To say the world is going through unprecedented times would be an obvious understatement. But the key question lingering over the world is the Biden administration, its approach to China and the broader implications for India.
A calculated guess is all we can make at this juncture. So lets attempt one.
Situation Analysis:
The world (including Uncle Sam) does not wish to vanquish or destroy China. The cost of such an all out conflict would be devastating to the global economy. Besides China isnt exactly Saddam's Iraq.
The West wants instead, to inflict enough damage so as to tame the Dragon into honoring a West-Centric world order.
No nation in the world has the stomach for an all out war (economic or military) with China.
India must recognize this limitation and frame its posture accordingly.
Ironically, within this global reticence lies India's greatest advantage.
Here's why.
Xi is making the same strategic mistake which is the hallmark of all leaders with delusions of grandeur: Not only does he want to usher in a century, replacing America as the preeminent global power, he wants to do it under his watch.
It was the same error committed by Osama and to a lesser extent by Kejriwal.
Patience is a rare quality, only a few leaders like NaMo and George Washington are blessed with.
China's aggressive posture with immediate neighbors and its debt fueled land grab across continents has engendered a deep fear across the world.
However, China's position both as a global consumer and supplier has bestowed an unprecedented leverage in the hands of the CCP.
Even at its Super Power Zenith, America did not enjoy such economic power.
Given these well known factors where and how will the new variable 'Biden' affect the dangerously poised situation at India's North-Western borders.
There's growing apprehension that the freshly minted Biden-Harris duo will pressure India on human rights.
Biden has 2 Muslims of Kashmiri origin appointed to his cabinet. Kamala was antagonistic towards India on the Kashmir issue and leading Indian-American leaders (Jaypal, Ro Khanna, Shama Sawant, etc.) within the Democratic party are virulently opposed to NaMo and his popular govt.
It was as if, Sonia's NAC was uprooted and rehabilitated in the Democratic Party. Nothing would please this lobby more than watching NaMo humiliated.
It wont take very long for their voices to grow louder. But India has 3 very significant points of leverage.
China, Climate Change and Obama.
In the immediate short term, India must play for time. China recognizes this and has begun upping the ante. The recent discovery of a village built on occupied territories of Arunachal and a road in Gilgit Baltistan is a sort of Chinese pre-war blitzkrieg to both provoke and corner India.
Biden was a compromise candidate. The democrates did not unite behind Biden. Instead they united against Trump.
The Democratic party is now a conglomerate of disparate interests. From the environmentalists to social liberals to LGBTQ to Islamists to feminists to.....
Their interests often conflict. Consider for instance Islamists Vs. LGBTQ vs. African Americans. Islamists want to kill gays and the Black Baptists want to condemn them to hell as preached in the Bible.
Similarly a deep, unacknowledged fissure now runs within the feminist movement to the extent where White feminists are being marginalized by African and muslim feminists.
There's also a growing anger amongst liberals for the pass given to Islamists on their blatantly misogynistic, anti-gay, anti-semitic positions.
Biden's public proclamations are going to be driven by these competing lobbies. India will be the obvious soft target. But Biden is a pragmatist and his actions will be dictated by American interests.
A deeply divided America will scrutinize every action. Particularly if American interests are compromised at the alter of domestic interests.
Biden will need a face saver
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