Lessons from Karnataka – (A few quick) Random Thoughts and Predictions

 

1.       You can’t go to war with a message that says: “Vote for us, we’re less corrupt”

2.       When attacked by CONgress, aim for the Queen and her brood. 

a.       Even if you get buried by CBI, etc. you will emerge a martyr, a hero to your people

b.      You could even play the regional card like NTR did when Rajiv humiliated AP CM

3.       BJP starts with a 20-25% handicap

a.       Minority voters will gang up against BJP

b.      Most states have a threshold of 40% vote share to win a comfortable majority of seats

                                                               i.      Having a lock on 20% minority votes gives CONgress a huge head start

                                                             ii.      While BJP has to win half of the remaining 80%, CONgress has to win just 25% of these votes to cross the aforementioned threshold

                                                            iii.      As explained here - http://centreright.in/2011/06/political-market-segmenttarget-and-deliver/#.UYr34CnD_mI  BJP’s real pool of voters come from approx.65 to 70% of voters.  10% non-minority voters (the elite) rarely vote

                                                           iv.      This further dents BJP’s chances

4.       BJP’s voter base is different

a.       This has been evident since (at least) 2005 when the Pramod Mahajan scandal broke

                                                               i.      If BJP is perceived as CONgress’ mini-me, BJP’s voter base will simply sit it out

                                                             ii.      CONgress, Mayawati, SP, etc have dedicated caste and religious vote banks that have a different set of demands beyond good and clean governance

                                                            iii.      BJP’s vote bank demands – Clean AND Good Governance

                                                           iv.      Hindutva is a nice to have.  Unlike RoL and RoP voters, BJP voters will not forgive/overlook a shady leadership which swears by Hindutva

                                                             v.      NaMo is the best example of this maxim – Clean and Good Governance with Hindutva elements kept on a short lease, in Hindutva’s original laboratory

5.       Mayawati’s win in 2007 was the first indication that people are tired of coalitions and instability

a.       When much-abused Brahmins voted for her in large numbers, days of coalition politics were numbered

                                                               i.      Mayawati 2007

                                                             ii.      UPA2    

                                                            iii.      Maharashtra 2009

                                                           iv.      UP 2012

                                                             v.      Gujarat 2012

b.      But there’s a caveat and it is this

                                                               i.      To harness a decisive mandate, voters must be presented a clear choice

                                                             ii.      At the national level NaMo is the only option and given a clear choice people will give him (not the BJP) a decisive mandate

c.       Example:  If Maharastra was presented with a decisive leader with a  can-do attitude/reputation, CONgress-NCP would be history

6.       Karnataka results are a warning for both Sonia and BJP’s D4: Your days are numbered

a.       Karnataka results suggest a high level of voter awareness

b.      A well informed voter is a decisive voter

c.       Most importantly Indian voter is PISSED OFF

d.      The anger is palpable – Politics of Patronage and cynicism is on its last legs

7.       The biggest winner of Karnataka Polls:  Narendra Modi

a.       “Here he goes again” before you spout that sentiment read this carefully

b.      BJP has little choice left

c.       Resolve of BJP’s cadre will grow stronger vis-à-vis NaMo

d.      With LKA and AK identified as villains any attempts to engineer a coup in their favor will be met with an open cadre-led revolt

e.      Fear of UPA3 will grow with this Karnataka win and make BJP voters more eager to vote – ensuring solid turnout

f.        Complacency will be rooted out “Remember Karnataka”

g.       Just as massive mandates have led to a short honeymoons and rapid voter disenchantment in UP and Bihar, so will Karnataka regret its mistake within 12 months – just in time for the LS elections

h.      With 9 CM contenders and a political machine hungry after 7 years in the wilderness, scams will multiply – BJP must prepare to pounce

i.         Karnataka will become Exhibit A of all that is wrong with the CONgress

8.       When allegations of corruption emerge – act swiftly and decisively

a.       What destroyed BJP in Karnataka was not the removal of Yeddy but the accompanying drama

b.      LKA was able to bounce back from Jain-hawala scandal thanks to his prompt resignation and his pledge not to return to public office till his name was cleared

c.       Try to enforce strong discipline amongst local and national leadership vis-a-vis corruption

                                                               i.      NaMo’s perfect reputation shielded him from lethal political vendetta

                                                             ii.      Learn from it

9.       Corruption has emerged as THE issue

a.       Contrary to conventional wisdom it was corruption that destroyed BJP’s chances

10.   In politics 1+1 is not always = 2.  If Yeddy had stayed in the BJP, CONgress would have gotten only slightly fewer seats.

11.   At best, BJP would have been forced into a coalition with JDS.  A disastrous move for 2014

12.   Recognize CONgress’ game plan – its favorite MO

a.       Divide opposition votes

                                                               i.      Either engineer splits – Keshubhai, Yeddy or

                                                             ii.      Create new opposition parties – RajT, Chiru, Kejriwal

b.      BJP must guard against these entities and neutralize them by

                                                               i.      Either co-opting them or

                                                             ii.      Destroying their credibility

13.   Arvind Kejriwal’s party will emerge as single largest party in Delhi or the main opposition party

a.       Delhi BJP is perceived as CONgress’s B-team

b.      SheilaD survives in Delhi the same way Sonia survives in India – on the tacit support of BJP’s opposition leadership

c.       AAP presents the aforementioned, viable alternative, capable of harnessing voter disenchantment

 

Managing the ‘NOISE’ cycle and the Karnataka Conundrum

A few weeks back I predicted the use of ‘Noise’ as a political weapon by NaMo’s enemies in the CONgress.  Needless to say, they haven’t disappointed us.

 

What is NOISE?

 

Every minor issue is magnified and turned into ‘Breaking News’ to saturate the day’s news cycle.  CONgress did this successfully with the manufactured ‘Ram Sene’ episode in 2009 and it is turning to its tried and test tricks to do the same with NaMo in 2014.

 More importantly, running this 'Noise' in a loop helps establish it as the gospel truth, which in turn helps define the opposition.


American politicians have invented this modern day political weapon.  (Google: Swift boating of John Kerry by Team Bush)


Indian examples:

 1.      'Ram Sene' pub incident in 2009 (which painted BJP as regressive and consumed vital news cycle on eve of the 2009 elections)

 2.      $ 16,000 controversy over US Delegation’s visit to Gujarat

 3.      And the latest:  ‘NaMo must lead the Karnataka assembly campaign’

Obviously Karnataka is a trap.  Damned if he does, Damned if he doesn’t. 

 It’s a no-win situation for NaMo and at the very least will provide enough fodder for CONgress to challenge the NaMo-wave that is clearly forming across the country - http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2012/11/next-24-months.html

 

Karnataka BJP has shot itself in the foot.  Instead of pitting Yeddy’s nepotism against Sonia’s Vadragate, they have managed to create a second Kalyan Singh.  All signals suggest, Karnataka is going the way of UP.  The similarities are startling:  A strong local satrap, a star performer, with alleged soft spot for an attractive, younger colleague, accused of promoting family interests, done in by national leadership for their personal political gains.

With no local face, and a fragmented BJP leadership, Karnataka election is likely to produce a hung assembly as a best case scenario.  Worst case: CONgress wins a clear majority.

NaMo does not possess a magic potion that can remedy this situation, certainly not with a few weeks of campaigning. 

 So how does NaMo win the NOISE cycle?

 CONgress’ basic argument is that Rahul led from the front in a no-win state like UP (and earlier Bihar) whereas NaMo is shying away from taking the plunge in Karnataka.

 Let’s look at the key differences:

1.       Rahul was given complete control of these states well in advance (4 years for Bihar and 8 years for UP)

2.       He could have hand-picked each and every candidate (which he did)

3.       He could have appointed a capable CM candidate in each state to lead the charge

4.       He could have selected the issues to be highlighted

          a.       And he did, with the manufactured Bhata Parsaul controversy

5.       He could have presented fresh ideas

6.       He could have micro-managed the course of local party units – from voter registration to booth management

7.       He was given unlimited resources to win these states

Yet Rahul failed.  And failed miserably.

NaMo has no such luxuries. 

By highlighting the aforementioned differences between Rahul’s UP/Bihar campaigns we can (at least partially) neutralize this clamor to have NaMo lead Karnataka BJP.

Basic Argument: Give NaMo half the time and resources put at Rahul's disposal and watch how he turns every BJP unit around - not just Karnataka.  But with only a few weeks of campaigning, local factors will dominate. 

NaMo is bound to win LS 2014 for BJP in Karnataka and other states as national issues will be in play and BJP will have a clear leader - NaMo.

Let’s do this early so that CONgress' latest ‘Ram Sene’ missile is nipped in the bud.

p.s.

Official BJP spokespersons may or may not be able to articulate these arguments.  But non-BJP, pro-NaMo panelists could certainly make them on live TV and the social media.

 

 

 

 

Wake up America, Smell the coffee

Wake Up America

An old joke appeared in MAD magazine toward the end of the cold war.

American foreign policy: If they are with us, they are “Freedom Fighters”, if they are against us they are “Terrorists”

The ‘War on Terror’ and its selective (and at times) baseless targeting of Islamic terrorists has eroded the last semblance of moral high ground that the west once enjoyed.  Only the completely oblivious and uninformed sections of American society believe their wars are a righteous crusade against the forces of evil.

A sense of self-preservation may unite Americans behind their government’s war efforts, but the moral high ground was lost when President Bush spent a trillion dollars and ‘wasted’ thousands of brave American soldiers on a figment of his overactive ‘hunch’.  There were no WMDs.

The 11 year long ‘War on Terror’ has affected every American, either directly – with the injury to/loss of a loved one or close acquaintance.  The apathy and cynicism this political manipulation has bred, is reflected in continued electoral dominance of Democrats.

This is not to suggest that Americans are any less patriotic.  Not at all.  If anything, Americans are now more engaged than at any time since the end of the cold war.

The ‘pragmatic’ foreign policy of successive American administrations seems to have engendered a ‘pragmatic’ patriotism. 

Though most countries around the world loved, respected and envied the American way of life, no one was fooled by American rhetoric on human rights and democracy.

Given this backdrop, it seems almost comical when American law makers and bureaucrats lecture Indians on the ‘reasons’ for refusing NaMo a visa which, by the way, he has never requested.

(Perhaps even more comical are Indian leftists and Jihadists who spout ‘Death to America’ as their daily mantra and celebrate NaMo’s visa problems. Huh?)

On one level, America’s pragmatic foreign policy is admirable, as it eschews hypocritical virtue (Ex: Non-alignment movement) in the Interest of what is most vital to American interests.

India should learn from this mindset.

Successive administrations, both Republican and Democrat, have followed the same pragmatic principle – American interest is paramount.  Not human rights, not environmental concerns, not equitable distribution of resources but American Interest.

Given this context, what is a tad amusing (bewildering even) is the continued reluctance of American leadership to engage India’s Prime Minister in waiting – Narendra Modi.

Perhaps, they need more hard evidence.  The kind of evidence which can only come from a firm kick in the pants.

American policy makers must realize that their continued delay in engaging with Mr. Modi could prevent them from profiting from what is likely to be the next great economic boom, triggered by a NaMo led India.

Indians of every hue love all things American.  But by allowing vested (traditionally anti-American) interests to prevent a meaningful engagement with a duly elected leader of a sovereign, democratic nation, America is diluting the pragmatic self-interest which has for decades guided her every move.

Such a flawed strategy will backfire on America and provide its European and Asian competitors to gain a vital head start in cornering vast untapped markets which will emerge once NaMo takes over as PM.

It is time American policy makers wake up.

 

Raj Thackeray 1.5

Raj 1.5:  Raj Thackeray’s new strategy – a few random thoughts

Watching Raj Thackeray’s recent rallies, one can’t help but discern a definite shift in strategy.

Where Raj 1.0 was a brute force ‘Luca Brasi’, Raj1.5 is clearly better organized.  Not yet a ‘Vito Corleone’ but getting there. 

Notice, I’m not yet willing to assign a Raj2.0 version number to his most recent avatar.  Not yet.

In the three rallies held thus far, he has spent a mere 5% of his speech targeting ‘outsiders’.  More importantly, most of this targeting happened in his very first speech.  With each speech, the attack has focused on Maharashtra’s political leadership.  Namely, the Pawar clan.

Some of us have been hoping he would make such a shift.  And this ‘better late than never’ change in direction augurs well for Maharashtra’s politics and India’s future.

As explain here - http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2012/02/understanding-rise-of-raj-thackeray.html - Maharashtra is facing a huge political vacuum.  The present day leadership, cutting across party lines, is severely compromised.  Decades long prosperity has created financial gold mines.  Even petty politicians are reaping a windfall.  Political affiliations do not matter; these crooks have clearly earmarked their respective turfs, enforcing a political détente where the only victims are impoverished and helpless citizens.

Recent drought is only the latest manifestation of the political bankruptcy prevailing across Maharashtra.

Shiv Sena is allowed to preserve its hold over BMC (with a budget which exceeds that of most small states), CONgress keeps parts of Mumbai and the sugar belt, NCP keeps rest of Maharashtra with a  few bones thrown at BJP leadership to keep them in good humor.

More importantly, Sharad Pawar’s genius (or lack of political integrity) in presenting himself as the whore of Bombaylon, willing to align with any Delhi leadership which will preserve his fiefdom, ensures that no significant political challenge is ever presented by local or national leadership.

As Maharashtrians have come to this realization, a deep sense of despondency has crept into their engagement with the political establishment.  Saglech Chor – all are thieves - is a common refrain.

An electorate gripped by such disdain and hatred for politicians gives up on the democratic process, perpetuating the very political class they have come to detest.

Step in Raj Thackeray.

Given the very limited evidence presented by the 3 recent speeches, Raj Thackeray seems to have realized the following:

1.       The ‘other’, the ‘outsider’ can only become a boogeyman when voters have had experience with ‘negative’ effects of dealing with ‘outsiders’.  Vast parts of Maharashtra are untouched by ‘outsiders’.  Which limits its scope, restricting its efficacy as a voter catcher

2.       Across all regions, castes and religious segments, Maharashtra’s politician is now perceived as enemy No. 1.  This includes the BJP.  That alone can explain BJP’s decline across traditional strongholds like Vidharba

3.       Harping on outsiders, while pressing issues such as drought, lack of infrastructure, corruption are destroying Maharashtra, simply doesn’t cut it with most Maharashtrians.

a.       You can only blame outsiders for so much.  There are no outsiders in Vidharbha, so what explains the 12,000 farmer suicides and continuing decline in agriculture and overall economy

4.       Maharashtrian asmita is becoming a factor.  As Maharashtra watches NaMo transform a perennially drought ridden Gujarat into an agricultural juggernaut, Maharastrians are left wondering, why can’t we have a NaMo

5.       Raj Thackeray seems to have gauged the writing on the wall.  Development as a political issue has arrived

I believe this subtle change in strategy will benefit Raj Thackeray tremendously.  As predicted years ago, the departure of Balsaheb will accrue most of his constituency to Raj Thackeray.  He’s the rightful heir to the big Man’s political legacy.

In every speech Raj Thackeray has taken great care not to speak disparagingly about Maharashtra’s senior politicians.  Even when he criticizes them he uses proxies or first acknowledges their age and the respect it deserves.

By doing so, he’s subtly appealing to Maharashtra’s older generation which has remained immune to his appeal.  The Youth of Maharashtra is lining up behind him. 

Another key factor is his clear tilt toward the NDA.  In praising Nitish Kumar at his Solapur rally, he has tried to build bridges to ensure future induction into the NDA.

He’s working to a plan.

He has taken care not to directly target SharadP.  That would be suicidal.  Vast sections of Maharashtra where SharadP has helped create (or maintain) pockets of prosperity, SharadP still reigns supreme.  By targeting his nephew Ajit, Raj Thackeray has targeted SharadP by proxy.

SharadP is no babe in the woods.  He helped create Raj Thackeray by unleashing him 4 years prior to the 2010 elections.  He’s the grand master of this game.

Raj Thackeray better watch his back.  The Empire Always Strikes Back.

Conspiracy Behind Afzal/Kasab Hangings

My initial reading on the Afzal Guru execution was more on conventional lines - http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2013/02/making-sense-of-afzal-gurus-hanging.html

A ham handed attempt on the part of Sonia’s war room to prevent a Hindu/Urban consolidation behind NaMo.  Upon further analysis though a sinister motive has emerged.

This theory is based on connecting the dots.  I have no ‘inside’ information.

Let’s examine these dots.

Dot Number 1:

Conventional wisdom fails to explain how a minority vote hungry CONgress would expose itself to the accusation of punishing Muslims but letting Hindus off the hook.

Hindu/Urban vote has always been a floating, splintered entity.  Minority vote on the other hand is a rock solid electoral block.  How does a minority appeasing CONgress make a 180 degree turn without the guarantee of an alternate segment to replace it?  More importantly, these actions permit regional players like SP and BSP to corner the minority vote.

Dot Numbers 2, 3 and 4:

Kasab and Afzal are hanged within weeks of each other.  Timing of Afzal Guru’s hanging in particular is perplexing.  But add Shinde’s “Hindu” terror remark to the mix and suddenly a different (more sinister) picture emerges.

Dot Number 5:

As soon as news of Afzal’s hanging went public, the usual pseudos ramped up their ‘but what about perpetrators of Gujarat carnage’ diatribe.

These pseudos serve as proxies for the grievance mongering that as afflicted minority politics for the past several decades.  Muslims are never to be blamed for their own backwardness, muslims take to terror because they have been wronged, muslims are victims.

This constant harping on Hindu Terror, Gujarat riots, etc. is laying the ground work to justify a retaliatory attack on Hindu targets.

Dot Number 5:

Beheading of Indian soldiers.  The timing makes no sense.  There was no provocation.  Were Jihadis testing the waters?  How would Indians react if a popular leader was assassinated? Surely riots would ensue, but would the Indian state start a war?

Dot Number 6:

There’s a well-established precedence wherein serious political threats to the Dynasty have been neutralized.  I have never believed the canard behind Pramod Mahajan’s killing.  There was more to it.  His brother never admitted to the killing and died of brain hemorrhage while in prison.  More importantly, his assassination came within months of ABV anointing him his successor by calling him BJP’s Laxman behind LKA’s Ram. 

Similarly Madhavrao Scindia, Rajesh Pilot and Jitendra Prasad died in accidents or under questionable circumstances within months of each other.

This trend follows the mysterious death of Lal Bahadur Shastri – The finest PM India has had.  And one who could have buried the Dynasty forever.

Dot Number 7:

NaMo represents just such a threat.  He could send modern India’s Mughal dynasty to the political dumpster where it belongs.  Most importantly next generation of Dynasty scions are too young and do not carry the Gandhi name to be in position to recover ground if NaMo comes to power.

With the Sangh and the larger Hindu ummah lining up behind NaMo, he’s becoming unstoppable.  And once he assumes power it will become impossible to dislodge him.

It is a case of now or never for the dynasty.

So here’s the bottomline:

Kasab/Afzal were hanged to provoke retaliation from terror cells.  Surely, these cells have been preparing for just such a day.

Narendra Modi must guard against such an assassination attempt.  This campaign season exposes him.

Most importantly, Dynasty cannot afford to fail.  They’ll have one shot at him.  If they fail he becomes larger than life.

May Goddess Bhavani protect her favorite son.  Jai Mata Di.  

Making Sense of Afzal Guru's Hanging

The Politics behind Afzal Guru’s unexpected execution

There’s a broad agreement on one issue.  Afzal Guru was hanged with an eye on emerging political scenario.  This sudden appeal to nationalistic voters makes little sense.  When execution of a Pakistani terrorist like Ajmal Kasab feeds minority grievance mongering and backfires on secular parties, why the sudden alacrity in executing (an Indian) Afzal Guru?  Let’s try to make sense out of this.

1.       Sonia is sensing (and rightly so) a growing Hindu consolidation behind NaMo

2.       NaMo has usurped and monopolized two major electoral issues – Corruption and Development – ‘communal’ polarization remains Sonia last and only option

3.       With NaMo’s nomination now a mere formality, minority votes are certain to consolidate against him

a.       This cold calculation lies behind the abrupt hanging of Afzal Guru

4.       With minorities having no other option but the CONgress, preventing a counter Hindu consolidation has become Sonia’s top priority

5.       As diverse voting segments ranging from Sadhus to SRCC students line up behind NaMo, panic is setting in

6.       Afzal Guru’s abrupt hanging is a cynical ploy to run with the hares and hunt with the hounds

7.       It won’t work.

8.       The simmering anger that permeates across muslim ghettos is bound to rise

9.       Afzal Guru’s hanging will force a relook at accepted political equations: Muslims have only CONgress as a political option

a.       In areas where a Muslim party/candidate is a viable option (Assam, West Bengal), Muslim votes are likely to consolidate around that entity

b.      Here in lies an opportunity for BJP to upset CONgress’ apple cart by putting up a very strong Hindu candidate or make a calculated move to withdraw from the contest to allow counter Hindu consolidation around a viable Hindu candidate from a neutral political party like TMC in Bengal or TDP in Andhra

10.   Much as a panic stricken Rajiv Gandhi permitted Shilanyas at Ram Mandir to assuage growing Hindu anger over the Shah Bano fiasco, so has Sonia blundered by hanging Afzal Guru so close to the election

In trying to prevent a Hindu consolidation behind NaMo, Sonia has only fueled the NaMo juggernaut.

A Letter to Pink Chaddis

RE:  Ban on Vishwaroopam

Dear Pink Chaddis,

I write to you, not as a member of that much loved fraternity – the Internet Hindus, but as a fellow Indian and supporter of free speech.  Though we may harbor a diametrically opposing world view, we share much in common.  Support for a free exchange of ideas being one such tenet.

Before you jump on the ‘But what about M. F. Hussain’ bandwagon, let me assure you that most Hindus didn’t really give a rat’s behind what MFH painted. 

Our anger arose from the shear lack of reciprocal and proportionate outrage when a Da Vinci code or Satanic Verses is banned.

The hypocrisy in your selective outrage is what gets our goat.

Having said that let me get to the point.  Ranting against us Internet Hindus is a zero-risk project for you Pink Chaddis.  You know there won’t be any retaliation other than our often witty and always acerbic tongue lashing.  You can even leverage our reaction as a badge of honor to further buttress your secular, liberal credentials on the cocktail circuit.

As you wallow in this celebration of “oh, look how I showed those Sanghis their place”, keep in mind that a far more sinister and ruthless enemy is nipping at your heels.  He’s no longer a fringe presence, far away from your existence behind the haloed walls of Lutyens or cuffe parade or Bandra.  This enemy is preparing to tear down your door.  Rip it from the hinges.  In countries and communities across the world, once this enemy attains critical mass, there’s no turning back.  He will come for you.

Because, he’s not against what you do, he’s against who you are. 

Every belief you hold dear, every privilege you assume as your god given birth right, insults and strikes at the very foundations of his belief system.

Unless you’re willing to change every aspect of your very existence, from the clothes you wear to the food you eat, to the dreams you dream, this enemy will impose his beliefs on you.  And this imposition won’t stop at a ban on your thoughts.  It will strike at your very existence.  Either resemble him in all its ‘glory’ and obey his dictates or give up your existence.

This enemy has presented us with voluminous evidence of his intent.  This enemy has repeatedly shown the will to take this intent to its logical conclusion.  It’s a blood lust demonstrated across geographies, across communities.

Either be willing to be its latest victim or join your benign bête noire – the Internet Hindus.

Stand with us, sink our differences and fight this evil that threatens all that our ancestors have achieved and protected over millennia.

 

This enemy is relentless and only a united front can defeat him. 

Divided we fall.  But you will go first.

Yours truly

A Proud Internet Hindu