Consider the following (all incidents reported in the past 6 months):
1. Under US Pressure, Turkey refuses Pakistan's request for 30 attack helicopters
2. US has left Pakistan out of an online-only global conference of Heads of State on Climate change (A meeting where even little Bhutan has been invited)
3. President Biden has refused to call or in anyway interact with Imran Khan
4. And the incing on the cake. Chinese Foreign Minister on an official visit to Iran takes a jab at Pakistan, says "Iran is not a country which changes its foreign policy after a mere phone call"
5. UAE excluding Pakistanis from job opportunities in the emirates
6. Start of construction of 1st Hindu temple in the Arab world
7. France has banned the burqa
8. A Muslim couple was refused citizenship in Switzerland when they refused to shake hands with govt officers
Considered in isolation or superficially, these discrete, independent events seem trivial at best. But add a little context, place them in a broader frame and a startling picture begins to emerge.
That of Pakistan's eventual demise as a viable nation.
There are several threads converging to destroy Pakistan.
To understand these threads we must begin with the biggest single variable - Islam.
Pakistan was born with a fanatical belief in Islamic supremacy. Its people, military and political leadership were brainwashed into believing that the age of Islam was upon us and that Pakistan would not only execute on Gazwa-e-hind but lead the broader Muslim ummah to the promised land aka - global conquest.
Nothing explains Pakistan's instincts and its reflexes better than this delusion of Islamic supremacy. Every decision, every response, every action is filtered through the prism of Islam. Unsurprisingly, Indian Muslims harbor the same instincts.
Coupled with this unflinching belief is another, even crazier delusion - That Islam is a religion of peace. Both delusions feed on each other - "Islam is superior - it must be imposed on non-muslim, but Islam is a religion of peace i.e. muslims are peace loving and are thus always under attack, even when they impose their draconian beliefs on non-muslims".
Throughout its 1400 year history, Islam's influence has ebbed and flowed. But for the most part it has triumphed. The Christian world successfully prevented Islam's rise in Europe thanks to an equally fanatical belief in White Christian supremacy (thats a different topic).
1400 years of almost continuous conquest would convince even the most reluctant skeptic. And so Islam has been able to attract and retain followers - albeit largely through a reign of terror.
What muslims in general and Pakis in particular have failed to detect is the sea change affected by a) the Industrial revolution and b) the Information revolution.
Pace of social, political, technological and industrial change witnessed in the 20th century has been unprecedented. Communism, Nazism, colonialism have come and gone and Muslims have viewed this endless churn as a failure of non-muslim societies - further reinforcing the delusion of Islamic infallibility.
Not surprisingly what muslims failed to understand are the fundamental shifts driving this churn.
The past 100 years have witnessed more change than the preceding 1000 years combined. Almost every nation has been touched by this progress. Even the poorest regions of India and Africa are marching towards an improved standard of living.
Pakistan has been the exception to this rule. Its steadfast adherence to a 7th century system which celebrates the afterlife at the expense all joy, happiness and freedom in this life has meant that its standard of living has slipped with the pace pf decline accelerating over the past 2 decades.
The question often asked is why this change has bypassed the muslim world. Even in nations enriched by petro dollars.
One has to only look at the pictures of pre-oil Iran, Afghanistan, Turkey and other Islamic nations. The ruling class in each of these Islamic countries were westernized and working towards suppressing their populations' Islamic instincts. Islam was in a state of stagnation if not out right decline.
Oil interrupted this progress. Arabs affected a faustian bargain and traded Islamic reform for billions in oil wealth.
Part of this bargain was to redirect Islamic supremacist forces away from the Arab world. It was only partly successful. Whereas dictatorships and monarchies and vast fortunes kept the Islamic monster under a tenous control in the Arab world it exploded across the world. With the AfPak region as its epicenter.
In addition to Arab oil, America's war with the Soviet Union added an additional support structure to the survival and perpetuation of Islamic supremacy.
Demise of the Soviet Union eliminated this pillar, leaving global dependence on Arab oil as the only factor forcing the world to tolerate Islam.
That brings us to the current state of Global attitude toward Islam.
In a nutshell: Non-muslims the world over are simply fed up with Muslims. In Western societies, muslims are barely tolerated thanks to the over sensitivity of Whites to being branded 'racist'. But outside the west, whether in (now) large parts of Europe such as Poland and Russia or China and India, non-muslims see Islam as a major stumbling block to progress and prosperity.
Elon Musk and Tesla may have dealt a death blow to Islam. One that will be studied a 100 years from now. By forcing the rise of energy alternatives, Musk and Climate change advocates have raised the spectre of the end of fossil fuels.
(American invention of fracking, discovery of new reserves off the Brazilian coast and other regions further diminished global dependence on Arab oil)
Economic collapse in the Arab world is now a real possibility. Without social reform and basic freedoms, much needed investments will circumvent the Arab world.
The recent softening of relations between Saudis and Israel should be seen in this light. Arab leadership has always been sagacious and they certainly see the writing on the wall.
Burgeoning populations in the Arab world coupled with a stagnation in oil revenues and drop in job creation is a recipe for revolutions. Revolutions which will make the 'Arab Spring' look like a footnote in history.
Another factor worries Arabs. That of ethnocide via demographic invasion from those who Arabs do not count as 'true' muslims i.e. Muslims from the Indian subcontinent.
Much as article 370 stripped Kashmiri women's domicile status and other rights upon marrying a non-kashmiri, the Arab world has imposed an ban on Arab girls marrying non-Arab men. Even if they happen to be sunni muslims.
This ban has now been extended to Arab men marrying non-arab girls.
The fear is dilution i.e. Arab culture will survive thanks to the spread of Islam but Arabs themselves stand to go extinct and become an ethnic minority in a decade or two.
The Indian sub continent now houses over 650 muslims. Most of them 'dirty' Bengalis, UPites, Keralites, etc. Imagine if this Muslim ummah exercises its rights to the Arab lands. Who will stop them. Both doctrinally (Islam doesnt believe in national borders) and logistically a free movement of Muslims along the green crescent (extending from Arab world to Indonesia) cannot be opposed.
These factors bring us to Pakistan. Pakis never miss an opportunity to remind the Arabs that it was Pakistan which helped the Arab world establish its many institutions - providing much needed expertise, labor and leadership - PIA helping set up many Arab airlines is cited as a great example.
As the only nuclear power in the Muslim world (Iran is still in stealth mode) Pakistan has always fancied itself as the defacto leader of the Muslim world.
More importantly, Pakistan has fed its people on this myth. Speak to a Pakistani for even a few minutes and this arrogance leaps out of their deranged arguments with little prompting.
Rarely will you find a Muslim from any other country speak with such delusions. They may express faith in the eventual triumph of Islam but few if any will share Pakistan's supremacist delusions.
This delusion manifests itself in tangible actions, some of which have shocked the world. The harboring of Osama Bin Laden for 8 long years being one of them.
These actions have served to convince Pakistan's friends and foes that Pakistan has brain washed itself beyond a point of redemption.
When even Arab leadership has succumbed to evolving global reconfiguration to befriend Israel, Pakistan's internal mullah lobby has vociferously vetoed any attempt at even acknowledging Israel.
Namo and his brilliant brain trust have accurately dissected these intermingling forces within the Muslim world are now on the verge of pushing Pakistan off the edge and into a free fall.
Their brilliance stems not only from the deft handling of competing strains but from their understanding of the broader regional repercussions of Pakistan's eventual demise.
Covid may prove to the be the final straw. As nations around the world are working together to serve each other and their respective populations, Pakistan has been left out.
The few vaccines received are woefully inadequate. Pakistan's economic dependence on charity of their main sponsors makes it almost impossible that Pakistan could join the global economic recovery. It is likely that Pakistan will remain a covid hotspot which in turn will result in its exclusion from International travel.
Internally, Imran Khan is a failed experiment. The Military is now facing direct assault on its credibility. The almost monthly revelation of the eyebrow-raising wealth gathered by its generals and their progeny in America and Europe has helped erode their credibility as the protectors of Pakistan and Islam.
This erosion has resulted in even smaller, militarily weaker nations like Malaysia now giving pakistan the proverbial finger. Malaysia, for instance, grounded PIA's aircraft for unpaid dues.
Pakistan's economic collapse may be a few quarters away. It is argued that most of Pakistan's economy is 'informal' which insulates it from broader economic downturn. While it may not deliver spectacular growth, an outright economic collapse is averted.
Its a fair argument but recent events suggest it may have its limit. After publically refusing to do any business with India, Pakistan is now importing cotton and sugar from India. One of Pakistan's only exports is apparel. Without cotton, Pakistan's precarious export economy could take a hit.
Such desperation indicates that Pakistan's options are narrowing. Pakistan has 3 sources of income: Exports, remittances and the begging bowl.
Remittances are primarily from expats working in the middle east. As the Arab world closes for Pakistanis, these have started stagnating.
Exports will take and even bigger hit in the post-covid world.
With even China choosing to walk away from Pakistan, the begging bowl will run dry.
A discredited Army, an angry America and an Allah that scares the world - Pakistan's 3 pillars are on shaky ground.
As Cold War 2.0 takes shape Pakistan is desperately attempting a reset. But having been China's bitch for 2 decades - publicly declaring its undying love for all things China - this attempt is only serving to reinforce Pakistan's unreliability as an ally.
If Pakistan can harbor Bin Laden, it wont hesitate to stab China in the back either.
China's $400 Billion deal with Iran should be seen in this light. Pakistan has now dropped below nuisance value.
In a technologically advanced world, a people wedded to a 7th century ideology is not only unwelcome, it is a beast to be feared.
As India becomes central to the outcome of Cold War 2.0, Pakistan's value further diminishes. Only China needs Pakistan to keep India in check. But what use is a weak, beleaguered, deranged Pakistan. Even China's wildely successful economy cannot carry the burden of 220 million impoverished people.
Wars are won with economic strength as much as military prowess. Pakistan has neither. It is now an international nuisance and a pariah.
When a freshly minted American President refuses something as trivial and rudimentary as a phone call, you know the world has given up on Pakistan.
So what happens next?
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