenstein’s monster which will consume it within the next 2 decades.

India has reached a stage where her economy is too big and too diverse to be threatened by Jihadi terror.  With a 1.2 billion strong ‘virgin’ market, India (and to a lesser extent Africa) represent the last two continent-sized global economic drivers capable of lifting a stagnant world economy.

By presenting itself as a place where business gets done and fortunes get made, Modi’s India will gallop so far ahead of Pakistan that every year of economic growth will put a decade long distance between the two nations.

With economic clout comes political and military clout.  PM Modi is attempting just such a strategic restructuring so as to place India where it belongs - At the international high table.

The recent surgical strike in Myanmar should be considered within the aforementioned equations.  The public celebration of this success was meant to demonstrate India’s capability and willingness to extend similar actions into Pakistani territory.

Most importantly, India’s blunt and tough response over the past 12 months suggest a long term strategy to leverage every Indian advantage to subdue and eventually destroy Pakistan as a nation.

From Baluchistan to POK to the Karachi stock exchange.  Pakistan is about to start feeling the heat.

The string of chest-thumping statements from Pakistan suggests the message got through.  Pakistan will now have to engage in an arms race across multiple fronts.  Keeping an army on constant alert costs significant resources, something the ABV govt discovered during Operation Parakaram.

India can now inflict considerable economic and military punishment on Pakistan without breaching the nuclear threshold.  Pakistan’s tactical nukes have suddenly become door stops.

Each percentage growth in India’s GDP will leave Pakistan further behind.  Unable to channel her Jihadi monsters across the border will force them inward.

Most importantly, as FM Manohar Parrikar stated a few weeks back, Pakistan has created Jihadi assets which an economically superior India can acquire to turn against Pakistani military targets.

If you think this is all wishful thinking, think again.  The process has commenced.  

NaMo’s India will only expedite it.