Saturday, July 16, 2016

The Modi Doctrine


"Modiji Badalgaye....PM Modi has changed."  "We asked for a Putin, we got an Obama".....even some die hard Internet Hindus have voiced similar sentiments in recent days/weeks.  Pathankot, Wani aftermath, lunch with Sharif.....the list of transgressions seem (in RW eyes) to be endless.  With little to show in terms of tangible progress on the ground.

The growing frustration perhaps says as much about Hindus as it does about the larger problem facing India in Kashmir.  Whereas both Christian and Islamic forces have taken a millennial view to their rein, Hindus, despite their ancient origins tend to be more short sighted.  But I digress.

To even the most deft international players with a strong economy and military to boot, Kashmir and handling Islamic terror would be an uphill task.  Just ask President Obama or the French Hollande.

Here's a list of factors PM Modi has to consider before he makes any move:

1. FDI and International investor sentiment
2. India's own Islamic population and the terror cells it most certainly harbors
3. Lack of dependable domestic military hardware suppliers
4. Global governments controlled by liberal leaders from Germany to France and the United States
5. China
6. Need to prepare for a two-front war
7. Pakistan/China's 10 year head start achieved under UPA 1 & 2
8. India's internal 'Aman ki Asha' 5th column
9. International Islamic sentiment for their brethren in Kashmir
10. A divided Hindu family
11. The need to deliver key promises for 2019
12. Demographic changes making Hindus a minority in key regions of India
13. ........

Given these constraints PM Modi has had to tread a thin line.  He's clearly executing a well thought out plan (and if impatient Internet Hindus would give him a chance they could see it come to fruition in the years ahead).

Task #1:  Isolate Pakistan within the Islamic world

Task #2: Leverage threat posed by China to its neighbors to create a strong coalition to maintain status quo on India's eastern border

Task #3:  Build a strong domestic military supply chain so as to significantly reduce India's dependence on foreign governments and their own strategic imperatives

Task #4:  Rebuild India's shattered economy so as to attract foreign investments which in turn would help create a global constituency of pro-India business leaders - from Jeff Bezos to Warren Buffet

No doubt sight of young Indian soldiers being butchered by Jihadi bastards makes our collective blood boil.  But it is a price India will have to pay to sustain a long term and (god willing) a permanent solution to the Kashmir problem.

As explained here - Pakistan is screwed - http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2015/06/pakistan-is-screwed-heres-why.html

There's no need to escalate a conflict with Pakistan (even a limited one) and bail Pakistan out.  

PM Modi's actions must be seen in the backdrop of these emerging variables.  By appearing to be 'friendly' and docile toward Pakistan, PM Modi is taking away Pakistan's biggest foreign policy leverage i.e. Portraying India as a regional bully 

Coupled with Pakistan's now well established credentials as a rogue terrorist nation, this docile attitude allows India to further hasten the process of de-hyphenation.

So my fellow RWingers calm down and support your PM.  He needs all the help he can get.  Trust him.




No comments:

Post a Comment