The BJP is Losing........

Results of LS 2009 elections dealt a body blow to what little hope the Hindu Right harbored to save their god forsaken country.  The gleeful expressions on faces of Congress' darbaris would come to haunt Hindus for the rest of their lives.  It was the lowest point for BJP and the larger Sangh Parivar.  The defeat was even greater than the shock defeat of 2004.  2009 meant Sonia's agenda was well established and India had irreversibly endorsed the path of pseudo secularism.  2009 was the culmination of a series of stumbles beginning with LKA's leftward shift to PramodM's assassination and its ugly fallout. 

India's Right Wing was truly and soundly defeated.  It would seem it was safe to assume that Congress and/or its many regional clones would extend their control over all levers of power and in due course of time decimate what little was left of India's Hinduness. 

But as Sonia and her darbaris celebrated one more foreign invader ruling over India, they missed two important facts.  

1) Though BJP+ was decimated, their vote bank was intact.  It hadnt switched sides.  
2) LKA's last hurrah would yield space to new leadership, untainted by the ghosts of the past, allowing BJP to unload its baggage and make a fresh start 

Watching the results of Haryana/MH coupled with the close call in Gujarat, one cant help but draw parallels between Congress' post 2009 smug arrogance and BJP's misplaced confidence circa 2019. 

All three states should be natural Hindutva strongholds.  MH and Haryana have strong local leaders with a spotless reputation. 

In all three states, Opposition was comatose with no real state leadership, massive infighting, weak or absent organization and most importantly no real agenda - positive or negative. 

Despite these headwinds faced by the opposition, BJP faced a close call in Haryana and in MH has come to depend on a schizophrenic ally.  

Something isnt adding up.  Lets try to make sense of it. 

1. BJP is NaMo and NaMo is BJP.  Though this works wonders in LS elections, eventually, the law of diminishing returns will kick in.  Two forces - if aligned at the right time - could dent NaMo's appeal:  
1. A clean leader rises up from within opposition ranks.  (Note:  Kejriwal had the potential to be such a clean leader, but he was too stupid and too infatuated with NaMo to ever pose a challenge - he's just not a 'Lambi race ka Ghoda') 
2.  A scandal close to NaMo's inner circle engulfs BJP - Jay Shah, for example, getting tainted by betting infested IPL
2. BJP's core support base may be driven by Hindutva agenda but the incremental vote which has propelled BJP to 303 LS seats is driven by economic concerns.
3. BJP has done a stellar job controlling inflation but an aspirational India is demanding more. 
4. BJP/NaMo are now competing with their own commitments and not the increasingly distant sins of Congress+
5. If an organizationally decimated Opposition could almost humble the BJP's well oiled electoral war machine, a close call in 2024 is a real possibility 
6. Having opposition ruled states undermines PM's agenda and makes the delivery of central schemes patchy at best (Ayushman Bharat for instance) 
7. BJP's good intentions are hurting the aam admi - even though they may be put in place to protect and benefit the aam admi.  New Road safety law is a great example.  Such schemes must be put in place after govt. has done its part of improving road conditions, installing road safety technology.  

Following are the some humble suggestions from someone who has never wavered in his belief in PM Modi. 

1. In the run up to 2007 Gujarat polls, then CM Modi made a verifiable pitch to Gujarati voters.  He said "on every corner of every village/city, you will see signs of development/progress.  A new bus stand, a freshly paved street, a new water connection, etc.  I'm bringing progress to your door step".  BJP has perfected booth level campaigning, it must now perfect booth level economic development.  
2. By its very nature, Prime Ministership requires its occupant to focus on the 'macro' and not get caught up in the 'micro'.  Macro policies aka attracting investment, improving ease of doing business, etc. should be the focus but PM Modi may run out of time waiting for benefits of these monumental structural shifts to trickle down to the aam admi.  The common man wants solutions now, he has waited 70 years.  There's no reason why macro and micro cannot go hand-in-hand or in parallel.  The two arent mutually exclusive.  
3. Focus on the basket.  The Modi sarkar needs to identify the top 5-10 items that every Indian needs and place a laser focus on them.  This is not to suggest that the 11 to 50 ranked items can be ignored.  But showing tangible progress on these fundamental items will go much further and cement their hold on power beyond the next election cycle. 
4. Go public with the mess in the banking sector.  Explain to the aam admi how India's preferred 'Business Model' was to set up companies only to use them as a ruse to bride bank officials and politicians to borrow large sums from public sector banks and then keep rolling the debt.  Take India into confidence on how real economic boom will be ushered in when this old Business model of loot is replaced with a real economic model based on fair and transparent policies

Hope BJP is still receptive to ideas/suggestions from its life long supporters. 

Towards a New Indian Economy

Almost a decade back I had explained PM Modi's economic doctrine (see link below).  In a nutshell it could be described as providing a corruption free Mai-baap sarkar i.e. Corruption free socialism. 

And it worked wonders for him - first in Gujarat and then at the national level.  

Since winning a massive mandate in 2019, PM Modi has surprised supporters and opponents alike, by the general drift he has seemingly allowed to creep into India's economy.  

His legendary political reflexes are conspicuous by their absence.  One could argue that scrapping Articles 370 and 35A had the govt. preoccupied with a matter critical to India's safety and her future. 

The one piece that has remained out of place in India's slumping economic story is Narendra Damodardas Modi.  Having followed his every action in great detail, his calm, hands off approach seems baffling. 

There are two conclusions to draw from India's economic drift (it's not a crisis yet). 

1. PM Modi is out of touch with reality and India's slumping economy is a function of his lack luster leadership or 
2. PM Modi is laying the ground work for a tectonic shift in India's economic landscape 

I have no doubt it is the latter.  Allow me to explain. 

To establish a truly market driven economy, India must rid itself of the other side of dynasty driven politics i.e. Crony Capitalism (CC).  

Dynastic politics and Crony capitalism are two sides of the same coin.  One cannot survive without the other. Both feed off of each other and one cannot survive the other.  Left untouched, CC has the potential to engineer a revival of dynasties in the future. 

Consider the following lesson from history.  Indira Gandhi was driven out by voters, her come back was largely due to the inept handling of governance by the Hodge podge alliance that replaced her.  But what fueled her phoenix like rise was the support of India's foremost Crony Capitalist aka Dhirubhai Ambani. 

Political Dynasties and CC work hand in hand.  They have deep relationships.  For instance, some very big Politicians not only gather funds from said CC but enjoy significant stakes in these businesses.  There's a reason why Sharad Pawar cannot be touched.  Through various benami fronts he holds significant stakes in top Indian companies.  

To break this stranglehold, PM Modi is draining the very financial resources which sustain these CC entities.  The timing (as always) is perfect.  It may take 2-3 years for these entities to be weakened to a point where they can no longer prevent green shoots from emerging, green shoots i.e. new industrial power houses who play by the rules and do not subvert the system to create quasi monopolies, duopolies and oligopolies. 



p.s. PM Modi has taken a similar strategy to destroy dynasties (https://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2014/07/how-namo-will-destroy-dynasties-without.html)

Mai Baap Sarkar aka Corruption Free Socialism https://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2011/06/understanding-indian-electorate.html

BJP - The New Congress (or is it?)

Modiuddin, 2nd Manmohan, are but a few pejoratives toss around by angry Hindutva's social media warriors.  And though their reactions may be justified at some level, they are misplaced. 

Scores of BJP activits and Hindus are being attacked via systematic campaign by Islamic social radicals (ISR).  From Love Jihad to Cow smuggling to temple desecration and systematic ethnic cleansing Hindus remain at the receiving end of these barbaric acts. 

And the irony of it all is that Hindus are being portrayed as aggressor, the intolerant, the communal.  

It is but natural that BJP supporters would unleash their anger against the first truly Hindu ruler to occupy Delhi's throne in 700 years. 

But their angry reaction is emblematic of all that is wrong with Hindus and helps explain why Hindus have remained victims for centuries.  

 There's an old saying in Marathi "Shivaji parat janma la yava, pan sezarachai gharat" - Shivaji should be reborn, but in the neighbor's family." 

Indians in general and Hindus in particular, expect someone else to do the heavy lifting, the dirty work.  They will not lift a finger beyond voting and screaming about it. 

If Hinduism is under severe attack, Hindus themselves are partly to blame for their plight. 

Few of those unleashing their rage at PM Modi, provide any feasible solutions.  What do they expect the PM to do?  Kill 25 crore Muslims?  

Ethnically cleanse Muslims out of India?  If they even consider such a solution, they deserve the cold shoulder BJP is giving them. 

But BJP does have long term solutions and is quietly working towards achieving them.  The very nature of this strategy is that it has to follow legal process so as to meet not only Indian constitutional statutes but also accepted international norms. 

Take for example two key solutions which will help India restore geographical and demographic balance back in favor of Hindus. 

The appointment of his most trusted general - Amit Shah - as Home Minister is the first step in achieving these solutions. 

1. Kashmir:  PM Modi has initiated the process to redrawing electoral boundaries so that seats in J&K are distributed as per population density and not in favor of Muslim majority Kashmir and against Jammu and Ladakh.  Such an effort will most likely lead to the first Hindu CM of J&K who can initiate the process of full integration with India.  Such a line would ensure completely legality of the process and make it beyond reproach both domestically and internationally. 

2. NRC:  The process to identify illegal aliens (primarily from Bangladesh) and deporting them would do wonders for urban India and reduce the threat of a demographic invasion significantly.  HM Shah has already declared that NRC will be applied nationwide and the process has been initiated. 

Unlike Internet warriors, PM Modi and his team have to come up with real, tangible solutions.  

The PM could offer lip service, condemn killing of Hindus, or go into his Gujarat mode, but none of these would bring any real change on the ground.  

Moreover, making such seemingly partisan statements would bring a swift international backlash and needlessly hurt India's carefully cultivated standing with key allies like Iran and America. 

So before keyboard warriors stage a collective walkout from the ranks of BJP supporters, they should give PM Modi a chance.  He wont jump ship and become a congressi.  He's just cut from a different cloth. 

PM's Muslim Outreach: Strategy and Rising Hindu Backlash

Within the first 18 months of his first tenure as PM, NaMo did the unthinkable.  He invited Nawaz Sharif to his swearing-in and worst of all, went unannounced to Pakistan to hug the same Nawaz as a show of personal friendship.  All this despite Pakistan's well proven status as India's worst nightmare. 

Core BJP supporters (me included) were disappointed and deeply hurt, to say the least.  But somewhere deep down most of us knew we only had to trust the man.  He wouldnt betray us.  He had eschewed wearing the skull cap.  He was our one man army. 

As more of his tenure unfolded the riddle explained itself.  PM Modi was buying time.  To fix India's economy, to fix her eviscerated intelligence network and replenish her military reserves. 

And once he had his pieces in place he pounced.  Sending Pakistan into a tail spin, from which it may never recover. 

As the media tom-toms NDA2's biggest muslim outreach, Hindu India is up in arms.  The outrage is pouring out - 'Modiuddin', 'Nehru'....are only some of the lesser monikers doing the round. 

To these I say 'have patience' my fellow Internet Hindus.  Your myopia is now legendary. And when it comes to NaMo you have always had to eat your words. 

So here's what could be the real strategy behind the Muslim outreach (in order of importance):  

1. Liberate Muslim Women:   Islam like most other religions has 3 key weaknesses - Independent Women, Apostates and Shias.  Promote these to achieve a critical mass and the religion will cross a point of no return.  It is no wonder that the religion puts such emphasis on the control and subjugation of women.  From what muslim women wear, to who can see their faces, to what the study....everything is tightly controlled.  Much like other conservative societies, when women find independence the old order collapses.  Speak to any conservative Muslim and you get the feeling that they understand this weakness.  Muslim women most resemble African slaves.  Controlled, subjugated and kept in line by house negros aka other Muslim women.  

Educating Muslim women is the primary aim of the new policy.  But it cannot be blatantly obvious.  Hence the inclusion of Muslim men.  Even if 1 in 1000 Muslim girls graduating from these education initiatives find a voice the resulting fissures would shake global islam to its very core. 

2. Diluting hold of Madarassas:  Imagine reading the Koran at 9 am and STEM subjects at 10 am.  The contrast is bound to engender deep doubts in the minds of even the most devout and obedient students.  Basic human curiosity would then come in direct conflict with religious indoctrination and once again compel students to question Islam's teachings:  Flat earth, flying horses, etc. 

Much as rise of science and technology have devastated Western Christianity so will teaching STEM subjects force muslim students to question their beliefs. 

One may ask how come Hindu scientists remain a devout lot.  Well that is because Hinduism is never forced.  Its willingness to accept logical challenges to its doctrine have shielded it and in fact enhanced its value in the eyes of its followers. 

Islam being an all-or-nothing proposition, even the slightest challenge is likely to cause deep fissures.  Fissures which may lead to its eventual dilution and demise. 

3. Hindu Vedic Schools:  President G W Bush launched something called 'Faith based Initiatives' where in state funds were funneled to church organizations to support their charity work.  Which as nothing but the blatant promotion of Christianity.  But by keeping it avowedly faith neutral GW could help his Christian organizations by throwing a few crumbs at non-Christian religious orgs. 

PM Modi's strategy may be on similar lines.  Now when his govt. announces Vedic Schools or supports Hindu initiatives, few could oppose them.  It is another trap.  Much as Ganga Bachao Andolan could not be opposed by anti-Hindu forces, a pro Hindu education policy would render all opponents impotent now that PM Modi has supported  massive initiative to educate Muslims. 

So my fellow Internet Hindus, cure your myopia and let the man do his job.   He's the best there's ever been. 

Rise of Priyanka in 2024

Congress' 2019 campaign made no sense from the get go.  After winning a morale boosting victory in December, Congress lost the plot. What seemed like a easy 120-140 seats and a shot at the top job, Congress seems to be fighting to survive and keep upstarts from usurping what little is left of the Congress. 

Congress started by peddling a dream i.e. The MahaGhatBandhan (MGB) to take on the Mighty NaMo-AmSh combo. 

And everything seemed to be falling in place.  But in a few short weeks reality seemed to have caught on.  A MGB was only possible if Congress ceded significant territory to accommodate partners in key states. 

Doing this would be prove to be the last nail in Congress' coffin.  With every 2-bit regional satrap salivating over the possibility of pulling a Deve Gowda, Congress was caught in a bind.  

Stitch up a national level MGB and defeat the BJP or concede defeat to BJP and live to fight another day.  And Congress strategists have decided to go with the latter. 

Enter PriyankaV (PV).  

Pappu is least interested politics.  Like most Babalog he's in it to protect his ill gotten wealth, which only political power can protect. 

PV seems more passionate for the job and given her religious upbringing, sees politics as an extension of religious crusade as proposed by the holy father. 

Pappu and his team has not realized that his time is up.  This is his last election.  Either he steps aside or becomes a figure head.  In either case the power moves to PV post May 23. 

Team PV has done the right political calculation.  In their mind the best scenario is a severely fragmented mandate with NaMo as head of a very weak coalition govt. 

There's no way she would want an Akhilesh or a Tej Pratap or even a Kanahiya kumar grow stronger and permanently wipe out Congress from the Hindi Heartland. 

It would not be a surprise if PV was behind all attempts to form local alliances across India between relevant regional parties such as AAP, SP, BSP, etc. 

Every opposition leader has invested heavily in anti-NaMo campaign.  A resounding NaMo win will discredit every leader from Akhilesh to RajT.  Which in turn will create a massive political vacuum in opposition ranks.  And here's where PV will make her move.  To become the crusading woman who  will take on NaMo.  

The fulcrum around which a long term alliance could be built.  With the Muslim-Dalit-Bramhin  (MDB) votebank as its bedrock. 

BJP must do one thing right of the bat.  Define PV as the Queen Of Corruption.  The power which allowed Robert to become a billionaire. 

Force her into a reactive mode from the get got.  Unleash the legal hounds on her and keep her in a state where everything she says reminds voters of her role in the big loot. 

Going soft on her could prove disastrous in 2024.  UPA scams will be a distant memory by then and NaMo may be considering retirement or at the very least a massive war of succession will be underway within the BJP. A war to occupy that coveted #2 spot. 

In that backdrop, if PV has been allowed to emerge as the face of the opposition, she could become a real threat in 2024.  Most regional satraps will be old and retired or gone.  SharadP, Babu, Maya, etc. would be well past their prime with no successor in place. 

All factors aiding the emergence of PV as the prime (if not the sole) inheritor of opposition space. 

BJP cannot afford a formidable leader of opposition i.e. PV to occupy the space and take India by storm. Ignore her at your own peril BJP. 

p.s. I had maintained from day one that Pappu was pappu and would never emerge as real threat.  PV is a different cup of tea

And so it Begins - Gazwa-e-Hind and its implications for China

One would expect the long awaited Mother of all Wars - Gazwa-e-Hind to begin with a bang.  Fire and Brimstone, Cannons and War Cries.  Instead we have witnessed an informal declaration of war in a relative backwater of the region - Colombo, Sri Lanka. 

What has baffled all of us and what seems to make little sense is this: why would ISI (make no mistake, this was an ISI operation, with IS providing the necessary cover to avoid an international backlash) pick Sri Lanka (if not an ally, a neutral entity in the region).  

Moreover, why pick on a minuscule Christian minority.  

The answer is simple:  Pakistan, facing imminent economic meltdown and a potential balkanization has decided to up the ante and drown India and the region in an endless wave after wave of Islamic attacks. 

Gazwa-e-Hind has begun. 

The sub-continent is being primed to become another Syria.  And therein lies Pakistan's only hope to destroy India. 

Certain factors are clearly in Pakistan's favor.  An undivided subcontinental India from Afghanistan to Burma has 45% Muslim representation.  Almost all of it Sunni.  That demographic advantage is the only real leverage Pakistan enjoys, in addition to the Islamic bomb. 

But the Islamic bomb would destroy as many Muslims as non-muslims, rendering it of very little use.

What we're witnessing is the start of a continental scale, asymmeterical war which would dwarf anything the world has witnessed in Iraq over the past 20 years. 

Even educated, prosperous Muslims across the subcontinent view themselves as victims.  This is the preferred psychological state of Muslims across all geographies.  #GrievanceMongering is built into the very fabric of Islam. 

It is this very attitude which fuels Muslim men (and some women) to wage a war against Infidels. 

Pakistan's calculation is sound.  

As Predicted in these two earlier pieces Pakistan has few real options:  

https://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2015/06/pakistan-is-screwed-heres-why.html

https://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2016/08/chinese-acquisition-and-balkanization.html

Pakistan is on life support.  ISI has decided upon a scorched earth strategy.  "If we drown into non-existence, then so will India" seems to be the prevailing wisdom inside the twisted, bigoted minds of Pakistan's leadership. 

Despite their public support for China, and despite the restraint shown by Pakistan's mullah military leadership, it must hurt them deeply, to watch the disdain with which China treats Pakistan and its own muslims. 

Muslims are most touchy about their women.  Islam goes to extraordinary lengths to preserve the imagined 'chastity' of Muslim women.  

To watch Chinese men come to Pakistan in droves, propelled by their lust for Pakistani women, surely cuts deep to the bones. 

China is also acquiring Pakistan at a steady pace.  Just as India is consolidating its own economic future and is poised to break through the shackles of poverty and uneven, anemic economic growth. 

All said and done, Pakistan can choose to sit back and watch its 'Country of the pure' become a footnote in history, watch as its dream of a Green crescent stretching from Arabia to Indonesia, evaporate right in front of its eyes, or it can ignite an inferno. 

An inferno, which will consume the subcontient and lead to a final battle between Muslims and infidels.  A battle they hope to win given the aforementioned demographic edge they now enjoy. 

BalaKot and Beyond - NaMo's spectacular win

1. Paki economy hit - FDI investment wont show up
2. Space created between all out war and nuke threshold i.e. target terror camps and terrorists
3. Win universal support from West, Russia, even China and the Arab world
4. Mute Chinese influence in Indo-Pak conflict
5. Changed narrative from Kashmir to Terror
6. Expose Paki military weaknesses
7. Reduce pressure on Baloch freedom fighters
8. Take calibrated measures to establish an anti-Paki climate in Indian Babudom - Water, MFN, Duties, etc.
9. Justify a massive (future) Indian military build up
10. Drain Paki army by keeping it in a state of constant def con 2-3 alert
11. Make surgical strikes the default option to any future terror strike
12. Discover Paki thresholds - there are many. 
13. Expose Paki military's main concern: To save face
14. Allow India to strategize beyond retribution i.e. to make real moves in POK and beyond

Swarm Warfare: BJP's Strategy for 2019

Swarm Warfare:  a battlefield tactic designed to maximize target saturation, and thereby overwhelm or saturate the defenses of the principal target or objective. 

For over a year now, yours truly has wondered where the hell was BJP heading vis-a-vis its campaign for 2019.  

Nothing seemed to fit.  NDA's lackadaisical attitude on corruption cases, the escape of Mallya and Co, zero progress on RJB movement....and BJP was seemingly stumbling into India's most important battle since Panipat. 

 But as they say - a week is a long time in politics.  

BJP's strategy for 2019 can be summed up in two words:  Swarm Warfare. 

What was perceived by many (me included) as a hands off, soft approach on the part of PM Modi, his govt and his party was instead a subtle 3 part strategy.  

1.  Allow the opposition enough room to spend its ammo and reveal its cards 
2. Keep BJP's own powder dry so as to use it at the opportune moment 
3. Swarm Warfare (more on that later) 

A perfect example of this strategy is the manner in which BJP has resisted the temptation to go after Robert Vadra.  Keeping his cases on a slow, back burner, to be brought to the fore front when a certain Priyanka Vadra steps into the ring. 

It is no coincidence that Deepak Talwar and Rajiv Saxena were  picked up and brought to India 3 months before elections.  This was clearly set up by Indian intelligence.  Notice how neither were allowed to appeal in Dubai courts. 

Now for the Swarm warfare. 

For several weeks now we have witnessed punch and counter punch.  BJP declares 10% reservation, Congress offers universal basic income, BJP counters with Rs. 6000 support.  That is to be expected in election season.  But in addition BJP is unleashing a strike a day.  Ground, Air, Ocean.  

Mamta Sharada scam one day, Vadra ED summons the next, Akhilesh with Ram sevak massacre the third, the news keeps rolling in.  


Just a week back, Karnataka was put in play.  Amateur pundits thought it was another attempt at grabbing the govt.  It was much more than that.  It forced Congress to spend a few crores from its coffers and should prevent it from gathering a sizeable chunk of much needed election funds from this cash rich state. 



As I type this post, Milind Deora has opened a new front in Mumbai, very subtly and back handedly bringing into focus  Congress' dynasty problem.  On the very day Priyanka arrives to set up shop at AICCI's head quarters. 

The idea seems to be to keep Congress and other components of the MGB busy on a daily basis and most importantly in a reactive mode.

This swarm warfare achieves several objectives: 

1. Allows BJP to set the agenda both at a Macro and a local micro level:  The targeting of Mamta, CBN, AY, etc. in their pocket boroughs should insulate BJP against local issues overpowering PM Modi's national campaign 

2. Keeps Opposition in a reactive mode:  Rafale, intolerance, etc. have already lost their sting.  Public is tired of these issues and any doubts engendered by Pappu's blitzkrieg have evaporated, given the clean chit from both the SC and the Indian Air force.  
Congress and MGB in general will find it hard to identify and ride any real issue - either local or national - to topple PM Modi's national campaign. 

3. Tire out the opposition:  Pappu now has to remember more than Rafale.  Moreover, with each swarm attack, UPA's impossible proposition of providing a strong viable govt. falls further down the abyss of public disgust and skepticism.

What should worry UPappuA is that BJP has only just begun.  This strategy seems to have been in the works for several years now. 

Abhi picture baaki hai :-) 

NaMo's Kavach Kundali

Karna's kavach Kundali were a boon given to him by his father.  As long as they remained on his person they made him indestructible.  No weapon could harm him.  His bigheartedness was exploited to steal them from him and make him mortal.  

This story comes to mind as I watch PM Modi's first real political challenge - The emerging chinks in his Kavach Kundali.  

NaMo's greatest political asset - his political Kavach Kundali - is his personal integrity.  As long as he's perceived as being honest and upright and immune to the spoils of political power he remains out of reach of any political weapon - legitimate or illegitimate.  Fair or unfair.  

But the day this armor is pierced he becomes politically mortal.  'Suit Boot ki Sarkar', 'Rafale', '30,000 crore' were all designed to rupture PM's kavach kundali and separate him from his greatest asset. 

Some may argue that this wont happen, cant happen.  That people are smart enough to detect this conspiracy.  But that is not the intention of Sonia's ecosystem.  The objective is to engender enough doubt in people's minds to demoralize BJP's support base and cause a rethink within the 'floating' vote that remains decisive in any contest. 

With 2019 emerging as a 'kante ki takkar', a fight to political death, this doubt, could be enough to sway 2-3% of the vote.  Enough in 30-40 seats to push BJP down to that 220 seats mark where a Congress coalition becomes easier and more viable than a NaMo led NDA formation. 

As suggested here - https://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2015/07/about-time-gloves-came-off-get-sonia-now.html  

PM should have gone after Sonia a lot earlier.  It would have preempted the 'Rafale' conspiracy.  With only 4 months left for polls it may be too late to adopt it now.  

What can he do now?  Play a T20 political match in the Court of People's Opinion (the only court that matters). 

Leak to the public all the evidence unearthed about the Vadra/2G/CWG/etc. scams.  

A media blitzkrieg using social media and NOT BJP's official sources. 

Let the question 'What the hell has the BJP govt. done?' fester for a few weeks and unleash a fresh set of evidence on an almost every daily basis.  

Drown the Congress in its own scam.  Surely such a simply strategy is worth a shot.

Benefits of a BJP Defeat

1. Mayawati is not a possible PM choice of the MGB.  My greatest fear was Maya winning a meaningful number of seats in MP and Chattisgarh and using these wins to bargain for 60 seats in the Hindi heartland making her an undeclared PM candidate of the MGB.  It was the one variable that gave me sleepless nights as explained here - https://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2018/07/countering-mayawati.html














With Pappu emerging as leader of the Main contender Maya is left behind and Pappu becomes the defacto choice of leader of MahaGhatbandhan (MGB)
- Even some BJP veterans are attributing Congress' win to Pappu's emergence a viable counter to NaMo 
- The victories (at time of writing) are very close in both MP and Rajasthan.  This is not the rout anti-BJP forces are celebrating.  

It is the best possible outcome for the BJP.

2. Maya, Mamta will become very upset
Congress' strong showing will mean both Maya and Mamta (and other PM contenders) would have to bury their PM ambitions.  This will not go down well with them.  Congress will be in no mood to form an alliance by playing 2nd or 3rd fiddle in key states.  There's no way Maya gets Congress to concede seats in MP/Rajasthan for accommodation in UP.  What would this to Maya's enthusiasm to join a grand alliance.  An alliance in which she gains nothing but both Pappu and Akhilesh (UP ke ladke) use her as a stepping stone to capture the thrones at center and state levels. 

This may open the space for BJP to suggest an alliance with Maya for accomodation at the state level.  If nothing else, BJP could set the cat amongst the pigeons by insuniating an alliance through strategic media leaks. 


3. BJP wont be complacent
Election management is a necessary, not a sufficient condition to win elections.  BJP has failed to connect the dots for their voters:  Eradication of corruption = Money for development.  Simple messaging trumps complex facts and figures. 

4. Turnout 
One of BJP's biggest weakness is the muted enthusiasm of its supporters.  A massive defeat for BJP would scare BJP's core supporters and even tier 2 and 3 supporters to come out in greater numbers. 

5. A real fear has gripped Hindus.  In the weeks and months ahead, this fear will start spreading like wild fire.  Moreover, as Muslims/Christians start celebrating BJP's defeat their anti-Hindu face will be unmasked.  This has the potential to not only trigger a counter Hindu-consolidation but also drive turnout come election day.  BJP must nurture and harness this fear by (for instance) making tangible progress on Ram Temple or education reforms. 

Countering Mayawati

Mayawati as PM candidate is the latest trial balloon floated by the strategists behind the MahaGathBandhan (MGB).  

And frankly, for the first time, I'm worried about BJP's 2019 chances.  

It is very difficult to attack a woman and a Dalit one at that.   One loose tongued slip up, by a BJP loud mouth will be run by MGB friendly channels on a loop through election day and beyond. 

BJP's old branding as a bania-brahmin party will be resurrected.  Game over. 

It is for this reason that BJP must take a proactive approach to burying Maya before she has a chance to gain her footing. 

There are 3 ways to do this (and neither involve a direct attack): 

1. Document and define Maya's track record as CM in terms of the work she did for Dalits and what little the Dalit community gained from it.  

2. Define Maya as Sonia's version i.e. corrupt to the core and one who gained power so her family would benefit and nothing game the way of aam Dalits. 

3. Portray Maya as Sonia's puppet.  Maya will be used as mascot and after election Congress will install a new puppet or harass Maya into becoming a puppet. 

One last point.  BJP must prepare a crack team to efficiently and expeditiously counter any slip-ups from within BJP or any misinformation that is created by the MGB dirty tricks department. 

Finally, allow BJP sympathisers to go after Maya's corrupt record.  AND have them attack (yes attack) BJP for not going after Maya and putting her behind bars. 

Make Maya as CM the focus and not Maya the woman or Maya the Dalit.

Why Is the Church Targeting PM Modi

It doesnt make sense.  Why on earth would the Catholic church target the PM?  It can only help BJP by consolidating Hindu vote behind them.  Increase Hindu turnout.

There are 2 possible reasons: 

1. Church is in cahoots with BJP (Impossible)
2. Church is hurting

 But the curtailed conversion agenda cannot alone explain the shear aggression and desperation exhibited by the Church. 

There's another reason for this last ditch effort to galvanize the Christian community.  

It is this:  PM's development agenda is providing the basic necessities to India's poor, reducing their dependence on non-state actors such as the conversion NGOs supported by the Church. 

Another 5 years of a Modi Govt. will not only destroy the conversion thrust but rob the church of fresh recruits. 

Given that most neo convert come from the ranks of the poorest of the poor, this market will likely disappear by 2024. 

Though China is seeing a rapid growth in Christians after experiencing economic growth, India is different.  Under Communism, Chinese were left with a spiritual vacuum.  One that attracted Christianity as a natural occupant.  

With its 10,000 year old spiritual tradition, India has no such handicap.  Even the most downtrodden Hindus will remain within their religion if their basic needs are met. 

It is this dual threat that has made the Church hit the panic button. 

The Cardinal's letter is only the first salvo in a battle that has just begun.  International spotlight is just round the corner.  Surely the strategy was devised well in advance.  The Church is both ruthless and extraordinarily intelligent not to enter this battle with a well devised plan to stop the NaMo juggernaut. 

Benami Property - Demonitization 2.0

Demonitization was an unparalleled success.  Because it was seen by the aam aadmi as a bold step with which to defeat India's high and mighty.  Watching everyone from Mulayam to Raj Thackeray to Mamata and ofcourse Sonia, squirm over the destruction of their ill gotten wealth was drug like no other - A drug Indians had never experienced. 

But DeMo is increasingly becoming a non-issue or worse turning against the PM.  Why is that?  

It is seen as a sacrifice asked of and made by India's aam aadmi while little has been done to hurt the big cats - the Sonias/Niravs/Mallyas of the world. 

The halo effect generated by DeMo can be retrieved and deployed in 2019 if PM Modi takes the step he has been promising but hasnt yet delivered - Going after Benami Properties. 

Some have argued that another DeMo like measure would anger and frustrate Indians and hurt BJP's chances in 2019. 

But it is a risk worth taking.  The policy could be fenced in so that its impact on the aam aadmi can be restricted.  As it is the middle and lower middle classes do not own benami real estate. 

Given that DeMo has brought a wide swath of Indians under the tax umbrella, it should be relatively simple to match property records with declared income to quickly identify those who could be owning a property beyond their known sources of income. 

Further more, only properties beyond a certain threshold could be targeted - say greater than Rs. 1 Cr. 

These measures would exclude 95% of Indians.  Watching the high and mighty squirm and sweat as their properties are auctioned off would electrify the electorate and bring back corruption as a central issue. 

Further more, property prices would drop allowing a larger pool of Indians to own homes.  The rising demand would boost the wider economy and add anywhere from 0.2-0.5% to the growth rate. 

It is a near perfect weapon with which to win 2019.  But will the PM bite the bullet?

How to Break Opposition Unity

As I have time and again emphasized, a victory for Congress is keeping BJP to 220 seats.  And the best way to ensure this outcome is for the opposition to unite. 

As I right this a Maha Gatbandhan (MGB) seems like a reach.  But  a MGB is not the only option for opposition unity.  

What I fear most are several local alliances with Congress as the common binding force which gives up in states where it is weaker whilst retaining primacy in its strongholds. 

Local contradictions (Mamta vs. Left, Mulayam vs. Maya, etc.) may force a multi-cornered fight in key states but if Congress can create enough local alliances it could bring BJP down to 220 seats. 

What follows are a few ideas on how to preempt any major alliances for opposition unity. 

1. Congress Mukt Bharat - As a Coalition Buster

Much as congress men and women have come to view the family as the only glue that will hold the party together, regional parties view the Congress the essential glue to piece and hold together an anti-BJP coalition.  With a series of defeats Congress has presented, ambitious local satraps with a tantalizing option - What if Congress Mukt Bharat does come to fruition, can one of them stake claim to helm a new UPA?  

Will a depleted Congress then support a regional leader for PM just to keep the BJP out?  

BJP must promote this angle.  The likes of Mamta, Maya and Mulayam and even Nitish would find such a scenario irresistible. 

BJP's 'go-slow' strategy on 2g scam should be seen in this light.  By putting opposition fears of legal retribution to rest, BJP has established the first precondition to creating this race for supremacy. 

But this strategy can only work if it is carefully calibrated.  In run up to 2004, a similarly depleted Congress was able to give up its claim to PMship which attracted eager PM contenders to the UPA umbrella and the rest is history. 

The idea should be to prevent a coalition from taking shape in the first place. 

Also, not all regional leaders will buy into this strategy.  Some may see Congress as a necessary evil. But even if a few buy into this strategy it would put one more nail in that coalition coffin. 

2. Exposing pro-Jihadi political fronts 

From Owaisi to Akmal most purely Muslim political outfits seem to have a link to global jihadi networks.  Either directly or indirectly through underworld or social connections.  

Congress will need to tie up with these outfit so as to keep minority votes from getting divided.  As a preemptive strike, expose these jihadi linkages and if UPA or its component parties try to tie up with them, use that as one strategy to consolidate Hindu votes.

3. Blasting Benamis

Go after Benami properties and announce elections in the middle of the effort - ensure that those owning legitimate properties arent targeted.  This can be done by using Aadhar data to match against property ownership data.  The process should start around Oct 2018 or earlier.  This act of taking action against massive corruption will remain  unfinished but the measure will garner massive support.  Much like Demonitization, such measures get massive support from the voting segments. 

A few prominent politicians will get ensnared in this web - and that would be the icing on the cake. 





4. Corruption free Mai Baap 

BJP has delivered on its biggest promise - Corruption free Mai Baap - a strategy that has worked wonderfully for BJP in Gujarat -  http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2011/06/understanding-indian-electorate.html 

Homes for poor, bank accounts, Jan Dhan, direct deposit and several such programs are part of this Mai-Baap approach.  An approach sans corruption. 

In terms of policy it is no different from what Congress has offered but the differentiation lies in the corruption-free implementation BJP has delivered. 

BJP must package this achievement with several features 
a) Corruption free
b) Delivered by a Hindu ruler 
c) Direct to people (i.e. eliminating the middle i.e. corrupt men)
d) 5 years of corruption free delivery Vs. 70 years of corruption ridden mess 

To break the coalition BJP must do something they did in 2014 i.e. connect directly with the voter.  So that a large section of (for example) Yadavs and Dalits vote for BJP/NaMo and not their respective caste brethren. 

5. Compare to Congress but more importantly how does it compare to what the benchmark BJP set for itself 

6. War on maoists is on the winning track 

7. Play on the fear most Indians feel - if Congress comes back they will loot all the good work done in past 4 years


 


 
4.The Message:  Foundation is ready, building is under construction

Collapsing Pakistan - How PM Modi is Triggering a Crisis

83% of Dubai's residents are foreign born.  To a varying degree this demographic profile plagues most rich Arab countries.  But what does this have to do with the collapse Pakistan?  

A great deal.  Read on. 

Very early in his tenure, PM Modi undertook several steps to engage key muslim nations across the middle east.  Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Iran to name a few.  To the impatient right winger, NaMo was following the same appeasement script embraced by his predecessors:  Genuflect at the alter of Arabs, with the misguided hope that it would translate into goodwill and votes with India's muslims. 

In reality, PM Modi and his security advisor Ajit Doval were working to a long term plan:  To isolate and strangulate Pakistan, economically, diplomatically and militarily.  

Most Indian Muslims working in the middle east will readily confess to the startling reality of Muslim unity - there's none.  Non-Arab Muslims are treated like dirt.  

Non-locals are not allowed to own property in their name and businesses must be launched in partnership with a local 'sponsor'.  The threat of deportation, hangs like the domiciles' sword over their heads (compare this to how legal residents are treated in western nations).  

On the flip side, Arabs are legitimately afraid of non-Arabs drowning them with shear numbers and taking over their lands.  

In a strange contradiction Islam helps establish the legitimate claim of non-Arabs over Arab lands.  If (as Islam preaches) there are no nations, and hence, no boundaries what prevents non-Arab muslims from laying claim to Arab countries.  Given enough numbers non-Arab muslims could legitimately claim leadership of Islam, side-lining and eventually subduing Arabs.  

It is this fear that (partly) drives Arabs into keeping non-Arabs at arms length, on a tight leash.  And it is this fear that Team Modi has exploited. 

Arabs have reason to fear Pakistanis.  A 200 million strong nation, built exclusively on the idea of Islam's supremacy, can and does claim a right to lead Muslims of the world. 

Arabs on the other hand view Pakistanis as a conquered people.  Former Hindus, conquered by the sword of Allah.  

PM Modi has played on these fears to encourage Arabs to employ more Indian Muslims in lieu of their Pakistani counterparts.  Crashing oil prices have led to massive layoffs.  Saudi citizens need jobs and are being forced to work for the first time in a generation.  

This economic slowdown has resulted in layoffs with Pakistanis being the first to be put on the chopping block. Arabs prefer the more docile and subservient Indian & Bangladeshi Muslims.

Remittances from NRP represent Pakistan's single largest source of foreign exchange.  Stagnating or dipping remittances puts a severe burden on Pakistan's ability to service foreign debt, pay for imports, etc. 

Pakistan's economy rests on 3 pillars: 

1. Remittances 
2. Foreign Aid 
3. Exports 

Exports have hit an all time low.  A combination of competition and political instability have kept foreign investment at bay.  

Massive incentives given by the Indian government to textile exporters has led a huge losses for their Pakistani counterparts. 

Textiles are Pakistan's single largest industry, employing millions and bringing in much needed foreign exchange. 

On other 'aid' front, Team NaMo has convinced Uncle Sam to delay if not completely eschew supporting a teetering Pakistani economy via loans, waivers, etc. . 

Even Pakistan's owner - China - has refused to offer a bail out package beyond the deeply flawed CPEC scam. 

With all three avenues squeezed, Pakistan is approach a tipping point.  Pakistan holds just enough Forex to pay for 2-3 months of imports. 

Under these conditions it will be forced to seek foreign bail out packages, dictated by foreign lenders - lenders who are controlled by the West. 

Conditions for bailout will definitely include ending support to all forms of terror and could extend to the elimination of their nuclear program. 

But most importantly, it will leave Pakistan with few easy options.  End support to terror and the Jihadi backlash will trigger a civil war. 

Accept more Chinese support and mortgage an even bigger slice of Pakistan to the Dragon. 

Accept American terms and forever end its dream of capturing Kashmir. 

But the most likely scenario is the dismemberment of Pakistan.  And that seems to be a common goal both Uncle Sam and PM Modi are working toward. 




 

2019 Wont be 2014 - Martyr Vs. Crusader

From 2002 through 2014, PM Modi was hounded by India's Evil political empire.  An honest man of impeccable personal integrity was targeted for one and one reason alone.  He refused to play ball.  He refused to be drafted into the evil ecosystem that had ruled and ruined India for 70 years. 

They tried everything, media hit jobs, outlandish allegations, internal sabotage, CBI and judiciary....but nothing worked.  In fact, every attack helped gain even more sympathy for the CM and raised his profile across India. 

 He was an honest man fighting for his god forsaken country. A man willing to be martyred in the battle for his long enslaved motherland. 

It worked spectacularly.  People handed PM Modi a massive mandate to go from being a Martyr to a Crusader. 

While PM Modi has imbibed the true meaning of his mandate he seems to have omitted a vital piece i.e. to launch a no holds barred crusade against that anti-India evil empire. 

People expected a parade of UPA ministers and even the Queen's clan to be dragged from courts to prison to bail petitions to media trials.....

 Rightly or wrongly Indians perceive the PM as an all powerful Superman.

In his desire to rise above the tu-tu-mai-mai  of politics PM Modi has decided to continue with his tried and tested strategy to play the Martyr i.e. use opposition's dirty tricks to gain public sympathy.  

This is a dangerous strategy.  Here's why. 

A  PM who can shake the very foundations of India's financial system with a a one-two punch has, it is fair to assume, the wherewithal to go after Sonia.  No matter how powerful she may appear. 

Certainly any action against Sonia comes with its own risks.  Chief among them being any political sympathy she may gain by playing the wronged widow. 

But those risks far outweigh facing the wrath of a disappointed voter who elected PM Modi to go after the looters aof Mother India.  

PM Modi has a choice to make - keep playing the Martyr or refashion himself as the Crusader and spend the next 18 months pursuing every piece of corruption against Sonia and her clones.

Failure to getting conclusive evidence against UPA's big guns will seriously dilute BJP's position vis-a-vis corruption and furnish Sonia with enough political room to rid herself of the taint. 

After all it was CM Modi who blunted every allegation of corruption thrown at him by pointing out that the all powerful central govt. had failed to produce an iota of evidence to prove their outlandish allegations.  

What would prevent Sonia from using the same argument in  2019?

 

Is it Time to Panic?

1. May 2019 is a 19 months away. What seemed like a mere formality is increasingly looking like an uphill task. 

2. BJP has sensed it, hence the deeply flawed strategy to induct Narayan Rane into Maharastra cabinet

3.  As explained in earlier posts, a major operation in POK is a real possibility.  But war (no matter how successful) may not help politically.  Do it too close to May 2019 and you're accused of using war as a political weapon.  Use it too early and the effect gets dissipated.

4. A section of Middle class is turning against NaMo with a vengeance.  

The loss of a dedicated vote bank may or may not be offset by new voters garnered via successful schemes such as Jan Dhan, Mudra, 24x7 Power.  

BJP has remained sanguine, comforted by a nonexistent opposition and a still born Maha Gaat Bandhan (MGB)

But middle class anger has created an 'opposition' of sorts - NOTA - None of the Above.  Even if it does not appear on the ballot, disgruntled BJP supporters are likely to express their opposition by not showing up on polling day.  

5. Corruption as a political Issue is dead - BJP killed it
Induction of Narayan Rane and the complete lack of progress on investigations into major scams has neutralized (partially if not fully) corruption as a potent political issue. 

Juxtaposed against DeMo where honest, hardworking (albeit tax evading) middle class Indians were forced to part with their hard earned wealth, the absence of any real action against Vadra and Co could prove particularly costly come election day.  

6. The curse of a massive mandate
Indians havent reached a level of sophistication where they can differentiate between powers held by central, state and local govts.  With a massive mandate they have super expectations from the super government they helped place in office. 

And their super expectations are seemingly insatiable.

There are simply no excuses for BJP to not deliver on its promises.

 7. Indian Myopia
Indians do not think beyond the narrow domains of their daily lives and their immediate circle of friends and family. 

Take for instance the falling for state after Indian state to rising tide of Islamism.  In any other country, states the size of West Bengal becoming Islamic strongholds would have engendered panic across the nation.  Not in India.  Indians as a group (there are a few exceptions) a just too myopic to see beyond their noses. 

This mindset creates a major political hurdle.  Great work done in India's hinterland - rural electrification for instance - will have no real impact on voter preferences in most cities. 

Without visible, tangible change in their daily lives, voters will not acknowledge the stellar work done by the Modi government. 

8. The rapid spread of the BJP 
At first glance we should be celebrating BJP's rapid spread.  It will only help in the years ahead but this success creates a problem in 2019.  With BJP in absolute control of both central and state governments, there's simply no excuse left to no deliver on its promises. 

The bridge collapse at Elphinstone is the canary in the coal mine.  BJP governments must take corrective actions.  All the fantastic work done in 3 years could get wiped out if BJP isnt reelected.  

Here are a few ideas:

1. Focus on the basics
There are several 'low hanging fruits' at the urban level.  De-congesting urban areas could yield immediate and tangible results. 
Every city should have a satellite township which has easy access to the city.  The resulting construction boom would trigger job and wealth creation. 

2. Chart an Urban Indian's daily life
What can the govt do to improve this?  Have both a short term and long term strategy - to be implemented in parallel.  For examplee.  No more hawkers on public streets could be part of the swach Bharat program. Hawkers could be identified and moved to specially built shopping zones.  Say a once a week 'Mela' at major public grounds.  With the long term goal being the construction of 'Hawker malls'.  

This would have a visible, tangible and immediate impact on lives of Indians without hurting the livelihood of hawkers. 

3. Education 
What is preventing the govt. from permitting private players from entering the primary education sector in a very big way.   If handled correctly, high quality institutions could be launched in a matter of months.  The fringe benefits alone justify this strategy and it a great deal of work to get it done. 

Example:  Maharashtra govt announced the opening up of higher education sector to private players in the early 1980s.  The first colleges launched were laughable.  One college had a lab constructed next to a cowshed. 

Today those same institutions are highly sophisticated institutions sort after by students from all across India and from foreign countries. 

4. Medical Tourism 
High costs are the primary challenge confronting the global health care industry.  The govt. can launch dedicated SEZs focused on health care.  The Jobs and Forex generation potential is unlimited. 
The ancillary economic and political benefits are staggering. 
 

Final piece of unsolicited (humble) advice:  Dont let 'Perfect' be the enemy of 'Good'.

 

Short Game Over Long Game - Has PM Modi his own Magic Mantra #Elphinston

I can claim with the least bit of exaggeration that I have watched every speech made by CM Modi.  Every speech that was posted on Youtube.  

His first reelection bit in 2007 was won on the basis of a corruption free sarkar which provided 24x7 power and implemented several small but targeted schemes with a level of efficiency seldom seen in India. 

One of these 'smaller' schemes was the building of 1 lakh plus check dams across Gujarat which helped put Gujarat on the map as an agricultural state. 

In addition urban Gujarat was helped by small schemes of its own.  CM Modi was fond of displaying his success by saying "Every where you go in Gujarat you will see signs of progress.  A bus stand here, a public bathroom there, a new school here...."  and so on and so forth.  

His Long game (24x7 Power, Investor summit, etc.) was strong even then, but it was supplemented by a very strong, locally focused short game.  

This short game resulted in locally focused, visible signs of progress.  It reinforced the CM's claims that he was working tirelessly to bring them progress. 

Clearly, a PM cannot get 'local' beyond a certain point.  Building a Foot-over-Bridge must be the responsibility of the local officials.  

But the nature of 2014's mandate is such that every failure will be pinned on  the PM.  The upside to this dynamic is that credit for every success will also land at his feet.  

Through design or by accident, 2019 may evolve into a contest, not between NDA and UPA or 2014 vs. 2019 but between BJP and BJP i.e. a referendum on its performance.  UPA's scams may be drowned in the media created noise of how BJP hasnt delivered on its big promises.

Indians have a very short memory and more importantly they see Govt. as govt. Trying to explain to them that an MP cannot solve local problems falls on deaf ears. 

A string of tragedies, most, if not all of which should be laid at the door step of previous Congress govts. are becoming closely associated with BJP's record of governance. 

A middle class struggling with GST and Demonitization are fertile breeding grounds for media's new campaign "BJP doesnt work".

Early feedback suggests this campaign is gaining traction even with BJP voters.  Left unaddressed it could snatch vital seats from the BJP. 

 BJP may feel that it could replace its die-hard, loyal middle class voters with their new found Dalit/MBC/OBC/Poor voters.  

But this segment is even more fickle than the middle class.  Given promises of bigger sops could trigger an electorally significant exodus towards a fresh faced UPA. 

The bottom line is this:  PM Modi must go back to his time as CM and introduce some of the 'short game' that made him unbeatable in Gujarat.  

Start with 'Garib Kalyan Mela'

GST, Demontization and 2019

It would seem that an almost relentless pounding from Sonia's evil ecosystem has finally found its mark.  If not on the bulls eye plate, on the wall from which said bull's eye is hanging. 

 The double whammy of Modi sarkar's operation clean up - Demo and GST - has India's middle and upper middle class reeling.  Prices have shot up.  High end Real estate markets in most major cities have crashed.  PM Modi's old enemies (and some new ones) have emerged from the wood work with the same old doomsday scenario. 

[Before I go any further, let me point out that there's a real danger of the Modi Sarkar being branded as 'arrogant' and the charge sticking.  An anti-middle class, 'suit boot ki sarkar'.  BJP cannot afford to lose its middle class stronghold.  One that has stood by it through thick and thin.  More on this later]

But like those previous predictions, this latest one may also prove to be off the mark.  There are two reasons for this: 

1. Modi Sarkar has plenty of time for both Demo and GST to play out and settle down. 

2. Narendra Damodardas Modi 

Allow me to take you down memory lane.  By 2006 I had become convinced that NaMo was the future.  I was scrutinizing his track record with a level of brutal honesty that I had never used for any other political leader.  It was a natural outcome of belonging to a generation betrayed by a string of 'Great Brown Hopes' - From Rajiv Gandhi to VP Singh and finally LK Advani. 

One of CM Modi's greatest achievements in his first full term as CM (From 2002 to 2007) was delivery 24x7 uninterrupted power to Gujarat and turning Gujarat Power board from a loss making entity to a financially healthy and self sustainable body. 

This was a stellar achievement in a country where even the capital city experienced major load shedding - that very Indian euphemism for extended power cuts. 

In the process of implementing his vision, CM Modi had imposed stringent penalties of power thieves.  A key segment in this group of power thieves were a section of farmers.  No political party had ever survived by confronting the Agri lobby.  Post independence Indian political history was littered with obituaries of leaders who had tried to tame this politically potent, electorally powerful group. 

CM Modi had not only stopped power theft but imposed stringent penalties and filed court cases against farmers for stealing power.  A group accustomed to never paying for power was being held accountable. Over 1 lakh farmers were in the dock. 

In mid 2007 Arun Jaitley (AJ) was appointed state incharge for Gujarat elections to be held in early December of the same year. 

News reports were gleefully predicting an electoral setback for CM Modi thanks to his tough stand on power thefts and confronting the agri lobby.  

Several credible news reports claimed that AJ made a passionate plea to CM Modi to rescind his orders, withdraw cases filed against farmers.   Failing which he risked losing the imminent, make or break election. 

NaMo refused to make any concessions.  Come what may. 

Now consider the scenario in 2007.  CM Modi had been painted as public enemy No. 1.  Even his own party men were keeping a distance from him.  A set back in 2007 would not only mean the end of his political career.  His enemies would not sit back and allow him to fade into the sunset.  They would come after him, with all means possible.  His assassination was a real possibility.  

Despite these odds NaMo stood firm and did not deviate from his path.  

I was both petrified and curious.  What the hell was this man thinking.  Electoral cost of announcing an amnesty was minimal.  The risk of not announcing one was unimaginable. 

When BJP pulled off an almost 2/3rds majority I was curious to find out how the Agri section had voted.  It took a few months, but around March 2008 post-election analysis threw up a pleasant surprise.  The very segments on which CM Modi had imposed a 'draconian' regulation had voted for him in unprecedented numbers. 

NaMo and his convictions had won.  

Demo and GST are likely to witness a similar outcome.  There's a very simple reason for this.  His personal integrity. 

Hun Khato Nathi, Khava Deto Nathi - I dont take or tolerate bribes. 

His clean, unblemished track record of preventing corruption creates an impregnable shield around him.  It allows him to take harsh measures because people perceive it as an honest attempt to fix India's ugly, exploitative system. 

Once the shock of GST dissipates and prices stabilize, even his most vocal critics will come round to the view that he has done the right thing. 

Take Real Estate for instance.  Only a very tiny fraction of Indians could afford to buy a house worth more than Rs. 10 lakhs.  Let that sink in.  You couldnt find a hut in Mumbai's slums for that amount. 

A million dollars would fetch you a spacious beach front condo in Miami.  In pre Demo Mumbai Rs. 6.7 crores would fetch you what?  A tiny apartment in Bandra, on noisy crowded street with access to schools with little space and exorbitant fees.  

Pre Demo India was an India built for the tiny minority of upper middle class.  A class that had circumvented the need to engage with the govt. apart from securing the necessary certificates and licenses.  Upper middle class India had insulated itself from India. 

You couldnt really blame them.  A corrupt, cruel political/bureaucratic system had little to offer this class.  Given the chance they had found ways around it.  

Private schools, tanker supplied water, access to colleges in America/Europe were just some of the luxuries this class could afford. 

And mind you, I belong to this class.  I know them like the back of my hand. 

Even the middle class aspires to this strata and a large number do achieve the upgrade within a decade. 

The resulting wealth gap is what brought NaMo to power.  As people absorb the importance and imperative nature of his moves, they will certainly come round to share his wisdom. 

18 months allows for this realization to sink in.  But these 18 months are crucial. 

PM Modi will have to take additional steps (which I'm certain he has in the pipeline) for the been fits of a common market to sink in. 

For instance, my trader friends have highlighted an important benefit of GST.  With agri goods moving more expeditiously, wastage is coming down which has translated into increased supply.  This should help stabilize prices of essential commodities. 

But more needs to be done.  The massive upgrade to India's road and power networks should be leveraged to attract private players such as FedEx and Deutche Post to build transportation hubs.  

GST makes a national transportation grid a real possibility.  

Further more, BJP needs to focus on addressing concerns related to its urban middle class vote.  One such area is Education.  A sensible policy which brings in private players would go a long way in increasing seats and upgrading existing govt schools. 

There's no reason why BJP cannot offer land and other incentives for private schools to be opened by Indians.  Foreign investment could be restricted to higher education.

The battle began on May 14th 2014.  BJP has neither won it nor lost it.  But as explained in previous posts, 220 seats is still a 'defeat' for the BJP.