JNU and the First Muslim PM of India

Outrage, anger, rage.....a deep rooted desire to kicking some anti-Indian ass.  As the anti-national fired raged at JNU most commentators got caught up in the issue itself.  But none seem to have noticed the elephant in the room.

From calling for independence for Kashmir, the JNU types have graduated to demanding 'azadi' for West Bengal and Kerala.  Kerala???  When did this happen?

Another question kept cropping up.  How is it that a motley crew of anti-nationals manage to drump up so much heat and dust?  Granted Indian media is in bed with every anti-Indian force on earth, but given that a BJP govt with control over Delhi Police controls the capital and JNU, where did this audacity come from?

A simple variable explains the anti-national storm witnessed at JNU and that is Demographic Change.

By almost every independent estimate, most urban centers across India will have close to 30% Muslims within the next 15 years.

Ghettoisation of Muslims will not end anytime soon.  With such a concentrated presence, Muslims could influence close to 200-250 seats by 2030.

That kind of leverage will most certainly raise the demand for a Muslim PM.

Given these emerging trends, it is likely that the first Muslim PM of India is currently in his twenties.

Though most BJP supporters have rejoiced over the emergence of Owaisi brothers as they cut into 'sickular' votes, the long term trend their go-it-alone strategy insinuates should worry every Indian.

When yours truly first suggested the inevitability of an 'Islamic Republic of India', many a reader mocked at such a possibility.  Given the new found aggression of Muslim politicians and their brethren the real miscalculation may be in suggesting that such a reality will be upon us around the mid-century mark.

It is in fact likely to happen between 2030 and 2040.

As West Bengal and Kerala are showing us, Muslim population doesnt need to cross the 50% or even 40% mark.  30% seems to be the magic tipping point.  With tactical, enmasse voting 30% vote bank gives every politician a massive head start over his/her rivals.

By 2025 Indian politicians will offer soft Sharia to Muslim majority areas.  By 2029 these areas may be carved out as separate states and by 2040 a Muslim PM may be the only way to keep India as a single, undivided nation state.

Demographics influence destiny like few other variables do.  With human population exploding from 2 Billion to 7.5 Billion in less than a 100 years, demographic invasion as a weapon is only a recent phenomenon.

And India is not the only country facing this time bomb.  For instance, 50% of student is state run schools in Brussels are Muslim.

If Islam achieves its green crescent by 2050, its world domination is a certainty.  Two counter forces may trip this triumphant march.

1. Climate Change
2. China

As the tiny island state of Maldives has shown us, entire countries could be whipped out of existence as Climate change becomes irreversible.  Densely populated cities such as Miami are facing a catastrophe within the next decade with rising sea levels poised to destroy everything from the sewage system to fresh water acquifiers.

Islam's triumph may represent a pyrrihic victory at best.  With uneducated and unskilled global population unable to counter effects of climate change leading to massive displacement, forced migration and economic hardship.

China is rapidly converting to Christianity.  Even the most conservative estimates peg Chinese Christians at 100 million with some estimates suggesting a 300 million mark.

China understands the threat Islam poses to its largest province - XinJiang.  It has tried to win peace by making Pakistan a client state, heavily dependent on Chinese economic and military largessee to survive against a rising India.

But if India comes under Muslim rule, this enemosity will lose its raison d'etre and Pakistan and India could easily join hands to forment trouble in XinJiang to rescue their Muslim brethren.

With such a possibility within a foreseeable horizon, China could do play a double game to fragment Pakistan if it can simultaneously weaken India.

With such scenarios not unthinkable, PM Modi remains India's only hope - If and only If he wins a second term.

The foundation he has begun installing will take time to bear fruit.  A strong, economically and militarily strong India could force an alteration of International borders and slow down the rising Islamic tide.

PM Modi is our last hope.  Hope his followers realize that.

The Impotence of Rajdeep and his Tribe

"You damn reactionary, uncivilized, uncouth, primitive, dehati, Hindus".  "Grow Up".  "And btw, yes I'm an anti-national.  Deal with it".

Liberals have a shocking record of railing at Hindus and all those who they consider to be beneath them. There's a subtle class warfare at work here.  If you werent born into or educated at the right institution you're instantly considered an outcast.  

There're ways to break into this 'elite' club of liberals.  Abuse all things Hindu and now (post NaMo taking over as PM) all things Indian.

A similar dynamic is at play in the West with Christianity and America the 'great satan'.  

Bill Maher the American satirist has, over the past 4-5 years, taken his fellow liberals to task on one glaring liberal hypocrisy:  The singular absence of even a rudimentary critique of Islam or Islamism.

This peculiar combination of hatred for all things Hindu and love for all things Muslim is particularly amplified in India.

Media coverage is saturated with calls for Hindus to be tolerant and reformist and 'modern' but not a word is mentioned asking for reform in Islam which is increasingly slipping toward a sharia controlled 7th century existence.

Most commentators are well aware of this contradiction.  But what explains it?

Fear induced Impotence.

Abusing Hindus generates little or no real backlash.  Outrage on social media or trolls being trolls is hardly the monster it is made out to be.

The real monster is when a mention in an exam paper can get your arm chopped off or a cartoon generates a terror attack.  

So how do you appear 'rebellious' without risking life and limb?  How do you thump your chest and claim you're fighting for liberal principles?  How do you feign outrage at the shrinking liberal space at your next black tie affair?

You attack ideologies whose followers will tolerate your nonsense.

But the real monsters? You leave them alone.  Infact you go a step further and claim that said monster doesnt exist.

Every liberal from Rajdeep to Mrs. Akshay Kumar have written about the great tolerant India without mentioning Kamlesh Tiwari.  The same Kamlesh Tiwari who triggered a series of demonstrations and riots across India by suggesting that Prophet Mohd. was gay.

Given their long standing support for gay rights and atheism, defending Kamlesh Tiwari should have been a natural, almost instinctive liberal response.  But his incarceration has elicited no such chest thumping.  No cries in defense of his 'freedom of expression'.

But why pile on liberals alone, some may argue few right wing Hindus are willing to grab this bull by the horns.

There's a difference and it is this: Hindu Right wingers dont go around calling themselves 'anti-national', or tolerating calls for destruction of India just so they can claim to be courageous or progressive or....secular.

Communism - the Godless Islam?

What horrified Indians have witnessed at JNU over the past week is a common phenomenon across Democratic nations around the world.  The only difference being the blatant anti-nationalism displayed by students at JNU.

Indians are finally coming face to face with something right wingers have known for decades.  Communists, liberals and other lefties are in bed with Jihadis.

On the surface this seems like an unlikely alliance.  Communism abhors God and religion.  The founding fathers have gone to great extent to question God and all things related to the very concept of God.

In all fairness, Communists have been equal opportunity offenders, displaying the same contempt for all religions.

But in India they have always followed a policy of appeasing Islamists and opposing Hindus.  And since the demise of Communism, Communists have turned on America and the West with same duplicity and venom, aligning themselves with Islamists at every opportunity.

How can two ideologies so diametrically opposed coexist and become codependent.

The superficial explanation is 'enemy's enemy is a friend'.  But that explanation ignores a startling similarity between the two doctrines.

Communist nations were famous for destroying native cultures.  Music, culture, movies were severely curtailed to the point where great nations with rich cultural traditions were turned into dry, gray colorless, morbid versions of their former selves.

Russia, China, Cuba....you name the country where communism took root and I'll show you a desolate, wicked place where life became a dry, living hell.

The ruling elite were exceptions to this reality.  They enjoyed holidays at sequestered locations where wine, women and song flowed freely.

Many a Communist leader harbored a large harem of his own.  A flavor of this hypocrisy can be witnessed within the ranks of India's own Maoist movements.  Where women are treated as concubines and exploitation of the poor by the ruling elite is a common practice.

Communism also believes that one book, one doctrine trumps all.  Nationalism is a four letter word and ideology transcends all national and cultural boundaries.

Now replace the words Communism and Communists with Islam and Muslims and notice how the concepts are interchangeable.

Apart from Allah, Communism and Islam are identical.

It should not come as a surprise that they have now found a common cause - the defeat of democratic, free societies.  In America it is America democracy and Christianity and in India it is Indianess and Hinduism.

There's a silver lining to the ominous cloud.  Communism was defeated largely due to its own innate contradictions.  Communism was unnatural, inhuman and alien to basic human nature.

Islam is heading for the same fate.  No religion/doctrine that restricts the human spirit and forces it into a straight jacket can survive forever, no matter how lethal its contemporary appeal may appear at a given moment in history.

Mumbai Vs. Bombay

Mumbai is a city...but Bombay is a feeling. 

Unless you have lived in a cave for the past decade, this meme has shown up in your social sphere at regular intervals.  On the surface it seems like a wish by a diminishing minority desperate to retain that last semblance of their last remaining identity within a city they have called home.

Personally, I have grown up with mixed feelings vis-a-vis this issue.  "What's in a name?" you may argue, but in India a great deal.

The support for the two names stems from two fundamental sources.

Mumbai:  Supported by the native sons typically Maharashtrians and Gujaratis.  Both languages use Mumbai and not Bombay in their lexicon.

Bombay:  All those opposed to Shiv Sena along with communities who consider themselves the 'original' residents of this great city.

Over the years I have personally veered towards 'Mumbai'.  And their's a very important reason for that.

Dig deeper into the antecedents of those passionately devoted to 'Bombay' and 9 times out of 10 you will encounter an individual who secretly wishes India was still under British rule.

The argument often thrown by Bombayites at Mumbaikars runs along these lines:

"We turned this fishing village into the glorious city it is today".

Not surprisingly this is precisely the argument put forth first by Mughal loving Pakistanis and British loving Indians vis-a-vis India as a whole.

It is their firm belief that Indians/Hindus were a barbaric tribe, who were saved by their respective progenitors i.e. Mughals and the British.

A localized version of this argument is peddled with Mumbai. 

Surely, it has taken a collective effort to build Bombay into the city it is today.

But this argument ignores the yeoman's service rendered to Mumbai and Maharashtra by the local population and by Shiv Sena in fighting and destroying leftist unions who were poised to turn Mumbai into a second Kolkotta.

But the Bombay mindset of 'British Indians' fails to acknowledge this socio-political ecosystem which allowed Mumbai to thrive.  Instead it harbors a not so subtle 'Brown Sahib' syndrome.

This syndrome stems from a deep rooted inferiority complex - Indians are inferior to outsiders.  Primarily to the great British who gave us civilization and turned us into a civilized people.

It is for this reason that key princely states such as Goa and Hyderabad refused to join the Indian union.  

It is not coincidence that these communities are greatly under represented in both India's freedom struggle and in the Indian armed forces.

It was the absence of these communities from cities such as Chennai and Bengaluru which allowed the renaming of those great cities to go through without a whimper or a protest.

In the 21st century there should be no room for anti-British sentiments.  'Mumbai' is not about hating the British.  But 'Bombay' is most certainly about self-hate.

The eradication of this self-loathing is key to our rise as a people willing to join the world community as equals.

Bombay represents an inferiority complex, Mumbai serves as an anthem for a resurgent India.

Tackling Pakistan - Part 2: A Permanent Solution

What do 1948, 1965, 1971, 1999 have in common?  On each of those occasions India conclusively defeated Pakistan on the battle field, in some instances captured Pakistani territory and ended up surrendering hard won victories for little more than paper assurances like the Simla Agreement.

Surely Indian leadership should shoulder some of the blame but one cannot ignore the fact that world powers played their part in allowing Pakistan to get away with ....well....murder.

Any future conflict with Pakistan, limited or otherwise, must be a decisive one.  India should aim to destroy Pakistan once and for all.

China, USA, Russia in that order do not want Pakistan be permanently destroyed.  In the big power game Pakistan's remarkable geographic position (a shared border with or proximity to) 2 of the 3 big powers and Iran and the middle east, represents a unique opportunity.  Control Pakistan and you can gain leverage over a 3rd of the global population and two of the biggest markets.

Throughout those earlier conflicts India has been militarily and economically dependent on world powers.  One big factor in preventing India from opening additional fronts during the 1999 Kargil conflict was the not so subtle pressure exerted by CEOs of major MNCs.

India's economy was (and continues to be) vulnerable to long term damage inflicted by a prolonged conflict with a nuclear neighbor.  FDI would disappear and remain out of reach if mission critical back office operations of firms such as GE and Citibank were under threat of military conflict.

More importantly, with India importing almost all key military hardware, foreign powers could easily cripple India's war effort by delaying (if not withholding) delivery of critical spares for fighter jets, submarines, howitzer guns, etc.

Clearly these constraints played an important role in forcing India into surrendering decisive military victories and accept an uneasy detente and death by a 1000 cuts.

Another major factor which has emerged over the past 20 years is the increasingly overt posture taken by China.  Indian military establishment has been forced into preparing for a two front war.  

Faced with a scenario where Pakistan is being overrun by Indian forces, it is quite likely that China will open a second front on India's eastern border.  Even a limited engagement would render India in a very difficult position.

Two more variables make PM Modi's task much more difficult than most of his followers are willing to understand.

The Gujral Doctrine destroyed India's covert operations within Pakistan and set us back 20 years.  Even a casual observer (such as yours truly) of international affairs knows that such an infrastructure, behind enemy lines, with deep ties to strong assets takes decades to develop.  Trust is hard earned and easily diluted.

The other factor that any Indian govt. would need to consider is the vast network of covert operatives put in place by ISI during the Sonia years.

It is a well accepted fact that the ruling party in India's largest state is soft on ISI for muslim votes.  They have allowed a free run to India's enemies to establish a strong presence within key Indian states, in close proximity to India's military assets.

The attack on Pathankhot was merely a glimpse into India's vulnerability on this front.

In a nutshell, India is hemmed in by world powers and exposed by the sins of commission and omission of its own political leaders.

A careful analysis of PM Modi and DM Parrikar's actions over the past 18 months suggests that they understand these constraints and are acting accordingly.

Their restraint is responding to Pakistan's continued betrayal should not be bucketed with the inaction displayed by previous Indian regimes.

So how is PM Modi different from his predecessors?

1.  PM Modi is working towards a permanent and decisive victory that will solve Pakistan for good.  By all and any means neccessary

2.  The world is now a very different place than it has been over the past 70 years.  Communism has been replaced by Islamism as the biggest threat to the world community.  Most westerners now recognize Pakistan's central role in birthing this evil into a 21st century existence.

This recognition presents a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for India to vanquish Pakistan out of existence.

PM Modi's bonhomie with Pakistan must be seen in this light.  It is for western consumption but make no mistake, the  PM's actions suggest he's preparing for a day of reckoning in a not so distant future.

3. Building India's military supply lines.
By making the manufacture of military hardware the cornerstone of his 'Make in India' campaign, PM Modi has signaled his desire to end or significantly diminish India's military dependence on foreign powers.  This will help in the event of a conventional war.  Pakistan's military and its economy cannot sustain an all out war beyond a 2 week window.

It is for this reason that Pakis rattle their nuclear saber at the mere suggestion of an all out war.  It is also for this reason that Pakistan has developed a large arsenal of tactical nukes to be used on the battle field.

4. Since taking power the NDA govt has displayed a new found urgency in destroying ISI's cells across India.  This is vital as Pakistan can use these cells to keep Indian forces occupied with internal trouble and open a second front across India.

5. Building a strong pipeline of FDI in Indian economy is another pillar in the emerging military doctrine.  If the world is heavily invested in India with key mission critical operations run from Indian soil.  Pakistan will face the added pressure not to use even tactical nuclear weapons.  PM Modi's appeal to Chinese companies to invest in India should be seen in this light.

This is precisely the strategy deployed by China which has helped it neutralize Western pressure and allowed it to escalate its 'salami' strategy with great success.

6.  PM Modi is playing for time.  A Europe swamped by radical Islam will be much more sympathetic to India.  Similarly, though Obama and any democratic successor will continue to harbor a soft corner for Pakistan, the American public is reaching its wit's end. Tired and frustrated with Islam and Muslims and ready to support any country which can put an end to the source of this evil.

With the Iran Vs. Saudi conflict evolving into a Shia-Sunni world war, playing for time makes much more sense.  Pakistan is bound to be sucked into this conflict.  If not explicitly than certainly implicitly with the participation of its own carefully nurtured 'non-state' actors.

Any suggestion that Pakistan is contributing to the success of Iran's enemies will open a new avenue for India (if it hasnt already) via the Iranian border and allow the escalation of support for an independent Baluchistan.

Iran's continued openness to India's involvement in key ports and infrastructure in lieu of China's help should be seen as an indicator of Iran's concern.  Iran doesnt want China to have leverage over it in the event of Pakistan following its Sunni instincts and working against Iran.

Given these factors, PM Modi is on the right track.  Revenge is a dish best served cold.  For the next 2-3 years, the best reaction is no reaction.  Let Pakistan provoke and annoy India.  India should remain focused on building and modernizing her military base.

Domesticate military supply lines, build a strong economy and allow the animals to kill each other.  Prepare for the opportune time.  

For destiny bows to the prepared and the patient.

Jai Hind.

Why Is Trump Winning?

Summary:

1. American Exceptionalism

2. This is an 'issues' election

3. A rebel ready to burn down the house (i.e. DC politicians)

4. A Straight shooter who can be trusted

5. Bernie Sanders the last Communist

Political correctness has become an ideology in and of itself.  What began as a genuine need to eradicate racial and gender biases from social lexicon has now taken on a life of its own.  No politician or public figure can dare to support a cultural, racial or religious stereotype much less call for a change to public policy based on the said stereotype.

But Donald Trump has done just that and gone a step or two beyond that point.  By questioning Sen. McCain's military service to his nation, Donald Trump has targeted perhaps America's most sacred institution the armed forces and the men and women who serve in it.

Despite his many politically incorrect positions, Trump seems to be going from strength to strength.

Conventional political punditry dictates that any politician staking claim to such 'extreme' positions should be a non-starter in a Presidential race.  For not only does he/she alienate those he has directly targeted but also those voters who find such statement abhorrent.  

Trump on the other hand seems to be gathering his own version of 'Reagan Democrats'.

Media pundits have been perplexed first by Trump's rise and then by his staying power.  There's a very good chance he will be the Republican nominee by June.

What explains this?  And more importantly can he win?

Most Americans believe that America is the greatest nation in the history of human civilization.  Having lived in this country for several years now, I tend to agree.  Despite its many short comings America is the most egalitarian, welcoming, open society in the world today.

One could point to the status of African Americans as a blemish on America's otherwise stellar record on human rights, but that too fails to acknowledge the significant strides made over the past century.

America isnt perfect, but it's always seeking perfection.

The large number of CEOs and political leaders of Indian origin are only possible in America.  No other country has rewarded immigrants like America has.

To most Americans, America and the values it represents - life, liberty and the pursuit of Happiness - is a religion in itself, albeit a godless one.

Similarly most Muslims (even the moderate ones) believe that Islam is the final word in religions.  It is the most perfect creation of God and the Islamic god is the only true god.

Islam unlike other religions is also a political doctrine in addition to a social and spiritual one.

When Europeans are confronted by the rock solid strength of these Muslim beliefs, they tend to cave in.  Present day Europeans have to live with a long history of grave crimes committed by their ancestors across the world.  From colonialism to slavery to genocide culminating with the Holocaust, Europe has its own baggage to answer for.

America is straddled with no such baggage.  Two of the top contenders in the Republican primary are sons of immigrants from south america.  The same people targeted by a foul mouthed Trump.  One is an African American who briefly became one of the front runners.

Surely no latino will vote for the Donald but his supporters dont see him as a racist bigot.  They on the other hand see him as a leader who will end the welfare state and serve American citizens first.

Americans are perhaps the only people who can confidently tell the world's believers that our system, our democracy is superior to Islam.  Our ideas and ideals are superior and based on that superiority alone we shall win this war.  And because our constitution is the greatest political document ever composed we will not bow down to any man or god made alternative.

In his very ham handed way, Trump has made just this argument for calling for the exclusion of Muslims from American society.

By saying "America is superior to Islam, it is better, our values are what the world should aspire to" Trump is addressing multiple concerns and feelings simultaneously.  

America is great, America is better and America has nothing to be ashamed of.  

And he will bring America back on the track to greatness.

A few days back CNN ran an interesting story on how Trump and Bernie are speaking the same language on key issues.  Though their remedies differ markedly.

As expected Bernie's suggestions are to the far left.  But Trump is proposing some interesting solutions.

For instance, Trump has an interesting solution for HealthCare.  He proposes the elimination of artificial boundaries imposed by the Health Insurance industry wherein a near duopoly exists in each state with a handful of Insurance players allowed to operate in each market.  Which in turns gives them total control over these markets.

If all 100 or so Health plans are allowed to complete in every market, the resulting competition could drastically reduce insurance rates and costs.

This is a practical and obvious solution.  But no Washington insider can pull it off as most are being supported by the deep pocketed Health industry.

Bernie and Trump are the only candidates without a Super PAC to back them - one raising funds from small donors and the other spending his own wealth.

With no strings Donald and Bernie can rightly claim that they can take a machete to these crony capitalist policies.

To put it another way, this is an issues election.  Personalities dont matter as much.  As long as Trump is perceived as being a no-nonsense politician willing and able to take the ax to DC's incestous cluster gang-bang, he will keep winning.

Bernie Sanders seems to be emerging as his likeliest opponent.  Which would be great news for the Donald.  Bernie is prescribing a medicine so far to the left that even Lenin may be rolling his eyes.

It simply wont work in America.  "Free everything" doesnt work because Americans are one nation that understands that there's no free lunch.

If you tax the rich too much they will pack up and leave the country.  And the constitution will not allow any government to prevent this exodus.

Trump is winning because he has understood that Americans are fed up.  Anyone willing to talk straight and propose practical (albeit controversial) solutions will have a real chance of winning this election.

The Hispanic and Black vote will desert the Republicans unless they nominate Rubio or Cruz.  But even then it may not get a critical mass of this segment.  

Trump may just consolidate the White vote behind him and win in November.

Will he be able to deliver on his promises.  Probably not.  But we're talking about him winning an election not governing effectively.

From 'Garib Kalyan Melas' to 'Garib Kalyan Yatras'

Much to the anger and frustration of die hard rightists, PM Modi has consciously avoided the cookie cutter approach to right-of-center governance.  Most reforms have been initiated in a stealth mode with little fanfare and celebration.

No major big ticket divestment, no real deviation from UPA's economic template.

This is precisely what was suggested here - http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2011/06/understanding-indian-electorate.html

And it makes perfect political sense.  Infrastructure, Ease-of-doing-business, Startup India, Make in India, are much needed initiatives but they come with an innate limitation:  Their tangible, politically significant impact will only be felt around 2021.

Depending on right wing economics alone will deposit the Modi government in a repeat of NDA1 i.e. 2004 where results ABV's stellar performance from 99-2004 was reaped by an incompetent and corrupt Sonia Gandhi and which played a significant role in reelecting UPA to office.

But two factors are limiting the Modi Administration.

1. Urban inflation is hammering BJP's core urban voters
2. Policies from Crop Insurance to Food security are being sabotaged by a corrupt bureaucracy and a lack of awareness within the targeted communities

Inflation will need to be tackled on a war footing (more on it in a future post).

But the issue of awareness should be tackled like a mini-election campaign.

Gujarat BJP's most effective program was the 'Garib Kalyan Melas'.  Central BJP should launch a similar campaign at a national level 'Garib Kalyan Yatras'.

The Modi govt. has now implemented a viable set of initiatives which can perceptibly impact voters' daily lives.  From Jan Dhan and LPG subsidies to Crop insurance and health insurance.  

In other words, BJP and NDA now have enough to talk about and celebrate.

The logistics should be similar to what was used during 'Ram Janam Bhoomi' campaign.  Multiple Yatras initiated from different directions, culminating in a massive 2-day rally in Delhi to be attended by the Modi Cabinet.

The Yatras should be led by Young Indians (preferably non-political).  The idea should be for the yatra to spend a few days at key stops to educate people on Modi govts. policies and educate voters on how they can exploit these policies for their benefit.

Additionally Yatras should distribute goodies to the needy.  Wheel Chairs to the poor, prescription eye glasses, etc.  Same as was done with Garib Kalyan Melas.

Campaign should also have a social media element so that supporters can track, support and promote the yatras as they wind their way across the country.

Hope PM and BJP President think along these lines.



  

Muthalik, Dadri, Rohith....wash, rinse, repeat!

It was 'Deja vu all over again'

In the run up to the 2009 elections an NDTV crew lounging at a pub in Bengaluru in the afternoon hours found itself fortuitously in the middle of a ratings bonanza.

It was their favorite villain the Hindutva warrior beating up some youngsters  over drinking and enjoying themselves.

As was to be expected the story was run on a loop, 24 x7 till the accepted version was etched into the minds of the viewers "Hindutva = regressive, draconian social order.

As always, BJP and in particular their PM Candidate LKA were late to react to the ruckus.  A befuddled BJP stumbled over themselves, not sure if the main accused 'Muthalik' was one of them.

Was Muthalik a part of the larger Sangh parivar?  Would criticizing Muthalik put them in RSS' bad books?

As the paralysis dragged on, supporters of BJP such as yours truly watched in rage as it became increasingly evident that the entire episode had been stage managed to malign the BJP and the broader Sangh parivar.

It was designed to alienate the youth and women's vote.  And to a certain extent it work.

A second objective was to prevent a deep and wide discussion on the performance of UPA 1.  Both objectives were achieved as the airwaves were saturated with cries of 'Ram Sene' and 'Muthalik'.

As every attack on PM Modi has backfired the Pseudo Secular Industrial complex has resorted to this tried and tested strategy - first at Dadri and now with Rohith.

Once again the truth has been obfuscated and an attempt has been made to paint BJP as a regressive anti-social party.

As with any political strategy it has entered a phase of diminishing returns.  But it would be dangerous to think that these contrived controversies wont have a lasting effect on the BJP.

Much as muslims were alienated prior to the Bihar elections using Dadri, Rohith could be used in other locations - Bihar and UP.

One key difference is that media has lost all credibility.  A pre-Radia NDTV was able to hurt BJP in 2009.  That is unlikely to happen now.

But we must be on the guard to ensure that whenever such a story is peddled by the media, the counter attack on social media must be swift and overpowering.

Most importantly BJP must create a standard response template of its own when events such as Malda or Pune burning of a Hindu teen happen and media chooses to ignore them.

From Tuktuki in Bengal to Rathod in Pune, BJP and the Sangh has been woefully weak and lethargic in its response.  It was their social media supporters who forced them into sending a delegation to take up this issue.

Most importantly the response came weeks after the event when the fires had died down.  Instead BJP needs to develop an rapid response team which can attack the media on these issues so that the plight of Hindus is highlighted and puts pseudo seculars on the backfoot.

This one strategy will help even the political battleground.

It is a necessary condition to defeat Congress-AAP's evil designs - but will it be sufficient.

PM Modi - From David to Golaith

A little examined and understood dynamic behind the rise and eventual triumph of PM Modi was the public perception he fostered of a one-man-army against the forces hell bent on destroying India and Hindus.

In his quest to rise above retail politics and appear Prime Ministerial he may have relinquished this hard earned and well deserved reputation of being the Hindu David against a secular, corrupt Goliath.

As I have suggested in a few previous posts (see 'PM's Dilemma') this was a natural progression given the complex set of constraints under which the PM has had to operate from the outset. 

This is not to suggest that he has forfeited this great political asset for good.  But if things are allowed to drift his foes could dilute this asset if not permanently reverse it.

Before we explore avenues of recovering some of this lost ground, let us first examine why it was diluted to begin with.

Explaining the ostrich like quality of European liberals and liberal political leadership Ayaan Hirsi Ali once furnished an insightful theory:  Only those Europeans who have to live with Muslims on a day-to-day basis can understand the anguish of having to curtail one's god given freedoms.

Almost every urban center across India is facing a not so silent Islamic demographic invasion.  In areas where Muslims have traditionally faced little to no resistance, Hindus are being marginalized and rendered as refugees in their own land.

Kashmir is being repeated across India.  Hindu women are being raped, Hindu men beaten up and subjected to threats to life and property at the drop of a hat.  Even traditional Hindutva strongholds like Maharashtra are no longer immune to this rising evil.

Moreover, a clearly compromised media has become an enabler of this silent Jihad.  When Hindus are victims as in Malda or Pune, media completely ignores the incident and buries it.  When Hindus retaliate media and their secular handlers effortlessly turn the knives on Hindus and paint the entire country as 'communal', 'fascist'.

The core BJP voter had hoped that the election of PM Modi to the highest office would help address these issues.  At the very least a Hindu govt. would give Hindus a fighting chance in their own land.

But not much seems to have changed on the ground.  Coupled with high prices, continuing urban decay, entrenched 'retail' corruption and govt. apathy, even the core BJP supporter is finding it hard to buy into the promise with which PM Modi was elected into office.

To be fair, we have only just completed 20 months of his govt.   A wide range of path breaking initiatives have been set into motion.  From Jan Dhan and Mudra Bank to Agri insurance, these initiatives are bound to usher India into a decades long hyper growth trajectory and lift hundreds of millions of Indians out of poverty.

The fear expressed by a number of PM's core supporters is that these benefits may not be visible in time to positively influence the outcome of the next LS elections.

As I have pointed out since before the PM took office that he has 36 months to deliver on key promises.  Now the fear is that this may not happen and 2019 would be lost before the war is fought.

This fear may yet be premature.  PM's initiatives have begun to show up in GDP projections.  Most importantly a global meltdown in commodities will serve as a tremendous boost to India's manufacturing sector.

But the twin variables of time and a rapidly uniting opposition could hurt the PM in a big way.

So how can the PM remedy this situation. 

Delivering on the Hindutva agenda:

A Putin or a Trump can give the world a finger but even these leaders of very powerful nations cannot go completely off the reservation and speak the language of an Yogi Adityanath or a Balasaheb Thackeray.

India is still heavily dependent on foreign nations for a vast variety of key inputs from nuclear fuel to modern weapons.  

PM Modi can ill afford to anger Western nations with a hard edged Hindutva agenda.  Most importantly an electorally significant number of non-Hindus voted for him and he must occupy the centrist space to prevent a anti-BJP Christlamist consolidation.  

Given these constraints how can the PM deliver on his Hindutva agenda.  

Enter Dr. Swamy.

Clearly these two Hindu warriors have agreed to a Good-Cop-Bad-Cop division of labor.  PM Modi plays the Good cop and delivers on his development agenda while the Bad Cop Dr.  Swamy goes after all the core (albeit controversial) elements of BJP's agenda.

While this is working well it may not be enough.  A much larger, broad based effort needs to be instituted.

As suggested in this post - http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2016/01/how-to-take-back-kashmir.html

BJP needs to develop a non-Sangh Parivar Hindutva outfit which can carry out the Hindutva agenda through legal and constitutional means.  

For instance, such an organization could lead an effort to reclaim temples destroyed and desecrated in Kashmir over the past 30 odd years.  

Such an initiative galvanizes all the Hindutva forces.  It focuses on a positive agenda and reemphasizes the rising tide of Islamic extremism spreading across the world. 

It simultaneously neutralizes pseudo secular forces as any opposition to such an initiative will quickly unmask them and force them to take sides making them combatants in a politico-cultural war. 

By keeping this project within a constitutional and legal framework, BJP can prove to its core supporters that it is striving to achieve a concrete objective i.e. the eventual return of Kashmiri Hindus to their homes.

Most importantly by taking a proactive approach, it pushes BJP out of the reactive mode in which it currently finds itself.

Hope the PM and his party are listening.

How To Take Back Kashmir

Every year Kashmiri Pandits take over a small corner of Delhi to express their anguish and silent rage over the genocide that turned them into refugees in their own land.  Non-KPs use KPs as a stick to beat pseudo secular media and politicians with.  

Very little happens beyond these annual slug fests.  KPs and Hindus go back to curling up in a fetal position as they watch that smug smirk return to the faces of their tormentors.

But some (or a large part) of the blame for their conditions rests with KPs and Hindus themselves.  This is not an attempt to blame the victim.  In all these years of sharing the anguish of our Kashmiri brothers not once have I seen a concrete proposal presented beyond the usual "What is the government doing to get us back to Kashmir"?

What follows are a few practical suggestions that may help kick start a conversation and perhaps get KPs thinking on a different strategy.

1. Stop calling yourself Kashmiri Pandits and start calling yourself Hindus

Let's face it, if you restrict your identity to a region and a caste, the perpetually navel gazing non-Kashmiri Hindu is unlikely to feel a sense of compassion for your state in life.  If on the other hand you present yourselves as the first Hindu victims of a demographic Islamic Jihad that is coming to every neighborhood across India, KPs are likely to attract a much wider more support.

2. Recapture Temples in Kashmir

Every war needs a beachhead.  A Normandy.  Hindus have been pushed into a war and this is Kashmir's Normandy.  

Any drive to reestablish Hindu Temples by repairing and rejuvenating them is bound to attract a vicious attack from pseudo seculars and their Jihadi handlers.  And that is precisely the response we should hope for.

This strategy corners enemies of India into a no-win situation.  If they dont oppose it, KPs establish a toehold in their homeland.  If they do, Hindus can raise a Ram Janmahomi (RJB) style crusade to galvanize Hindus from across India.

This campaign will need government support.  But because it entails Hindus taking back what is theirs to begin with, there can be no legal, ethical or moral argument against it.

Both central and state govts will need to offer logistical support for this effort.

3. Recalibrate Return of KPs into a larger campaign

The Return of KPs should stop being merely about the return of KPs.  It should be about Hindu asmita, about the survival of Hindus as a community, about basic, fundamental human rights.

As long as Kashmiri Pandits make this only about themselves, they will be stymied by an apathetic Hindu ummah.

4. Insinuate the Ethnic Cleansing of KPs into the national discourse on Secularism

Launch a nationwide campaign to educate every Hindu spokesperson to make this wretched chapter in Indian history as the focal point of any discussion on secularism. 

They utter 'Dadri' every Hindu spokesperson should respond with 'but what about Kashmiri Hindus'.

'Godhra' - same response

'Kamlesh Tiwari' - same response

Ethnic Cleansing of KPs should become the war cry to corner and shame every sickular.  The plight of our Kashmiri brothers should be ingrained into the psyche of every man, woman and child across India so that we dont forget and more importantly raise future generations to become aware of the fatal danger posed to India by unbridled Islam.

Hopefully this will soften the opposition to their return to Kashmir and allow us to gain a toehold in Kashmir.

These suggestions wont ensure the return of Hindus to Kashmir.  But they are a starting point.  They are a concrete strategy beyond the annual spectacle of complaining and wailing over a horrific crime against humanity and forgetting once the cameras are turned off.

Tackling Pakistan - Part 1: Understanding the mindset

The single biggest question confronting the world vis-a-vis Pakistan in particular and Islam in general is this:

How do you defeat an enemy who does not share the same set of values and ideals as any rational human being would.

Even the most uneducated and underprivileged societies share the same basic goals:  A better life.  A life filled with dignity, prosperity and a better future for their children and grand children.

Most muslims share this goal as well.  But only upto a point.  If asked to chose between material wealth, a better quality of life and Islam, even the most educated of Muslims will chose the latter.  Some may do so out of fear of social ostracism but a vast majority will chose Islam above all else.  Even the safety and future of their children.

Survey after survey conducted across Islamic societies reveal this ugly truth.  Ofcourse the anecdotal overwhelmingly supports this theory.  For Muslims Islam trumps all.

This unflinching love for a primitive, tribal doctrine breeds a value system which is at odds with a post-religion, rapidly unifying 21st century Global village.  A core tenet of this emerging global village is tolerance and acceptance of contrasting belief systems.

Even educated and prominent Muslim journalists such as Medhi Hasan believe that non-Muslims are animals and inferior to practicing Muslims.

Perhaps Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu put it best "Nazis believed in the Master Race, these Muslims believe in the Master Faith".

To put it mildly, this is a head case where hundreds of millions of rabidly religious people not only crave a 7th century existence but want to drag the rest of the non-muslim world back with them - kicking and screaming, dead or alive.

One could argue these being doctrinal differences should have little to no impact on India's dealings with a professional Paki Army.

But dig deeper into the Paki mindset and some startling truths become obvious.  The Pakistani doesnt care if his nation prospers or even survives as a unified entity.  Their raison d'etre is the decimation of India.  

The average Paki is bitter every time India is celebrated from sports to bollywood to software.  Much as the average Muslim hates America and resents the prosperity achieved by the West.

The thought that most haunts Muslims is this "How can these infidels with their bikini clad women and their monkey gods be smarter and more prosperous than us - the true believers".

Every day that the infidel prospers is a middle finger to the religion of peace.  His very existence is an affront to Islam and its sociopolitical belief system.

It is this mindset that drives Pakistan's India policy and unless we address this mindset we can never defeat Pakistan.

It is this mindset that makes Muslims view concessions less as a peace offering and more as a incremental surrender.  One step closer to Darul-Islam.

Along with this love for all things Islamic, lies another dangerous misconception.  That no matter the odds Islam will prevail.  That Islam is unstoppable and one day mother Earth will have the rule of Islam.

I have spoken to highly educated Muslims, raised in liberal non-Islamic societies who share this belief.

There's some basis to this belief in Islam's inevitable triumph. Demographic change will have Islam as the largest religion by 2050.  If current growth trajectory continues vasts parts of the world will have sizable muslim constituencies.  At the 25% mark, Islams begins to exert itself in most societies.  Kerala being a great example of this phenomenon.  Even the draconian measures adopted by China in XinJiang have failed to arrest the rise of Islamism.

The twin evils of an uncompromising belief in an outdated sociopolitical religion and belief in its eventual triumph lie at the heart of the crisis of Islamism facing the world today.

In Part 2 we will examine the options available to India given the staggering constraints left at our doorstep by historic mistakes and miscalculations.

Bullet Train and the need for Retail Politics-of-Development

A fundamental human trait across cultures is to resent the rise and prosperity of those we consider to be our equals.  Indians seem to be particularly susceptible to this failing.  This is to be expected given the many fissures that exist within Indian society - caste, language, class, region, etc.

It is no wonder that India's political class has fine tuned the art of exploiting these fissures and ensure their continued hold over power regardless of their record in governance.

As arguments against the recently announced Bullet train between Ahmedabad and Mumbai have swirled across social media one is left with a sense of deja vu.  Leftist politicians have jumped on the proposed project as sharks on red meat.  Sadly, their empty rhetoric has the potential to register across India's impoverished voting classes.

Mumbai has become unlivable.  In almost any city around the world a $1MM apartment would come with all the necessary amenities. Square footage may be high or low, but features such as 24x7 power, clean roads, clean 24x7 water supply, parking spaces, parks and recreational facilities within walking distances, perhaps even a water front location, would be par for the course.

Nothing of the sort is available to any Indian citizen in any Indian city at that price point.  The crux of this situation is that if the rich cannot take such amenities for granted, what chances do less fortunate Indians (which is the vast majority) have of securing that elusive 'Indian Dream'.

Given this reality, any Govt. project perceived as being 'Elitist' brings with it the potential to irreversibly damage said govt's standing with the long disenchanted voters.

Laloo (aka Kejriwal 1.0) once exploited ABV's national highways by painting it an elitist project "as the poor dont own cars".

Kejriwal 2.0 and his sickular brethren across India are likely to exploit India's first Bullet train as just another project conceived and executed by an 'elitist' PM for his rich friends.

Despite his noble intentions, PM Modi is not merely walking into this trap he's cruising in, at light speed on the Millennium Falcon.

But the Bullet Train epitomizes a larger flaw in NDA's Politics-of-Development.

To be absolutely clear, his development agenda is spot on.  This is precisely how a nation's tattered and hemorrhaged economy should reconstructed.  From the ground up.

Please refer to the Appendix section on how the Bullet Train will bring exponential growth to the region and reduce the pressure on Mumbai.

As I have argued in previous posts this approach reposes faith in the hope that benefits accrued from this approach will 'trickle down' to India's poor i.e. the voters.

Even if this approach works and these temples to capitalism should drive much needed employment creation, a sizable section of India's poor in other states will be primed for exploitation by Sickulars with a tried and tested slogan "Bullet train for the rich and peanuts for us".

Moreover, if more pressing problems such as inflation and farmer suicides remain unresolved, this class warfare could assume serious heft in the run up to 2019.

There's no harm in building an economy from the ground up, but the PM must run a parallel effort to address the retail issues affecting Indians.  Issues they encounter on a daily basis - Inflation, crime, educational and job opportunities, etc.

Granted, these are not issues a PM can solve.  But a polity raised on Political dynasties who have turned Indian democracy into an periodically exchangeable aristocracy, this reason wont cut much ice.

In the mind of the average Indian, "We voted a PM with a massive majority, why can he do for us what has been done for the select few".

It is this mindset which has allowed the Laloos of the world to come back from political oblivion.  It is this mindset that PM Modi should focus on or else we may be staring at Priyanka-as-Rani-Laxmibai come 2019.



Appendix:


Before we examine the political fall out of this project we need to understand why a Bullet train is the need of the hour and not a luxury as opponents of PM Modi are painting it.

Housing:

Mumbai already ranks the the most densely populated and one of the most polluted cities in the world.  A collection of 7 island has simply run out of space to expand.  Skyscrapers can easy this pressure but it cannot alleviate the immense load the constant influx of new migrants puts on Mumbai's already precarious infrastructure.

One way to ease this pressure is the make more space available.  But space sans proper, modern amenities is a non-starter, as people and businesses would hate to move into locations which lack basic aforementioned amenities.

The bullet train now opens up Ahmedabad and a number of stops between Ahmedabad and Mumbai as possible avenues for both residential and commercial real estate.  

This additional supply of space will likely reduce prices in Mumbai but most importantly affordable housing could be within reach of India's growing middle class.

A sub-two hour commute coupled with modern amenities would allow Mumbaikars to consider setting up residence in Gujarat.  It would considerably ease the pressure on Mumbai.

Expanded across India, Bullet trains could ease pressure by converting cities within a 2 hour radius of major metros into satellite towns.

Safety:

With a modern rail line accidents should be a fraction of fatalities witnessed on highways.  For instance, Indian highways in particular are notorious for allowing live stock (among other culprits) to stray onto the highway increasing the risk of fatal accidents.

A high speed rail line would reduce the risk of accidents for the same number of people transported.

Speed/Capacity:

With an average speed of 300 Km/Hour and most trips accomplished within 2 hours, the number o f people transported should be considerable more than a super highway between the 2 cities.

Some have argued that a super highway could achieve the same objectives at a fraction of the cost.

But highways and bullet trains need not be mutually exclusive.  Most importantly Highways are bound to add to the growing pollution destroying India's air quality.  

Once constructed, Railway infrastructure requires a fraction of the cost to maintain as against a world class super highway.

Pollution:

As long renewable energy sources are used to power (even partly) the bullet train, the carbon footprint of this mode of transportation should be far superior to any land (or, air, water) based  alternative.

Proof of Concept:

The Bullet train would also serve as a 'Proof of Concept' for similar lines to link larger cities - Mumbai-Bengaluru, Delhi-Lucknow, etc.

Job Creation:

Bullet trains would generate direct employment, but the potential to create indirect employment opportunities in real estate, tourism, etc. would dwarf almost any other single initiative pursued by the current administration.

How to Prevent 'India Shining Part Deux'

During the heated campaign for Gujarat in December of 2007, the enterprising folks at NDTV sent a hard-nosed report to a remote corner of Gujarat to verify a staggering claim being made by CM Modi - "24x7 uninterrupted power".

With Dr. Prannoy Roy in the studios the NDTV reporter was broadcasting live from outside a small, barely lit neighborhood shop.  Approaching the shop keeper, the reporter - with barely concealed smugness - asked him why his shop showed no signs of the much tom-tom-ed 24x7 power.  

The shop keeper reached behind and over his shoulder and flicked a switch.  As the tube light flickered to life the reporter asked the shop keeper why he did not keep the lights on.  His response "I have to pay the bill, this power doesnt come free".  As the NDTV team collected their respective jaws from the floor, Dr. Roy could muster up a limp retort "expensive power" or something to that effect.

The ensuing election was fought on a mixture of development, Gujarati Asmita and Hindutva in that order of importance.

18 months of NDA tenure seems to suggest that PM Modi has settled on a similar strategy for 2019.

As explained in a previous post (http://inflextionpoint.blogspot.com/2015/10/india-shining-part-deux-and-why-we.html) this strategy comes with inherent risks.

1. India is not Gujarat
The Gujarati shop keeper may be grateful for 24x7 power supply and may be more than willing to pay the bill but Indians in other parts of the country, fed on a steady diet of state largesse may not be so enamored with assured power supply if it comes a a steep cost.

Team Modi seems to have anticipated such a scenario.  Conversion of Indian power consumption to LED based light bulbs are but the start of an effort to bring down per capita consumption so that the inevitable high costs of generating and distributing power can be rationalized so as to ensure zero net impact to the consumer.

Even Jan Dhan accounts and direct deposit of subsidies may have a limited impact if prices remain high (more on this later)

BJP needs to understand the mindset of voters outside Gujarat before they reach a point of no return.

2. Time
As an International banker pointed out last week, PM Modi is taking a long term view and eschewing the temptation to take short cuts so as to install a strong foundation upon which to construct a truly vibrant, dynamic and friction-less economy.

Noble and appropriate as this path may be, it ignores the emerging political realities and perhaps the single biggest constraint faced by the Modi Administration i.e. Time.

As pointed out earlier, though completely necessary for India's long term economy well being, initiatives such as Make-In-India are unlikely to bring strong political dividends in 2019.  Simply because most new ventures are unlikely to have a meaningful and visible impact on India's economy in time for the election season which should commence around Oct 2018.

PM Modi had 36 months to deliver on major initiatives so as to allow people enough time to imbibe the benefits of these goods and services and be willing to associate them to the NDA in run up to 2019.  The PM and his team are doing great on some and not so great on others.

Controlling prices is one area where NDA has come up short.  Way short in public perception.

Price Rise:

Mr. Nitin Gadkari (easily the top 3 performing Ministers in the Modi Cabinet) came up with a lame defense on price rise.  "Prices of some items have fallen and others has risen".  This simply wont cut it with the common man.

If the govt. carries on with this 'item(s) of the month' philosophy toward price rise, people will come to permanently associate high prices with the NDA govt. at the center.

Even local price fluctuations will be dumped at PM Modi's door step and that is when the 'Suit boot ki sarkar' will stick like a 3M adhesive.

Moreover, failure to control prices will make new highways and other infrastructure improvements look like gifts created by the Modi Government for enjoyment of the rich.  

Congress and their media assets are likely to have a field day if even one daily necessity is out of reach of the poor in the run up to 2019.

As events of the past months have shown us, commodity markets can be manipulated with great ease.  A formidable industry has come up which survives on creating artificial scarcity of basic necessity so as to make windfall profits out of the misery of the common man.

No amount of flag ship successes on the infra and industrial fronts will mitigate the anger and rage engendered by high prices.

In India there are two political certainties - Caste and Prices.  NDA can tackle one but not both.

NDA's current strategy is pushing them into a cul-de-sac where they can get hit by a Price-Caste double whammy.

The Solution:

Given these constraints and the limited time at PM Modi's disposal what should be the Government's strategy going forward.  Firstly, there should be no let up on the remarkable work being done by various ministries.  This work will provide India with a strong foundation.

But to succeed in 2019, PM Modi must reverse engineer the pitch.

a) Identify the basic needs of the population i.e. Every day food items, Daily challenges (transportation, water, etc.)

b) Rapidly create infrastructure to bring prices of these items down to a level where they never become a political issue

Controlling prices:

Prices are driven by a basic interaction between supply and demand.  The NDA Govt. should build temperature controlled warehouses to store basic items of daily consumption - Onions, potatoes, Dal, wheat, etc.

These warehouses can and should be constructed on Railway lands close to major Railway lines.  Which in turn would make the shipping of these items both economical and time effective.

With most major rail hubs supplied with ample power through a national grid, power should be readily available to this 'cold chain'.

A national team could monitor local prices of these commodities on a daily weekly basis and inject the necessary supply as and when price spike so as to rapidly bring them down.

A big deal should be made of the this national cold chain so that people can directly associate this key infrastructure initiative directly to the PM.

Even 40 years later, people associate Indira Gandhi with India's progress.  As flawed as this perception may be, one must applaud Congress' marketing savvy in creating and perpetuating it.

NDA has much to learn from the Congress in this regard.




..... to be continued

Bihar and the Elephant in the Room

26/11 - That date is etched in the memory of every patriotic Indian.  The ensuing anger seemed to be as much directed at Paki pigs as it was towards Indian rulers who had left India vulnerable on all sides.

That Congress and her allies would face the music in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections was a given.  Even the usually smug presstitutes wore a downcast look across their collective faces.

Not only did Congress handily defeat the BJP across India, but what shocked native Mumbaikars such as myself was the fact that Congress-NCP was able to sweep Mumbai.  Surely MNS cut into opposition votes but the truth remained that South Mumbai witnessed one of its lowest voting percentage (at 43%).

It was an important lesson in understanding the complex psyche of Indian voters.  The nation reelected exactly the same bunch of crooks and anti-nationals.

Needless to say, that watching Bihar elect the convicted Char-Chor who destroyed Bihar over a 15 year reign wasnt a huge surprise.  What was surprising was the magnitude of BJP's defeat.

As BJP supporters recover from Bihar's shocking results, it is important that both BJP and its supporters draw the right conclusions.  For only the right insights will lead to effective solutions.

Followers of PM Modi have come up with a host of reasons to explain the Bihar debacle.  Foreign travel, Soot-Boot, ignoring Social media supporters, cow politics, Dadri, Award Wapsi, arrogance, lack of progress on black money, etc.

But none of these explain the rout.  This is not to suggest that these werent contributing factors.  They were but not to the extent where they would dictate electoral outcomes.

As it happened in Delhi so in Bihar, BJP's vote share remained close to what it polled in previous battles at the hustings.  What changed was opposition unity.

Opposition unity is the 'Elephant in the Room'.

(Note: In run up to 2004, it was a despondent Sonia who gave up her smug arrogance to reach out to opposition stalwarts.  A terribly weakened Congress eschewed 'ekla chalo re' and forged a solid UPA to defeat BJP)

However, opposition too gives us only a partial explanation for the massive mandate against the BJP.  To properly understand BJP's defeat one must first delve into the psyche of the much maligned Bihari voter.

You may be surprised to find that he isnt too different from the Indian voter.

So what drives the typical Indian Voter.

Self defeating Intra-Indian Competitiveness:

According to an old Harvard tale, a graduating class of MBAs were asked to select one of two options.

Option A:  You get a job that pays $90K but your friend gets one that pays $100K
Option B:  You get a job that pays $70K but your friend gets one that pays $60K

A startling 67% selected Option B.

Though this strange phenomenon is a common human condition, it is greatly amplified among Indians.  Surely if such a survey was conducted on graduating IIT or IIM graduates a 100% would select option B.

All kidding aside, caste, regional, communal and linguistic differences have greatly amplified this 'crabs in a well' trait among Indians.  Witness how young Dalit men are beaten up for celebrating life events (weddings, birthdays, etc.) in a socially ostentatious manner.

Arun Shourie narrated an interesting anecdote in one of his speeches two years ago.  Annie Beasant was asked what differences she noticed between Irish, Scottish and Indian freedom fighters.  Her response:  "Indians cannot work together".

Winston Churchill came to a similar conclusion.  I have personally noticed this dynamic play out within Indian Diaspora in America.  When two Indians come from different states they quarrel over which is better, when they come from same State, they quarrel over different regions within that state, when they come from same region of the state it usually gets down to caste, and so on.

Given these divisions, Hindu unity is a mirage.  It occasionally emerges to create an impact but that emergence is ephemeral at best.

It shouldnt surprise readers of this blog that caste allegiance is far stronger than allegiance to a common Hindu identity.

A vast section of upper caste Hindus much rather preserve the caste system than dilute it to yield Hindu unity.

India lacks a Hindu party because India lacks a Hindu Vote bank.

Laloo, Mulayam, Maya, etc. are products of this caste dynamic.  Even if these leaders are barred from participating in elections, others will emerge to fill the vacuum.

If a Laloo is swept back to power, the reasons behind this are simple.  He represents a giant 'F You'' to non-Yadavs.  Much as electing a corrupt Mayawati was a giant 'F You' to non-Dalits.

These groups will continue voting their caste no matter what development PM Modi brings to their door step.

If Hindu Mumbaikars couldnt vote to punish facilitators of 26/11 attacks why are we surprised that Biharis have voted their respective castes.

The question then arises how do we solve this riddle.  The opposition has found PM Modi's achilles heel i.e. Opposition Unity.  We must find a way around it.

Fortunately we have the time to take corrective action.

BJP may be tempted to take a conventional political route to address this challenge.  But molly-coddling

Solution:  Dilute hold of caste loyalties by bribing specific economically backward groups and replace caste with class.

It is impossible to erode an entrenched caste system that has prevailed for over 2000 years.  Instead bring economically weak sections from each caste under one umbrella and design programs that benefit them within 18 months.


Indians demand a two fold response from PM Modi

a) Give us tangible, visible returns on our political investments

b) Punish those who have looted our wealth

a) Tangible Results:  Direct Action i.e. Garib Kalyan Mela

PM Modi's heart is in the right place.  It is necessary condition for winning 2019 but not a sufficient condition.

Here's how NDA's development strategy works:

Clean up the system > Create a policy driven state and build vital infrastructure plus skilled workforce to attract investors > Investors will then set up manufacturing and service industries > which in turn will create jobs > Raising income levels of poor Indians > will raise their standard of living turning them into enthusiastic voters.

This is classic trickle-down-economics.  Even in highly efficient economies with limited friction, trickle down economics takes years to bear fruit.  In an highly inefficient, moth ridden Indian economy, benefits of economic expansions will take a decade to reach the intended recipients.

This is precisely what happened with ABV's NDA 1.  It was UPA 1 which reaped the political benefits of a robust economy which was bequeathed to Sonia thanks to ABV's exceptional work.

ABV received nothing but scorn from the marginalized (albeit dedicated Indian Voter).

For instance BJP-Sena govt. built the Mumbai-Pune expressway which gave a massive boost to a number of industries along the corridor.  It had no discernible impact on voting patterns across Maharashtra.

PM Modi's policies are driving him into a similar cul-de-sac.  What is needed is a massive direct-action initiatives a la Gujarat's 'Garib Kalyan Melas'.

This is not to suggest that war effort launched on Infrastructure development should be slowed or stopped.

The poor, helpless Indian wonders how a Vijay Mallya can be let off despite squeezing banks to the tune of 1000s of crores but the govt. drags her feet when it comes to handing out benefits to defense personnel and the poor.

The two tracks arent mutually exclusive.  If worked in tandem they will help BJP make the case that BJP is pro-poor.

More ideas on this line of attack coming up in future posts.

b) Punish the Looters

This part will need to be handled deftly.  Sonia will react and react aggressively.  Besides as argued in previous posts, timing of launching this attack is of as much (if not more) important as the action itself.

The previous timeline of targeting Sonia around mid-2017 is still applicable.  But delaying it for too long would render the PM open to accusations of political vendetta.

Instead, BJP should begin striking at Sonia and her larger secular parivar by launching selective leaks.  Put Sonia on the back foot by forcing her to defend the Kripa Shankar Singhs and Diggy Rajas.

This will also keep Sonia's media occupied with find ways to protect her.  Which would give BJP more leg room to focus on governance issues.

Every month (or quarter) BJP should force a new scandal on the Congress.  If BJP wants to forgo use of Govt. entities, 'non-state' actors such as Dr. Swamy can be furnished with the requisite ammunition to launch the attacks.

Such public spectacles will reassure the public at large that PM Modi is working toward avenging Sonia's decade long looting spree.

PM Modi cannot address local harassment meted out by cops and babus to India's helpless poor.  But if he can take down the Sonias and Sharads, he sends a message to Indians on the lowest rung - "The PM is with you, I'm punishing those that treat you like animals"