In 2003 in the run up the general elections, BJP won key state elections in MP, Rajasthan and Chattisgarh. The margins of victory were decisive. Buoyed by these results BJP's brain trust decided to advance the general elections.
The outcome of that general election is well known and too painful to regurgitate here.
As we celebrate a saffron dawn in the North East, BJP and its supporters must pause to reflect on what lies ahead.
It was a growing, confident BJP which finally pushed Sonia and her brood into swallowing their pride and reaching out to the 3rd front to forge UPA 1.
Needless to say we have come a long way from that debacle. BJP has learnt from its mistakes. The rapid reaction to Delhi and Bihar debacles is evidence of a more mature political entity.
What bothers me most are the eerie similarities to 2004. Like 2004 Congress was given up for dead. Regional satraps held an upper hand. PM Vajpayee's popularity and stature left everyone else in the dust.
It was the abysmal condition of Congress which finally pushed Sonia into reaching across opposition ranks to seek an alliance.
Congress made many concessions to gain a final agreement.
As we watch BJP strategists and sympathizers alike make the case for the improbability of an opposition alliance between competing egos and conflicting interests, we must remember that the primary objective of the opposition may come down to a diminished ambition i.e. not to gain power but to prevent BJP from coming to power or to have BJP come back heavily dependent on a rainbow coalition.
Anything short of a majority on its own would be a defeat for the BJP. Dependence on allies will dilute PM Modi's biggest USP - an uncompromising adherence to corruption free governance.
Imagine, for instance, Sena dictating terms in Delhi with a defacto veto over the central government. It as the same Sena that had a stellar performer like Suresh Prabhu withdrawn from the Vajpayee cabinet only because he refused to fill Sena's coffers by compromising his 'ATM' Power ministry.
BJP's sanguine strategists are celebrating the chaos in opposition ranks triggered by a laundry list of PM contenders. Kejriwal, Nitish, Amma, Mamta, Netaji, even Pawar - how could these frogs decide on a single leader - so goes the conventional wisdom.
The trick is that they dont need to. A host of localized alliances could do enough damage to bring BJP's tally down to 220-240. Enough to halt PM Modi's valiant attempts to place India on an irreversible path to prosperity.
Consider the 3rd largest state (in terms of LS seats) Maharashtra. BJP won a lion's share of seats thanks to the complete breakdown between Congress and NCP.
I have a distinct feeling that PM Modi engineered the break up by assuring Pawar immunity in return for a free run in MH.
(Note: Eknath Kadse's recent troubles may have a Pawar fingerprint)
If Congress-NCP renew their alliance, BJP's tally could easily come down by 5-10 seats.
Now extrapolate this scenario across Bihar, Delhi, UP, etc. and we have the makings of a hung parliament. Just what the UPA doctor ordered to re-energize dynasties across India.
Part 3: A few suggestions to counter and preempt these scenarios and win the war before it is fought
The outcome of that general election is well known and too painful to regurgitate here.
As we celebrate a saffron dawn in the North East, BJP and its supporters must pause to reflect on what lies ahead.
It was a growing, confident BJP which finally pushed Sonia and her brood into swallowing their pride and reaching out to the 3rd front to forge UPA 1.
Needless to say we have come a long way from that debacle. BJP has learnt from its mistakes. The rapid reaction to Delhi and Bihar debacles is evidence of a more mature political entity.
What bothers me most are the eerie similarities to 2004. Like 2004 Congress was given up for dead. Regional satraps held an upper hand. PM Vajpayee's popularity and stature left everyone else in the dust.
It was the abysmal condition of Congress which finally pushed Sonia into reaching across opposition ranks to seek an alliance.
Congress made many concessions to gain a final agreement.
As we watch BJP strategists and sympathizers alike make the case for the improbability of an opposition alliance between competing egos and conflicting interests, we must remember that the primary objective of the opposition may come down to a diminished ambition i.e. not to gain power but to prevent BJP from coming to power or to have BJP come back heavily dependent on a rainbow coalition.
Anything short of a majority on its own would be a defeat for the BJP. Dependence on allies will dilute PM Modi's biggest USP - an uncompromising adherence to corruption free governance.
Imagine, for instance, Sena dictating terms in Delhi with a defacto veto over the central government. It as the same Sena that had a stellar performer like Suresh Prabhu withdrawn from the Vajpayee cabinet only because he refused to fill Sena's coffers by compromising his 'ATM' Power ministry.
BJP's sanguine strategists are celebrating the chaos in opposition ranks triggered by a laundry list of PM contenders. Kejriwal, Nitish, Amma, Mamta, Netaji, even Pawar - how could these frogs decide on a single leader - so goes the conventional wisdom.
The trick is that they dont need to. A host of localized alliances could do enough damage to bring BJP's tally down to 220-240. Enough to halt PM Modi's valiant attempts to place India on an irreversible path to prosperity.
Consider the 3rd largest state (in terms of LS seats) Maharashtra. BJP won a lion's share of seats thanks to the complete breakdown between Congress and NCP.
I have a distinct feeling that PM Modi engineered the break up by assuring Pawar immunity in return for a free run in MH.
(Note: Eknath Kadse's recent troubles may have a Pawar fingerprint)
If Congress-NCP renew their alliance, BJP's tally could easily come down by 5-10 seats.
Now extrapolate this scenario across Bihar, Delhi, UP, etc. and we have the makings of a hung parliament. Just what the UPA doctor ordered to re-energize dynasties across India.
Part 3: A few suggestions to counter and preempt these scenarios and win the war before it is fought
1) lot more alliances by BJP, bigger NDA. (eg: Assam)
ReplyDelete2) split opposition camps, split their vote and mislead their leaders and supporters. eg: (Ajit Jogi - Chgarh)
3) bribe opposition - second rung leaders to underperform. eg: (MP)
4) use IB and other Govt agencies to play havoc inside opposition party structures. eg: none yet, but try (INC/AAP/Mahagatbandan)
5) create a good enough RW ecosystem to compete with present MSM/LW intelligentsia. (eg: SM++++ and more in conventional platform LIKE TV & Newspapers)fill the govt insti positions with loyal RW/RSS/VHP people. not Arun Shourie likes...
These are good suggestions. But as Khadse episode illustrates, BJP has its own skeletons.
ReplyDeleteall parties have skeletons, one's flaws are no different than the other. all is fair in love and war, so playing a dirty game should never be off limits! how do you think INC sustained power so long?
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